Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Yes. There are a few large buys coming in slightly above the current price. 'Looks' like an order being filled...

A suggestion that Flu vaccines may become even more important if they have some efficacy against Covid 19: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01315-9?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=d3dd4f8132-briefing-dy-20220517&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-d3dd4f8132-46467506

Now, which company can test against both :-)

Should be a smiley face :-)
(not question marks ??)

This looks like the new field study contract going into trial:https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05327816?term=hvivo&draw=2&rank=26
It's Jannsen. Nice ??

When I look at the scale of this trial (1600 participants across 28 sites - not all Hvivo I should state) I'm quite excited about the new revenue scheme. If ORPH pick up a fraction of the market it is going to be significant income...

A good, clear interview from Mo.
In short, this is a new revenue stream, with no additional cost, because ORPH can use already screened volunteers from their Challenge Study screening (who can't be used in a particular HCS because they have antibodies).
As more of these contracts roll in - I'd imagine an updated brokers note to reflect new revenue / potential new revenue.
Great news.

Good summary troutisout...
Just to add:
- ORPH can sell this additional offering to existing clients (large pharma's, many already repeat customers) as well as attracting new business
- It will not tie up bed capacity for human challenge studies as volunteers are inoculated then sent home and monitored
- I suspect that ORPH would not have committed to this service offering without sounding out existing clients... I expect more to follow (just imho)

This is excellent news

While this 'might' be a covid strain... I think it is more likely a refresh of an existing respiratory virus challenge agent.
Look back to the launch of Strive: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ORPH/launch-of-strive-project-77pxepx82hzzggh.html
This is hugely encouraging.
Big Pharma have a need to test against the current / latest virus strains
ORPH creates a project to identify these (in-house and very cost effective, I'm sure)
Big contracts follow to create these new strains
Bigger contracts follow to run the challenge studies

Business as usual. And the business is very strong.
A great start to the day.

Thanks Si - I appreciate you posting this. I received an email from Barclays telling me to review a 'Corporate Action' (I guessed it was POLB) but no document is listed in my account. As it was a Friday afternoon I gave up trying to contact them and went to the pub :-)
This might mean a more staggered sell off over a few weeks post lock-in. I might have to review my buying strategy as I was hoping for a dip on the 19th.

Hi Fishboy - I personally don't see this happening. One of the reasons that CF wanted to spin these out so ORPH money wasn't at risk developing these assets.

Other than driving the SP further down than consolidation alone would have, is that it will make institutional investors even more reluctant to invest in 'riskier' assets such as pre-clinical companies.
I believe that consolidation was the first step towards a placing, to raise some serious capital from institutions that will enable SAR to begin clinical trials (and yes, I know they technically have enough cash from the HNWIs to do this - but it will be very tight).
What happens now, if the war drags on and they can't raise these funds - or can only raise them at a huge discount?
The timing really can not have been any worse.

*The real problem with the war is the horrific and utterly unnecessary toll on the Ukrainian people. I'm in no way trying to suggest that impact on a SP is in any way comparable.

That is a great, core business focussed interview.

A 50% increase in bed capacity
An increase in screening facilities to service this
An increase in office / lab facilities
All done at a rental cost saving - this is the stuff that CF is very good at.

This is very reassuring about the strength of the core business. You don't expand unless there is need. Personally I find this is very reassuring and highlights how disconnected the current SP is from the actual business. Happy.

Fair point Trout
(my comment was frustration at 'investors' ****ging off company management based on posts on a message board, rather than seeking clarification)
Rather depressing that II are so ill informed :-( .
Hopefully this will get resolved soon, ATB

Before spraying all over the board

Thanks BurtonD - a really nice write up on ORPH

Colsoul
"Not going to bother reading the other posts, what’s the point."
This is a message board - if your only interested in your own voice you can do that at home and spare us

I like this morning's Reach. It's a pitch to companies operating in the US market... letting anyone with a phase 1/2 ready product know that there is a (cheaper) trial alternative recognised by the FDA

Jashar - you need to take more care when copying and pasting from your script :-)

I don't think you are being at all cynical...
If PH are here to get institutions to buy in - they'll start with the post-consolidation price they think they can sell this at (with room for downward movement for safety) and everything else will be orchestrated to get to this point. If it is £1.50 then the SP will be just above 3p going into the EGM. If it is £3.00 then it will be 6p+ going into the EGM...
Now if only we knew what that figure was... ;-)

Thanks Mafuta and Bluedreamer
Despite investing for quite a few years... this is the first consolidation I've been involved/interested in. Aside from my interest in SAR, I'm genuinely interested in the process