Member Info for dickupham

Https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-insanity-of-net-zero-and-how-to-tackle-it/

.........."DU - I assume that despite all of this you 'remain in' in regard to JOG".........

..........you assume correctly, Surety. Long & strong - expecting some significant newsflow in the coming weeks...................

I'm pretty sure I've posted the below link before, but I'll do so again. Data & facts vs ill-informed theory. I can't recall now who started all this man-made climate change nonsense. It now has it that those whose thought processes are such that they don't automatically believe everything that's stated by the BBC, left wing media, tree-huggers et al to be "scientific fact", are presented as lunatics, when the reverse is actually the case. The emperor is alive and well and wearing the finest silks.

I prefer to believe the data and opinions outlined in the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-Iu1i317E

There's a lot in the first 10-12 mins for those too busy to listen to the full 44 mins. Also the last 4 mins which summarises the issues quite succinctly.

Tell others.

dyor

What's below is courtesy of D220 on the SQZ board earlier. My comment is the industry must do something to counter the deliverately misleading information being put out by Labour. The Conservatives might be cowardly and deceitful, but they're not a patch on the Labour liars. A proper windfall tax would be fine, but what they (and to a lesser extent the cowardly Conservatives) are promoting is much more than just a WFT. It's a North Sea destroyer. Treason if you ask me. Needless to say the dim-witted masses swallow it all without question. Turkeys voting for Christmas. They'll find out.

"From Telegraph:
"Shell is looking to sell its stake in a controversial North Sea oil field after Labour accused the Conservatives of failing to bring in a "proper windfall taxes" on energy giants.

The oil company is looking for a buyer for its 30pc holding in the Cambo oil project, its partner Ithaca Energy has said.

Cambo, which is the second-largest undeveloped oil and gas discovery in the North Sea, has been the focal point of many protests.

Shell has been rumoured for months to be looking for someone to take over its part. The remaining 70pc of the oil field is owned by Ithaca Energy.

In 2021 Shell scrapped its development plans for the project, putting its future into doubt.

Today’s announcement comes after the company made nearly $1.7bn (£1.4bn) more in profit than experts had predicted in the first three months of the year, with adjusted earnings rising 5.7pc to $9.6bn (£7.6bn).

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "Shell reports £7.6bn profits for its first quarter yet the Tories refuse to bring in a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to freeze council tax this year, as Labour would.

"We'll tackle the cost-of-living crisis, and put working people first.""

..........just as a reminder, when JOG and CIECO farmed out 70% of Licence P2170 (Verbier) to Statoil (now Equinor) in 2016, it was the first farm out done in the NS for more than 3 years.

The politicians' logic is deeply flawed. To them it's all about votes - and they've got the sheeple believing UK oil & gas cos are the enemy, as they readily acknowledge when they use their compulsory latest Apple ipad, jump in their cars to attend the next 'just stop oil' demonstration or otherwise carry on using (without thought) any number of the 6,000 products in daily use that rely on oil for their manufacture. Hypocrites the lot - and at an astronomical level.

It is high time the industryput some hard facts into the public domain, instead of mild complaints, occasionally including polite threats to concentrate future efforts elsewhere. We need to see initiative and leadership. It will be too late by the time Labour's threats become reality

Cyril - don't you just love this bit of the article: "The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that oil and gas receipts will reach £11bn in 2022-23, up sharply from receipts of about £300m two years earlier, meaning it could be the perfect time for North Sea oil revenues to be put to work helping to reduce Britain’s need for new North Sea projects in the future".

