Member Info for G_G_G

Nope the buy-out posts started with the recent M&A happening around us Vmax, which wasn't instigated by moi. As for my 'agenda' wrt a 25p t/o offer, well of course that's something I'd want to happen when the sp can't break 14p. What a f@cking stupid thing to say. Reckon it would be on most people's 'agenda'. As for 45p, well there's another example of a f@cking stupid thing to say.

Agree with most of what you've said Vernet. For a t/o I think it will need to be at least 25p to get all the major IIs on board. I can't see them saying no at this level. A cheeky bid of 22p would likely get thrown out by the bod and not even communicated to the market. I would hope any acquirer would at least put some feelers out to our IIs on what an acceptable bid looks like. Then it won't matter if the bod think we're under-valued and the offer will need to be communicated. I think Majid is quite happy to sit on his £600k salary for as long as possible so they need to side-step the bod and go straight to the real decision makers. Either that or make the offer publicly at the outset. A bid right now at +25p would be wonderful and put a lot of us out of our misery. AIMHO GLA

Hi Bank, I've had shg on my watchlist for years but never taken a position. To be honest it has never looked this stupidly good. Absolute conviction buy from me and I'll continue to add at these levels. There's also very few things that can drive the sp lower than this level. One would be the government losing its mind again. The other would be something happening that shuts down production at one of the mines. Country risk is the biggest threat as machinery always gets fixed. Even if gold weakens to $1900 the company will still be making a ton of cash at current production and AISC rates. I'm hoping it stays at / near $1950 for the coming months as I think the upcoming drill results combined with another great set of quarterly results will send this to 13-15p. It will be interesting to see what they do with all the cash being thrown off in 6 months. I think adding another ball mill, doubling the divi, and drilling the @ss out of all their tenements would be a good place to start. The ball mill will pay itself off in no time. Its pocket change really. A solid increase to reserves will add considerable incremental value and complement the ball mill investment. And the divi increase will make investors stickier while they're waiting for the extra production and reserves to be added. These things will re-value the company and provide it with a much stronger / more stable footing whilst it pushes WK along to production, which is probably a good 2-3 years away. Anyway, that's my take. As I said I love this company as a t/o target as well. I think a bid of 20p could likely get accepted, which would be an absolute bargain for the buyer. AIMHO GLA

Tony, it would be good to get your thoughts on the numbers. I'm not sure the conversion is as high an +$1bn but it's certainly a lot higher than our current mcap. It seems they have paid well over the odds based on other acquisitions in the past 12 months. Hopefully we'll get our bid soon. I'm sick of us being so under-valued.

Yeah I'm not so sure. Looks like some kind of transfer.

So you know I bought 750k the past 2 days between 10.1-10.3p so have mopped up a few shares. I was going to wait until I hit my target of 1m to declare my position to the board but I'm confident it'll happen down here without too many issues.

Crazy to think shg was worth more when it didn't have a second mine, gold price was lower, and had significantly less resources and reserves. The country risk also isn't as bad with Tanz. The only reasonable explanation is Odey finishing off its 1% or so, which is the very reason I've been buying. I've seen funds having to offload positions in the past and its incredible how much damage they can do to the sp when needing to liquidate. The benefit of shg is it has never been on a more stable footing so the value disconnect is significant.

Fwiw I think the WK drilling results will likely clear out the remaining seller(s). And the next quarterly results will be when a proper step-up to 13-15p will occur providing the gold price is still above $1900. At this juncture the company should show additional production gains and I imagine will be net debt neutral. I'm looking for somewhere between 15-18p in the next 6 months with 100k production @ +$1900, a maiden resource estimate in WK and mining license application, additional reserves in Tanz, plus a net cash position. If gold price stays above $1900 for the next 2 years then I believe this will be 2-3 current mcap as I think they'll be able to take on WK themselves.

I also like the fact it's a t/o target. Very cheap bolt-on for a major African miner or Chinese outfit. Unbelievable value for a low cost producer with 10-15 years of +100k production, and $60m EBITDA run rate. In a t/o situation we're worth double current sp, and that would represent an absolute steal for the buyer. AIMHO GLA

SP and momentum looking strong here. If we can break above £500m mcap there's not much resistant until we get to £600m mcap (£5). One decent piece of news and we could find ourselves there quite quickly.

Completely sold out of this dog today. Happy to get 2.40p for my last 350k this morning. I have no idea what comes next here so the risk is simply too high. I lost somewhere between £40-45k on my 2m shares. Another African clusterf@ck for my record. Good luck folks. If the coin flip turns up the ESIA then 8p is definitely on the cards. If not then who knows. Can't see the company collapsing, but there could be a very dilutive raise required to keep the lights on whilst paying GC and those local 'consultant' salaries. Raise will be required in the next month or two so hopefully the permit lands before-hand. GLA

West, thanks for your response. The big question to the board, which I'm struggling to estimate, is where do we think our net debt position will be sitting at the end of FY23...? It was the right thing to do in kitchen sinking the H1 results. That left us with circa £430m net debt. Now we have done a capital raise since then, but a large part of that was eaten up by financing costs. They have estimated £200m 'driving change' profitability benefits to realize in H2. And have quoted £150m cash inflow and £40-60m EBIT. So where does that leave us netting out? I'm no accountant but I'm struggling to see how our position could be better than £250m net debt at year end - thoughts...?

