Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Very hard to estimate. A savvy board might have only extended the offering if there was enough demand to look impressively oversubscribed... If so I'd go for at least double - maybe even £1million?

I just hope they haven't extended it for a paltry amount of oversubscription.

Me too. I'm starting to (very) cautiously rebuild a position here.

I don't trust the board's ability... or the board itself for that matter. But 737 has proven efficacy and they aren't involved with that anymore. I see it as a hedge against them rat-f*cking the finance anymore or b*llsing up 1801 deal.

If both come good, happy trails.

Are you speaking of efficacy? If 1801 has superior efficacy then the value is huge...

However 1801 hasn't finished phase 1a safety trials yet. And Sareum may not have the funding to put 1801 through a phase 1b / 2a efficacy trial.

This is the issue. Sareum might not have funding to find out if it has a superior product.

It really doesn't matter if it is 'potentially' better - if it doesn't have the money to demonstrate this.

This is why the share price is where it is. This is also why investors are sick of hearing how good it 'might' be, at some point in the future 'if' there's any funding left.

For a UK trial, Would Sareum still need to provide additional data / undergo a review from GLP monitoring authority?

Common sense suggests a successful Phase 1 trial with no serious adverse events would supersede this... But then again, governmental authorities and paperwork...

An almost 20% dilution to raise 1.5 mil.

That's only enough to limp to the end of the year - not enough for a Phase 1b/2a trial.

I don not expect the market to like this at all. It may not happen today - but this is going lower than 10p unless 737 news drops. Utter Joke.

With respect, I would suggest that the biggest threat to Morale is the plummeting SP and the utter silence from the board.

The share price is almost down to ‘pre-consolidation’ high levels (a 50 to 1 consolidation).

Even if Robinhood wasn’t posting - morale would still be in the toilet.

This is an opportunity for Sareum to clarify their position. Will there be an RNS?

You might well be right 'troutisout'. I'd read the line

'for preventing hypercytokinaemia in a patient after an immune response has been triggered' as covering oncology - and the further applications as relating to specific treatment / cancers... But it could equally be your reading of this... Maybe a question for the next presentation? (though possibly one they can't answer in full).

I suspect it will be treated as 'business as usual'...

However, an American patent covering cytokine storm is seriously good news. As Jeremy says - this is a $10billon market for cancer immunotherapy triggered CS alone.

This investor is happy today :-)

Is this the same Tom Winifrith that has co-authored articles with the Riverfort CEO Brian Kinane?

https://www.riverfort.com/post/share-prophets

I keep coming back to this question... and I still cannot answer it.

When the Riverfort funding was announced, 1801 was in the clinic and the share price was £1.

What is it that the board knew, that the shareholders didn't, that the only deal they could get was this one?

(that's where my thinking is... The market Cap at the time was £70million - and they needed to raise £5million. What do the board know, that the shareholders don't, that meant Riverfort was the only option?)

Sunk Cost Fallacy

They won't throw good money after bad either

It appears that Sareum have not been able to renegotiate with RF for the 3rd tranche payment (under a deal where RF can sell 'at any price' to recoup their investment).

1. Is this because Sareum have an alternative investor lined up and they want out?

2. RF think Sareum will go bust?

We know RF could use the SP and number of shares traded to opt out of the arrangement... We don't know if Sareum can (from the detail provided in the RNS.

That's where we are...

Aber - exactly. Either utterly incompetent or going private (in which case SP value will be decimated).

Amazed there hasn’t been a further collapse today after that RNS

A Labour Government and anticipated rise in NHS funding doesn't necessarily mean more money will flow to TLY.

There will be other companies, with ties to Labour, that may be looking to move into this space. Changes in Government often result in changes of supplier.

'Private' could mean a company created as a vehicle to develop 737 - separate to the actual company(s) involved.

I'm also buying Moniman (with my trading pot - this doesn't involve my main holding which I will sit tight on).

For me it is about volume, not just price. The descent has been on comparatively low volume. The 28p line is based on a traded volume of 67 million shares - almost 10% of the company.

I'm very relaxed with that support line even if it goes lower - and the business is still the same.

Damion - it will need to demonstrate efficacy first… at least to achieve the sort of deal we would like to see.

Brepocitinib is far more clinically developed.

https://priovanttx.com/pipeline.html

Sareum are not at this stage and any offer will reflect that

And there she goes

Given the sells at 30 and 30.15 it might hit the 20s today. If this selling is RF (as seems likely) then they may have to rein it in a bit...