Member Info for dickupham

BM - guess we'll soon get to find out how clever you were in dumping 75% of your holding in JOG...............we'll all bow to your greater wisdom.

You too, JamesS

Apologies, BM - I should have said: "I expect your mother liked you and thought you were clever". Yes, I believe my own mother (d.1995) and my father (d.1998) liked me too, until they ran away from home when I was 13.

As to Xcite Energy (XEL) are you seriously saying you've gone back 8 years or more of my posting history to dig up XEL and the investment advice you falsely claim I gave? I posted almost exclusively on Interactive Investor until it went into liquidation (note, not bankruptcy, which relates only to individuals) until whoever was in charge there at the time (c.2015?) decided to fix something that wasn't broken and the blog lost its purpose. So I'm not sure what posts you mean. S/Hs in XEL were the subject of what I believe was serious fraud, which I pursued (together with a limited number of other experienced and intelligent former shareholders) until it became clear s/hs were regarded by certain key "bodies" as "collateral damage". In a nutshell, because the listed company (XEL) was registered in the BVI, shareholders were unable to access the accounts actually filed there, which contained information that was critical in understanding the risks posed by XER (the UK company that held the Bentley Licence - NPV 10 of $1.5bn - 266mmboe of 2P of which 226mmboe was 1P) having borrowed $130m from a small group of hedge funds hiding behind a front in Norway. My mistake (if it can be described as such) was in believing that a UK liquidator of XER (XEL's subsidiary) should easily be able to realise enough from a sale of the Bentley Field (in XER) not only to redeem the debt, but pay all other creditors (minimal) leaving enough to hive up to XEL to pay out to shareholders. Unbeknown to me (or anyone else who wasn't in on the scam) it emerged the parent had signed a sweep-all "guarantee" to the hedge funds covering their loan, which a tame BVI liquidator found acceptable for them to have "called in", with no formal demand being made on the company that actually owed the money (XER) and held the Bentley licence. The BVI liquidator then decided it was in order for him to sell XER (inc the Bentley licence and the losses) to the hedge funds for $1. Nice work. The OGA, at that time headed by one Andy Samuel, found it expedient to extend the time available to the new licence holders to work through their (imo) dishonest plans, by 4 years. Many requests for information under the Freedom of Information Act were made by the small group of shareholders I refer to above, but so much was redacted ("not in the public interest, see?") that it became impossible to make progress.

As to what I know and what I don't know, what I do know is that I've probably forgotten more then you'll ever learn, however long you live.

I don't like the Serica deal because I don't trust Mercuria not to take it private in 18 months. Luckily for me my avge cost is 22p and owes me nothing.

GL - seems to me you'll need it

dyor

.........."I agree much more with JS than with DU".

That explains everything. You demonstrate judgment one can only envy.

Why not dump the other 25% and concentrate on boring the pants off another company's long term shareholders, instead of those on here? I would be extremely surprised if anyone who's done any serious research about JOG, the people behind it, the industry in general and the workings of the market, have found anything you've said remotely useful, in the short time you've been here shouting your mouth off. It's as palin as a pikestaff (to me at least) that you have no relevant experience of anything to share with anyone and you haven't got a clue about the workings of the corporate world.

I expect your mother likes you and thinks you're clever...........

dyor

......."In the case of the Chief Executive Officer a portion of the New Shares have been sold to cover the Director's tax liabilities which have arisen as a result of the exercise"...........

.........Mitch has to be careful - can't be seen to be having any of his own money invested in the Company...........

"do I get the feeling you are selling Jog and Serica and now investing in HBR?"................

...........I don't know what felings you get, James. They are (and shall always remain) a mystery to me.

What I do know is that you appear to be severely challenged by the mysteries of the investment world. Has anyone explained the general theory to you? In bried, this is to sell shares at a price that's higher than you paid when you bought them. It's tricky I know, but if you ask an average schoolchild (avoiding the ones with gender issues) how to go about the process generally, I'm sure they'd be able to help.

