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Did anyone attend the AGM? Any news on the environmental permit? Looks like we're back down to the first major support level. The next major support is around 4p. Let's hope this one holds.

Nicely done by mgt on the strategic front (again). Shame they're so shoddy wiht timings on other things. I guess you can't have it all.

Wrt to this loan, I love the fact they have up to £60m ($75m) headroom to utilize for any number of options. And they still appear to have flexibility for the Nth Sea. The divi as some have pointed out looks to be entirely safe. And if I was to make a guess they're about to make an acquisition in the near future, which may be the hold-up on the 2022 results. Either way some v.good news amongst all the gloom in the wider context. AIMHO GLA

On another note, oil and gas prices have just been smashed. US politics has gone beyond a joke. They're straight up f@cking pathetic. Hopefully a debt deal this week or god knows what will happen next.

Haha, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't update on anything until the AGM. We're still waiting on Q1 ops and 2022 final results. Pretty sloppy with shareholder updates these guys. Good thing they're excellent on the ops and strategic thinking side of things.

No guesses for the most asked question at the AGM tomorrow. Also clear that no-one is buying until the company provides an update. At least something will be shared tomorrow so everyone can pore over what was said and not said by mgt.

Sturm, I agree we could easily beat the 14-15kbopd estimate this year, which in itself would be spectacular on all valuation metrics providing Brent averages $80. Having sad this, beating the estimate will rely largely on the river levels in H2 and / or the ONP being back up and running smoothly. If the latter occurs, and it's reliable, then we can export the difference between river barging and 20-25kbopd via the ONP. Minimizes risk as it will only be circa 5-10kbopd for a few months, but volumes can build as the pipeline proves its reliability on export and payments. Either way, I think with the ONP running smoothly and Brent being back in the $80-90 range we should see our sp back in the mid to high 50s by the end of Summer. That's a nice 25-30% from current levels with divis. The risks of course are social unrest kicking off again, and of course the worst of all is an accident on the Amazon. This last risk makes me feel ill just thinking about it. Either way there's a lot of upside here if the story gets out. Have to say I find it astonishing that PTAL is so lightly traded for a company with £400m mcap. AIMHO GLA

Hi Tony, thanks for coming back to me. Yes the story is very good at PTAL. It's under-valued by quite a bit based on pretty much all measures, which is largely down to having issues with local protests (armed riots), and delivery limitations (pipeline plus limited barge fleet). The production (and revenue) potential is huge if they can consistently deliver their production capacity, which currently sits t +20kbopd. The barge fleet is now secured for up to 20kbopd (river levels permitting), but the real kicker will come from ONP pipeline capacity providing it's no longer sabotaged and Petroperu gets its credit lines get back up and running. This should be known (and possible) in Q4 this year. It also has USD$75m net cash and is currently printing a lot of money as they're hitting +20kbopd production and delivery for the March, April and now likely May. It carries risks that I mentioned in my previous post, but has a lot of torque attached to Brent poo and +14.5kbopd annual delivery expectations.

As for river levels, you can see in a link below. Levels are currently rising, but lower than same time last year. Last year was a horrendous drought for the region but the barge fleet limitations made things even worse. My understanding is September is when levels will decline to a point where it starts to impact how much can be transported per trip. A few more months of +20kbopd being transported and 14-15kbopd guidance will be beaten without the help of the ONP pipeline. If you add a fully functioning pipeline then you're looking at +20kbopd for 2024. Current dividend yield is 10% and I'd expect they will buy-back 5% of issued shares per year at the same time. Providing there's no major issues I can see 50% upside to current sp over the next 12 months if Brent moves back to +$85. That's combined with a minimum 10% dividend. I think i3e has the same potential but gas prices are the thing that can throw a spanner in the works. Good to find another company that fills a similar under-valued space to i3e.

Anyway, would be good to get your full thoughts when you have a bit more time to assess.

https://www.portodemanaus.com.br/?pagina=nivel-do-rio-negro-hoje

Thanks Oke / Hex. Some really good points. Sounds like we'll be close to fcf neutral (either way). It's really the growth story in 2024 that will re-rate this significantly. The other thing being a bid, which would make absolute sense now versus in a few months time. Boo def looking the best out of its THG and Asos peer group. GLA

Hex / Oke, surely if they post another year of savings and stock reduction similar to last year, alongside margin improvement, this will result in fcf being better than last year. I understand that revenue could decrease but that would more than be offset by the increase in margin. I also don't see why they couldn't reduce stock by a similar amount. Either way if they are fcf -ve it will be small and they would have broken the back of capex payment to get Sheffield automation finalised and US up and running. Thoughts welcome.

