Member Info for dickupham

J Bibby - thanks for letting us know you've acted like a headless chicken

"I think the deafening silence of esteemed posters such as Dick and our resident village idiot JamesSimon on this much heralded day answers your question. Does it not?".................

...........my silence has nothing to do with this morning's announcement, JohnBriggs. as a matter of fact I was in bed at 7am, as I haven't been feeling that well of late - all connected with my continuing fight against an agrressive form of PC. My investments (and money generally) aren't uppermost in my thinking these days, although I do, when I feel well enough, enjoy engaging with the many decent types who post on these boards, with a view to passing on my views and opinions (that's all they are) about investments I hold. By far my favourite share is JOG. I don't count you among the decent types I refer to. I find you to be an unpleasant individual with a chip on his shoulder, whose contributions are worthless. None of your posts teach anyone anything that isn't obvious.

As far as I'm concernedJOG is a lot stronger than it was yesterday. That a lot of short term investors have been selling only affects supply and demand (and thus the short term SP). You're quick to jump onto the bandwagon laid on by MMs to a host of people who are brainless enough to follow the illogical adage "sell on the news". They trade only the price, not what it buys you. The fact is that JOG's much more fully funded oil resources are still valued at less than 50 cents a barrel, which is insane. Let's see what happens over the next few days. The cash payments alone being made to JOG add a lot to the Company's asset value, given the market values the oil at virtually nothing.

Temporarily the lunatics have taken over the asylum. It won't last forever.

Why not move on to another board to enhance your reputation as one of life's losers. Trying as hard as you can to spoil other people's days is not a trait to be proud of. If I knew as little as you, I think I'd be inclined to hide in a corner, lest someone should ask me a question that demands an intelligent answer.

In summary: "offski in Polski".

dyor

I've been in forever. Half a crown, Einbert?? You missed 8.79p............
:-))

......no offence was intended, NS............

Held 450k of these at one time, but saw increasing greed of directors as a warning sign and I really didn't like the TW deal - badly explained, poorly constructed and ill-thought through. Left me feeling "something ain't right somewhere" - I've never liked the idea of swimming with sharks. I'm down to 65k shares now - hardly worth bothering about in my book. I've switched most of my holding over to JOG when there have been buying opportunities. Risky I know, but we only come this way once...........

No wonder Circle went bust.............

Clueless PR

imo/dyor

.....gawd........fat fingers again......................."non-compliants"

.........that was for Parge btw

Look towards the top of the page. Just above the blue band that says: "post message". Click on "Filters"..............

.......it's quite straightforward (and worthwhile)................

deliberately OR otherwise

Back of a *** packet calc: 130mmboe 2P reserves - 381m shares outstanding. Assume a 2P barrel is worth $15 (it's just a stab in the dark).

Gets you to $5.2 per share, or c.£4

Norma - you don't seem to get it. The concern of many shareholders is that the SP will be suppressed either deliberately otherwise, whilst Mercuria is sitting on >30% of the shares in issue for the duration of the 'lock in' period of 18 months, whilst it decides if it wants to take out other shareholders in a bid that values the company at a lot less than it would be valued if it didn't have this hanging over its head. Mercuria could block rival bids, leaving holders to either accept what M has to offer, or end up as a tiny minority in a company with no listing, thereby trapping "non-complaints" forever.

OK - it won't happen.

Wish I shared your confidence.

dyor

Paitech - have you considered reviewing the history of posts made on this blog, picking out the information you need from posts made by a few longer term holders it should quickly become clear to you have done a lot of research before committing significant amounts of money to buying shares. Furthermore, such posters continue to keep up with events as time progresses, with a view to keeping abreast of the risks and potential rewards their investments offer.

Seems a bit odd to me that anyone would buy "a substantial amount of shares" with important questions about likely forward progress unanswered, but we're all different I suppose.

Hope, like the rest of us, that your investment proves successful

dyor

Crikey Abbat - have you been on the pop again?

Didn't realise I was regarded as a supernatural horror, but I suppose it's a fair enough way to describe me.

No chicken counting here, please. A profit isn't profit until it's in the bank...........

Good to see you're still around, Jim. Had a similar experience to you on Friday and drew the same conclusions. I'm managing to keep the reaper at bay pro temps, but the secondary effects of the medicine aren't that easy to cope with. I'm not looking for sympathy btw - we all have crosses to bear. Good luck to you and yours - the quiet confidence you exude in your occasional encouraging messages always improves the mood.

Hope all LTHs here make a killing, along with JOG's two main men (AB & RL), who've spared no effort at any time and have done a cracking job in getting JOG to where it is today. Immediately after the CI JOG they'd formed (about a year earlier) reversed into TRAP (which was re-named JOG) in about Aug 2015, JOG had a market cap of about £1.8m. This subsequently fell to about £640,000 by Feb 2016, when the oil price bottomed at about $27pb. JOG had about 8.4m shares in issue at the time. Not that many people backed up the truck, probably because confidence was low. Quelle dommage!

How things have advanced since then, despite a number of setbacks along the way, all patiently and skilfully dealt with by JOG's highly competent people.

JOG is not there yet, but all the signs are positive, with the single exception of the spineless (supposedly) conservative government, led by people with no backbone, who are foolish enough to think that gaining the approval of hordes of people who'll never vote for them regardless of whatever they say or do, by departing from sound economic principles that put capitalism ahead of socialism that's bordering on communism,will result in their re-election next year. Take a bow, messrs Sunak and Hunt (inter alia).

