Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

PMSL :-)

"That's your common egg based flu annual vaccine 'where there will be steady demand, like flu jabs' is what is in demand and not what Hvivo does "

Sorry, what? This is exactly what Hvivo does.

Flu challenge agents for the testing of vaccines and antivirals:

https://hvivo.com/human-challenge-models/influenza/

Field studies to text flu vaccine candidates:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HVO/influenza-2b-field-study-contract-8oujf2ivlstt9d9.html

Oh, and let us not forget 'Flu Camp':

https://flucamp.com/

You've sited an article, which states that Pharmaceutical companies will prefer to focus on such things as flu vaccines rather than speculative (future) pandemic drugs... but don't think this is relevant to Hvivo?

I'm going to have to green box you Sol - I'm beginning to think you're working out of the same basement as STD.

Good luck to you - but I'm not joining you down this rabbit hole

Did you actually read the article? :-)

I'll quote one paragraph from it

"The stability favoured by shareholders is largely reserved for vaccines where there will be steady demand, like flu jabs. Lower-frequency but high-impact diseases – the type likely to cause pandemics – are less likely to be prized as highly by the market."

So good for Hvivo then.

Sol, if you're going to argue that the infectious disease market isn't growing then this is where I stop debating with you... The facts and figures and projections are all out there for anyone who is interested.

As for Hvivo in the Woodford days - that version of the company was involved in drug development, with all the associated costs. It is a very different company now, firmly profit making.

"Yes probably the investment into infectious diseases has peaked for now after the Pandemic"

Cleverly worded.

Yes, Covid spiked investment, but take out the Covid years and the trend is still upwards. As are projections*

And I don't buy into the idea that a multi-billion pound industry will hit the pause button because of what one politician, in one territory, 'might' do, 'if' he actually gets the nomination.

And I'm guessing from the green box that STD ha finished his paper round and logged in?

* from most analysts, a few suggest a very small drop in the antivirals market - but we are looking at 1-2% from a market approaching 100billion dollars per year

"maybe growth has peaked"

Sol, are you suggesting the market for testing vaccines and antivirals is slowing down? :-)

It was good to hear Mo mention contracts ("contracts" plural) being signed for laoratory services, outpatient services (field studies) and patient recruitment. Though undoubtedly much smaller than the big challenge trial contracts, they will add revenue, and will largely utilise existing resources.

It is also a timely reminder that HVO does not routinely RNS contract wins. Normally only very large or strategically important contracts get an RNS. Contract are still being pursued, won and signed.

"Well if it doesn't finish blue today it's an ominous sign."

Getting a bit desperate now Solvista?

You usually manage a fairly educated and intelligent de-ramp, I'm a touch disappointed... :-)

If that efficacy is repeated in a human trial then we are looking at serious money. Adalimumab (sold as Humira) is one of the highest grossing pharmaceuticals on the market.

(and while POLB probably won't be able to operate in exactly the same space due to patents - it certainly makes pleasant reading :-)

Thanks for the hat-tip to the ASH paper Marc

'Data Packages'

(Sorry, my predictive text)

For POLB the value isn't the AI itself, but the datasets. No one else has these.

Its a bit of a sentiment sell off tbh.

The logic, such as it is (and please feel free to correct me / chip in... this is just my opinion)

1. If RFK gets the nomination and

2. Takes his pre-election views into office (not all politicians do ;-) and

3. Decides to put restrictions on some / all vaccinations and

4. The 'Business First' Orange one doesn't veto it on the basis that US firms make vaccines too...

Does the market think the vaccine firms will stop development?

Development that

1. Takes 5-10 years on average compared to the 4 year US political cycle and

2. Throw away future European and Asian revenues by not developing future vaccines ,even if the US market is paused, and

3. Risk that other Pharmas will pursue development and steal a march on them when said policy is overturned

Personally, I've been buying heavily - and not just HVO

*Minor point - AstraZenica was down 20% because of the Chinese shenanigans - the Vaccines faff has just dropped a couple more % points off

I don't see a sentiment change. I see Octopus buying within a range (and it is being brilliantly managed). They are on their way to 90million shares and 15% of the company. At some point they will run out of sellers in this range / run into news flow that will boost the share price. I can't see this pattern being sustained for much longer...

(just my opinion)

JBond007 - that's assuming the potential partners are Pharmas... They could be finance.

Or they also could be just conversations in a bar. We won't know for at least 12 months

"trying to scratch the surface of why the sp isn't moving."

for me, there just isn't much to attract new investors in the short term.

1. the toxicity studies are penciled in for mid 2025 and no start date has been offered.

2. peer reviewed data 'should' boost the sp, but no timeline has been given for this.

3. in the absence of a deal, another round of funding will be needed in 2025.

4. sar is currently trading above the last placing price.

yes a deal can happen at anytime, but this is blind, we can't see behind the scenes. i suspect most investors who want a position (so they are already in, in case the big one drops) are already invested.

oh, and sareum are **** at marketing - so they aren't really generating any interest.

have i missed anything?

i don't buy into some grand mm conspiracy at this point. there just isn't much news flow to buy into...

i'm still hopeful for sar - just not surprised at the stagnation / slow decline.

Lets see where we are when the dust settles... A few of the big boys are taking a (sentiment) hit today... I just can't see development stopping because of changes in one market (the US) albeit a lucrative one.

Solvista - what politicians do they n office doesn’t always match up to what they said pre office :-)

If there is an impact it will be to pharma’s American market - so they’ll probably focus more on Europe and Asia… I can’t see development pausing - big wheels will keep on turning ;-)

Octopus (and the brokers) have done an incredible job of accumulating within min a range without spiking the SP.

Just my opinion of course… but it has been fun range-trading an AIM stock - that’s a new experience for me.

I think that is coming to an end though. Again, just my opinion, but I expect news flow soon…

This is a familiar pattern since Octopus started accumulating shares. I wouldn't be surprised if their holding increases...

I posted a while ago about potential news flow. As I see it (in order from most to least likely:

1. Potential publication of Phase 1 data

2. 737 update (could be January)

3. Potential deal / sale agreed for 1801 or the whole company

4. A similar molecule from another company has fantastic trial results (SP ounce by association :-)

5. Further funding announced

I don't see anything meaningful from 1802 for a while yet, and the Tox Studies won't have results till at least next year.

So unless it is the news that we are all waiting for - a sale / partnership... Then, I think, it is only the publication of 1801 data that might come before Christmas. Just my opinion.

And I agree, without news this will likely drift down.

Sorry ‘Iwantthatone’ but I disagree. It doesn’t matter how many contracts you win if you’re not charging clients enough to make a profit. Wendy basically says as much in the interim report.

“ and although profit realisation remains challenging due to continued wage pressures “

That is a truly staggering comment from the CEO of a service company.

Why are wages / wage fluctuation not factored into the contract price?

For me there remains a fundamental problem with the business model.

And I’m going to say this again, because I am genuinely stunned, the CEO of a service company is blaming wage pressure for poor results!!! F*** me blind.