Member Info for G_G_G

Good thing is when the IIs are done we should know as both payment and ex-divi dates should provide creeping support for the sp. Really just needs the II to cease selling. Commodity prices being the other obvious driver of the sp near-term. All this of course depends on mgt hit their numbers (holds breath). Must be close to getting Q4 numbers now.

Just looked at oilprice.com and saw WTI is now back at $80pb and Russia is cutting 500k barrels in March. The cut is quite significant when combined with a strengthening global demand picture from India and China. I think if we didn't have IIs selling we would be back in the mid 20's at a minimum right now. At some point we'll snap back to this level. And if poo goes back to $100 then I do believe 30p will again be re-visited providing the f@cking IIs are done. We do however need some good news from mgt. Hopefully in the guise of our Q4 results. One thing's for sure, we can't have another miss. Mgt need to show they're all over the numbers from now, and ideally surprise to the upside. We should also get an update on reserves in the coming weeks. I'm quite confident that will be good news given they have been opening up new areas. But if we're to truly snap back then mgt should approach the IIs and directly take some of the shares off their hands. It's my mean a few less wells if commodity prices stay down here, but I do believe this is the best way to do buy-backs if we're to go down that route. We get a low price for a decent chunk of shares. Plus we reduce the count. Even if it's only by 50m it will have quite a positive impact. One for mgt to now ponder. AIMHO GLA

Some pretty wild opinions being thrown about here. Let's look at some knowns. Yes the sp is showing weakness, which is in line with commodity prices and some f@cking IIs selling. But that's it. On commodity prices, we all know they won't collapse. Gas will start to steadily rise form Summer as Europe re-fills reserves without the aid of Russian gas for next Winter. On poo, we all know there's a demand / supply crunch about to occur with China opening up finally. This is happening, and not conjecture. And there's no way that China's re-opening won't be good for poo/gas. Russia is also curbing production, which is the only way they can increase their current $40 pb price. And finally OPEC simply won't let the poo and gas collapse as they have learnt / shown during the pandemic. They'll just produce less so they can continue buying football clubs and the Ronaldo's of the world. All these things have a very high probability of occurring. It's just a matter of when. I've always held Spring to be the start of the prices moving higher as China is close to fully exiting its Covid shutdowns. And as I've said Summertime is when Europe will re-fill gas storage and it's also driving season for oil. Just need to wait a few months. In this time I'm hoping the IIs shares have found a home, or we've been taken out for anything in the high 30's or better. Aldo, the divi for this year is set. So anything cuts will happen next year. I think at the very least they will hold it, and will quite easily be able to do so.

Yep I still hold 4.5m 3LBs :) Bloody painful watching the sp, although not so painful picking up my tax free monthly divis :) Selfishly I'd like to have both value and income, but happy to sit and accumulate further. Selling has to end at some point and I reckon we'll have another run on oil and gas in the next 6 months so hopefully we'll see a re-rate at that point. Dream is still for a t/o offer to land. AIMHO GLA

A few new faces as well 3LB. Never a problem providing they're not part of a p&d crew, not that I'm suggesting this is the case. Hopefully the selling is close to an end and we can start to move back towards a value that's remotely sensible. Value here is ridiculous with a 10% yield. We have divi reinvestments from Friday that may help with a bump as well.

Out of interest Stas did you find any companies worth looking into from Shuham's latest review?

Bloody hell. Poo pushing up toward $80 and we've broken 20p. Reckon mgt may need to reconsider their buy-back position if things get sillier than now. Either that or they need to start linking other funds / hnwi's with the IIs who are offloading. I've seen this happen before on shares like HZM years ago. It's where I made my first 6 figure profit due to one of the funds liquidating their position and me picking up a few hundred £k of stock around 2.2p. You'd be surprised with how low the sp can go when big players decide to sell. Hopefully some good Q4 news to go with the next divi payment and ex-divi date. AIMHO GLA

Ditto. If we're good enough for JP we're good enough for me to kitchen sink it.

Jesus I can't get my head around this share. JP Morgan increases their stake in our company and we're dropping...? Hopefully from tomorrow some investors will take notice of the caliber of II holders and we start getting some +ve movement for a change. As much as I like picking up shares at bargain basement prices every month, I would kind of prefer to see a solid base at 25p rather than 20p.