The Guardian scribe doesn't seem to consider the faint possibility the O&G industry as a whole will put two fingers up to the greedy, unprincipled and economically incompetent politicians whose unworkable plan is to get the industry to take significant risks with billions of shareholders' money for next to no return - and will move to fairer pastures. Only something like 1 of every 20 exploration drills leads to a commercially discovery. The costs of each drill are generally upwards of $25m. The time the whole process takes can run into decades. Brown's twisted logic went something like: "it takes you 10 years and 20 drills to get a commercial find. So it's only fair you get to keep 40% of the profits from the 1 in 20 that's commercial and we'll get 60% for contributing nothing - in fact making everything more difficult because of the mountains of bureaucracy and red tape we'll create". Brown's idiocy took about 3 to 5 years to feed through. Dozens of UK operators moved their efforts elsewhere. Oil & gas tax revenues dried up completely, so little interest was there in the NS, which became one of the most expensive territories to operate in, as lower volumes led to fewer opportunities to recover fixed costs incurred by infrastructure organisations and the like. Tens of thousands of skilled jobs were lost forever through Brown's folly. Not least because he didn't get to tax the people whose careers he had destroyed.

What Stoma is now proposing is even worse.

My opinion of Juliet Hartley-Brewer (Talk TV SKY Ch 522 - 6.30am to 9am Mon-Thurs) went down a lot this morning. Normally a vigorous defender of everything that makes sense to people like me and no doubt many others on here, she announced this morning: "Shell has recorded a profit in the 1st quater of $9.6bn. This is eveen higher than BP announced on Tuesday. If you want to know why your energy bills are so high, now you know".

Utter ignorance. I intend to let her know. They're all the same. Anything to cause a sensation, no matter how little effort is made to understand the basics. EG: What are the respective global sales of Shell & BP that have led to profits as declared? BP & Shell don't tell the world the sales volumes they achieved to make the reported profits. What about the 2020 Covid losses? And the return on capital the reported profits represent? And there's no mention of the dividends only representing a 4 or 5% return on investment for shareholders, when they could earn a risk-free return of c.4% in a Post Office account.

Dim or dishonest people - everywhere you look........

all imo
dyor

Below is an extract from LBE's RNS issued on Tuesday relating to inward investment by a sizable Japanese O&G player :

"Norway continues to offer an attractive regulatory framework including a recent change in the Petroleum Tax System, which has resulted in significantly improved economics of new development projects. The main elements of the new system are the introduction of immediate expensing of investments, 71.8% repayment of all losses in the following year (compared to previously 72% of exploration losses only) and a corporate tax at 6.2% carried forward against future profits. The marginal tax rate remains unchanged at 78% but return on investments in development projects is significantly improved and the total capital requirements substantially reduced".

Kier Starmer is promising UKCS E&P companies 78% tax on their total profits AND the withdrawal of enhanced (perhaps all?) investment relief when Labour gets in next year. He claims this is feasible and acceptable because "that's the rate charged in Norway" (quite what Norway has to do with anything the UK decides to do is beyond me - maybe I'm just slow?). As can be seen from the above (and numerous internet sites providing information about Norwegian O&G taxes) there is a vast difference between what Starmer (or Stoma, as I call him because what comes out of them is much the same) and the truth. All Labour politicians are peddling the same lies about "a proper windfall tax". God knows how many times I've screamed at the television as the same myths are trotted out by the politicians. And it is NEVER rigorously challenged by the dim-witted news presenters, journalists and whoever else Labour is promising that "a proper windfall tax" will pay for everything in their marxist manifesto - you know how it goes. Money promised to the voters about £100bn - actual take (and a rapidly declining one as oilcos quit the NS in droves) about £10bn if conditions remain stable - they won't for long in the UK if Stoma and the proven t.wat Milliband get their way.

"The OBR currently forecast tax receipts over the six-year period 2022/23 to 2027/28 will average £8.6 billion, up from an average of £0.8 billion over the six years to 2021/22.": https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00341/
The reasons for the low take in the 6 years to 2021/22 include COVID and Brent Crude falling off a cliff in 2016. Tax receipts felll to £0 in 2 successive years in the mid-part of the decade and practically £0 in the year after. This was more than just partly as a result of the O&G industry's reaction to Gordon Brown steadily increasing the supplementary charge so that tax paid by O&G cos increased to 60%. Self-defeating. The clown Osborne then increased it to 62% when Brown was kicked out in 2010. Eventually it was put back to 40% in about 2015. Investment then slowly began to recover......... now they're at it again.

