Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

I was thinking they might want to keep the specific dates that volunteers are being admitted off the news. I can see the British press hanging around the Royal Free trying to speak to any 18-30 year old with a suitcase - if they know exactly when the trials are starting :-)

Hi Grailor
I didn't think this required additional approval after the ethics committee ( https://www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk ).
I'm assuming this trail is underway and it is just being kept off the news?
Anyone else have thoughts on this?

That's a great article for ORPH. If I wasn't already invested then it would make me take a closer look...
(almost as good as your 'reasons to invest' list Trader_3 :-)

The asterisks should be replaced with
*************
(No idea why some URLs get stripped)

From directors talk : https://*************.net/codagenix-expands-senior-management-team-to-support-covid-19-vaccine-progress

This strikes me as good news for ORPH (and potentially the planet if they do produce a nasal spray vaccine that lasts 5-7 years). ORPH and Codagenix seem to have a very good relationship... so future work likely here

(IMHO)
MOGP has nothing to do with ORPH. I’ve had a punt because Raglan bought in - and I think CF is a smart cookie who has constantly delivered. MOGP might well deliver something interesting but it isn’t ORPH related.
No way is CF diluting assets. He sweats assets - he doesn’t dilute them.
In all the ‘cabin fever’ this board has obsessed about mog**** (as I’m now calling it) and f’king invesco and seems to have glossed over Trader_3s excellent research. I recommend reading them again as I think this will drive the share price massively in the short/medium term...
T3, thank you again.

Wolfo - that made me laugh out loud :-) .
(Thought I have wondered... ;-)

Well said DumbledoresBeard
When this moves - it could move very quickly indeed. The covid challenge trials were always likely to be a pivot point, once the first one is done it will unlock the remaining slots (30-40million potentially) and massively increase the value of Disease in Motion.

Great to see both sides of the business converting their prospects into contracts.
Hvivo might be the headline grabber - but Venn have been steadily winning contracts too (Sept, Oct, Dec and now March - new contract wins for Venn... and Dec, Jan, Feb contract renewals and extensions - check the RNS).
Open Orphan is growing.
(and I wonder if there will be 1 more RNS before the Thursday [presentation)

Hey Shardster - no offence taken :-)
Good luck to you and have a great weekend

"TB has made some shareholders very wealthy"
Yes, he certainly has.

"as a general rule he has done extremely well for investors"
He provoked a Private investor rebellion at RMS that saw a disparate collection of PIs galvanised into a class action that voted down warrants . How often does that happen? How badly do you need to treat investors for them to band together to vote out a BOD.
On AIM, which is basically the wild west...

"Its a bad trait being jealous of others having success, TB has taken lot of stick this year 4 what?making himself/his family wealthy multi multi millionaires not that they most probably wasnt in 1st place"
If you are a Private Investor, not privy to TB's plans to make himself and his family rich, how confident would you be investing in a company he runs for his own gain?

"TB is just same as any other CEO on AIM"
Not true. Some CEOs want to build a business - not just use it. I actively try to invest in companies with this sort of CEO.

"I suppose what it comes down 2 is Has TB delivered 4 his shareholders alongside himself?"
Are you smoking crack?

"Is TB perfect? no no-1 is if he was he would have sold rms at 7p 8p 9p & this last batch in brh at £1.40 "
Do you understand how director dealing works? The periods directors can deal in in will almost never coincide with the high points. However, if you want to sell at 5p, ramp it to 7p... if you want to sell at 57p ramp it to a quid.

Check what date TBs next warrants come into play... then look out for after hours RNSs detailing director sells in the following days.
FFS.
That said, good luck. I genuinely mean that - and I hope you do well... I just wouldn't bet on it.

Trader_3 - I completely agree.
I have put a small amount (fun money only) in MOGP purely because Raglan has taken a stake. I have not touched my ORPH holding to do this - and have no intention of selling ORPH any time soon. This is purely to keep me interested / entertained as I don't have any short-term ventures at the moment.
I can't see (m)any ORPH investors reducing their stake here to put into MOGP - as you say it would be a jump from the known into the unknown.
This is just to keep me entertained while we wait for the next ORPH news... which I think might involve the remaining Covid slots at the Royal Free. Just my guess.

Yeah, I've taken a small punt based on the ORPH connection...
A bit like when your favourite race horse trainer makes a last minute entry to a race with an unknown horse. I'm backing the trainer not the horse :-)
Only fun money so far - but have freed up a bit of capital (not from ORPH - that is locked tight) and will see what unfolds.
GLA - nice to have a bit of excitement here

There are rules on when Directors can and can't sell. The RNS on the 1st cleared the decks, i.e. no news for a bit now, enabling TB to start selling (IMHO).

I wonder if this will change any ORPH/Spinoff plans
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/02/sunak-to-reform-stock-market-to-shore-up-city-of-londons-position

Hey ceilidhdan
Welcome, and good first post.
This is something I've been struggling with for a while. I can't get the traditional CRO multiple to sit sit right in my head for ORPH.
ORPH has no direct competition for its core business which is Hvivo and Human Challenge Studies. Nobody else does this at any meaningful level. I'd say that there isn't a multiplier for this - because there is no-one else to base this on.
So that isn't massively helpful. We could estimate Venn's contribution using the 3x (2.7x) multiplier - but what about Hvivo's? And we are in the middle of a Pandemic where ORPHs skills have a premium.
And that is before we get to Disease in Motion. For me this falls into the tech sphere - but how do we calculate where this starts and ends? Despite CF's suggestion that this might spin off into a different company - I just don't see this. This is hugely valuable - but utterly dependent on Hvivos future studies going forward. I see this still sitting within ORPH and producing massive recurring revenues... just IMSDO (in my slightly drunken opinion)
I'm going to have a proper stab at this over the weekend (and please bear in mind this is the Wales v England rugby weekend - so we may be talking late Sunday night or Monday morning) and will put some figures up for other posters to build on / tear apart / re-jig
It is a really good question because I genuinely don't think anyone knows how to value Open Orphan using traditional methods at the moment.
Anyway, have a great weekend all...

Hey Extrader
'hearts and minds campaign'
The more I've been thinking about this - the more I think you are right.
The Covid Challenge Studies are going to put (and have been putting) a global spotlight on Human Challenge Studies . This is the perfect time to push the entire sector forward.
And gaining ethical approval for a Covid study might well make future approvals easier to grant too?

Hi GG
Just my opinion... but my key take-away is
"Roundtable zoom chat under the auspices of Bill+ Melinda Gates Foundation"
Again, the Gates Foundation pops up (the Foundation's Global Health Investment Fund was set up by Glenn Rockman who currently sits on Codagenix board ). They have a stated aim of eradicating Malaria. Imutex has a Phase 2 ready universal Mosquito saliva based vaccine). I know I keep banging on about this - but it does look as though some rather big ducks might be getting themselves into a row...)
More generally, publicity and discussion like this is great news for the industry. As ORPH is a leader in this industry then great for ORPH too. And it is good to have counter arguments and safety concerns - these move the discussions forward and, quite frankly, I'd be nervous if there weren't proper discussions around this.
The willingness to share is also good news. I can't see anyone wanting to do this without Hvivo/ORPH's expertise (and we do lead the Welcome Trust / hic-vac collaboration).
There will be a lot of people watching the Covid Challenge Studies. If these go smoothly (as they should) then other countries regulators might start green lighting challenge studies. What price the USA?
All in all, the last week or so has been pretty fantastic for ORPH.
Again Extrader - thank you for taking the time to post your notes on this

Extrader - thanks for the great notes, much appreciated!