Member Info for G_G_G

Guys some of these estimates are f@cking ridiculous. I'm glad there's a lot of people that are thinking this way as it's why some companies have 'gamestop' moments, but for us to get beyond £12 per share in the next 12 months is completely unrealistic. The simple reason for this is that firstly it's unlikely the market will assign that much value (more than 3x current mcap) on an additional 3 quarters of turnaround evidence where the headline is limited to 'we're profitable'. Plus the macro isn't going to improve that much over this period of time. Plus there's no company initiatives that will result in explosive growth in such a short time period. And even in the unbelievably unlikely event that some or all of these factors were to turn very positive over the next 12 months, then a consortium of our major shareholders would have already launched a t/o in the £10-12 range and we'd be sold. Anders and Camelot have clearly worked in tandem to block Trendyol / Alibaba. So it stands they will work in tandem again to launch a t/o (or to block others). They literally only need one additional major shareholder and they could easily get £10 over the line because the majority of the 20% PI holdings would vote in favour of that number. If they bring MA onside the whole thing would be a done deal and they could get easily even £8 over the line. MA is a clever f@cker and has positioned himself in a way that he cannot lose. I personally think he's angling to be part of the consortium and gain strategic tie-ups with his other endeavours. There's literally no way he can launch a successful t/o bid himself unless he teams up with Anders and Camelot. He can however make it hard for them to go it alone without him.

I've got 65k shares here for £3.60 and looking to increase further. So one could say that I have a reasonable amount of skin in the game and would love to see double digits in the very near future. But the reality of us getting anywhere near £10 depends on a t/o offer from a group of our major holders and they're simply not going to pay more than £12 (at a stretch). Maybe some dumb as f@ck Arabs would pay +£15 because they're the only people in the world with that kind of money and lack of sense at the moment. I expect us to breach 400p next week. And 500p within the month. I think 600p is our stretch unless we get a t/o approach. AIMHO GLA

I think the main things to ask are, what is the direction of travel, and what happened in the weeks following these huge trading days. Obviously the largest volume days over the past couple of years have been sharp drops, but shortly following consolidation we've seen some pretty spectacular climbs in a matter of weeks. Sentiment and direction of travel are up. And on a monstrous volume day we've consolidated a 10% rise from 14 year lows. Tracker funds exiting will be replaced by tracker funds entering in the coming weeks. And if MA keeps buying at a +1% per week then it's going to create quite a short squeeze. I'm going with 500p by the end of the month. Just watch.

All shares being traded in a day shouldn't be counted as free-float. For all we know MA is buying shares being dumped by funds. Having said that it was a huge day volume wise, which bodes well for next week. From what I can tell it was the second biggest day by volume in the past 5 years. That's quite something.

I stick by my earlier comments that some +ve media coverage about being a t/o target, broker reports, and most importantly more news of MA accumulating and the perfect tailwind storm will kick off. Re-balancing is occurring at the moment. Once everything has settled I see £500m then £600m mcaps as the next major stopping points. Reckon next week will be the final window to buy more sub £4 before the climb begins. GLA

Yes I know Aim, but some companies would rather stick their head in the sand than provide an update that isn't +ve. I don't think EML will do this, but emailing will make them realise how p!ssed off shareholders will be if they don't. Hopefully we get something within the month. Sadly I was right about what would happen to the sp in certain time-frames if we didn't get permit news post recent conference. Reckon we'll touch 4p again in the coming weeks if we have to wait for the Q2/H1 update to hear anything.

Everythingmoney, look at the recent drop from +700p in the last 6 weeks on the promise of bad news. Imo this is the most you can reasonably expect to regain in mcap (not sp) in the coming weeks i.e. back to 600p. There was doom mongers and -ve press saying the company would go bust. But it's now proven to be profitable and when the media get the nod (I feel some already have) they will switch to t/o target rumors. So the opposite will happen. We may even get a genuine bid. And as I've said, if MA keeps accumulating beyond the 10% level, the market will realize that some form of t/o is in play and shorts will start to close en-masse. The won't fight a billionaire who is determined to buy, especially when pi's seeing it happening will jump in as well. Finally, look at the chart over the past 12 months. This company has moved +50% twice in less than 4 weeks. It's going to happen again here over the coming 4-6 weeks. If we drop back to the 370's I'll go in again. Happy to keep buying in the 3's with MA.

this company is a bag of d!cks. i recently emailed asking when the next update will be provided, but no response as yet. i suggest everyone wanting to know something should do the same rather than just posting here. enough emails and they'll get the picture that treating their shareholders like mushrooms is unacceptable. i do expect an end-june update, but some companies can be pretty **** at such things. best to remind the who pays their salaries and bills. hopefully permit this month. only 2 weeks to go...