I was fortunate in that I asked my close personal four-legged friend, Henry (who has since sadly passed away) back in 2015 what he thought I should do when JOG reversed into Trapoil (of which I owned just short of 1%). He advised me to buy 22.5 times the number of shares my holding in TRAP bought me in JOG (not all at once, but as and when he thought sensible). I followed his advice to the letter, acquiring the majority of the shares in JOG I still own today at prices between 8.79p (the lowest price I paid - in Feb 2016) and about 25p. I have never held more JOG shares than I'm holding today.

Yes, I confess I have recently added HBR to my portfolio. I have an elderly aunt who used to run a post office in Paignton and she occasionally sends me a postal order, which she makes me promise I will invest wisely in stocks and shares. She's drummed it into me that I should always do my best to pay less for the relevant securities than I'm subsequently able to sell them for. This is brilliant advice. I invested some of the funds she sent me most recently in HBR although, so far the price only seems to have headed in one direction. But I'm a patient sort and expect this to change. If not, it won't be a disaster as I don't hold that many shares.
I am also fortunate enough to enjoy a useful royalties stream from the 25 international patents owned by a life sciences (R&D) company I formed with two extremely clever scientists back in the day. Monetising other people's brains and knowledge is a real winner.

Luckly old me, eh? Apart from my health, that is.

How about you, James? What's your story?

Just for info, below is a post I made on the HBR board earlier:

"Extract from comments made by Andrew Austin (KIST exec chairman):

"After a period during which commodity price volatility and fiscal uncertainty has made it difficult to agree deals in the UK and the Netherlands, I am very pleased to be able to announce Kistos' expansion into Norway. Kistos has evaluated several transactions in the UK and Dutch sectors, but the imposition of punitive windfall taxes and a lack of fiscal certainty have meant that both countries remain difficult places to commit capital and ensure continuity of shareholder returns."...........

...........when will our d.ick.head politicians get it??
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KIST/agreement-to-acquire-mime-petroleum-as-c13cei2hsof4xtr.html

Further comment (from me) re today's inflation number. Media outlets today are commenting on the effect the 10.1%, saying it doesn't mean that prices are heading downwards - just that the rate of price increases has slowed down a bit from last month's 10.4%. I beg to differ. The price of UK natural gas on 24 Feb 2022, when hostilities started in Ukraine (said by most to have triggered price increases) was around 200p per therm. Today it is almost exactly half that price. On 24 Feb 2022, Brent Crude was $91pb. Today it is $83pb.

So, the prices companies like HBR (and others I have investments in) have to work with are not "increasing at a slower rate". They have been falling. I'm not sure which other sector can truthfully claim this.

Yet the UK Oil & Gas industry is still the only one chosen to pay what are described by dishonest politicians in both parties as 'windfall tax', when we all know this is a lie, because ALL oil & gas company profits - regardless of whether they are the result of "windfall circumstances" are taxed at the suicidal (for the UK) rate of 75% (78% and backdated is promised by Labour, who also say they'll withdraw investment allowances).

Linda Cook has done a good job imv of making HBR's views (and proposed actions) known to the cretins presently in government. Labour's proposals would finish off the industry as we know it. The UKCS would quickly die. Goodness knows how progress is going to be possible in this hostile climate - one can only hope that sense prevails, as the practical and cost implications of the Neanderthal thinking come home to roost, politicians realise the public aren't with them and that what they've introduced will become a vote loser.

In the meantime, HBR continues to deliver. I intend to keep adding, in the hope politicians come to their senses, generous dividends continue and improved sentiment comes to the rescue of the battered share price. Longer term holders might have to be patient, but at least there's a decent return and the SP is well underpinned.

dyor"

Just for info, below is a post I made on the HBR board earlier:

"Extract from comments made by Andrew Austin (KIST exec chairman):

"After a period during which commodity price volatility and fiscal uncertainty has made it difficult to agree deals in the UK and the Netherlands, I am very pleased to be able to announce Kistos' expansion into Norway. Kistos has evaluated several transactions in the UK and Dutch sectors, but the imposition of punitive windfall taxes and a lack of fiscal certainty have meant that both countries remain difficult places to commit capital and ensure continuity of shareholder returns."...........

