Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Thanks Aber :-)

SP' bounce' - not 'ounce'

While I agree that SP predictions on AIM, where sentiment (and manipulation ;-) play such a large role are difficult... News flow is still a major factor.

If there is limited, potential news flow SPs will usually drift.

In terms of potential SAR news flow in the next year, am I missing anything from the following:

1. 737 update

2. Potential publication of Phase 1 data

3. Potential deal / sale agreed for 1801 or the whole company

4. A similar molecule from another company has fantastic trial results (SP ounce by association :-)

5. Further funding announced

Can anyone think of other possibilities?

Hi Potnak

I read the latest RNS as the 'long term toxicology studies' happening before Phase 2a. That's just my read on it - I could be wrong. I think the board need to issue some guidance on timescales...

While it is good news that Sareum have secured funding, I do have concerns about how long this is all taking. There's no date in the RNS (apologies if this has been announced elsewhere, I'm playing catch up a bit this week).

Presumably a long term study will be at least 12 months? Add in trial design and post study analysis and what are we looking at? 2026, 2027?

We know the SP slides on lack of news.

Come on 737? I think we need you!

Sorry for the slightly negative view, but I'm getting very frustrated about the timescales here

TLY needs to demonstrate that it can make a profit first. When a 'service company' makes a loss it brings the business model into question. When a 'service company' makes repeated losses from £100million+ revenue... it really doesn't look good.

Combine this with a new Government and their yet unpublished NHS plans, and investors are understandably hesitant.

Despite the peerless knowledge of the Simply Wall Street analysts (PMSL) there needs to be both profit and mid-term security of their only meaningful client before any rerate.

Just filter him. He doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. I see so many green boxes it looks like a mental health issue rather than an agenda :-) . There is no value in engaging.

I think you're talking about different people. The Amryt team that joined Poolbeg are listed here: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/POLB/former-amryt-pharma-leadership-team-join-poolbeg-gfsoy5nfyjvatwd.html

Scriv - can you provide a reference / example for where JS?CF have lied?

“Dartron - the loss of £3.9m you quote is after non-cash items, notably amortization and depreciation relating mostly to previous acquisitions. This is not the best way to examine the health of the business. “

So TLY would be profitable if it wasn’t for all those pesky costs???

In the last 2 years TLY has made a combined loss of £2.1million from a revenue of £240million.

If you cannot make a profit from a quarter of a billion pounds of revenue… AS A SERVICE PROVIDER (where the profit margin should be factored in to every contract) then there is something fundamentally wrong with the business / business model.

You can spin this as much as you like, but you can’t escape those figures.

I just don't see where any meaningful profit is going to come from.

The margins are wafer thin, so the only way to generate profit is from scale. However, large scale NHS contracts (of the sort that some here believe will drop from the sky under a labour government) will not be awarded to firms companies that may have solvency issues. Continuity of service is a major consideration for healthcare procurers - and they simply won't have confidence that TLY will be able to fulfill a contract based on their financials.

Grim!

As there doesn't appear to be any effect on the SP - this looks like an arranged transaction (though what exactly, I have no idea).

"After all, HVO built this business quite quickly in recent years"

Hey Mick - Thanks for positing this.

I think Paul from Stockopedia needs to look a bit deeper.

Firstly, while Hvivo has expanded rappidly in the last 4 years, its history goes back a long way... All the way back to the UK Common Cold Unit in Salisbury which ran human challenge studies from 1946 until 1989 : https://hvivo.com/about-us/#History

Secondly, profit only comes when labs and quarantine units hit a certain capaity. Hvivo were able to run a few trials a year while being funded by a certain Mr. Neil Woodford (remember him? :-) and they were definitely not in the cash generative, profitable position they are now.

It has taken a long time, a lot of experience AND a lot of money to get to the curent, profitable iteration of Hvivo. And that is before you even look at the lead-in times needed to create the challenge agents themselves (an absolute speciality).

Competition will eventually come of course, because the appetite for Human Challenge Trials is increasing. But it will take a knowledgeable,, brave and exceptionally well financed organisation to enter this market. And don't be surprised if it is Hvivo providing the Challenge Agents, and possibly the recruitment screening, for these 'competitors'. For a healthy fee of course :-)

Don’t assume new contracts will automatically be awarded to companies whose original engagement was under a conservative government… That’s not always how this works

Https://www.poolbegpharma.com/investors/events-presentations/#events

This one

If its that tool 'STD' then there is probably good news incoming... Happens almost every time I see loads of green boxes :-)

The Advisors page is saying last updated on March 12th 2024 - so yes, likely reverted to an old page.

As for PH, whether your view is incompetence or corruption they should never, NEVER, have allowed the RF deal. It was not in Sareum's best interests (and the consolidation was pointless too)

Posters who suddenly appear on chat boards spouting doom and gloom want the share price to go down.

Sometimes this is because of a short position (very unlikely here) but most often it is because they want a lower entry point.

If they are not total idiots, they will try and time their efforts to coincide with a natural retrace / profit taking. They will say they share will go down - and then suggest a stupidly low figure it will plummet to.

They do this scrape some credibility if there first prediction appears correct - and spread fear that their low price prediction will also come true.

You can see this pattern repeated across may chat boards. Today is Sareum's turn. The SP was heading north from 45p... There is likely to be profit taking at 5 times the placing price... And 'hey-presto', Iceman hits the Caps lock and types for all he's worth :-)

Anyone who thinks this is a positive RNS needs to look at the reporting of ‘gross’ and ‘net’ cash position compared to previous years. Then think about why they have chosen to report in this way, this year.

In fact, read the whole thing again. Critically.

The last deal they did was with Riverfort