Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
I think we largely know what's in the pipeline.
- CF has advised the market that there are likely to be new contracts in the short term ('possibly' including a new challenge agent)
- The results of the characterisation study are due to be published
- The Delta strain should be ready soon
- Further announcements on Imutex and Prep
There are others - but I'm not going to list everything.
Given the latest guidance - I would expect one or two contracts before Xmas - and hopefully news in one of the other areas. As Ryan says, long term I don't see any issues. Short term, we'll just have to 'suck it up' as ORPH has taken a kicking on sentiment. For me ORPH is fundamentally stronger now than when I originally bought in - and stronger than at any time I've bought more over the last 20 months.
Let's see what the next RNS brings - whenever that is :-)
In fairness to moniman (and hopefully this will also reassure) I do remember this being asked at an investor presentation. I believe CF said they had a direct line to GCHQ - so I think all concerned are aware of potential threats... I certainly hope they are.
Thanks Ryan :-)
And I completely agree about the SP. The market will eventually catch up...
Hopefully things starting to move :-)
I'm not a chartist - so I don't know if this is down to an 'acoustic bat' or a 'pot and kettle' etc. ;-) . But if one of the chart followers could comment and let us know if there is a (chart based) reason for the movement, or not, that would be appreciated. Cheers
No, not at all. In case of doubt - and also from the accounts you linked to...
"On 21 April 2016, the Company acquired 49.0% of the share capital of Imutex Limited for £7.0 million consideration under the terms of a Joint Venture Agreement with PepTcell Limited. Acquisition costs of £0.2 million have been capitalised as part of the investment. Imutex Limited is a UK-based company developing vaccines against influenza and mosquito borne diseases. At the same time as the investment, PepTcell Limited entered into a contractual arrangement with hVIVO Services Limited for a FLU-v clinical study to the value of £5.5 million. "
Hvivo pays 7million for a stake in Imutex - and receives 5.5million back to run a challenge trial.
Not really revenue is it - if you have to pay for it.
From your own link JimBeann
"Revenue of £19.9 million (2015: £7.7 million), includes £7.3 million from third-party client engagements and £12.5 million from equity investments (£9.7 million from the three PrEP-001 Phase IIa clinical studies and £2.8 million from the FLU-v Phase IIb clinical study) "
So 12.5million from equity investment. Essentially uncle Neil Woodford paying for Prep-001 and Flu-v trials.
But I think you already knew that...
Dude, at some point you need to let go and move on :-)
I don't see a cash dividend until the Covid Challenge Trials are done (by my estimation about 25million balance waiting on approval). I suspect that might have been earmarked for a dividend.
And I completely agree. Very under valued for a profit making business in a hot space (without taking spin outs into account). I believe value will be realised eventually - but short term we are sentiment driven and that's in short supply at the moment. Frustrating, but not much to be done right now. Let's see where we are after the next few RNS...
https://twitter.com/Eskers1
This mentions the major points and matches the feedback on the Telegram group (from a PI who attended)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/04/bill-gates-call-for-huge-global-effort-to-prepare-for-future-pandemics
"A lot of the work needed to prepare for the next pandemic involved making vaccines cheap, having big factories to manufacture them, and “eradicating” influenza and the common cold"
Possibly their only chance to do this, as not in a closed period? But not a great look tbh - especially as HNWI's have bought in higher than they are selling.
JB - they are not repurposing an existing vaccine… This will be the first universal flu vaccine. It will have to have a full Phase 3. They’ve done 2b : https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02962908?term=Flu-v&draw=2&rank=3
Profitbagger
1. Yes, putting time scales and predictions on the share price was daft. CF should know how fickle AIM can be and that failure to meet guidance can be used to bash ORPH and himself.
2. I don't believe he did say that for 18months. From memory he said profitable from Q4 2020 - and we are yet to see the full year accounts so can't judge him on this one yet.
3. Your trying to conflate separate elements to put a negative spin here. To clarify:
- Directors salaries are capped
- The $1billion valuation was in dollars for ORPH plus all the spin offs, judge him in 2 years on this
- Unhappy with incentivizing of directors - take it up with IR. I'd much rather this be tied to the share price than taken as a salary / bonus
4. Too much blarney? Yeah, there was - I think the message has been received and he's cooling it a bit. No credibility? With who, you? So long as ORPH wins Government contracts, keeps large Pharmas as repeat customers, Leads Hic-vac / welcome trust and delivers increasing contract value then CF has a lot of credibility. A few p1ssed off PIs on a message board are small beer.
I agree that CF does need to update shareholders soon about progress, and I share the frustrations of a lot of PIs. However, we are simply not going back to the days of 4-5 major RNS a month. That was last year when ORPH was a rapidly growing, new company, with major assets to spin off. ORPH is now an established, profit making company with a framework in place to devolve assets.
We had an £8.1million contract RNS at the end of August and a £5.7million contract RNS at the end of September. Two of the largest non-covid contracts the company has ever signed. I'm very content with this level of news flow.
The market may be fickle, but value is eventually recognised. So frustrated, yes. Nervous, no. Not at all.
Patents
So Dribbly - you don't see the relevance of flu stories leading the news - on a forum for investors in a company that tests vaccines and treatments for flu?
A decent piece on intellectual property in mergers and acquisitions ( I fully agree with Thoth on the significance on SAR securing patents ): https://www.sullcrom.com/siteFiles/Publications/Mousavi-IAM-July-Aug-2011.pdf
If you don’t have the time or inclination to read it… just glance at the table on page 5 - it shows how market value is increasingly driven by intangible assets ( patents ).
I don’t post here often. But between the HNWIs and the patent protection I believe Sar has brilliantly protected their potential value. I am a very happy shareholder.
"The market is clearly not liking the direction of the company. "
lightweight - I don't think the direction of the company has changed since the heady days of 45p... has it? It was the intention to spin off non core assets back then.
For me what has changed is the Covid Challenge trial delays. There is around £25 million of revenue remaining for the pre-booked government slots also (without the potential of selling 3-4 further slots). If that had hit the books this year I doubt we would have retraced anywhere near this much
POLB, Prepbio and Imutex have to be spun out. Not only because of development costs, as already mentioned, but because they are directly competing with some of ORPHs large pharma customers. The need to be legally separate.
(DiM is another matter - but probably needs a seperate thread).
As for ORPHs value... not so long ago the share price hit 45p. Covid trial delays and conseuent loss of sentiment have dropped us down - but investors still saw value at those levels. And that is before the recent increase in contract value (5.7m and 8.1m for the last 2 published contracts). By increasing the price of each contract, while costs are relatively fixed, the profit level will increase.
Finally, it is very difficult to price ORPH on traditional models. Not only because it is a very new company - but because it is largely unique. There is no like for like competitor and we are in a very hot space. I don't think a simple earnings multiplier will work - because there is no base to compare it too. Just IMHO
Thanks Si - that made me smile on an otherwise depressing morning