...........when will our d.ick.head politicians get it??
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KIST/agreement-to-acquire-mime-petroleum-as-c13cei2hsof4xtr.html

Further comment (from me) re today's inflation number. Media outlets today are commenting on the effect the 10.1%, saying it doesn't mean that prices are heading downwards - just that the rate of price increases has slowed down a bit from last month's 10.4%. I beg to differ. The price of UK natural gas on 24 Feb 2022, when hostilities started in Ukraine (said by most to have triggered price increases) was around 200p per therm. Today it is almost exactly half that price. On 24 Feb 2022, Brent Crude was $91pb. Today it is $83pb.

So, the prices companies like HBR (and others I have investments in) have to work with are not "increasing at a slower rate". They have been falling. I'm not sure which other sector can truthfully claim this.

Yet the UK Oil & Gas industry is still the only one chosen to pay what are described by dishonest politicians in both parties as 'windfall tax', when we all know this is a lie, because ALL oil & gas company profits - regardless of whether they are the result of "windfall circumstances" are taxed at the suicidal (for the UK) rate of 75% (78% and backdated is promised by Labour, who also say they'll withdraw investment allowances).

Linda Cook has done a good job imv of making HBR's views (and proposed actions) known to the cretins presently in government. Labour's proposals would finish off the industry as we know it. The UKCS would quickly die. Goodness knows how progress is going to be possible in this hostile climate - one can only hope that sense prevails, as the practical and cost implications of the Neanderthal thinking come home to roost, politicians realise the public aren't with them and that what they've introduced will become a vote loser.

In the meantime, HBR continues to deliver. I intend to keep adding, in the hope politicians come to their senses, generous dividends continue and improved sentiment comes to the rescue of the battered share price. Longer term holders might have to be patient, but at least there's a decent return and the SP is well underpinned.

dyor"

Extract from comments made by Andrew Austin (KIST exec chairman):

"After a period during which commodity price volatility and fiscal uncertainty has made it difficult to agree deals in the UK and the Netherlands, I am very pleased to be able to announce Kistos' expansion into Norway. Kistos has evaluated several transactions in the UK and Dutch sectors, but the imposition of punitive windfall taxes and a lack of fiscal certainty have meant that both countries remain difficult places to commit capital and ensure continuity of shareholder returns."...........

...........when will our d.ick.head politicians get it??
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KIST/agreement-to-acquire-mime-petroleum-as-c13cei2hsof4xtr.html

Further comment (from me) re today's inflation number. Media outlets today are commenting on the effect the 10.1%, saying it doesn't mean that prices are heading downwards - just that the rate of price increases has slowed down a bit from last month's 10.4%. I beg to differ. The price of UK natural gas on 24 Feb 2022, when hostilities started in Ukraine (said by most to have triggered price increases) was around 200p per therm. Today it is almost exactly half that price. On 24 Feb 2022, Brent Crude was $91pb. Today it is $83pb.

So, the prices companies like HBR (and others I have investments in) have to work with are not "increasing at a slower rate". They have been falling. I'm not sure which other sector can truthfully claim this.

Yet the UK Oil & Gas industry is still the only one chosen to pay what are described by dishonest politicians in both parties as 'windfall tax', when we all know this is a lie, because ALL oil & gas company profits - regardless of whether they are the result of "windfall circumstances" are taxed at the suicidal (for the UK) rate of 75% (78% and backdated is promised by Labour, who also say they'll withdraw investment allowances).

Linda Cook has done a good job imv of making HBR's views (and proposed actions) known to the cretins presently in government. Labour's proposals would finish off the industry as we know it. The UKCS would quickly die. Goodness knows how progress is going to be possible in this hostile climate - one can only hope that sense prevails, as the practical and cost implications of the Neanderthal thinking come home to roost, politicians realise the public aren't with them and that what they've introduced will become a vote loser.

