Member Info for G_G_G

Guys, like all AIM shares they tend to drift when there's a news vacuum, that's all. In my experience they tend to drift down to 'round numbers' when it comes to the sp or mcap. For instance I've been watching this drift from £60m to £50m to now £40m / 4p the last few months. So if there's no news over the next 3-6 months then expect the Mcap to retreat toward £30m. It's bonkers to think the market behaves in this way, but over many years it's one thing that I've seen across many, many shares. I think the main question one needs to ask is whether the water / environmental permit will be awarded, and when. Following this is the upside attached to the award. My answers are 1. Yes, but I'm unsure if it will be in the next 3 months (confident of 6 months though), and 2. Somewhere north of 7p with a ceiling of 10p.

Not much else to say here other than sit tight. I'm not in here yet but will start buying in the coming weeks. This company reminds me of HZM in many ways, which is where I made my first £250k profit on a stock (almost tripling my money). I don't think it will be that kind of growth unless the mcap gets back down to £30m, which is where I bought hand over fist on hzm. But the resource size, strategic value of the resource, economics, geographic advantages, mgt team etc. have many similarities. Easy 75% and up to 150% gains from here if (when) they get the award. AIMHO GLA

Just filter the ****. I see his little green boxes popping up every few days. The guy is obviously a fool. And if he is indeed Oilman Jim then he should be ashamed of himself for being such a charlatan. Either way you're not missing anything by not seeing what he has to say. Just like Jim's newsletter.

Thanks guys. I just took a look at their update. One thing that stands out is their 2023E P/E ratio of 9.3. I don't know how they could possible get to this figure. Even if one took their revised commodity prices I'm confident the lowest case NOI would be in the region of $130m. That's a Price / NOI ratio of less than 2. I don't know how they could remotely arrive at such a high number. Makes you wonder about their other workings. And these dumb f@cks are supposed to be promoting us. I'd rather stick with Tony and Shubham's spreadsheets, which are far more accurate.

Does anyone have the latest WH Ireland update? It's quite a big downgrade in fair value if they're now quoting 26p. I understand commodity prices have tanked, but given our growing production base and under-valuation v Canadian peers I'd expect us to be at least in the 30's....

Hi bottomsup, are you saying you've been posting on Canadian investor boards? Thanks if you're doing this. Every bit of word of mouth helps. Shubham's seal of approval always good to see. The man has quality thinking / research. Hopefully the banking crisis talk subsides and WTI bounces back above $70 this week / next week. We go ex-divi again in two days. Then we have our 'positive' reserves update and 2022 end of year financials. I'm expecting a bit of momentum back into the 20's if WTI plays nice over this time i.e. stays in the 70's.

Not so bad for us if the sp stays under 20p for the next few weeks given we have ISA transfers and next divi payment. I'll have locked up all but 500k shares in ISAs for 2023 :) AIMHO GLA

"...and we are now on course to deliver positive YE2022 financials and reserves data by the end of March."

The good thing about the most recent ops rns is they've all but said we'll hit our 2022 financial targets, and will have added reserves. Providing this is the case there's not a lot else that mgt can do to drive the sp apart from some PR and engagement of IIs. They could of course put up a for sale sign, but I'm not holding my breath on that one. I also believe a t/o offer in the low to mid 30's would probably be taken up by IIs right now. AIMHO GLA

Unbelievably depressing watching the sp. F@ck I hate bankers.

Ah. Well sort of relevant still given that **** has been the most vocal about the divi being cut.

I can't see the twitter link Tony but if it's people talking about the divi being cut they need to give their head a wobble. We have USD$65m buffer before they need to cut the dividend simply by shifting back or reducing our development budget. They can also take out some debt. Mgt aren't so stupid as to cut a dividend when we're running at less than 10% below the USD$160-170m NOI forecast for 2023 should commodity prices stay at current levels for the remainder of Q2. We know prices will pick up toward the end of the year, and if WTI alone averages $90 for H2 then we'll most likely hit their target even with gas prices remaining weak. If we assume this is the bottom for commodity prices for the year, and we don't have any more banking / macro wobbles, then we can also assume that 18-19p is our base. To me it's just upside from here. Happy to keep accumulating down here. I picked up 35k shares at 19p the past few days and banked £1k. The divi is the safest part of their 2023 guidance so I'm happy for people to keep talking of divi cuts etc. for a little while longer if it means I can accumulate 35k shares every month and have a nice budget for some family holidays. And given we're near ISA time again I'd be over the moon if I can add at least 200k more shares to the wife and my ISAs. So as ret@rded as divi cuts statements happen to be, it suits my agenda just fine for the upside in H2. AIMHO GLA

Older, I think the December declaration was the anomaly due to it being the first for 2023. All others have landed within the first two weeks of each month, and often within the first week. So I'd say there is a pattern except for December, which was understandable. AIMHO GLA

So much for 19p. Weird they still haven't issued the next dividend payment date.