Interim results have net debt at £432m. Really need an accountant to work out what they've effectively written off and what goes back to the bottom line when sold. It would be good to get a discussion on this topic from some of the more informed posters. The way I see it this is the main barrier to investing here given mgt are clearly very confident in £40-60m EBIT for H2, costs are decreasing, margin increasing and macro improving. But if we have a few hundred million pounds of net debt YE2023 then it's going to take some time to clear. Thoughts welcome.

As for insulting people, the comment is to stop doughnuts like Karl replying.

this is for one of the more knowledgeable posters - where are we at the moment on our net debt position? i'm finding it v.difficult to assess post h1 interim results given the write-offs, capital raise etc. i'd greatly appreciate a run-down with numbers from one of the non-bull****artists on the board.

Tony, I like the tax pools angle and to be honest I like Provident if they can find a way to acquire without massive dilution. I was suggesting a share swap given it often results in less dilution providing both companies are valued in a fair and equitable manner. There's not a lot of reserves, but they have decent oil production, and the tax pool is massive. It would mean paying no taxes for 5-10 years depending on O&G prices, which is incredible. The other thing I like is it would naturally provide a much larger Canadian shareholder base in the combined company, which should help in getting us to average Canadian peer multiples. The cash we'd be throwing off would be significant and easily finance dividends, plus organic production growth. And the combined debt would be minimal for +25kboepd with significantly higher liquids production. It's a great move imo providing we don't get our pants pulled down with dilution / valuation in any deal. AIMHO GLA

Completely agree the way forward is part government ownership. Get the EISA sorted for an up-front payment for 25% of the project. The environmental argument is covered by the government being able to say they won't let anything bad happen as an owner. I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the Moroccan angle all along. Good thing is financing then becomes a synch as it means only 75% for eml, of which a large part is already agreed. Nice to see us settle back above 2p. Reckon the bottom is £20m mcap. We could be down here for a long time so probably best to settle in.

I think the issue, as I read it in the interview, is there has to be an 'appeal meeting' first. And, they don't know when this will occur - it could be in the next couple of weeks, or another month or two. I imagine the '30 days' deliberation then falls out the back of this meeting. One thing asfaic is our useless ceo and mgt team better provide an update on when the meeting / hearing for us is being held. That is absolutely price sensitive information. At the moment these pr!cks are being paid to stick their heads in the sand and pretend they don't have shareholders.

Just making its way to £500m mcap, which has been the main resistance for a couple of months. If we get past this figure there's a short pitstop in the mid 400's then we're up to 500p quite quickly. I have no doubt the next trading update will be on guidance, and most likely better than expected. Come October I can easily see us at £6, especially given what we've seen in Ocado. Fundamentally this is a stronger company with a stronger balance sheet. I imagine some rulers are being run over us right now. Starting bid price will be £10.

Mgt need to buy some shares. And by mgt I mean our useless ceo. F@cker has made an absolute mess of this news and if he wants the market to believe this project is still alive then he needs to front up some of the salary we've been paying him. Simple solution really. Otherwise the sp will continue to decline.

I agree tax loss pools bring a different angle to any acquisition, especially if you're throwing off a reasonable amount of cash. Providence is certainly interesting for this reason only. Production is f'all. And they have more debt than us. Perhaps a stock swap / merger could work? It would mean less dilution as we wouldn't get our pants pulled down to the same degree by the IIs / funds. And it would help solve our Canadian liquidity issue as Providence's share register would be primarily Canadian. Otherwise stick to oil heavy organic growth. AIMHO GLA

Mariog, thanks for the links and your thoughts. Funny as I mentioned the other day that JPM and PM accumulating could be bottom buying, or it could be they've been given a nod for a t/o offer and accumulating on behalf of the would be acquirer.

SP not doing much as usual as trust / confidence is pretty much shot so an opportune time for a bid to land for any buyer. I'm certainly hoping for a t/o offer to land. Anything in the 20's would be lovely. GLA

Tony, what are you trying to say exactly? I could easily point to the sp being 50% higher in a lower price oil environment when the divi was aggressively bumped and being paid monthly. Since they cut it the sp has fallen to as low as 11p and we're only clinging to 13p with poo at $80. So I'd say the divi has been a pretty important part of maintaining both value and income for us shareholders.

Would be good to understand why you feel we've been consistently under-valued versus peers and how best for this to be corrected. It's not commodity prices because they effect all O&G producers and the disconnect still exists. You've heard my pov on trust / governance being the on-going issue and Majid / mgt putting their hands in their pockets to directly address the disconnect.

The irony is that when poo falls back in the coming days we'll no doubt fall back with it. I also agree with Jolly and Vernet on excess cash being used to increase production. I'd then want them to re-look at the divi in 2024. Buybacks shouldn't be used to compensate for a lack of trust in mgt, which is the only answer explaining why we've been continuously under-valued versus peers. The way to address this particular problem is our over-paid ceo continuing to put his hand in his pocket until the disconnect has been corrected. Majid can talk all he likes about our true valuation, but he's yet to address the problem creating it. It's a simple fix and he even gets to make more money from us. It's just the shares won't be the giveaways that he likes, but still incredibly cheap. AIMHO GLA