Member Info for donalb

Tovoc, seeing things somewhat differently to you, best case Wressle ~10p, best case Inishkea ~ 30p

Only invested several months, after years of Barryroe losses, so past history & losses concerns me less.

Recent Past
In Aug 2019, previous (non-Green) Irish Gov granted the FEL,
In Mar 2020 Worldwide Covid pandemic & lockdowns.
In Mar 2021, couldn't give oil away, went technically negative, gas marginally better.
In Mar 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine & changed the world energy markets for year, gas prices still sky high.
In Oct 2022, Minister Ryan order multiple gas turbines, finally learning all renewables, need back-up.
In Nov 2022, Minister Ryan, under political, energy security & financial pressure, gave the license extension.

Predictions
By Q1 23, Vermillion closes out the Eqinor 35.5 % Corrib field purchase, administrative delays disappear.
In Q2 23, Europa & Vermillion will announce partnership & rapidly develop Inishkea & Corrib Deep.

By 2025, we are all rich :-)

Back to sleep now, perchance to dream !!!

DONALB

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/ireland-europa-oil-gas-converts-inishkea-into-frontier-exploration-license/

Space Hoppa, I fully agree with your legalistic outcome logic, but not with your future interest rates applicable.

Today, 12 month Euribour is 2.686% + 4 % = 6.686 %, & will only rise towards general European inflation rate + 4%.

So Italy, will end up paying somewhere between 6 - 14 % interest, for payment delays.

GLA; donalb

Sadly, that's another hopeful option taken away !!!!! He reads as a complete climate zealot & possibly delusional.

"Ryan and all other Green ministers, including the juniors, will stay in their posts after next month’s reshuffle, he confirmed. And he spoke not of short or medium-term political ambitions, but of a much bigger project."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/we-would-see-citizens-taking-action-eamon-ryan-on-the-public-suing-if-climate-targets-are-missed-and-how-irish-cities-could-be-uninhabitable-by-2100-42140002.html

Further research into Corrib ownership & implications,

Vermillion are 20% owner & operator of Corrib Gas Field & under legally binding agreements with Equinor, took over its 36.5% from Jan 1 2022, with a free cash flow correction upon final closing, to determine the final price paid.

This final closing is later than expected due "administrative delays", not sure if from Norway or Ireland, but sounds like Minister Ryan's usual block & delay tactics. Now expected to close in Q1 2023 (source - Vermillion Q3 Results)

Might this be responsible for a potential delay in a successful Europa & Vermillion partnership announcement ???

GLA, donalb

https://vermilionenergy.com/news/news.cfm?newsReleaseAction=view&releaseId=288

For those who were examining who might have the money, plus the best reasons to invest in Inishkea, who might get past Minister Ryan's upfront money license traps & who might greatly benefit by investing quickly to lower their windfall taxes, again I recommend Vermillion & Nephin.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/1111/1335630-record-gas-prices-lift-corrib-owners-revenues-to-190m/

GLA, donalb

For those who were examining who might have the money, plus the best reasons to invest in Inishkea, who might get past Minister Ryan's upfront money license traps & who might greatly benefit by investing quickly to lower their windfall taxes, again I recommend Vermillion & Nephin.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/1111/1335630-record-gas-prices-lift-corrib-owners-revenues-to-190m/

GLA, donalb

https://barryroeoffshoreenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/BarryroeOffshoreEnergy_Submission.pdf

Hi OSG,
good news for sure as you outlined, but my own guess is that it's really a triple combo of lowered US inflation expectations, thus lowered world inflation rates, plus Putin leaving Kherson, tail between his legs & leaving the Gereral's to handle the hard explanations, plus possibly the end of the very Dangerous Orange Donald (no relation :-)

For Easy to move quicker than TUI, it's not surprising, the price of fuel, recession risks, inflation, etc, affect a predominantly airline company differently than a majority holiday company with an airline attached !!!

GLA, donalb

Immediate response to my post from "Rocklawn":

"It’s amazing how u feel u are a lot wiser than so of the major investors in this company including like him or not LG with a 16pc holding …then again these people love loosing money that’s why their RICH …get off the bus u clown before u post more idiotic messages"

And this response is from an investor who admits in his postings, to having lost a packet here these 40 years !

Rocklawn - Thick as a Brick !

Looks like LG will lose his money like the rest of us, and go down with the bad ship Barryroe !!!

GLA et "sauve qui peut",

DONALB

Inishkea, Inishkea, Inishkea - It is not a Korean car company :-) Thank you all very much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inishkea_Islands

More importantly, look at how much Vermillion paid in Nov 2021, with a now, shi$ty 70% of its 2022 production hedged.

It's now a completely new gas price & field evaluation world since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the massive European nat gas price increases in effect & looking like it's remaining high for the near foreseeable future.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/equinor-exits-ireland-with-sale-gas-field-stake-2021-11-29/

I will stick with my longterm 25-30 total guestimate !!!

