Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Agreed, and also loving the calm today.
I suspect this will change dramatically if (when ;-) the Covid challenge trials are announced. I feel that orph is still very under the radar for a lot of people. When the RNS comes it will likely be front-page news, probably globally, so I'll take my little slice of calm now.
And it will be interesting to see if this inches up to 25p on close today...
GLA and have a great weekend.

Assuming the Covid challenge trial is given the green light - about 40p+

Good spot KTRB - thanks for sharing this.
( your comment also made me chuckle :-)

I'm not sure a takeover would be on the cards at the moment. Not unless someone was prepared to pay an absolute premium for FLU-v, AGS-v, Prep and the database - in addition to the core business.
After the sale of orph's assets? Maybe? But I'm inclined to agree with Ivy on this - I don't see a large Pharma bidding (who develops so many products they need their own, in-house, challenge trial facility?)

Hi Trader 3

My fag packet has a slightly lower figure on it.

I agree on the Non Covid Hvivo work - 40-50 million based on CF's comments on the clinic being close to fully booked

I'm penciling in the Covid trials at 40-60 million. It would be fantastic if it were even more successful - but I'd settle for half the prospective pipeline for this.

Lab - 10-20 million

Genomic Database - ? Really not sure how much this will bring in 2021. I think it has large revenue potential (it can be prodectised without diverging much from the Service Company model that CF is driving, which is great) but not clear on when this will be realised. Though I am hugely excited about the potential here.

So 90-130 million revenue.

Even at the low level that will be a doubling of the current SP to 41p... and 60p at the high level. And that is without the sale of any of the assets.

Don't get me wrong - I would love for you to be right Trader 3. And if orph becomes the only covid challenge in town is and booked up years in advance then that is an entirely different scale :-) . And of course the publicity this will bring could drive the SP much, much higher.

I would be happy if I was right. I'd be delighted if you were :-)
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I'm not including any of the assets in my calculations. Partly because I'm looking on any dividend as a bonus and this isn't a core part of my investment strategy... but also because I'm not sure how to value them. I guess we will all find out in a few months...

I find it difficult to believe that Imutex is priced in currently. My (admittedly, back of a fag packet) calculations have orph currently undervalued for Hvivo alone. And that is without any Covid trials.
I have no idea what a sale and dividend announcement would do to the share price because I'm struggling to understand the current market valuation - lol :-)
Happily holding and enjoying the chatter on the board. Have a great weekend everyone...

Good Find MM. Could be a real opportunity here - and ORPH is already on the government radar with the challenge studies.
I know (from experience) that the UK gov isn't always great at joined up thinking - but I'm sure CF and the team will be quick to point out any possibilities to them. It really feels as though things are aligning. The right place at the right time.

David Morens, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the new study should not be over-interpreted, but added that the virus could be responding to public health interventions such as social distancing.

“All those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” he said.

Morens noted that this could mean that the virus might continue to mutate even after a vaccine is available, meaning the vaccine will have to be tinkered with – just as the flu vaccine is altered each year.

(full article)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/coronavirus-mutate-contagious-study-us-cases

I expect some contract announcements to follow (suspect they have been lined up - but awaiting approval for the trials to go ahead)

And we are off... I think this is what we have been waiting for :-)

:-)
That Genetic Data was just resting in my account...

Orph getting referenced in an article on Genetics and Big Data
https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40051403.html

Personally, I'd like to hear an update on the prospect pipeline. This is the core business so it would be good to know that there is movement from 'potential' to 'realised' prospects. It doesn't have to be Covid related (although a positive update on this would be brilliant).
Given the number of job vacancies being posted on the Hvivo website recently I am hopeful they have additional contracts lined up...

Obviously, if they have monetised an asset then this would be great and I'd be happy to wait longer on pipeline news :-)

Thanks Ivy
And thanks for the insight into Pfizer - it is always good to hear from people who know / work with the players.
ATB - and have a great weekend.

Not yet - but I shall be ordering some :-) . I think it is a brilliant idea . The world could use a little more cheer at the moment

Hi All
Long time lurker, first time poster.
I originally got into orph with the hope of taking a short term gain. I changed my mind, held and have since increased my holding. The more I learn about orph the happier I am to sit and wait.
Not too much new in last night's presentation... but there didn't need to be as the fundamentals look strong.
For me, the key take-aways are:

Pfizer called them. If the big boys are calling you - then you are in the right space!

160m prospect pipeline. Not new info, but I think sometimes gets a little forgotten in all the talk of sellers and imutex. CF has been explicit about where the break even and profitability points are. For me, orph's SP is seriously undervalued at the moment.

Wearables. A dividend is always nice... But being involved with the big tech boys could well spin off in different directions in the future. These firms have to be incredibly innovative, who knows what they might think up now that orph is on their radar...

And thank you all for sharing your insights and research here - it has been interesting and informative reading your posts.