GLAL
DYOR

Thanks SUYA - on refleaction, more likely to be one of the types you describe than what I was getting excited about.

Didn't intend to mislead - perhaps best not to rule anything out but keep one's feet on the planet

dyor

"Institutions buying JOG, who would have thought!"..............

....doubt it's UBS buying for itself (ie funds managed by UBS), Robsroom.

Stake building ahead of a bid by one of its clients??? Who knows? Certainly not me.............

dyor

PC01 - I agree with your interpretation of why the end of Q1 deadline wasn't met. Otherwise, why wait until the very last minute before telling us it wasn't going to happen within the intended timescale? Had there been some serious obstacle to overcome, JOG would have known this earlier and been obliged to notify the market. That's how I read it anyway. They must have thought they could get there but perhaps there was just too much to do?

People probably underestimate the size and complexity of the situation JOG has had to deal with. So many moving parts and so many potential ways forward. Interest expressed by many different counter-parties, all with different circumstances attaching and no doubt different preferences as to the best way forward. Many different possible scenarios to consider, all requiring modeling and evaluation. And all this before getting down to the real nitty gritty of narrowing down the field and sitting down with the various organisations that made the cut and working out who's was going to get what, when and for how much. Finally, the choice of partner/s to move into final stage negotiations with. An absolute nightmare - and all to be resolved within a finite timescale by a small cap with limited resources, particularly people with the right level of experience.

Sunak and Hunt wimping out last Thursday, when it became clear Milliband and Reeves were shadowing them, lest they should propose a much overdue redefinition of the term "windfall", can't have helped - but I don't think it will have been a game changer because both political parties' stance on reinvestment relief (which is what a farm out partner will be really interested in) were well defined and not up for change in what was going to be a positive presentation given by Hunt or Sunak in Aberdeen (who would have snatched it if he thought it would make him popular) but turned into a limp-wristed farce in a 'Winston Churchill look-alike' war room wherever, presided over by Grant Schapps (someone less Churchillian would be very hard to envisage). Spineless morons the lot, devoid of both courage and principles. Anyway, the point of the rant is to back up my doubts that politics played a significant part in failing to get a deal across the line by the end of March. They tried their darndest, but............

This begs the question: when can we expect news of success? My take is H1 of April rather than H2 (although Easter offers the potential for slippage into H2). Interest should remain strong - who's going to throw in the towel given Friday's RNS? The increased SP resulting should provide be a decent platform from which to launch the rocket.

Strap yourselves in folks (you should fasten your seat belt on the bus, JS - wouldn't want you suffering a whiplash).......

Good times ahead, I reckon but, as ever, dyor. Risk can never be eliminated. Risk in this case imv includes injury caused by excessive levels of G force

GLAL

I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "tightly held" in the context of JOG, JBriggs.

You appear to be tightly held by misery and resentment, but wdik? Does anything make you smile?

Talking of blithering idiots, where's sonofthebull this morning?

:-)

The dude Andy has sent me a message to convey to you, James. It says FO.

I think it means there's a farm out coming.................

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmBxVfQTuvI

............de bons moments nous attendent

Key points for me: market might ask: "what's new? You still havent got the FO you told us you would either Q4 '22 or Q1 '23. Why should we believe you this time? You said more or less the same thing last November". JOG missed the opportunity to expalin the sheer complexity of the deal, with so many different concepts to be considered in choosing the eventual JV partner. No apology there either, for misleading us (inadvertently or not) by more then implying a deal was imminent 4 months ago. Finally, why on earth not remind the world this will be the first ever practically carbon neutral development in the UKCS (assuming they haven't abandoned their zero carbon ambitions in favour of whatever's now proposed). What was there to lose by shouting it from the hill tops?

All that said, the news a deal should be secured by the end of April is a relief. The cowardly conservatives (scared stiff of the hapless Milliband who was shadowing them, with Rachel Reeves salivating as she fantasized about destroying the UKCS) let themselves and our coutry down again by failing even mention how they intend to stimulate investment by only taxing the windfall element of corporate profits, not the whole shooting match, at the grossly exceesive rate of 75%.

Hope the market takes today's news rationally. Really feel for the LTHs who bailed recently after being patient for so long. I retain my belief this will resolve satisfactorily in the end. The whole thing should have been dealt with more skillfully, difficult though the background conditions have been throughout

Go away would you, JB? See a doctor - I think you're sick

dyor

.............if the cap fits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THjBJk8R2MY

........we're all rooting for you, MPO :-)

You'll probably be under pressure to sell as soon as there's a significant uptick in the SP. This might not be the smart thing to do. My view is that the right time for JOG to sell might be on FDP approval in perhaps 12 months time. When a FO is announced (hopefully imminently) the market will determine the price. As I understand the situation, on FDP approval the 2C resources will become 2P reserves - and the industry will value these should JOG decide it's time to sell. I am far from certain the above is wholly correct, because I've recently heard the word "validation" used in the context of value of JOG's oil - and I'm not certain of the timing of the changes in description of the oil.

One definition I've read states: "Contingent Resources—Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be
commercially recoverable"
"Reserves—Those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from
known accumulations from a given date forward".

Can anyone throw further light on the subject? The difference in value between 2C and 2P appears to be very significant.

dyor