Member Info for G_G_G

Rookie, it depends if they're wanting to keep a lot of powder dry for whatever our stupid c@nt politicians have in store for the industry. If we get completely f@cked with 35% and an extra 2 years then I can see this dropping back to the 300p mark. In those circumstances $100m buys back a lot of stock. Fwiw I think we'll bounce back to the low 350s with the buy-backs and some more results in January / February, but sadly there's not much else that can be done in between. Even the impact of higher commodity prices won't have the same result as the vast majority of profits will be going to the government. Having said this, if the tax increase is to 30% with a 2-year extension I think we'll bounce back to the 370-80p range. The market monkeys will jump the other way to what they've done on Monday on the back of hearsay and horse**** spread by corrupt journalists. In the meantime we're red again. Can't believe I'm hoping for 30%. What a f@cking mess this government has created.

It would be good to understand how much fcf they generated in 2022. By my reckoning we will be paid circa £15m in dividends over the course of this year. I'm unsure where we'll exit with respect to fcf for 2022 but I'm pretty confident that £15m is a long way from 30% payment. As mentioned previously I'm fine with them pushing production this year, but surely with peers paying far more than 30% they need to not only re-look at their % pay-out policy, but also maximise shareholder returns. If poo and gas drop next year but we still exit at 25kboepd then I'm fine with it. But I'm not ok with mgt ploughing the majority of fcf into development when a modest increase will do wonders for income and value on this stock. The whole 'jam tomorrow' story with this company has been going on for years. If we're to get closer to our peers in terms of financials multiples then mgt need to make us a more attractive investment proposition With commodity prices staying within 10% of 2022 averages we can have our cake (increased dividends) and eat it too (increased production). Hopefully something that Majid is now acutely aware of given our sp is now 22p. Either that or expect a derisory offer to land. I'd bite your hand off for anything above 35p if they decide to maintain the dividend at current levels. AIMHO GLA

And yes the company should now start buying back its stock. Quite what they're waiting for is beyond me. The company is cratering and they're sitting on their hands.

There should be an investigation into every journalist who writes articles quoting 'unnamed sources' but making massive claims that have a significant impact on a major industry. There's such a huge amount of criminality in finance as there is, but to have major publications reporting on things according to nothing other than hearsay should be illegal. For all we know they have spoken to some junior jonny in Whitehall and passed it off as their source. People asking about why funds would be increasing shorts given the recent results now have an answer. And the **** thing is criminal journalists get to hide behind a veil of lies by claiming to protect their source. Unless it's a whistleblower type announcement it should ever be published. Today is a combination of an inept government and opportunistic criminal hedge funds plus a journalist. They've managed to wipe over £1bn in value in one day from less than 10 UK companies. Unbelievable this can happen.

And what about this time? I have had a response from Graham in the past, which I did appreciate. Have you received a response this time? And what were your suggestions if you don't mind me asking?

Cookie cutter 'thanks for your suggestions, we'll pass onto management...'. What were your suggestions Stas? Did you get a response?

Tony, yes I've emailed them with my suggestions. And I do agree they've mostly gotten things right, and certainly the big things. But if we're to see capital appreciation and not a continued decline in sp they need to make us more attractive to investors. By boosting the guaranteed dividend it will not only attract new money, but reward existing money. And by 'guaranteed' I mean they state next month an increase to the current .1425p dividend. They splurged on development this year, which I don't have too much of an issue with doing. But should they do it again next year then I do have an issue. I don't think they got the balance right by pumping $100m into development and paying just $20m in dividends, especially when there was no buy-backs. If they continue to do this then Majid needs to accept that his decision making is why we're stuck in the low 20's rather than low 30's. Other companies with a less sound balance sheet are paying out more in dividends and buy-backs so there's no reason for us not to do the same. We're all competing for investor money after all. And it's not just that new money will be attracted to other opportunities. Current money will do the same. If we're to increase from here then investor rewards need to increase . It's that simple.

Not in the same place on that last post Tony. Imo the company should announce an increased, guaranteed monthly dividend and the 'variable' should be our development budget in 2023. They should provide shareholders with certainty up-front, and should the outlook change then use the development budget as the 'cushion'. It still gives us financial flexibility and the ability to cover the dividend should poo and gas take a dive. In other words we should still be able to cover for example a .18p monthly dividend very easily, but we may only have say $30-40m for development. This would still result in an increase to our yearly production level, it may be however be that we exit 2023 at 25-26kboepd rather than 28-30kboepd. But if poo and gas stay at similar levels then we get our dividend hike plus an extra 4-5kboepd on the back of $80m development budget. The company have focused more on growing production the past year when doubling our development budget. Time for them to rebalance a little toward rewarding shareholders, which is something like $10m on top of the current monthly payout i.e. very little overall. And if they have concerns about a sudden massive dive in commodity prices, well there's also hedging for that scenario. AIMHO GLA

Fwiw I think we're at our bounce point until the budget is announced. The market for some reason loves round numbers, and we're now sitting at $3bn mcap. It was an easy take down given the 'news', which was nothing other than shorter assisted criminality by a reporter at The Times. Funny how it's the same publications that make these things up. Even with a 35% tax, which I don't believe is true, then we're on very good multiples. Reckon they will increase the tax to 30%, but anything beyond this level will result in a serious backlash from the industry and I certainly hope they make it very public when they top investing in the Nth Sea.