I expect a few more +ve broker rating from now, although I'm unsure if they'll have much of an impact. Maybe +5% to current sp.

What will certainly have a +ve short-term impact is MA increasing his stake. He has already reached 10% so doesn't need more exposure unless he believes there's a t/o in the offing an positioning himself for maximum leverage / influence in the negotiations. I don't believe he's a buyer, but it certainly raises the possibility if he keeps going. It also means the shorts understand they're fighting a billionaire who is potentially a predator so they will start to back down. It's also likely to spur any offers into action from other predators. In other words, his buying influence from now will be far greater than previous notifications and I expect every 1% he buys will be met with a 5-10% re-rate. So if he buys another 5% then I'd expect us to be 25-50% higher than now. Hopefully he keeps buying!

Obviously a formal t/o approach would be fantastic and it may happen in the coming weeks / months but I expect it will be after next quarter's results before we get a bid, providing they are good. That's also depending on what MA is doing. As mentioned if he keeps buying and driving up the sp (plus increasing his influence / control in any negotiations), then an offer could land in the coming weeks.

I expected us to take a short breather around 400p. But when this goes (and it will) the next stop is £500m Mcap (418p) and then I expect us to reach £600m mcap (500p) in short order. I give this less than 2 weeks. Reckon we could stop / bounce around 500p level until next results and/or a bid. A mentioned if MA keeps buying then I think we'll return to the recent pre-drop mcap of £700-750m mcap around 600p.

I'm waiting to see how all this unfolds but not considering selling until we breach 500p. Easy 25-50% upside from here in the coming weeks. And if a bid lands I expect +£1bn (+835p). AIMHO GLA

Also, have people been paid their dividend yet? I'm with BARC and haven't received anything. First time I've received a Canadian listed divi - is there anything we need to do with our broker to get paid?

Sturm, I think people need to also be prepared for those shares to be drip fed into the market over the coming weeks / months. I have no doubt Meridien will hold onto quite a few give the yield here but most would re-balance their portfolio and adjust risk in stocks such as PTAL. Reckon the company will be stuck in the low to mid 40's until it gest sustained news of 20kbopd months being transported, natives settling down, and Brent sustaining +$80 for a coupe of months. I'd say this is end Q3 for a timeline. Lots of factors influencing the sp until those things occur. Definite potential for 60p here with the right tailwinds. I do believe 40p is the bottom though given the company has been experiencing multiple headwinds until now. But who knows what Meridien is going to do.

Good day today fellas. Got smashed at work so couldn't post most of the day. Glad I dropped a bundle in here the past week or so. Fwiw I'm sitting on 65k at £3.60 average and won't be tempted to sell until we get to £5 minimum (£600m mcap). I think we'll see that price in the coming 2 weeks. People need to remember this company on zero proof of a turnaround has jumped between 50-100% twice in the past 9 months in less than 4 weeks. People also need to keep in mind we had an mcap of £750m just 6 weeks ago when the outlook was worse than now. This will re-rate in a similar manner to what it has done in the past. I expect £5 and believe we could get back to £6 (£720m mcap) in the next 4 weeks.

