Member Info for Doc83

Iceman888 give it a rest! None of your attempts to ramp this are working!

Hi, interesting posts by Liquid1. I posted some questions last night but no one answered:

"Evening Girls/Guys,

I noticed QBT has moved up considerably over last few trading days and asked a friend who is into crypto (and positive on it) to give me his views on whether this is worth investing in. His answer was no, although I have ignored this and taken a very small position in my portfolio (therefore this is not a de-ramp, like many will no doubt claim so they can get away without giving me their considered views and arguments against his comments). His comments were:

1) Quantum computers don't exist. If a country managed to make a working quantum computer, that could crunch data like the world needs it to, that country would be the world's superpower forever.
2) Cryptographic optimisation (SHA256) has been around for a long time. This cryptography is used by nearly every tech company on the planet. I do not see how a small company can improve on decades of cryptography work.
3) AI and ML - AI doesn't truly exist, only ML or advance ML. Any AI that does exist has something called a narrow intelligence which is relatively straightforward these days with the power of the cloud. They might make some good AI/ML models, but doubtful they would move the needle in this space.
4) ASIC development - Are they a chip company or software company? It is difficult to be both.

As I said, I am now a small holder of QBT and have added to my portfolio to add some spice. But would be interested to hear some views on those comments from the more knowledgeable members on this BB. I tend to take numbers like 3p to £3 from some posters on here with a pinch of salt, as they seem to just be plucked out of the air with nothing to back them up!"

Silence Therapeutics (SLN) have recently announced they are delisting from AIM and listing on the NASDAQ.

It will be interesting to see how that works out for them...

Mact4, surely a drug works or not, and that is the reason it passes through to the next phase?

I did make the point previously of wanting to see the data so we could see whether SNG just scraped through to the next stage or sailed through but was given short shrift and told something like my first paragraph!

Evening Girls/Guys,

I noticed QBT has moved up considerably over last few trading days and asked a friend who is into crypto (and positive on it) to give me his views on whether this is worth investing in. His answer was no, although I have ignored this and taken a very small position in my portfolio (therefore this is not a de-ramp, like many will no doubt claim so they can get away without giving me their considered views and arguments against his comments). His comments were:

1) Quantum computers don't exist. If a country managed to make a working quantum computer, that could crunch data like the world needs it to, that country would be the world's superpower forever.
2) Cryptographic optimisation (SHA256) has been around for a long time. This cryptography is used by nearly every tech company on the planet. I do not see how a small company can improve on decades of cryptography work.
3) AI and ML - AI doesn't truly exist, only ML or advance ML. Any AI that does exist has something called a narrow intelligence which is relatively straightforward these days with the power of the cloud. They might make some good AI/ML models, but doubtful they would move the needle in this space.
4) ASIC development - Are they a chip company or software company? It is difficult to be both.

As I said, I am now a small holder of QBT and have added to my portfolio to add some spice. But would be interested to hear some views on those comments from the more knowledgeable members on this BB. I tend to take numbers like 3p to £3 from some posters on here with a pinch of salt, as they seem to just be plucked out of the air with nothing to back them up!

I don’t mind going to more than one party?!

If the chances of P3 success are genuinely 80-90% (and I really hope they are!) then I cannot fathom why the SP isn’t considerably higher? If successful, I can’t see how this isn’t worth many £billions.

Davidol22, my understanding is that phase 3 trials are successful anywhere between 60-80% of the time. I’m basing my investment decision on the very low end (seems sensible) and pointing out that even at 50-60% chance of success, the potential upside is very attractive.

I hope you’re right. Just trying to keep my feet on the ground and not get too carried away.

I suppose we have to ask ourselves what probability we put on SNG to pass phase 3 successfully? I personally am saying 50/50, maybe 60/40.

If successful, what price would SNG go to? For me, a minimum of £10.

In summary, I have an even chance to lose £2 or make an extra £8. Looks a great risk/reward bet for me.

It possibly is drivel, as I don't have a huge understanding of small oil exploration stocks. However, plenty of articles online which seem to suggest $50 per barrel is fair.

He is a recent study on the breakeven costs of oil per country:

https://knoema.com/infographics/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

We all know Saudi Arabia is the cheapest producer, but it seems to vary a lot. I was just keen to work out what is the cost per barrel for MATD?

And ultimately the most important question, what is their margin/profit per barrel from which we can work out what MATD could be worth?

One I’m not familiar with…
Acacia Research - 1.59%

Holders right down to a few shares on there. Of course, most buy through the likes of HL, FIL etc.

Matml74,

Tikvah - 4,845,074 / 2.41%
Venrock - 0

I have a Bloomberg terminal. Leonard Licht has 4,419,975 shares /2.2%.

Hi girls/guys,

I took part in the fund raise in July at 3.5p per share. I'll be honest, this was complete punt and I only put 2% of my portfolio in it without hardly any research. Because it is such a small part of my portfolio, I haven't spent any time keeping up to date with it, other than the odd cursory look at the share price every so often.

I see it has drifted some 20% lower (this does not bother me, as I know how stocks like MATD behave) but thought it about time I do some more reading up on it ( I have also had a read through some of the comments on this BB).

So, I can see that MATD says it can pull 60 million barrels out of Heron. Oil is c.$80 per barrel, but a quick look suggests that it costs approximately $50 dollar per barrel to get it out of the ground and refine it. I appreciate Saudi Arabia are more like $10-15, with the US and Canada somewhere in between. However, if we call it $50 cost per barrel, that leaves $30 per barrel profit. at 60m barrels x $30 = $1.8bn (£1.3bn).
One thing I can't find is the licensing costs, but even at a smallish P/E of 5x, there appears, on the face of it, potential incredible value.

I recall Rockhopper Exploration, going many multiples higher, but it seems like at 2.75p per share MATD represent a great risk/reward bet.

Can anyone please tell me if I have missed anything (from a very high level perspective)?

Appreciate your thoughts, and please be kind!

My view remains that Polygon have enough shares now. I would be very concerned indeed if they got to 30% and beyond. Unfortunately, while plenty of us on here would hold fast for £10-20+, there are many investors that, for example if Polygon offered to buy them out for £5, would be happy to sell… it’s still a hell of a return, after all.

I just don’t see the positives of Polygon obtaining more shares than they now already do. They can already block a hostile takeover.
I know there was an argument about the free float and more sticker II’s being good for price stability (although them messing around with options and CFD trading can cause instability) but personally I’m not trying to day trade SNG and ultimately don’t much care what the SP does between now and the end game.

Sometimes you can have all the facts and figures in the world, but your gut instinct still tells you more. My gut instinct with Polygon…well, they just make me feel very wary.

Would love to be proven wrong and if they end up being responsible for grinding out £50 per share from an AstraZeneca, I’ll eat a hat made of £50 notes.

MM's have an 8p/4% spread on a stock with good liquidity right now. They are quite frankly having everyone's pants down.

Polygon have had a quiet word with the MM's... not happy paying £2+ for their top up.

I’m very positive but I would’ve loved to have seen the Activ-2 data. Hopefully it was amazing, but perhaps it was merely ok and because it’s quite a novel idea they wanted to give it every chance. We just don’t know, so still a lot of uncertainty, even if I do think we are better than 50/50.

EUA and takeovers get brought up a lot. For those more knowledgeable than I am with investing in stocks like SNG, how often are they actually bought out when all they/we have is decent phase 2 results?

I would assume that the vast majority get bid for once phase 3 is successful? This would be my preference, otherwise I’d guess that SNG would get bid for at around £5-10. I can’t imagine a large pharma would pay more when at this stage when there are still risks.