What was it Einstein said about insanity?

all jmo
dyor

Below is an extract from LBE's RNS issued on Tuesday relating to inward investment by a sizable Japanese O&G player :

"Norway continues to offer an attractive regulatory framework including a recent change in the Petroleum Tax System, which has resulted in significantly improved economics of new development projects. The main elements of the new system are the introduction of immediate expensing of investments, 71.8% repayment of all losses in the following year (compared to previously 72% of exploration losses only) and a corporate tax at 6.2% carried forward against future profits. The marginal tax rate remains unchanged at 78% but return on investments in development projects is significantly improved and the total capital requirements substantially reduced".

Kier Starmer is promising UKCS E&P companies 78% tax on their total profits AND the withdrawal of enhanced (perhaps all?) investment relief when Labour gets in next year. He claims this is feasible and acceptable because "that's the rate charged in Norway" (quite what Norway has to do with anything the UK decides to do is beyond me - maybe I'm just slow?). As can be seen from the above (and numerous internet sites providing information about Norwegian O&G taxes) there is a vast difference between what Starmer (or Stoma, as I call him because what comes out of them is much the same) and the truth. All Labour politicians are peddling the same lies about "a proper windfall tax". God knows how many times I've screamed at the television as the same myths are trotted out by the politicians. And it is NEVER rigorously challenged by the dim-witted news presenters, journalists and whoever else Labour is promising that "a proper windfall tax" will pay for everything in their marxist manifesto - you know how it goes. Money promised to the voters about £100bn - actual take (and a rapidly declining one as oilcos quit the NS in droves) about £10bn if conditions remain stable - they won't for long in the UK if Stoma and the proven t.wat Milliband get their way.

"The OBR currently forecast tax receipts over the six-year period 2022/23 to 2027/28 will average £8.6 billion, up from an average of £0.8 billion over the six years to 2021/22.": https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00341/
The reasons for the low take in the 6 years to 2021/22 include COVID and Brent Crude falling off a cliff in 2016. Tax receipts felll to £0 in 2 successive years in the mid-part of the decade and practically £0 in the year after. This was more than just partly as a result of the O&G industry's reaction to Gordon Brown steadily increasing the supplementary charge so that tax paid by O&G cos increased to 60%. Self-defeating. The clown Osborne then increased it to 62% when Brown was kicked out in 2010. Eventually it was put back to 40% in about 2015. Investment then slowly began to recover......... now they're at it again.

What was it Einstein said about insanity?

all jmo
dyor

Below is an extract from LBE's RNS issued on Tuesday relating to inward investment by a sizable Japanese O&G player :

"Norway continues to offer an attractive regulatory framework including a recent change in the Petroleum Tax System, which has resulted in significantly improved economics of new development projects. The main elements of the new system are the introduction of immediate expensing of investments, 71.8% repayment of all losses in the following year (compared to previously 72% of exploration losses only) and a corporate tax at 6.2% carried forward against future profits. The marginal tax rate remains unchanged at 78% but return on investments in development projects is significantly improved and the total capital requirements substantially reduced".

Kier Starmer is promising UKCS E&P companies 78% tax on their total profits AND the withdrawal of enhanced (perhaps all?) investment relief when Labour gets in next year. He claims this is feasible and acceptable because "that's the rate charged in Norway" (quite what Norway has to do with anything the UK decides to do is beyond me - maybe I'm just slow?). As can be seen from the above (and numerous internet sites providing information about Norwegian O&G taxes) there is a vast difference between what Starmer (or Stoma, as I call him because what comes out of them is much the same) and the truth. All Labour politicians are peddling the same lies about "a proper windfall tax". God knows how many times I've screamed at the television as the same myths are trotted out by the politicians. And it is NEVER rigorously challenged by the dim-witted news presenters, journalists and whoever else Labour is promising that "a proper windfall tax" will pay for everything in their marxist manifesto - you know how it goes. Money promised to the voters about £100bn - actual take (and a rapidly declining one as oilcos quit the NS in droves) about £10bn if conditions remain stable - they won't for long in the UK if Stoma and the proven t.wat Milliband get their way.