GLA, donalb

More casual Inishkea reading !

https://www.europaoil.com/operations/ireland/

See EOG field estimates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrib_gas_project

Corrib - proven 1 Trillion Field.

Of major note is how much Vermillion paid in 2021 for a 6 year's in operation controlling stake.

"In 2021, Vermilion acquired Equinor's 36.5% stake for $434 million (€382 million), becoming the majority owner of the gas field."

Never could figure out MilleBOE, MBOE, MMBOE & million BOE.

Every conversion site I tried gives wildly different figures.

GLA

Thanks CAR3Y for the nod, the cig packet calculations & for better messaging the natural synergies between an Inishkea & Corrib gas partnership and the clear messages from Vemillion/Nephin, that they are looking to extend their field & facilities life.

On the other Irish Times link from Aug30 22:

"Improving the Co Mayo terminal’s existing technology could lengthen the field’s life, while there are hopes that there are other reserves nearby that could also be exploited."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/30/corrib-owners-look-to-extend-gas-fields-life/

I would even "guesstimate" that EOG might secure a better deal, more like 25-30% free carry, due to the rarity & proximity of their license to Corrib, Corrib's approaching end of life/profitability/dismantlement profile and with a much lower cost of development due to the huge existing infrastructure in place & fewer planning permission/challenges delays.

I am up for a long term 25-30 bagger :-)

DYOR, GLA, DONALB

Things are looking very positive recently, Toddler must be turning over in his pram :-)

GLA, donalb

I just read the LOGP RNS, its usually a near copy paste of PVR/BEY, but theirs is a scathing report, with lots of extra detail and fully speaks its mind.

I expect LOGP are recording & notarising, every communication attempt & non reply, all DECC mistakes, all new rule changes in practice & effect, for a future a LOGP Energy Charter Treaty case, for "abuse of process", etc, etc.

Expect a "money rule" may be in the air too.

GLA, db

PS - looks like I will be harvesting my tax losses soon.

What better future partners than our next door neighbours, with nearby piping & processing facility & gas grid connections, Corrib field's owners, Vermillion & Nephin (Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board).

They too are keen to "expand" to Deep Corrib to extend its life, so a tie up with a next door prospect must be very attractive, timely, great use of infrastructure, trained staff & a relatively speedy option.

And SO is fond of Canadians :-)

GLA, donalb

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/30/corrib-owners-look-to-extend-gas-fields-life/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/nephin-energy-records-59m-loss-despite-14m-profit-from-gas-sales-1.4701908

https://vermilionenergy.com/about-us/overview-about-us.cfm

Porkpies, re Ireland, there was Barryroe movement from Ryan's department this week (See BEY RNS).

After months & years of delay, they are now demanding BEY show proof of "maybe" €80E to prove they have the financial backing for an assessment drill, under updated rules & they gave them only 3 weeks to prove this.

EOG may fall into a similar license scenario, if they are not best prepared.

GLA

EOG

As most expected, Italy has decided to try to annul the €190M plus 6 yrs of interest of 12 Month Euribor + 4%.

So ~ €250M - 20% for legal fees leaves about ~€200M Pre-Tax for Rockhopper.

€200M / £1.16 / 582M outstanding shares = ~ 29.6 p(£) award per share pre-tax

Current price ~ 9.8 p.

Chances of success for Rockhopper in any annulment procedure ~90-95% (based on past case outcomes) & process duration typically 18-24 months.

Interest will accrue from Jan 23 on ~€200M at the rate of Euribor +4% during the procedure, ie, ~6+% while waiting.

QED, 90-95% chance to triple your money in 2 years & 5-10% risk to maybe half your money.

There are also the options of Rockhopper selling this debt for ~60-80% of award value &/or a company takeover at a fair price, as their huge Sea Lion oil project, off the Falkland Islands is moving forward successfully.

This delay also prevents Rockhopper from wasting this win for 1-2 yrs, whilst also earning ~6+%.

It's a no brainer for newer shareholders like myself & a great chance for LTH's to average down, if possible.

And if new money has to be raised in the next 12-24-36 months, it would be raised on the basis of a ~92.5% chance of Rockhopper having ~€250M in the bank.

GLA, "doubling down" donalb.

Godders, very sorry to hear that you are now insolvent, never easy & with only 23 months to live.

My advice is sell up quick & try to enjoy the rest of your days.

You will be in everyone's prayers here.

This one is for Godders :-)

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=song+down+down&view=detail&mid=DB68EAEED38B8C1E0638DB68EAEED38B8C1E0638&FORM=VIRE0&ru=%2fsearch%3fq%3dsong%2bdown%2bdown%26form%3dANNTH1%26refig%3d9b0513df1aae42dda5ed8a36ef9da5a3

Big buzz in France about a huge lithium mine's proposed development by Imerys, all over the news, so lithium is drawing fresh European interest & subsidies/investments.

https://www.france24.com/en/business/20221024-france-s-imerys-announces-lithium-mining-project-aims-to-become-eu-s-top-supplier

GLA, db