Member Info for FatherTedCrilly

Would the intention to list be RNS'd before any publicly available paperwork is filed?

It will certainly have people checking the 7am RNS's with a bit more excitement than usual :-)
TBH, I also would have expected a serious rise this afternoon is this was actually breaking tomorrow.
One morning soon we will wake up to something like this though...

Hi Sportstrader
Yes, that was the big standout for me. A dual NASDAQ listing. Did I hear CF say something about the US market for Human Challenge Trials in relation to this? A hint of expanding into the US - hence the need for a dual listing? (my sound was playing up a bit at this point so apologies if I have that wrong)

Hi GG
Given the resources currently being thrown at vaccine development, yes, I think it is possible.
I'll caveat that with my interpretation of "universal", which would be, "good immunogenicity against 'most' coronaviruses for a number of years".
Given the number of coronaviruses and possible mutations then there probably won't be a 100% magic bullet... But a really good bullet? Yes, I can see that happening.
As CF keeps reminding us - we are entering a decade of vaccines.

Hi Padrock
That depends on how ConservBio decides to move forward. If it develops and monetises products separately then yes, ORPH will only benefit from the products we have joint ownership of...
If, however, they go down an IPO route (here or on NASDAQ) then ORPH shareholders will benefit from the whole pipeline of products. And I would expect CF to drive a very hard bargain in this case. If you take away FLU-v and AGS-v then they have only 1 product at clinical stage development.
I've said before (just my opinion) that by packaging all of the products together it will slightly de-risk a NASDAQ floatation. It won't just be about investing in the Phase 3 trial of a universal flu vaccine - because the company has other products, including a covid play, in their pipeline.
And the universal Mosquito vaccine is also interesting - especially now that the Gates Foundation is starting to appear on the periphery. e.g Glenn Rockman, on the board of Codagenix (who ORPH seem to be very close to at the moment) launched the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation fund : https://codagenix.com/people/glenn-rockman/

"could just be they are very busy with existing orders"
That is exactly my point. Why partner with a company that is unable to make your product for four and a half months?
This should have set off more alarm bells than it did at the time.

Hi Bronxville - I think you've made a really good call there. Thinking back, CF has been talking up the Codagenix trial quite a bit... ( possible 7 year imunity, needle free etc. ) .
It might be there's a bit more to this relationship than just a client :-)

... should have set off alarm bells.
For clarity, I got out of this share after the first set of director shenanigans, at a loss. So I have no skin in this game anymore (but I do track share after I leave them because I think it is useful).

So an established manufacturer will take 3 months to produce masks - but a university department can get to 5million a month in a few weeks... Easy to see in hindsight. Good luck to everyone and I do hope this comes good for you.

This is where I struggle to price ORPH... Do we just see it as a Pharma Services company and look at 3x revenue?
It has no direct competitors and is rapidly advancing a technology side - does this change how we value it?
(I don't have answers for this. My gut feeling is that we should be using a higher multiplier.... but that is just my gut feeling)

The one person who knows exactly where every deal, and prospect deal, are currently - is targeting a Market Cap of 1 billion.
(https://audioboom.com/posts/7802076-open-orphan-ethics-approval-granted-for-their-covid-19-block-energy-on-first-gas-sales - listen from 6:45 for that specifically).
If you are new to ORPH please take a look at any of the CEO's previous presentations.
If you think 1 billion is unrealistic, start from here:
The Ethics committee approval greenlights a £46million government contract (for developing the challenge agent + 3 testing slots)
There are 3 (possibly 4) remaining testing slots at the current, government sponsored facility, in 2021)
That is about 80million worth of revenue this year - just on Covid challenge studies.
Covid challenge studies are not ORPH's core business.

If you want the full breakdown of ORPH's ongoing business, please check out Trader_3's posts on this board. He does excellent research and summation. Additional, any of the presentations from ORPH's ceo, Cathal Friel are worth listening to ( https://www.openorphan.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/year/2021 ). If you go back to the 2020 presentations - you will see that he has delivered on what he has said.

A market cap of 1 billion = a share price of about £1.50

If you are new to ORPH, and interested, take the time to do research on this company.

I'm off to open the nice bottle I saved for Ethics approval day :-)

Firstly, the media interest in this is going to be huge. ORPHs public profile is about to get notched up a few levels. Brilliant.
Secondly, the wearable deals will now include Covid 19 data. I would expect these to have already been drafted in anticipation. I also have a feeling these might get signed quite quickly (if they haven't already been signed). In my opinion, it is the Covid data that carries the highest value.
The approval is a pivot point. I've been very relaxed that this was coming - but it was great to read that RNS this morning :-)

Quite agree. I hold another ex-Woodford stock - Open Orphan (was hvivo when Woodford invested) which is doing fabulously.
Things might have gone wrong but he knew how to pick some winners.
Also, brilliant to see that tweet this morning

Hi Northseatiger
I'm now thinking that Seek are looking towards NASDAQ for Imutex.
To me it looks as though Seek are packaging it with other products to protect against being a 'one-product' company. In light of what just happened to Biondvax - this would make sense ahead of launch.
With AGS-v and now the tie up with Livermore, it is looking more like a portfolio - even though Imutex remains the high value item. I tend to agree with your valuation for Imutex as a sale item - but as a NASDAQ offering? Could be worth even more?
Excited and relaxed about the next few months/year with ORPH
Excited and less relaxed about tomorrows rugby.
Have a great weekend

Hi Chas
CF had a conference call with the CEOs of 7 of the largest Chinese pharmaceutical companies and the Chinese regulator.
He made a comment along the lines of 'a year ago we'd struggle to get one of these on a call'.
It seems as though they want ORPHs help to get started with challenge studies. On the more recent investor call, 30-40 million was mentioned in relation to this.
Potentially some very nice revenue...
(if anyone remembers more accurately, please correct me... )

This time (more) confirmation about the Covid Challenge Studies. This time from the Scottish Government's Covid advisory group
https://twitter.com/Eskers1/status/1359288854902157314
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-government-covid-19-advisory-group-minutes-21-january-2021/

This needs a nudge back to the top of the board I think...

Another great find Trader_3, thank you again.
I've been thinking a bit about this... I'd always imagined a future stage of the wearables-data collaboration as 'large scale' data gathering. Specifically, a wearable company would seek to gather health data from 10s of thousands of users - and use ORPHs unique and exact disease progression data to refine and calibrate it. This kind of 'feedback' loop can quickly produce extremely accurate results.
A sponsored rollout of wearables to healthcare settings in LMICs would be excellent PR (and would likely do a huge amount of good). The data gathered could then be used to sell a more refined product in more lucrative markets.
(and yes, I'm a massively cynical individual - who is only on his first coffee of the day - so please excuse the brutal commercial angle I'm taking).
The 'doctor on your wrist' may not be so far away...

Actually, I'm Welsh too - despite the nickname :-)
The red is a rather nice Cote de Nuits... and it is 'evaporating' quickly. How about yours Geoff?

I have far more optimism for ORPH than my nations chances in the rugby... Otherwise, I share your sentiments Geoffie :-)
(though I skipped the beer and went straight for the red). Have a great weekend yourself

Exactly. I remember CF saying that he doesn't like to announce approvals / the approval process. I can sort of understand this as it keeps the spotlight off the ethics committee.
Once the press get hold of this properly (and they will) then there likely be some sort of official statement.
Ducks are lining up nicely. Have a great weekend everyone - it is going to be an exciting few weeks :-)