"The OBR currently forecast tax receipts over the six-year period 2022/23 to 2027/28 will average £8.6 billion, up from an average of £0.8 billion over the six years to 2021/22.": https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00341/
The reasons for the low take in the 6 years to 2021/22 include COVID and Brent Crude falling off a cliff in 2016. Tax receipts felll to £0 in 2 successive years in the mid-part of the decade and practically £0 in the year after. This was more than just partly as a result of the O&G industry's reaction to Gordon Brown steadily increasing the supplementary charge so that tax paid by O&G cos increased to 60%. Self-defeating. The clown Osborne then increased it to 62% when Brown was kicked out in 2010. Eventually it was put back to 40% in about 2015. Investment then slowly began to recover......... now they're at it again.

What was it Einstein said about insanity?

all jmo
dyor

"what an awful day for the oil price"........

.......not the case for GS and JPM I suspect.............

everhopeful - I'd agree with you if both the Conservatives and Labour weren't intent on destroying what remains of the NS.......

Have you ever thought of doing some analysis yourself. oggleflugal.

Thanks for popping in to advise gullible types like me and other poor misguided souls of the kind to be found here as LTHs, to be extra careful not to take any notice of newspapers articles and analysts' reports that , as far as my limited knowledge of the world of investment and finance generally allows me to judge, only ever set out the facts, before then working out what fair value might be, based on regognised investment metrics.

As a matter of interest, do you happen to know what qualifications Naked Trader has that make anything he writes or says worthy of serious consideration? I'd urge caution if you're a slave to his writings, based on what I can deduce based on his website. https://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/agree.htm

Don't think you'll find JOG a particularly easy share to short, although I dare say some crooked discretionary broker or other - or maybe one or more of the internet brokers - might be willing to lend shares they don't own.

Have a nice day

PoS

yeah - we're lovers. Or perhaps would be in other circumstances.............

In a sentence, dumb people are too dumb to understand how dumb they are.

If the cap fits..............

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Brendan Long of WH Ireland.........."Jersey Oil & Gas announced the successful farmout of its interest in the Greater Buchan Area (“GBA”) to NEO Energy on 6 April 2023. We believe the transaction is the most important development in the history of Jersey Oil & Gas – it is an unambiguously positive and transformative development. We are ascribing Jersey Oil & Gas with a fair value estimate of 684p.............."

dyor

Courtesy of a few posters on other boards today:
"part of IC article today:
.....The financial press has also reported that the government will make changes to the energy profits levy (EPL). It realises that charging it on all profits rather than just ‘windfalls’ was self-defeating. North Sea operators are cutting investment in the region, hitting jobs, reducing the UK’s energy security, and ultimately increasing the release of carbon as imported liquid natural gas (LNG) takes its place. If the government does modify the EPL, it should improve sentiment towards the sector."

I CAN spell, Einbert, although I am less adept at typing. Maybe the chunk of my left leg the medics cut out on Saturday has affected my keyboard skills, as I now see I was also "usuing" conservative assumptions.

Analorgy? Never been to one of those. The mind boggles. Maybe one or two posters on here might be able to throw more light on the hobby/pastime (note sp)

:-)

What right does RQ have to question your moral compass, JS?

Maybe the same right you and your mate Dave have to libel Andrew Benitz and others in every post you make.

Whilst it is an unusual occurrence, action for libel has been taken in the past against posters on discussion forums like this, when an individual (or individuals) have made false statements that have caused damage to the relevant company, or to the reputation of those responsible for running it. You seem to place a great deal of reliance on the truthfulness of Dave's reports about his conversation/s and email exchange/s with AB

Turning to more productive matters, it occurred to me this morning that there is perhaps something of an anology in JOG's SP failing to reflect what I and many other LT investors and analysts saw as a game changing event, as announced by the Company on 6 April (FO to Neo Energy). As we all know, the SP has barely moved.

