Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

30 million shots of horse semen...? That’s some horse :-)
It might not be insurmountable but it is far from straightforward. This is only the start.

"Only a few..."
There are 16 contracts signed. Those where the value is know add up to a possible 57.5milllion.
If you assign a value of 2.5million (the lowest known contract price) to the unknown contracts - that is an additional 25million.
So at least 82.5million signed by early November. For a company that was loss making at the start of the year.
Personally, I think that is a decent amount of contracts and orph is a bit under valued at the moment...

Hmm... is this contract to test Flu-V for the buyer? ;-)
I’m largely kidding - but great news anyway. The contracts are really stacking up.

I've been musing for a while about the wearables/data aspect of this... In fact I think it was the original mention that had me excited enough to write my first post here :-) . Anyway, I've been thinking that this could be much more than simply a licensing arrangement if it does go to a single bidder. I won't use the word partnership - but I can certainly imagine an ongoing relationship where the original deal was just the start.
If a wearable company wants to build up a 'general' health database (post covid) than who better to assist than orph? Why not apply the analytic knowledge gained from years of challenge studies to a much larger group, e.g. everyone with an apple watch who has agreed to share data? What happens if Apple wants to give every NHS patient in the UK a watch in return for having their data analysed?
I truly think this could be huge for orph.

The money will be for the up coming Covid trials. This is the data they want - the rest will have some value but nothing compared to the Covid trials data. The sale will be forward looking... so any deal will likely be for access to the existing DB plus all future trial data (and use of wearable during trial)

So many great take-aways from last night. But this one line stood out most to me.
About 2:05 in - in response to the q about selling : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGGRadLPLqs - big thank you to Usain for sharing the link!)
So a share price of 45-60p in the next 6months. Given how (deliberately ;-) understated CF has been on this topic then I suspect this is conservative.
And have to say - I loved how obviously excited he was. I think he has a pipeline of news queued up.
GLA - and happy Friday

Cracking spot Trader_3
Might be we get an update in tonight's presentation...?

:-) OK. I'm off to work on my sermon... GLA,I hope to see you soon and somewhere North of 3p (maybe the Sunday after next)

Hey Philboro
It might be big for normal service (and I fully appreciate that I haven't been here for those times, so I feel a bit awkward commenting this late to the party) but SAR has a much, much higher profile now.
Statistically, this volume isn't significant for a stock with this many shares - that is currently in the spotlight.
This is going to be a white-knuckle ride for LTH's. The II's haven't really turned up yet - and they can wring this dry on every RHS...

Looks big until you consider the number of SAR shares issued (over 3000 million!).
I fully appreciate this is my first post on SAR - so apologies, and I'm absolutely not trying to de-ramp. And for the record, I've been watching for a while and really like what I see... and I bought in last week (the first time I could free up cash from elsewhere). I see huge potential here - and I'm now invested.
However, traders and mm's have scented on this like a limping gazelle. Yesterdays tree-shake was textbook. Someone on this board described it as brutal and they are not wrong. There will be more of this. Late trades over 1m are to be expected as the norm and not looked at as exceptional. And I wouldn't be shocked if this dips to around 1.4/1.5 before it heads onwards above 3p (and likely much further). GLA - but other shakes are coming.
Also, this is a super board to read through for research with a lot of generous (and humorous) posters.

I think this was known/suspected by most anyway and it isn't a major part of the revenue stream. I don't see this in anyway responsible for the dip in share price. IMHO it is just 'buy rumour - sell news'... and perhaps a little bit of investors taking profits to use elsewhere?
For me nothing has changed. In fact I placed a limit order to buy if the SP hit 22p so I've just topped up.
GLA . The periods after (big) news are often difficult. I'm foccusing on what brought me to orph in the first place :-)

It is a Phase 1 trial. Nobody is getting dosed with covid on this one... RNS here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ORPH/contract-for-covid-19-vaccine-trial-yewr7j4fvrowqbd.html

Guardian article (no paywall): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/rush-for-results-could-lead-to-inferior-covid-vaccine-say-scientists

I 'think' there might be a company that can help with this...

Well said Demon_G - you're absolutely right. The SP fluctuations have distracted from an exceptionally good news week!

Thanks balman - that was a very interesting listen.
If I have understood correctly that is a approximately 80 million revenue (40m non-covid hcs and 40 covid dev work + hcs - if 3 slots are taken) rising to 100/110 million if the new facility is fully booked.
So without any other revenue that gives a potential market cap of 240-330 million just for Hvivo's HCS work (based on 3x multiple).
If anyone else has a different take on the numbers please say...
Feeling very relaxed about my investment in orph

Possibly the fact that the actual covid challenge trials won't be starting till May, rather than January, has influenced (shorter term) investors to move into other stock too?

OK, not quite what I was expecting after the government contract announcement... but I'm quite relaxed as none of the fundamentals have changed. In fact, with the news of developing additional sites globally, things have actually improved.
Some profits were always going to be taken (though the dip to 23p was a bit more than I was anticipating tbh).
It will be interesting to see if the price bounces back after the large sells today.

Hi Whitegates
Just my opinion, but I've not seen anything to suggest that sort of revenue (yet).
If we're looking at 3x revenue to roughly estimate the market cap then a £1.50 SP will need 300m+ of revenue.
If multiple companies/countries start signing up then who knows in a year or so...? For now, if orph get 3 trials to start with then I can see the share price doubling. More beyond that would be fantastic. I guess we are all waiting to see the scale of the potential work...
Given what has been achieved so far, in a fairly short space of time, I'm excited (though trying to keep a lid on it till the RNS(s) drop :-)

I'm not sure it is fully factored in yet. Personally, I think the current SP is slightly higher than warranted for the existing declared contracts - and I suspect that it is anticipation of the Government/Challenge Trials that is pushing it up (though could also be the prospect of dividends driving this too).
If the contracts are announced in line with the rumours (around £40 million) then I'd expect the SP to hit 40p+ and potentially more given the publicity that will be generated.
It is a nice place to be. For a long time orph has been undervalued - good to see it being appreciated...

Given that global media will be all over this the second it is announced... I suspect an epic amount of 'ass covering' preparation has been done.
Trader_3 has posted some excellent info about public consultation processes and scientific papers which will likely form part of the rationale for green lighting the trial.
And all this is aside from negotiating priority access to any vaccines that are involved in the trials for the UK - not straightforward when dealing with international companies with competing priorities.
All that being said, I still expect some news this week ;-)