Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Great RNS to wakeup to. This is a serious endorsement of ORPH and I have no doubt that CF will make the most of any opportunities that come from this :-)

This is why challenge trials are needed!
The Moderna results are based on 95 people from a trial of 30,00

"The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.

The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.

Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5% of people."

From BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902908

They actually have my sympathy. It is hard to de-ramp a product that is:
superior to anything else available
at an accessible price point
needed by every country in the world
patented!

The vaccine progress is fantastic - but please remember we've had flu vaccines since the 1940s. Vaccines will not end Covid, Covid is here to stay. A combination of vaccines, testing and behavioral change will be required to keep Covid at manageable levels in the future.
Part of that behavioral change will be wearing a mask. It is already happening - what do you do when you leave the house now? Quick check for phone, keys... and mask.

I think they are also working on pneumococcus and malaria (the malaria one I find very exciting)

Finally managed to buy again - took about 10 attempts. Keep trying guys - I've never seen so many failed transactions (due to volume and number of trades)

Hi RF
The 110million pipeline target is for Hvivo (clinic) plus Venn.
So far this year, 6 of the 16 contracts have involved Venn - so not all of the 110million needs to come through Hvivo.
If we are looking at 18months for the Pipeline then...
Hvivo: 70million (based on 45m per year for a fully booked clinic. I've rounded up from 67.5 as CF has stated he wants to increase the price of traditional challenge studies).
Venn: 15-20million (Given the 4.5million worth of contracts signed in H1 2020 - I don't think this is too much of a stretch over 18 months).

So 85-90million of 110million pipeline without looking too hard over 18months.
If by 'years to materialise' you meant 18months to 2 years then yes - but I think that is expected. This is what I understood by pipeline targets...
What I find exciting is that costs are largely fixed, so a fully booked clinic will be very profitable.

Hi Ryan
Personally, I wouldn't use 'cash to book' to value a new company - and I view Open Oprhan as a new company since CF took over Venn and Hvivo.
At the start of the year the businesses were loss making. ORPH is now profit making and has a large pipeline of signed, high value, contracts (see my post above). Cash to book will only give you a snapshot of where the company was earlier this year.

Hi RF - good question on timescales.
Most contracts will be for 2021 and the first half of 2022. Given the nature of the work, and the need to book slots in advance, contracts will likely be signed several quarters before the work.
Someone kindly posted this link a while ago - showing current known contracts: https://twitter.com/Toro_AIM/status/1324288048029409285

So there are 16 contracts signed that we know of. Those where the value is known add up to a possible 57.5milllion.
If you assign a value of 2.5million (the lowest known contract price) to the unknown contracts - that is an additional 25million.
So that is at least 82.5million.
On top of this there is the potential for additional high-value Covid contracts.
I'm not seeing any issues with cash position.

He is on track so far... Check the charts.
6p when he came in, 12p+ in Spring and 26p now.

Do you know what? Citizen Lane, you are right.
If that had been any other company on aim - I'd be smashing the piggy-bank and rummaging under the sofa for cash to invest. I think we've been spoiled by a series of top presentations and positive news and expect something new and exceptional each time... I've taken a few minutes (and a beer out of the fridge) and given myself a talking to.
The core business (hvivo) is fully booked and they are searching for new facilities. More Covid Challenge contracts (10) lined up and there is a move towards Malaria (Huge) and Pneumococucs.
What was I waiting for - that they'd found a cure for aids in the hvivo store cupboard...
I think I've let this weeks rollercoaster in a few of my other stocks get to me. I take back the 'flat' comment.
Right, I've recalibrated - and I'm off to watch the rugby. Cheers all

Agreed, seemed a little flat. Maybe he was expecting to announce something and it got kicked down the road a bit...?
Anyway, a few good nuggets. The number 10 was mentioned in relation to Covid challenge studies - and multi-site capability with existing core staff. Oh, and the clinics are booked out for the entire year.
Anyway, Friday night - time for a beer. Have a great weekend all

Thanks T3 :-)
This is very exciting...

Just noticed Malaria mentioned in a recent quote. Is this something new? I don't recall Malaria being mentioned before - though I am a bit brain-fried this week tbh. Can anyone here remember Malaria vaccines being tested?

Hmm... hadn't thought about the MHRA approval. My guess is for an additional facility for challenge trials (possibly in the USA).
It will be something significant though. As you say Citizenlane, the timing of the event is deliberate!

Imutex, Wearables... or a new overseas clinic for challenge trials?
I'd love it to be wearables - but my guess is for a new clinic.
Really looking forward to Friday - a new CF presentation followed by Ireland v Wales rugby :-) . Should be a cracking end to a rollercoaster week.

Compared to some of the other stocks I'm in - this is like a poolside, ****tail bar.
Some of the BBs have gone fully bat-sh*t today.
Looking forward to the presentation tomorrow.
Have a lovely chilled evening all :-)

Searle - are you suggesting that having no control over the price eventually paid for your product softens the blow?
They might rock the science -but the business side of SAR is making me increasingly nervous.

Hmm... Unless there is a very specific reason for this (and I couldn't se one in the rather clunky RNS) then this sets a very bad precedent for other deals. Not happy.

Great link MarkShares - thank you!
Swapleber... that made me laugh out loud :-)

Except that a successful vaccine will greatly reduce the potential market for Covid treatments.
Yes, SAR is much more than a Covid stock... but how much of the recent rise was because people thought it was?