Back in 2016, about a year into JOG's new life (on 23 August 2016 to be precise), JOG announced out of the blue that it had agreed a FO of Licence P2170 (Verbier) to Statoil (now called Equinor). I read the RNS at 7am and expected the SP to double on the news when the market opened at 8am. The FO was subject only to the usual legal niceties and formal approval from DECC (Dept for Energy & Climate Change). Not a bit of it. The SP hardly flickered (it was about 35p at the time). Yet on 6 October, when it was announced that the "conditions precedent" had been satisfied, the SP doubled to 70p on that day. And it doubled again over the next few months. A total failure by the market to understand.

Given that 4 well-respected analysts have a fair value as things stand of (from memory) 650-850p per share, it looks as if the market might again have failed to understand something transformational.

I guess the market is waiting to see the secondary farm-out completed? Or maybe the completion of the Neo FO? There's no logic to it, so it's probably best to stay long and strong, or even add? Patience is still the name of the game it would seem.

Potential investors seems to be missing the fact that the worst case scenario for JOG is that it retains a fully carried 12.5% of GBA which, usuing conservative assumptions, should produce an annual profit before tax of something that's close to today's market cap (ie the total amount the market says JOG is worth).

Double this and then some and I might start to take the SP seriously.

There must be a significant risk of a bidder emerging and offering something a lot less than than fair value. If JOG can get to FDP with two partners and 20-25% of the GBA fields, LTHs should be very well rewarded. 12-18 Months? Incremental progress when the 2nd FO is announced.

I would expect discussions with potential second partners to be going on as we speak. How long it will take to finalise terms is difficult to gauge.
All the time in the background is Sunakhunt, to bring fear and uncertainty
GL

Oh, shut up will you, BM? You know perfectly well I didn't intend anything nasty in the comment: "I expect your mother likes you" - it's a throw away line I and some others use to illustrate a point. You're typical of the woke brigade who look for reasons to be mortally offended by anything and everything they see or experience. No doubt you also think the ships on Man U's and Man C's shirt logos should be removed because they might be connected with the slave trade (which ended best part of a century before either club was formed). According to one complainant (who claimed Afro-Caribbean ancestry) the people of Manchester should be ashamed of their City's history. Funnily enough, she chooses to live there.

As for the nasty personal insults you throw at me without justification, frankly I couldn't care less what you think and what you don't. For the record, I abhor people who reveal on a public forum what could be extremely damaging information they've come by through deception. And make unqualified derogatory and insulting statements about talented, hard-working individuals who are giving their all in the longer term interests of shareholders - including themselves, because their future prosperity is dependent on the success or otherwise of JOG. When JOG reversed into TRAP and raised £800k in a placing to provide working capital (there was nothing left in TRAP except its listing, losses and a few assorted licences) it had a market cap of £1.7m. Today it is £85m (should be closer to £150m in my book). Tomorrow? Who knows? But I doubt the plan is to stop just yet.

Over the course of the nearly 8 years since TRAP became JOG, I have come to know and have great respect for JOG's founder directors - also others in the team - for their efforts andfor what they have achieved, particularly having started with so little. But above all, they are people of integrity.

Imagine how you would feel if you constantly read of comments like "bungling Benitz" and worse - splashed on a public forum by someone with a loud mouth and little else to recommend him, even though he would claim otherwise - and with no ability (or probable desire) to respond because it would be beneath him. And all because you haven't achieved your "target" of £3.50 in whatever timescale you set.

Anyone with any experience and knowledge would know that it isn't the directors' responsibility to talk the share price up or down. Share prices are always the result of supply and demand. If the market makers have surplus shares, they drop the price to attract buyers - the reverse also applies. In a stock like JOG, where there are quite a few individual holders of a reasonable number of shares they're holding for the longer term, they can't keep buying when weak holders or short term traders decide to "sell on the news" (no matter what the news is). And JOG doesn't yet meet most institutions' minimum requirements as to "investment grade".

Enough - I'm done.

dyor