Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

NST - did any of our residents b3llends comment on the posts? They might have been collateral damage when certain posters got banned / removed.
I'm personally of the view that a merger / partnership is more likely - as I feel Covid HCT ability would be a national security issue if a foreign bidder is involved. I'd be more relaxed once the trials actually start though.

I suspect that patent protection (and good toxicity results) are largely priced in now.
Excluding a licensing deal or takeover (which in fairness, could drop at any time) it will be the clinical trial starts / results that next propel the share price.
Strangely, I feel it will be Sierra advancing 737 that might be the first to land. I had previously thought this was to be forever kicked down the road.

Given the reaction to recent positive RNSs - I'll happily take that.
I'm also going to post the following list of RNSs from the last 4 months. I've no doubt that the usual suspects will be along with their usual criticisms... but this set of filing is a good snapshot of a strong business. Have a good weekend all...

10th Dec 2021 - $13.4m Influenza HCS contract win
6th Dec 2021 - Positive results from Flu Human Challenge Study
19th Nov 2021 - Imutex Vaccine Phase I Study Results
17th Nov 2021 - £5.1m RSV contract
15th Nov 2021 - £1.5m Contract renewal for Venn Life Sciences
13th Oct 2021 - Directorate Change
20th Sep 2021 - Half-year Report
20th Sep 2021 - £5.7m Influenza human challenge study contract win
9th Sep 2021 - Notice of Results
7th Sep 2021 - Positive results from RSV Human Challenge Study
24th Aug 2021 - £8.1m Asthma Human Challenge Study Contract Win
9th Aug 2021 - Malaria Human Challenge Model

Hey stt1
POLB, with the exception of their PredictViral platform, are about advancing pre-clinical and clinical assets. This takes years not months. I suspect some people who bought at the IPO have become impatient - and possibly did not realise the timeframes when they bought.
DiM will have products to sell from day one. It is very different.

Core business is looking very strong indeed.
(as Billb says - boom indeed :-)

In August, Braveheart Investment Group raised £2.5m in a placing that is said will enable the group to accelerate the development of its subsidiary, Paraytec's, Covid testing instrument.?
Braveheart’s CEO, Trevor Brown, subscribed for 3,500,000 placing shares while Free Association Books, a firm which is connected to Brown, subscribed for 4,500,000 shares. The price was 18p.

That means Free Association books bought £810,000 worth of shares.

Free Association Books filed 'Micro Company Accounts', this year - meaning their annual turnover is less than £632,000 per year (their net worth is half that - but hey, DYOR).

This should not be news to anyone invested here. However, I suspect it is...

Those of you who buy and sell close to the time TB does will do well. most of you wont.

Good luck!

"lack of clinical trial data for combination approaches" of antivirals.
22. Pharmaceutical interventions including antivirals will also continue to be important. Though antivirals should be used in combination where possible to reduce the risk of resistance developing, this will not be possible in the forthcoming wave of infections due to availability and lack of clinical trial data for combination approaches.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021

Come on gov.uk - you have the slots booked. You are the only country in the western world that can do this currently. I seriously hope we've already started brewing Omicron and are ready to do a test-run on delta!

Or just a natural rerate as undervalued...

My short answer is no, I don't either.
I'll get a booster shot next year if needed (because of my age, and being overseas during the initial rollout) my 1st and 2nd jabs were comparatively late for the UK, so won't need a booster till early 2022).
After that I'll see how the land lies.
This is why I foresee a problem... if a vaccine 'fan' like me starts to hesitate then there will be many others. Governments will need to very carefully outline their future plans on this.
Anyway, I've enough depressing topics for the week and it is only Tuesday. I'm going to take a short digital detox and plan some Christmas fun instead. Take care all

Hey Moniman
I actually think the vaccines so far have been an incredible success. But I do share your concern about asking people to get repeated booster shots. If we get to spring next year and are asking people to get vaccine 4 or even 5 then the take up rate is going to seriously drop, IMHO.
If there is a decent therapeutic, or a universal long lasting vaccine, then great. Without that think there will be a problem.

First link is vox markets. Google: Pfizer hvivo and it will be one of the first results

Hey Jim
Pfizer seem happy: https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/pfizer-announces-successful-data-from-open-orphan-s-hvivo-sponsored-rsv-human-challenge-trial--eb632f6/
Bavarian Nordic too: https://www.bavarian-nordic.com/investor/news/news.aspx?news=6393
Then there are all those contract renewals over the last 2 years (all RNS'd)
Of course if you have any evidence of unhappy clients - please feel free to share :-)

Hey BBD - one of my hopes for the '100 day mission' report is for roll-over regulation. They'll never get to 100 days if HCTs have to go back to the regulator for each variant batch manufactured

This could be another high volume day of fun and games...

"this dog is about to have its day"
I completely agree BeContrarian.

And I would hope that discussions are already underway to start manufacturing this new (nu) variant for challenge trials.

The delta variant became a variant of interest on the 4th of April this year. Just 7.5 months later it is globally dominant, accounting for 99% of all cases ( https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/who-says-delta-variant-accounts-for-99percent-of-covid-cases-around-the-world.html ). However, existing vaccines do have efficacy against delta.

The fact that flights from African countries have already been stopped suggests that the scientists are ****ing themselves that this will evade current vaccines.

The processes for developing vaccines for this new variant must begin immediately.
(and this is not just a plug for ORPHs services - the world seriously needs to get ahead of mutations)

Sorry LeMajor - what trials are starting in Q1 next year? 1801 and 1802 aren't at the CTA stage yet - and 737 "could start in H1 2022" (from RNS for final results). Am I missing something?

Patrick Vallance: https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1462821698026287108

IMHO, this has to included Human Challenge Trials. It is impossible to develop / repurpose a vaccine and pass through conventional trials in 100 days.
And if I remember correctly, the newly manufactured Delta variant is due to be ready about now.
I'm putting my money on a lot of 'Covid chasing' PIs to jump back into ORPH very shortly.
It has been frustrating seeing the Covid play getting kicked down the road this year but I think we've finally caught up with it.
GLA.

Peel are still driving this... could be another volatile day

10 grand to stave off a shareholder rebellion just before an AGM seems like a bargain ;-)
Joking aside - very pleased to see one of them get his head out of the test tube and realise it isn't 'just' about the science. Top man

If it goes to 2p... I think it will be this week. Whatever is happening, is happening now.
Big volume so far today and some fairly large (for SAR) trades going through