I haven't seen any suggestion of fcf being -ve this year - where is that written? I do however agree with Oke on most things, and that Boo is the only company worth sinking cash into when compared to 'market peers' like Asos and THG. Boo is debt free. Has ample liquidity. Generated fcf in the toughest trading year in its history whilst making acquisitions plus sinking significant capex. Plus it has monstrous growth potential in the US - the world's biggest market - where it now sits on the starting line (it has been warming up until now). Boo will be back in the 50-60 range until next results. If they can show they still have a net cash position whilst ticking the final boxes to get the US expansion up and running the sp will start to re-rate. The market is rightly scared of heavily indebted companies e.g. THG and Asos, as it knows a cash call will be made soon. This leads to significant shorting until the capital raise occurs. There's no such risk with Boo, and this company has already started it's expansion activities. I just moved cash from Asos to Boo in the past day after seeing their results and a surprising pull-back. For the patient (I'm not patient) I believe there the sp will be 1-3x from here over the next 2-3 years, regardless of economic factors. Reckon a bid will land this year as well. If I was Apollo I would have started here given the financials and potential. THG is a f@cking mess, as is Asos. Bid would be for £1bn imo. Anyway, that's my take. GLA

I think there's a combination of gas prices, fires and the fact they're stalling on releasing the 2022 results that's pushing down the sp. They did clearly state the results would be quickly following the reserves upgrade, and the market often sees delays as something bad in the b/g. It could equally be the case they're pushing for an acquisition (or going to be acquired) and that's taking up time. But the market hates uncertainty and to be worrying about fires or missing 2022 guidance is enough for many to dump. Let's also note the company does have form for missing guidance so understandable many weaker hands are folding. I've got my fingers stuck in a few other pies now and have moved about £300k into other investments over the past 6-8 weeks from here at about 20.5p average. So I'm one of those investors moving things around. Not because of disbelief, but to make more money to eventually shift back here. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. AIMHO GLA

Westie, fwiw I think it was a trader getting in at the right time. Otherwise we'd have to say the 2.5m Sell was a large holder exiting. Plenty of people with that kind of cash who are willing to roll the dice here, which applies to both the 1m and 2.5m trades. I'm one of them. I've had EML on my Watchlist for years and don't believe I've ever stuck money in for a trade. I've watched it move +50% in both directions enough times now to see the general pattern that occurs after news worthy events (good and bad).

From my pov the permit not being approved is almost priced in here and I'd say in the worst case of arbitration etc you'd be looking at 3p. However I simply don't believe they would say 'no' now, and I believe it would have happened already if they were going to screw the company. The permit is the biggest event until they announce financing. There could of course be a bid or a partnership inked in between those events, but in the absence of the final big permit nothing of importance can move ahead. It's a huge event and I do expect a 1-bag from current sp on announcement (if indeed it occurs). It's a great time to get in if you can stomach the risk. A little lower and I'll take my last 500k. Good news for holders is we're at the biggest support level until you get to circa 4.20. Time to sit back and hope the news lands soon. AIMHO GLA

Wow another 6% drop today. If it drops another 4% I'll be in the red, which is crazy to think given the ride over the past few weeks. Can't be too many investors left holding profit. I expect a very strong floor at the 4.6p support level, which could well be the last time to top-up at this price (he says in hope). AIMHO GLA

Definitely some people dumping here. I picked up another 250k at 4.89p earlier today. However I just saw there was a 2.5m sell from yesterday, which no doubt helped drive the sp down. Reckon we'll get back down to 4-4.5p range in the next week sans permit. I'll add another 500k if it does and that will be my limit. Hopefully some good news in the coming weeks / month. Certainly one for those with a huge amount of patience. GLA

You have got to be kidding. I sell 30 mins for £1.5k profit just before this f@cking rns lands. Could have made another £5k if I had an annoying zoom meeting. Well done to those ever so slightly more patient than me.

Well that's me out at 412p. My b@lls aren't made of steel so took my £1.5k profit. I'm off to Boo now. Potentially a lot of money to be make here if a bid rumor kicks off. No doubt this will happen later today :) Good luck everyone.

The sp is a f@cking jumping jack. Who knows where this will end up. 375-425p is the worst / best range. Certainly requires b@lls of steel being invested here.

Well today was quite a ride as well. We swung 5% up and down and I had zero idea which way we'd be heading at any point in time. It was great to see 400p hold and it feels like this is going to be a solid base to jump back to 450p and then 500p, which is the next major barrier to overcome. Reckon we'll have a strong day tomorrow as the dust begins to settle. GLA

I was thinking of buying more at 5p but given how it's dropping far quicker than I expected I might wait for it to get back to 4.5p. Reckon it will be next week at the latest unless the permit drops. Same investment thesis - if you believe they're going to get the permit then you've got 50-100% upside form this level.

Doubt it given the direction of the sp today.