In the meantime, HBR continues to deliver. I intend to keep adding, in the hope politicians come to their senses, generous dividends continue and improved sentiment comes to the rescue of the battered share price. Longer term holders might have to be patient, but at least there's a decent return and the SP is well underpinned.

dyor

The UBS investment is imv far more likely to have been made on behalf of one or the Bank's "wealth clients" than for its own account.

I agree with whoever it was who said earlier that JOG must be at risk of being approached by a NS operator looking for tax offset on UKCS profits set to be taxed at 75%. Value would clearly to be had at £6+ per share, maybe a bit more??

jmofwiw
dyor

Does anyone think Sunakhunt reads stuff like this?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Sorry, can't help, Cyril. I'm showing two "greenies" as well....................

Ran out of space to say JOG will imv get taken out before it gets to first oil. It won't be the don't knows who determine the price - it will be the oil & gas industry via one of its bigger players.

When might this happen?

Work it out

Speak for yourself, Abatt. What is there to be sad about? A bunch of people (known collectively as "the market") who know the square root of naff all about anything worthwhile in the world of investing - and understands even less - deciding to move on in numbers to their next "price play" to see if they can make a few bob to add to the little they have to get by on (because they're dim)?? I'm not dad they're gone - I'm the opposite. "JB the disingenous" is still here though, I see. I have a lot now on filter, but not him - reminds me to be careful of cheats and scoundrels.

Short term price is about volumes bought and sold on a particular day. I call those whose trading is based only on perceived likelihood of short term price escalation (or the reverse), the "don't knows" - short term traders out to make a quick buck. LTHs, on the other hand, tend to have done a lot more research and might be described - as a class - as a bit more cerebral. They don't move on short term news that moves the companies they're invested in in the right direction, but there's a limit to what they can buy.

So the "don't knows" effectively set the short term price, until more LTHs arrive on the scene to benefit from their exits at prices that will be well beaten in the longer term. There are all kinds of traders in the market, which provides liquidity.

Try this for size:
1. JOG retains a fully carried 25% of GBA (inc Verbier & J2, plus the prospective oil in Wengen, Verbier Deep and Cortina - I ascribe no value to these latter 3 in the interests of conservatism)
2. Estimated value per barrel of fully funded oil (2026) when the full farm out is completed, say, $10pb.
3. JOG's (say 40mmboe) oil is worth $400m, or £320m - near as makes no difference to £10 a share.
4. Take the absolute downside of JOG ending up with a fully carried 12.5% - worth £5 a share on the above numbers.

$10pb is a pretty low number for fully funded 33°API in one of the ULCS's best postcodes.

Looking at things a different way, what will JOG's P&L look like when the oil starts to flow, if it retains 25% of the relevant GBA licences?
Taking a conservative approach and working on output in the first few years of 30Kboepd, with a BC price avge of $70:
25% x 30,000 x 335 x {70 - 15} where: 25% is % retained by JOG; 30,000 is the bpd produced; 335 is the days of production each year and {70 minus 15} is the realised Brent Crude price, less JOG's estimated OPEX (there won't be any CAPEX because the 25% will be fully carried).................gets us to a bottom line profit for JOG of about $140m - or about £110m.

Halve the above for an absolute worst case scenario of JOG retaining only a fully carried 12.5% = £55m pa profit.

Don't bother to read the above, people - it's too complicated.

Please don't include me in your sadness. The thing I'm most sad about is that so many of my fellow humans are thick. Many are also insincere.

Yeah - JOG is only worth £78m. My ar5e.

.............so far we've had "$1bn will be half a billion short", now it's a placing. Your game is pretty obvious. The alternative is you're not very clever.

You choose..........

...........pathetic - no sense and even less integrity..........yes - you knobby

Those were the bits I was missing, Einbert.

