Member Info for G_G_G

Thanks Tony!

God it's hard to catch a break with this company at times. We should be sitting on 28p and instead we're back to 22p with a f@cking II reducing their position. And yes we can all 'fill our boots' with dividends but it would be nice to be sitting in a higher channel. At the very least it gives us a bigger cushion should commodity prices dive.

On a separate note, can someone kindly post a link to Shubham Garg recent analysis of the Canadian oil patch. Also, does anyone have any useful links specifying the average NOI and fcf multiples for the Canadian oil patch?

I was thinking the same thing Stas - there's a seller offloading with a limit price. Bloody annoying really. If it is PM then mgt arranging an off-market sale would certainly in order. Maybe a question for Monday.

Jesus Tony you're starting to make a habit of attracting doughnuts to this board.

Stas, I'm finding it hard to square how such a large trade at that time of day could be a buy. It would have taken a while to work so surely a sell at that price. Would conveniently explain the sp action over the past 48 hours as well. Although I'm not sure why we haven't bounced today, unless there's some more large sells being worked. Feels like we're always 2 steps forward, 1 step back here.

Certainly looks like we'd be worth a hell of a lot more on those Kaybob metrics. I'm wondering if their wells and acreage are in ultra high performing wells / areas...? It's the only reason I can think of for such a valuation, unless Kaybob were sitting on a couple of hundred million in cash. Would be good to know their net cash / debt position before the deal.

As for yesterday, from memory I saw a trade for circa £250k at 21.8p at around 11am. Reckon that was the reason for our drop. Not sure if there was any other trades of that magnitude...? If it's one of our IIs then mgt should probably have a word and try to do an arranged trade like they did for Bybrook's 5%. Reckon there would be plenty of funds / investors willing to take a 9% yield on a growing company. Maybe even Nuttall could be convinced with our new divi program...? Otherwise it could take quite a while for PM to reduce in any meaningful way. Nuttall of course would have the opposite effect on the sp and most likely send us into the 30's with his blessing. AIMHO GLA

Correction on my last post. I wouldn't 'happily sell for +35p'. I'd take 35p, but like many I'd be thinking we got fleeced by the buyer and IIs. But anything from the low 40's and yes I'll be happy. It's a modest premium to 'fair value' for the sector. The buyer would be getting a fantastic deal. And we'd all have doubled our money in an instant. That would make me a multi-millionaire overnight. And given I've got a toddler at home and now another on the way I'll take an additional £1m instantly in my bank any day.

Hi Stas, not sure if I've ever said 35p represents good value, plus I've always mentioned +35p as a starting point for bidders (just to be pedantic). It's more what I think an opportunistic bid could come in at if we're still sitting in the low 20's. And imo the starting point would be +35p.

I think the best way to value us is to look at industry multiples (NOI and fcf) and go from there. Tony is best placed to comment on this, but from memory I believer the high 30's would put us in the same place as the average Canadian peer on these measures. So if we add 10-20% to these levels then you get what I think we're worth in a t/o situation, which isn't necessarily what someone is willing to offer. There has to be a good deal for both parties so to my mind anything around 40p will get the IIs on-board. Posters have disagreed with this view but they also need to keep in mind that Bybrook sold 5% for 27p and PM has been offloading for less than that level over the past 6 months. So there's precedent supporting my view i.e. if they're willing to sell in the 20's they're most certainly willing to sell in the high 30's or low 40's. From a personal stand-point I'll happily sell everything for +35p given it's cash locked in my bank account. A bird in the hand and all that. As for broker views, imo they are rarely worth the paper that they are written on. So that's my thinking fwiw.

And I own 4.5m shares so the drop is closer to £400k, but who's counting :)

I think another reason could be that we have an II selling in the background. PM have just announced they have unloaded over 10m shares. For all we know they're still at it. Either way I'll be adding from my divis all the way up to 28p. I'm surprised the IIs aren't pushing for a sale rather than offloading shares at a deep discount to fair value and yielding 9%. Either way I don't really care too much. Annoying yes, but also makes us far more tempting for any would be predator out there. Scary to think what would have happened if we were still 20p with the recent commodity price weakness. I suspect OPEC will reduce targets at their next meeting. And we have the SPR being filled from $72 to provide a solid floor for the next 6-12 months whilst China comes back online. Finally we should have Russian production decline becoming more apparent from H2. I'm expecting a $75-85 range for oil over the next 12 months so if we're to move beyond 30p I think we'll need a fund or two to invest, and more likely a bid to land. At this level I should be able to hit 5m shares if I reinvest 90% of my divi money so not complaining (too much) :) AIMHO GLA.