Agree Ken. The only solace I take is we're holding onto 19p quite well so even in this market if we get a good reserves update alongside better then forecast 2022 numbers then I think we'll be back in the 20-22p range. Beyond that I think we'll need to look at commodity prices to do the heavy lifting. That's of course barring any t/o offers. I picked up another 35k shares this month, which adds £50 to the following month's income. By the end of the year by simply reinvesting my divis I'll have made a few £k in additional income. Have another 350k shares. And will be getting paid an extra £500 per month income come December. At least this is what I keep telling myself as we drift downwards. Hopefully the bank issue is contained and will only weaken the dollar and put a short halt on interest rate rises. Both of which will be good for poo. I think most people around the world would say they're fine to live with 5% inflation for a couple of extra years if it means we avoid an economic meltdown, which is likely to happen if they keep pushing rates higher. AIMHO GLA

Still no dividend for me from Barclays. I'm starting to seriously consider leaving these useless !"£$'s as they're always late and charge more than their competition. I note i3e hasn't announced the next dividend still. Quite strange really as I don't remember them being this late except in January.

As for the sp, it's a shame that we're so incredibly under-valued. Having said that I'm picking up 35k extra shares per month down here so can live with it a little longer. Silver linings and all that.

God I'd love a t/o offer to land right now. We must surely be on company radars. I think we'd complement a fairly large player like Vermillion quite nicely given they've been smashed by WFT in Europe and they can pick up an extra 25% safe production alongside safe / cheap reserves for next to nothing. Share swap agreement would go down well with all parties given VET is so under-valued right now. Anyway nice to dream a little. AIMHO GLA

Good to see JPM adding more. Hopefully they'll continue to do so for a little while longer. We must be getting close to another TR1 from one of the IIs offloading. Would be good for mgt to try and arrange an off-market sale if they knwo of any major holding being reduced.

As for the divi, I'm with Barclays so will be paid just before close if I'm lucky. Certainly a good day to top-up at 20p. Hopefully the ex-divi rns later today. I really don't understand why they cannot put these out on consistent dates every month. With a bit of commodity price strengthening we should hopefully end March safely back in the 20's.

I second that last post Stas :) Divi payment tomorrow and ex-divi next week. Then reserves update. Then 2022 results. All good news to be expected given recent company comments. I also think the inevitable second run on oil is just starting to bubble to the surface. If WTI doesn't push into the $90's in Q3 I'll be very surprised. Gas will follow suit 3 months later at the beginning of Q4. Reckon there's a maximum of 2 months left to position in the O&G space at these prices. AIMHO GLA

Yep, but from memory GS has also said (alongside others inc. OPEC) that we're going to move into a deficit in H2 and 2024 could be 'Energy Armageddon' again for oil. I personally think positioning now is the best way to go for this second run. Gas won't go anywhere near the prices from last year, and has further to drop over the next 5 months, but it will most certainly strengthen from September when European storage starts to get re-filled without any Russian input this time. I'll be surprised if we're not close to 30p this Xmas.

WTI trending upwards. I'm wondering if this is the start of a run back to +$90...?

I wouldn't call it harsh, I thought my response was quite objective and polite considering how much of an annoyance Louis has been on this board. Anyway, hopefully some more strength into news at the end of the month. New divi payment Friday plus ex-divi again next week to provide some additional support. AIMHO GLA

Louis, you really have very little knowledge of this company and you're embarrassing yourself with what you do know. There's a 10% dividend, growing production of up to 20% in 2023 (depending on commodity prices), and of course there's commodity price strengthening where we know the minimum value the market will ascribe to us at various commodity price levels. This could take us back to 30p quite comfortably if WTI moves back above $90 and AECO CAD$+$5. I suspect this will happen in Q3 with the re-filling of European storage and the SPR. Then there's other things like the reserves upgrade, f/o of Canadian assets, Serenity, or a t/o of assets or the company itself. Finally, there's the matter of when IIs finish rebalancing their portfolio and selling pressure is removed. Some of these things are guaranteed, others are probable and the big one (t/o) is most certainly possible. So feel free to leave the board alone if you feel it's going to be boring for a while. I doubt anyone here will miss your contributions. AIMHO GLA

Interesting price action the past 2 days. Hopefully being driven by Cannacord, Proactive and Yahoo / Simply Wall Street coverage, and not a gang of PIs pushing for a 10% gain. Dividend payment next week. Ex-divi the following week. Reserves update and 2022 FY results in the final 2 weeks of March. Providing we have some good reserves news and we hit our 2022 NOI target then maybe we'll get back to the mid-20's, which is where we belong at a minimum even with commodity prices slightly weaker than 2023 NOI forecast. We're going to exceed USD$150m NOI in 2023 even with commodity prices at this level, so under-valued is an understatement. Strong close above 20p today will be a good start. Have a good weekend folks.