Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

I don't see a cash dividend until the Covid Challenge Trials are done (by my estimation about 25million balance waiting on approval). I suspect that might have been earmarked for a dividend.
And I completely agree. Very under valued for a profit making business in a hot space (without taking spin outs into account). I believe value will be realised eventually - but short term we are sentiment driven and that's in short supply at the moment. Frustrating, but not much to be done right now. Let's see where we are after the next few RNS...

https://twitter.com/Eskers1
This mentions the major points and matches the feedback on the Telegram group (from a PI who attended)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/04/bill-gates-call-for-huge-global-effort-to-prepare-for-future-pandemics

"A lot of the work needed to prepare for the next pandemic involved making vaccines cheap, having big factories to manufacture them, and “eradicating” influenza and the common cold"

Possibly their only chance to do this, as not in a closed period? But not a great look tbh - especially as HNWI's have bought in higher than they are selling.

JB - they are not repurposing an existing vaccine… This will be the first universal flu vaccine. It will have to have a full Phase 3. They’ve done 2b : https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02962908?term=Flu-v&draw=2&rank=3

Profitbagger
1. Yes, putting time scales and predictions on the share price was daft. CF should know how fickle AIM can be and that failure to meet guidance can be used to bash ORPH and himself.
2. I don't believe he did say that for 18months. From memory he said profitable from Q4 2020 - and we are yet to see the full year accounts so can't judge him on this one yet.
3. Your trying to conflate separate elements to put a negative spin here. To clarify:
- Directors salaries are capped
- The $1billion valuation was in dollars for ORPH plus all the spin offs, judge him in 2 years on this
- Unhappy with incentivizing of directors - take it up with IR. I'd much rather this be tied to the share price than taken as a salary / bonus
4. Too much blarney? Yeah, there was - I think the message has been received and he's cooling it a bit. No credibility? With who, you? So long as ORPH wins Government contracts, keeps large Pharmas as repeat customers, Leads Hic-vac / welcome trust and delivers increasing contract value then CF has a lot of credibility. A few p1ssed off PIs on a message board are small beer.

I agree that CF does need to update shareholders soon about progress, and I share the frustrations of a lot of PIs. However, we are simply not going back to the days of 4-5 major RNS a month. That was last year when ORPH was a rapidly growing, new company, with major assets to spin off. ORPH is now an established, profit making company with a framework in place to devolve assets.
We had an £8.1million contract RNS at the end of August and a £5.7million contract RNS at the end of September. Two of the largest non-covid contracts the company has ever signed. I'm very content with this level of news flow.
The market may be fickle, but value is eventually recognised. So frustrated, yes. Nervous, no. Not at all.

Patents

So Dribbly - you don't see the relevance of flu stories leading the news - on a forum for investors in a company that tests vaccines and treatments for flu?

https://news.sky.com/story/respiratory-illnesses-could-claim-60-000-lives-this-winter-as-nhs-launches-new-flu-jab-campaign-12428260

A decent piece on intellectual property in mergers and acquisitions ( I fully agree with Thoth on the significance on SAR securing patents ): https://www.sullcrom.com/siteFiles/Publications/Mousavi-IAM-July-Aug-2011.pdf
If you don’t have the time or inclination to read it… just glance at the table on page 5 - it shows how market value is increasingly driven by intangible assets ( patents ).
I don’t post here often. But between the HNWIs and the patent protection I believe Sar has brilliantly protected their potential value. I am a very happy shareholder.

"The market is clearly not liking the direction of the company. "
lightweight - I don't think the direction of the company has changed since the heady days of 45p... has it? It was the intention to spin off non core assets back then.
For me what has changed is the Covid Challenge trial delays. There is around £25 million of revenue remaining for the pre-booked government slots also (without the potential of selling 3-4 further slots). If that had hit the books this year I doubt we would have retraced anywhere near this much

POLB, Prepbio and Imutex have to be spun out. Not only because of development costs, as already mentioned, but because they are directly competing with some of ORPHs large pharma customers. The need to be legally separate.
(DiM is another matter - but probably needs a seperate thread).
As for ORPHs value... not so long ago the share price hit 45p. Covid trial delays and conseuent loss of sentiment have dropped us down - but investors still saw value at those levels. And that is before the recent increase in contract value (5.7m and 8.1m for the last 2 published contracts). By increasing the price of each contract, while costs are relatively fixed, the profit level will increase.
Finally, it is very difficult to price ORPH on traditional models. Not only because it is a very new company - but because it is largely unique. There is no like for like competitor and we are in a very hot space. I don't think a simple earnings multiplier will work - because there is no base to compare it too. Just IMHO

Thanks Si - that made me smile on an otherwise depressing morning

Quite a few Chunky buys going in... drop looks manufactured (and the CWs have arrived). Might add a few on the dip myself :-)

Depends who his intended audience is...
He's already sold the Covid slots - he's now selling RSV, Flu, Malaria etc

Hi Ricky
I think a lot of people will have factored this in already. I did before I first invested.

If anything, I think this is less of an issue now than it was 18 months ago. The world is realising the value of HCTs - and with the difficulties in finding Covid19 naïve volunteers - I think HCTs are now less susceptible to a negative incident (as unlikely as this is given the safety record)
The vaccine taskforce has written Hvivo into their future planning document, and vaccine success is about the only thing the current gov can shout about at the moment, so I can't see them wanting to halt this.
IMHO.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02592-6?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=821a738445-briefing-dy-20210924&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-821a738445-46467506

"This study puts even more pressure on researchers and drug makers to find another viable treatment or a vaccine for malaria..."

Interesting and scary reading. Have a great weekend...

Completely agree extrader... and there is the Codagenix link too (Board member Glenn Rockman set up the Global Health Investment Fund (GHIF), which was created by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

If the "not quite as much as we'd hoped" comment relates to the Covid trial delay then I'm not too stressed (though I'd hope there is a clear explanation of this in the RNS). Government and approval delays can't really be influenced - and we'll be getting paid more again for developing the Delta strain.
Also, the mood music seems to be faster approvals in the future...
Big thanks for the notes extrader!