Happy, you're right. The second I finished typing that I thought it was a bad idea and someone like Capricorn would be far better. Much better tax mgt of UK assets for both companies as well.

I lost a chunk of cash here post WFT (£50k) when I was otherwise up about by the same amount. So a £100k turnaround from when the gov.t decided to f@ck its O&G industry. So it's quite obvious to me the main reason for sp decline is the WFT, which has recently been supported by commodity price weakness and a bearish overall outlook. If Europe and the UK were covered in snow I'm sure the sp would be above 300p, and that would still be f@cking ridiculous if it weren't for the WFT. Government decisions across a range of areas are amongst the worst I've ever seen.

TU showing a large chunk of debt reduction supplemented by continued buy-backs and this will bounce around the 280-320p range imo. I think reducing the dividend payment is the best way to save money and use this for buy-backs and debt reduction. The dividend will be quite small but the overall impact of having it reinvested into the company will be greater for shareholders if used for buy-backs. The sp is amongst the most ridiculous I've seen for some time. Reckon the best mid-long course of action will be to merge with someone like Tullow. I know they have a huge amount of debt but with current commodity price weakness their hedges don't look too bad. And HBR fcf even with the WFT and current prices, combined with Tullow fcf, should be able to clear all combined debt by end H1 2024 at the latest. You then have a diversified portfolio with a huge amount of upside in geographies not run by stupid c@nts. A merger on good terms and this can fly.

HNY fellas. Agree with Tony on the reason we're not at 28p. I think we would be sitting in that 28-30p channel if poo and gas were going the other way and $10 higher than now. It has dropped $5 (from $80) and gas has followed in the past 3 days. I think once the world feels the first Covid wave in China has passed and can see a noticeable up-tick in energy usage then we'll have oil prices settle back above the $80 mark. Re-filling the SPR and Russia producing less this year should also support prices moving forward i.e +$70 poo. Currently the macro is dominated by bearish headlines so I agree with Tony on the sp being in a relatively good place right now.

I also think the company did a great job on the PR front following the 2023 development and dividend announcement. The only issue is it landing when many investors had clocked off for the year. One could argue Xmas is the time that many people would be doing research, but I believe it goes the other way and most people are busy traveling, drinking and catching up with family and friends. Either way they did a really good job, but I can't help wonder whether we'd be a couple of pennies higher with the coverage landing a week earlier. Hopefully Majid will continue with the interviews when each piece of good news lands. The next being Q4 and 2022 results. We'll have to wait and see if the sp finds a base 20% higher than previous but it seems to be settling in this region even with a negative macro outlook. Makes no difference for me as I will be reinvesting at least £6k (banking circa £1500) every month into the company, so fine with the sp staying here if I can buy at least 25k shares at 24p and get 9% on each purchase.

Near term catalysts for me are hitting 2022 NOI and production targets (with PR), strengthening commodity prices (from end-Q1), and income fund investment (as per Tony's note). I think this last point is the next area for mgt (CFO in particular) to really focus. The yield is something like 9% at the moment and safe. All we need is one or two funds to invest +£10m into the company and it should result in a higher base nearer the 30p range. As many of you know I'm still hoping for a bid this year. I'm sure someone could pick us up at circa 40p, which would be a bargain for the buyer and great for lths. Nice dream that has a decent chance of becoming reality. AIMHO GLA

We really need to see some decent PR around the divi increase otherwise it won't create the sort of re-rate that it should warrant. At the very least we should be 26p, which is paying an 8% dividend yield. One of the best incomes on lse, guaranteed, and safe across every metric. It's the same old story, if you do something great and no-one knows about it then you cannot expect a significant benefit to come from it. This is fantastic news today, but mgt need to let people know about it. My parting post for the year. Have a great Xmas folks.

Totally agree cash.

To be clear I'm not saying that we're worth 35p. But ultimately any sale depends on how much a party is willing to pay, and for how much owners are willing to sell. Imo anything above 35p would sway the funds. Of course I'd prefer for us to be sitting on 35p and still be getting my divi, but if we're range bound in the mid to high 20's then you have to expect an opportunistic bid to land. This is why Majid needs to get us on investor radars unless he wants a low ball offer to try and tempt the funds. I'd sell for anything above 35p right now. And I reckon the funds would rip your arm off for anything above 40p. Still not valuing us fairly, but it's not like we paid a fair price for our assets in the first place. AIMHO GLA

'Hopefully he’s finally selling out. Short termers have a great exit opportunity here.'

Source, the whole reason why divis were my preferred use of cash is it rewards lths with a guaranteed income increase. It also makes them stickier. Clearly too much for you to compute. I've also been here since the Nth Sea days, alongside posters like Tony, and after today's announcement I'll be holding here for a lot longer.