Blame the government for your wealth destruction. Unbelievably short-sighted what they're doing. I also hope at some point in future journalists are investigated for their 'un-named sources' when reporting hearsay that impacts major industries and markets. It's beyond a joke how these guys are in the pockets of investment banks and hedge funds.

I'd love for the reporters who print this garbage to be investigated. Guarantee these slimy f@cks are getting paid to write articles quoting an 'unnamed source' just so hedge funds can make their extra millions. Between the market and media the whole system stinks. The Times printing such articles should be illegal.

It's not the bod. It's the f@cking government. Very simple. We have a bunch of ignorant, self-serving c@nts running the country. As hard as this is to say, the company is doing the right thing by keeping $100m in reserve should the government decide to f@ck the entire UK O&G industry. Sadly they're so desperate for votes, and so f@cking stupid, that it's a real possibility. There's another week before they say anything. And they're so incompetent there's a very real chance they'll leave the door open to whatever they decide and provide the industry with even less certainty. Absolute pr!cks.

What will make this share go up (and fast) is if our f@ckwit leadership give their heads a wobble and recognise they cannot destroy their local O&G market. Energy security is critical. And these idiots are killing their local industry to get a few votes. The 17th can't come soon enough. But I imagine these hopeless fools will still leave some question marks on the table just as a parting gift to an industry they've crippled so investors and investment are still in limbo land. My disdain for this government knows no bounds.

Any chartists care to share the next minor and major support levels below 369p?

DBNO we use Brent not WTI to begin with. And why would prices suddenly get ugly? There's plenty of support lines established by the last poo dip. And there's the ending of the strategic reserve releases, alongside the Russian oil ban. All coming in the next few weeks. The poo may drop sometime next year in line with an ugly worldwide recession, but we're nowhere near it just yet.

So many issues with this government Sekforde but taxing O&G further is hardly going to fill that $60bn black hole especially given the level of taxes the industry is already paying. Perhaps they should do the sensible thing and share the taxation burden across all industries, which of course would raise a lot more in taxes. Perhaps they should close loopholes for pr!ck companies like Amazon, Meta and Alphabet who have been paying less than 5% for years. And loopholes for the ultra wealthy and trust fund babies of the UK and abroad who sink their money into London real estate. And perhaps they should accept that leaving the EU has done immense, measurable damage to the economy resulting in 10's of billions less in tax receipts every year. Never in my life have I seen a G20 nation's economy being run into the ground on such poor decisions making.

Funny also there was no windfall tax for online companies or medical services companies during the pandemic. Even worse that government ministers were fast tracking shell companies set up by 'friends' of the conservative party for medical safety provisions. And worse still these shell companies were set-up in tax havens so they didn't even pay anything on the money this country and people provided in their taxes. The Tory led shambles of Brexit and almost every other f@ck up since David Cameron left office is straight up immoral and bordering on criminal. I'm disgusted by the leadership of this country, and although Sir Keir Starmer at least has an ethical backbone and genuine care for the 99%ers, unfortunately a lot of his economic policies leave a lot to be desired as well. This country is a complete shambles.

I'm also now starting to appreciate the pain of the lths here. I don't think it will last as I do genuinely believe they've primed the public and industry in a way that 'everyone wins' (in a sense). Hard to say what they'll do but if I had to guess they'll increase the tax but not the length of time. The end of 2025 is a long way form here and god knows what will happen in that time. Just think about what's happened in the past 3 years where poo has gone negative then up to $120pb with all the spikes and drops in between. It will also mean that companies can move ahead with allocating resources. If we're still in the 300's in December then I'll be loading up here for the bounce in Q1. Not sure how much money I'll have in the market beyond March though. Reckon 2023-2025 will be written about in the future as some of the worst economic years in British history. Money to be made in such an environment, but far more money will be lost.

I still think the government will go for somewhere in the middle. They can say they've increased the WFT, but also listened to the industry. I don't think they'll go for an increase plus extension as the backlash will be significant. If they need more tax revenue maybe we should rejoin the EU so less companies are moving overseas where they're employing people and pay taxes. Or they could close the loopholes that allow tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to shirk their responsibilities, rather than just taking money out of the country. Or even better still, close the loopholes for all the trust fund babies of the world. That would of course f@ck Mrs Sunak, but would certainly raise a lot of capital if the ultra rich had less places to hide their tax free gains. Never in my life have I seen a government divide and impoverish their nation like what the Tories have done. All for people like Boris Jonson, the once 'Remainer', to get his seat on the front bench and Prime Ministership. Truss was no different. Promising things to get into power then worrying about the 'how' later. Absolute f@cking charlatans who put their political career ahead of the good of the nation. And yet they still won't go after the trust funders where the majority of wealth sits.

Thanks Rookie. Do any other chartists have minor / major resistance levels mapped below 389p?

Any chartists care to share the next minor, and next major support levels?