How the hell does JP take a 5% stake and the sp goes down....?

Agree with everything DM. I think to change the trajectory we ultimately need commodity prices to strengthen. Things in our control would be for the business to sell some assets and pump into increasing production, which would be ideal especially if the Nth Sea. Another positive action would be to arrange off-market sales or a modest buy-back targeting funds who wish to offload some of their holdings. Finally, they could target certain funds with reasonable capital or reach amongst investors (e.g. Nuttall's fund) to take a stake in the company. These last points are in mgt's control. My absolute wish would be for a t/o around / above 40p. That would be marvelous and I could then move onto spending too much time thinking about other investments AIMHO GLA :)

Not in the same place HotChip. I think PIs are more likely to happily sit and take the income than IIs. I've also seen IIs decimate a sp far more often than PIs. So I'd rather there was more of a re-balance than what we currently have on the table. Also less likely a low-ball bid gets accepted f you don't have the majority ownership in a few hands. Each to their own though.

Another paid on Friday. And o doubt another ex-divi next week. Paying over 10% annual yield for a monthly income, which most importantly is known and guaranteed. Crazy to think we can pick up shares at these levels, but the more PIs hold the less influence the IIs will have when adjusting their portfolios. Some other +ve news would be welcome though.

Fellas, did they mention when a reserves update would be released? Reckon that could be a good bit of news given they have been opening up some new acreage.

Thanks for your response yesterday Tony. Interesting they keep talking about asset sales. This might be a good way to shore up some value in the company. Good to know that a Simonette f/o is unlikely until end of year. Also feels as though the Nth Sea assets are unlikely to be sold until end of year given the time required for a FDP to be developed. Those assets would be the first I'd sell. Even if they sold for $40m we'd still get $30m to plough into Canada. That's the best part of phase 1 at Simonette and increases our 2023 development budget by circa 50%. Have to say I'd flog them in a heart beat if they could go for near that price. Re Nth Sea, anyone know what's going on with Repsol / Sinopec development plans?

Feels as though the main value driver in the next 6 months is going to be commodity prices and a cessation in II's selling. Some PR and additional coverage would also help. Combined they could get us back to the high 20's. Mgt can influence 2 out of 3 factors by arranging off market sales between IIs. Getting Nuttall's fund on board would be a great place to start. And the PR surrounding such things would also help. As much as I'd love some M&A to drop I think it's unlikely that anything will happen in H1. I'd love to be surprised though. Happy to hold and accumulate each month starting with another divi payment next Friday. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Tony, I'll take a look.

Absolutely mind boggling our valuation and the fact we're still dropping. I really do think mgt need to have a word with these IIs. As much as they don't want to do buy-backs, on this occasion it's def. the best way forward. Either that or they need to find another home for those unwanted shares.

I think the new divi payment next Friday / Monday may give us a bit of insight into whether the IIs are still offloading. I'd expect a reasonable amount of money to be reinvested each month by PIs, which should provide a bit of short-term support for the sp. Reckon it's reasonable to expect circa £400k (of £2m) to be reinvested, which is a decent amount of incremental cash to come back within a week. We of course haven't seen much of this increase in the last few months due to our 2x IIs offloading circa 3.5% of issued shares, which also stuffed the divi momentum.

Anyway, let's see in a couple of weeks. If PM are done @ 10% then we should see a gradual climb. And hopefully with some decent Q4 numbers (to be expected) plus an updated reserves profile, we can get a bit more of a boost. Some good news stories in the next few weeks to look forward to at least. China's economy being supportive, lower interest rate hikes, and the ban on Russian oil products should also provide some +ve momentum, especially if those funds have indeed finished selling. AIMHO GLA

Hi Tony, thanks for this info - very helpful. I'd be interested in knowing their responses to Q's 6, 10, 13, and most importantly 14. Do you have a link you could share or a summary of their responses to these q's?

Well I just picked up 17,250 shares from one ISA divi payment. Never thought I'd get them for just under 21p. Will pick up some others with the other ISA later.

Yep agree it will kill a few birds with one stone. Small buy-back makes sense in these circumstances and should, in theory, get us closer to industry valuation metrics.