Tony, how you feeling about your i3e pay rise...? I imagine you're getting another £1k per month in income...? Pretty nice eh.

Hello fellas, sorry had a late night with work preparing for my 9am this morning. Brilliant move by Majid. As I'm sure you're all aware this is exactly what I was wanting from mgt. Funnily enough I even suggested a 20-25% bump in my email to them, not that I think it had anything to do with their decision making.

Few things from me that stood out. The 20% GUARANTEED MONTHLY divi bump means we're at a +7% yield up to 29.5p. I expect with some good PR (only thing left for them to do now) we should gradually re-rate to the 7-8% yield range so roughly 26-29p. If not then I'm sure many investors here will gradually push us toward that number when reinvesting dividends in 2023. I'll certainly be reallocating all my ISA payments up to 30p, which is a pretty decent chunk on it's own (showing off a little here).

NOI & EBITDA at +$150m look very solid for next year and I'd say there's more upside potential than downside on pricing used. I feel the numbers used are pretty realistic though. The average production for next year being 22.5-23kboepd I put down to production decline in H1 before the majority of capital budget kicks in during H2. They've stated turnaround in infrastructure as driving the timing and a loss of near 500boepd. I think the main thing to take out is the expected 26kboepd peak in H2. This means 2024 is set up for another +10% average production jump. Also nice to see more liquids in the mix, which provides a lot more torque with stronger poo. I also suspect we're continuing to divest from low producing wells, which negatively impacts production numbers, but positively impacts decomm liabilities. All the numbers look rock solid to me.

All in all Majid only needs to get out there and drive some PR. Do interviews everywhere, and with anyone who matters (inc. people like Malcy). He'll have my vote for CEO of the year if he can do this last thing and get us back in the 27-30p share price range, which is where I think we should be sitting even in this market.

Fwiw I'll now be sitting back for a while and probably not posting here as much. Nothing much left to say other than we need more PR and praying to god for a bid :) The last point would be the absolute icing on the cake for me, and I do believe it becomes increasingly likely the longer we sit near 25p. A bid of +35p would almost certainly be taken up by the funds if they think we're range bound in the mid-20's for the next couple of years. As you all know I'd jump at it as well.

Anyway, fantastic news from mgt. Majid has made some brilliant calls from my perspective and all he needs to do now is some interviews. Oh and we need to remember there's potential for a f/o with our Clearwater acreage, which can also provide 10-20% sp appreciation. It also serves as a nice big bait to attract some big fish. AIMHO GLA

God really? So you spend a few years to get 4-5p in dividends and the share price sitting in the 20's, maybe 30's, or you get 35p tomorrow. Not even a question as to what's best. You could take the 35p, and reinvest in a blue-chip income stock and get more than 8-10p on that investment over a few years. You'll probably also get another 25% in capital gain. Clearly going over some heads.

Ah there it is. Thank god. I thought for a minute that Elon Musk would have to buy lse in order to sort it out.

Sorry, too much of a miser? I think you mean miserable btw.

Very low volume given the push up by commodity prices the past week. As for dividends, can people please stop talking about 10 months or anything of the like. There will be dividends paid for the full year in 2023. The only questions are whether they continue with monthly dividends, and the amount to be paid. Mgt have indicated many times it will continue with monthly payments so we should expect that confirmed alongside values in an update this year. I'll be extremely disappointed if they leave it until 2023, but then again mgt have been incredibly disappointing in getting on top of investor updates and relations over the years. I'm also expecting the sp to jump on any announcement of dividends increasing. The reasons for this are 1) guaranteed income will confirmed for 2023, and 2) the yield will be impossible to ignore. The first point is important as I feel that many investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what the company intends to do. If the company confirms a 20% divi hike then investors will know they can get a guaranteed 10% yield at today's sp and pile in. I think we'll settle around the 7-8% yield range after the dust settles, which will be 26-29p range. But mgt need to confirm their plans and really push the PR if we're to reach the upper range or higher. If they decide to keep things as they are I still think we'll get a sp bump to 22-24p, but don't see us going much further as some investors will start to reduce their position and look for other value + income opps. Either way having a confirmed dividend payment amount for 2023 will provide support (providing it's at the current level or higher). AIMHO GLA

Best outcome for everyone is a sale. All except for Majid who gets £600k per annum plus lots of free shares for doing his job. Why not milk the money machine for a few more years and build up 20m shares before a sale for 30-40p. He could choose to retire overnight, and will most likely be offered an even bigger job at the end of it. For me, I'd take a sale in a heartbeat.