No wonder you won the Nobel Prize for reading

Nobby - given Buchan has always been planned as a hub, would there not be scope to share the cost of elctricity from shore (to the hub) with other potential users in neighbouring fields? In these energy saving days it would ill-behove the NSTA to allow one oil junior alone to bear the costs of electrification from shore alone, when it's probably known neighbouring fields owned by much larger enterprises will in due course be submitting applications of various kinds, perhaps incorporating 'old fashioned' power solutions.

A straightforward message might be transmitted (it might already have been for all we know) by the NSTA to said larger enterprises that they won't be getting anything approved when there's a carbon efficient opportunity to share the cost of electricity from shore with a junior that already has plans in place, so that the word "hub" has a real meaning to it.

Just musing. There's probably something I'm missing - a bit like Sunakhunt

dyor

It would surprise me if JOG wasn't in talks with the second FO partner. It's anyone's guess what might be taking the time to FO another 25% - start with the disingenous Conservative cretins and work from there.

As to what JOG might be worth (as seen by someone reasonably competent in the industry; eg Neo Energy) why not work out how much they think it's worth spending to get 50% of the action? Let's start with 62.5% of development spend of up to $1bn and add the various cash milestone payments, shall we? And this amounts to £87m - is that right? In case it's too difficult for some to work out, £87m is the value the market attributes to the 50% JOG (by inference) now owns of the assets it owned 100% of before the RNS told us otherwise.

In a nutshell, JOG swapped 50% of the relevant licences for milestone payments of up to $46.4m AND an estimated $625m of development spend by Neo to get to first oil. Thereafter (ie moving to production) it's all about cash generation, sadly most of it destined to be given to life's failures so that Sunakhunt (soon to be Stomerc**t) are more likely to be voted into office, so that they can continue the job of destroying this once great country.

Which is where the problem lies (that's a fitting word to use in the circumstances). What value can be ascribed to a company whose profits are taxed at heinous tax rates. Where the government of the day taxes the good years but makes no allowance for the bad ones. It's no good saying the tax can be sidestepped either, because the simple fact is that if companies are daft enough to invest in the UKCS, they can only avoid the tax on one lot of capex. The profits the investments lead to, however, will be taxed at heinous rates until the relevant fields are no longer economically viable. Now that they've tasted blood, there'll be no stemming either party's insatiable greed. Companies can't keep on investing their profits in the UKCS forever. There are those greedy, disgusting people like shareholders (spit at this point) to pay dividends to - and there are also places other than the UKCS, whose leaders aren't hell-bent on destroying their countries, to invest in instead.

For reasons I can't be bothered to explain here or now, JOG is stilll worth a lot more that 275p a share, however negatively one chooses to look at the situation (including being left with only 12.5%, which is extremely unlikely imv). It's hard to get to a value of less than about £4 a share. Much depends on how you value a barrel of fully funded 33°API oil 2 or 3 years away from production. If Sunakhunt hadn't struck when it did, it would be simplicity itself. $12pb anyone? Comments welcome.

I haven't sold any shares and don't intend to for the foreseeable. I'm just saying. The price is silly, but silliness will prevail until the politicians realise what they're doing and stop it.

As intimated earlier, JOG is a lot stronger today than it was last week.

imo/dyor

Very well put, Dumbley. Virtually all that is wrong with the UK is down to politicians. With very few exceptions, they are the lowest of the low

"Price is what you pay; value is what you get". Or so says the Sage of Omaha, which is good enough for me.

From my perspective (as a reasonably clued-up LTH) this is a good deal, particularly given the destructive effects of Sunak & Hunt and the general malaise endemic in the industry.

Two main reasons:
1. My investment is materially de-risked;
2. JOG's 170mmboe of GBA 2C resources have been validated by an industry heavyweight.

Interestingly I couldn't find any reference to concept; perhaps that's for another day and we'll be surprised on the upside, given Zeus is working in development costs to first oil of $1bn.

Although there's no immediate evidence to support it, my considered view is that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw

No-one's getting any of my shares on the cheap............

dyor