Depends who his intended audience is...
He's already sold the Covid slots - he's now selling RSV, Flu, Malaria etc
Hi Ricky
I think a lot of people will have factored this in already. I did before I first invested.
If anything, I think this is less of an issue now than it was 18 months ago. The world is realising the value of HCTs - and with the difficulties in finding Covid19 naïve volunteers - I think HCTs are now less susceptible to a negative incident (as unlikely as this is given the safety record)
The vaccine taskforce has written Hvivo into their future planning document, and vaccine success is about the only thing the current gov can shout about at the moment, so I can't see them wanting to halt this.
IMHO.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02592-6?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=821a738445-briefing-dy-20210924&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-821a738445-46467506
"This study puts even more pressure on researchers and drug makers to find another viable treatment or a vaccine for malaria..."
Interesting and scary reading. Have a great weekend...
Completely agree extrader... and there is the Codagenix link too (Board member Glenn Rockman set up the Global Health Investment Fund (GHIF), which was created by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
If the "not quite as much as we'd hoped" comment relates to the Covid trial delay then I'm not too stressed (though I'd hope there is a clear explanation of this in the RNS). Government and approval delays can't really be influenced - and we'll be getting paid more again for developing the Delta strain.
Also, the mood music seems to be faster approvals in the future...
Big thanks for the notes extrader!
I’ve also taken a few more today…
Hey JimBeann
The value will likely take account all parts of the trial (planning, volunteer screening, number of volunteers, cost of the challenge agent, monitoring, staff... etc. etc. ). The number of volunteers who complete the trail will be determined by the clinical endpoints - or an AE halting the trial. This may have a small impact on the final amount received depending on whether less or more are required - but this is part of the trial process. It is not a variable that can be actively influenced.
IvySpivey - this is more your area than mine - please correct/amend this reply if you read this... (thanks :-)
Cheers Ted
Agile trials details here: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04746183?term=agile&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=1
I'm not sure this will have any direct effect on Imutex's AGS-v...
It is great news though - and thanks for posting the link. I remember reading about this a few years ago so really pleased to see the success. However I see it as one tool in the fight against mosquito borne disease - I don't think other programs will stop.
And on the plus side - anything which puts this field into the press is a good thing IMHO
And this isn't news that anyone was waiting on... An £8 million contract from an area (Asthma challenge trials) that hasn't received much publicity. A very timely reminder about how strong a company ORPH is becoming.
The U.K. Government (no matter how shambolic) will not allow a foreign acquisition of HCT capability during a pandemic. I’ve no doubt SGS are interested - the synergies are obvious. Either the U.K. government ring fences some of ORPH’s capabilities or this gets put on ice till other companies (universities) have the ability to run HCTs.
Also, the value of ORPH will not be fully realised till after the Covid Characterisation study is complete and the first vaccine trial begins. I can’t CF agreeing to a take over before this point (and a hostile takeover is a non starter at the moment ).
Once the characterisation study is finished this share (and hopefully this board) will be in a very different place. There is about 25 million pounds of government contract sat in limbo at the moment - with additional 8 figure contracts to follow.
Frustrating as all hell - but I’ll be looking to buy more shares before the end of the characterisation study.
Hi Mafuta
I know what you mean - I've almost given up posting on the ORPH board. Hopefully the disruption here will be short lived (and as you say, their presence is usually a good sign - though annoying :-)
Hi Thince
With Disease in Motion I'm inclined to agree - I think it is complimentary and doesn't 'necessarily' need to be spun off.
However, the other 3 are drug/vaccine-development businesses. Higher risk and higher reward but very expensive to take to trials. I can completely understand why these need to be separated (as a late stage failure in phase 2/3 would be very costly).
Also, as another poster said (apologies for not remembering who) there may also be conflict of interest issues. Would a business engage ORPH to run a challenge trial knowing that they have a competing product?
IMHO
There won't be human challenge trials on these particular nasties... However, this is more evidence for CF's 'decade of vaccines' comments. The more press and attention this gets the better for ORPH (and everyone to be honest).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/oxford-vaccine-team-make-big-step-forward-fight-against-deadly/
Just about feeling human again after over-doing the British Lions celebrations last night. Here's a to a good week
1. The vaccine task force names hvivo in their strategy paper.
2. If the ethics committee go soft**** then CF just moves the trials overseas (SGS facility possibly). Politicians are risk averse - but also suffer from massive fomo ( I’ve worked with politicians in various capacities for 20 years - this is not an observers comment, this is repeated learned experience). Covid challenge trials are going ahead
3. ORPH are the only credible Covid Challenge trails inn the market
We won't know the exact conditions required by the regulator. A services company will always have contracts at various stages of prospect - so it may be more complicated than waiting on a single piece of news.
However, given the potential value of the Government work (both what we know about - and what 'might' be coming) I'd say the ethics approval decision was the key here. Especially as CF's purchase was the morning after approval was made public.
As for entering a quiet news period now - I very much doubt it. There is likely a lot going on behind the scenes that doesn't fall into the regulators definitions of open/closed period. Also, the sale (rather than spin out) of an asset could drop at any time.
Several pieces of brilliant news this morning.
1. CHIM agents secured - so no take-over by the back door (buying the CHIM team instead of the company). This was always a slight worry so this is massively reassuring!
2. Delay explained - it was the Ethics committee slowing things down. They have now twice approved the use of ORPH's Covid challenge agent.
3. Imperial are recruiting for a research assistant to work with "samples from a SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study" - (thank you Eskers :-) https://twitter.com/Eskers1/status/1414952268760297474
The post is "full time, fixed term 1 year the possibility for extension."
This sounds as though Imperial are expecting the Covid HCT work to continue long after the characterisation study (IMHO).
ORPH is out of the holding pattern and moving forward again - with considerably less risk than before.
Initial results - not interim. Can't seem to type today - off for coffee
Interim results have already been verbally presented to SAGE / NERVTAG. I believe the characterisation study is complete - awaiting written results (but timing prob dependent on SAGE and UK gov who are funding this
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf
(Hat tip to Jigger for first posting this)
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/jul/08/climate-crisis-may-put-8bn-at-risk-of-malaria-and-dengue
Notice the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation tagged in this.
ORPH is developing a Malaria Challenge agent - and Imutex/conserv bio have ASG-v (phase 2 ready mosquito bourne disease vaccine)
Not new information - but a timely reminder of what is in the background