Imo any t/o offer will start at £1bn (£8.35) given this is the bottom value range reportedly rejected. I think £10 (£1.2bn) is more than likely the number that will need to be offered to get accepted, but doubt it will come before the next set of results. I think any would be predator will need more than just 3 months of turnaround before they take on a deal of that magnitude. I also expect the winning bid will come from Anders & Camelot and perhaps one other major shareholder. Anders and Camelot rejected the last bid so makes sense they could team up again. They hold over 40% of the shares and would only need one other major holder to support for the bid to go through as most of the free-float would jump at £10. Anyway, hopefully the re-rate will be nose-bleed level in the next few weeks and we get a t/o rumour doing the mill. Even better is the company releases news of an unsolicited approach. Then we'll double over-night. Looking forward to tomorrow. And if we drop back I'll go in for some more. AIMHO GLA

Simon, they've already stated they expect sales to be down double digit. Tomorrow is about margin, cost cutting, stock reduction and whether they expect to turn a profit in H2. That's what they've guided to varying degrees as being +ve. If they deliver on these things I suspect we'll climb by anywhere between 25-50% in the coming days and weeks. Best of luck everyone!

Agree Cigam. It's really just going back to basics.

Interesting £1m UT trade...

Oh I forgot to mention, if the news is poor tomorrow then mgt absolutely need to step aside. Missing the reiterated guidance from just 2 weeks ago would show they have absolutely no understanding of their numbers. But perhaps a little more sinister is it suggests that funds have some inside knowledge as a 25% drop post raise is quite ridiculous.

From my pov I think the news will be +ve and the reasons for the fall was the hatchet job on supplier insurance, ftse 250 sell-down, and the recent retail news i.e. a clusterf@ck of bad news for Asos in the pat week. I've positioned myself accordingly and if tomorrow's update is indeed +ve I'd expect us to re-rate to 418p (£500m mcap) in short order. If the news is good or better I think 500p will be the next stop. Big question then is whether you hold for a t/o in H2, or bank the gains from down here (if your average is in the 3's). It will be a nice problem to have (providing there's no problems tomorrow). GLA

Well that's it for now folks. Tomorrow we either win big or lose by a lesser amount. I do believe the possible upside is far greater than the downside. Unless they tell us trading is so poor that we're going into admin. One thing's for certain, the share price isn't going to fall back to 325p again. See you guys in the morning.

With all the talk of t/o offers here I think people need to understand that without Anders and Camelot backing anything it won't go ahead. I personally believe they killed the other deal because they want to t/o Asos themselves at some point. Providing there is evidence of a turnaround in play I think one could reasonably expect +£1bn (£8.50) as the total offer value (keeping in mind they already own over 40% of the company). But one also needs to keep in mind that for an offer to go through now it simply need to be enough for Anders, Camelot & MA to agree and the deal is done. They collectively own over 50% now. So if they can decide a price then it can be forced through.

Smart move by MA in many ways. He can entertain any offer and team up with whoever he wants to get the best deal out of the situation.

Anyway, main thing is we get some green shoots tomorrow. If that happens I'm expecting one of those +50% rises over the next few weeks. GLA

Well that didn't last long. Here I was thinking a +340 finish. I'll now be happy with a blue finish.

US market. This company has swung by double digits in a day so many times in the past 3 years it would almost be pointless counting. We're talking +3% here on the back of great US inflation data and almost certainly a pause in rate hikes for the US. It's a pretty big deal on the macro side of things. Thursday is all that matters. Keep in mind that Asos has put on 50-100% in less than 20 trading days twice in the past year alone. If the company can show a turnaround in progress in this environment I'm expecting another +50% gain in the same time frame. The sp is so bombed out it would take nothing more than some slightly +ve news for it to take off again. Keep in mind we need to climb 25% just to breach the recent placing price.

US inflation numbers and investors appear to be giving us a little pop. If we can get back to 350p by Thursday it will give us a nice launching pad to push through 400p (providing the news is good). If the news is bad then we have more of a buffer to drop. Really comes down to evidence of the turnaround on Thursday.

Something for ignorant Brits like you to read Karl. Based on your half-wit posting history my guess is you're one of the 'zeroes' in society that receive more than you pay in taxes.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/economics/about-department/fiscal-effects-immigration-uk

I was wondering who started the ret@rded talk about the high street being dangerous and then realized KarlTaylor is posting again. Karl, if you're winding everyone up then fair enough. There's better things you can do with your time, but each to their own. If you're serious, well then I feel sorry for you and anyone that has to spend time around you.