Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Nice bit of consultancy work, with the potential for it to lead onto a HCT. Very nice :-)

Rusty, I think Targetpractice has covered the differences nicely in his post.

Covid was very unlikely to kill a young, healthy volunteer. Additionally, the COVID volunteers would be highly likely to contract it anyway.

Ebola has a mortality rate of 50% and causes horrific, ongoing issues for survivors. This won’t happen as a HCT.

(and it doesn’t matter how little of the virus you use to inoculate - viruses multiply. It’s what they do.)

Not sure how many volunteers you’d get for an Ebola trial 🤣

Personally speaking - I don’t fancy bleeding out of my eyeballs.

Joking aside, this simply won’t happen.

Ebola is the stuff of horror films… and there is no specific treatment (other than trying to keep patients alive till they ride it out). There might be ways that companies like HVO could help - but an Ebola HCT will not be one of them.

This is looking, potentially, very grim indeed. Two confirmed, un-related cases in the Ugandan capital Kampala:

https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2026-epidemic-of-ebola-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-uganda-determined-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern

Hopefully they can throw a net over this very swiftly... deeply worrying when cases appear in dense population centres :-/

... and Octopus Investments appear to be adding (or possibly averaging down if they've sold some on news and repurchased... either is good).

There's been a bit of negative posting, and outright lies, here recently - so I'll repost a few facts, all direct from RNS information.

1. Iliad contract:

This will be a minimum of £17million - and possibly a lot more

(RNS stated this is expected to be Hvivo's largest value contract. Previous high being a £16.8million RSV study)

2. £6million Influenza HCT (unnamed pharma)

3. Traws Pharmaceutical, influenza HCT

No price given, but 150 participants in a phase 2a trial 'might' suggest £6million -£7.5million (based on£40,000 - £50,000 per participant*)

*by checking contracts with know values against the clinical trials database ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/search?term=hvivo&viewType=Table ) which gives participant numbers, it is possible to work out roughly the costs per participant. The £40,000 - £50,000 I've used above is at the conservative end of the scale :-)

DYOR, of course, but for me this is seriously undervalued. Happily buying at these levels.

Whooping cough is contagious you clown. They aren’t going to inoculate 500 people and send them off into London 🤣

"The Company expects to announce further new contract wins over the coming months"

Who on earth is going to award a service contract to a company in Totally's position? They might not last a month...

Nobody is going to award a new service contract to a business in Totally's position.

It is over.

I suspect that is why they have disclosed the insurance liability now... You couldn't raise funds then go "oh, by the way... we have this little insurance issue..."

The dilution is likely to be staggering (assuming they can actually attract investors)

2reincarnated - I'm struggling to see any medium or long term contracts awarded to a company in TLY's position.

As for a 'cash call'... do they even know how much they might need?

The 'exceptional costs' at £4.6 million are almost double their existing Debt Facility (£2.5 million) and there EBITDA might be zero.

Additionally, Ernst and Young will not be cheap...

And this is before you consider the Medical Negligence liability - which apparently exceeds £10 million.

Against this backdrop - would you award a contract to them?

TLY is over.

As an aside, we now know how much the 'exceptional costs' were for the loss of the NHS 111 contract

£3.8million pounds

So TLY committed £3.8million on staffing costs for a contract they hadn't actually signed.

Hi Potnak

"Feels like we are bring lined up for another pivot "

Exactly what I was thinking.

However, I'm increasingly cynical - and seeing this as the latest ploy to keep 1801 away from an efficacy trial (make or break) while salaries and pensions are collected.

I'm not saying this won't eventually come good - just that the board seem happy to line their pockets for as long as they can before the 'make or break' phase 1b / 2a trial.

Monty - Read note 11

There were tax losses carried forward in 23.

The profit before tax is increasing!!! However Hvivo had to actually pay tax this year...

1. Partnetship or Takeover related to 1801 (least likely)

2. News of a deal on 737 (most likely)

3. Artificially inflated to allow the investors from the last placing to sell out (possible)

Will be very interesting to see the volumes at the end of the day... from the published trades this is a hell of a swing!

* usual caveats - the likelihood of each is just my opinion (an opinion that is frequently wrong ;-)

HEFTY???

Why would anyone offer better terms for 737 than the last lot? What has changed to make it more attractive?

Or was it just that CRUK made a bad deal… and now the world class deal makers at SAR are in control… oh, wait :-/

Woodlands - I was focusing more on the " bat off enquiries RE 737 whilst the mysterious sceptics had it?" bit...

But feel free to write / email investor relations and ask them to confirm that

1. There were multiple approaches made for 737 (and what happened to them?)

2. There as no costs incurred at all by Sareum (either fees paid or administrative / legal) for there increased stake in 737

To me this just sounds like spin to distract from the fact that f*ck all had been done

Because legal consequences are more likely for outright lying in an RNS.

A 'misconstrued' comment in a presentation less so.

If they don't put it in an RNS - it is probably bull$h1t

"Our focus remains on completing the manufacture of new drug product to allow the additional toxicology studies for SDC-1801 to commence by mid-2025"

Alternatively

"We've been playing golf... cheers for paying our salaries and pensions"

If not, the money is just paying the board's salary and pension.

5 months!

"exceptional costs are expected"

By declaring that losses related to the non renewal are 'exceptional' they can maintain their EBITDA forecast.

How much these 'exceptional costs' are will come out in due course.

The fact they haven't put a number on it - but did feel the need to include it in an RNS suggests it won't be trivial...