Member Info for dickupham

..............rumour has it this lady's a late entrant to the leadership contest you speak of FJ:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asgfeRXdjxc

no contest.......

sorry - forgot the link:

https://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

Stunning response to my pitiful whinge, Frazerjohn ................the Westminster lot are probably only going to halve the value of our investments in oil & gas. The Holyrood lot are costing you your country.

Fwiw, we lost ours in the years from 1997 to 2010. The lot that followed all turned out to be political pygmies - in it for themselves. It's quite logical when you come to thing of it; which intelligent and balanced individual would ever want to become a member of parliament - particularly in an era when the party that gets in is the one that offers the most to the proles.............and the UK is as bust as a rat. Insurmountable debt that can never be reapid.

What's linked is only the National Debt. Add the "off balance sheet" unfunded public sector RPI linked pensions, OAPs and onerous leases lasting the life of all the schools and hospitals Gordon Brown (one of Scotland's cannier politicians) claimed credit for, when the organisations building them under the PFI laughed their socks off as they banked gazillions courtesy of the taxpayer - and (depending on the actuarial assumptions used) you get to somewhere between £6 and 8 trillion (yes, trillions of pounds).

A lasting legacy to our children, their children and their children's children (repeat about 50 times.

In other words, it wil all end up in tears. It already is doing

A small win on JOG wouldn't go amiss for us all as individuals - might take our minds off things for a while......

GLA
dyor

Interesting read, Frazerjohn - thanks for linking the article.

The author forgot Axion X111:
On travel : Never buy a first class bus ticket to an unknown destination in advance, because you might not have enough to do what you want when you get there, or return to the place you started your journey".

The way politicians are talking about windfall tax (which in the case of E&Ps in the O&G sector isn't WFT at all - it is a straightforward increase in tax payable to 75% on profits arising in the NS - you'd think it was going to pay for everything that's broken in the UK today. It isn't a giant leap to imagine these cretins in (so called) "government" - they couldn't govern a tea party, never mind a nation - having a go at taxing the worldwide profits of all UK registered O&G companies, irrespective of : (i) the price of oil & gas vs what it was before the Russian invasion and (ii) where the profits are generated. Labour is planning to do the equivalent with "non-doms", so why not companies? The prospect of UK registered O&G companies voting with their feet and forever abandoning the UK in their droves, would be of much less concern to them than the thought of some cheap votes from the brain-dead masses who spend their lives with their mouths open waiting to be fed, together with some useful short term cash they can use to make themselves slightly less unpopular. It might be just too tempting to resist.

"With utter contempt" goes nowhere near describing how I view them. Rats are preferable and (to the extent they might have any) probably act with more morals.

Hunt has said he's not minded to increase the EPL in the forthcoming Budget. I wouldn't put it past him to give way to pressure from the left and put conditions on the reinvestment relief that, from a practical perspective,make it worthless.

Sorry to sound so downbeat. I'm still fully invested but grow less content by the day. I hate wishing time away. December, January and February (very nearly) have come and gone since JAB's 29 November comments in the licence extension RNS. Someone earlier mentioned caveats. The relevant one came at the end of the 29 Nov RNS:
"This announcement contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to the usual risk factors and uncertainties associated with the oil and gas business. Whilst the Company believes the expectations reflected herein to be reasonable in light of the information available to it at this time, the actual outcome may be materially different owing to factors beyond the Company's control or otherwise within the Company's control but where, for example, the Company decides on a change of plan or strategy".

dyor

From the 9 Jan circular & update:
"Results from GE-04 well (Tailwind 100%) considerably better than pre-drill estimates with expected initial production rates in excess of 8,000 boe/d compared with 5,000 boe/d predrill estimate. Production tie-in planned in Q1 2023"...........

today's announcement:
"The well results were above the pre-drill expectation and initial production rates have exceeded 10,000 barrels of oil per day"..............

Positive news

dyor

29 November 2022:

..........."Although multiple fiscal changes have slowed progress with closing out commercial farm-out discussions, we look forward to a successful conclusion if not by the end of the year then certainly in Q1 2023."..........

"Have a god weekend"..................

...............it comes to something when we're asked to spend our leisure days praying...............

Not a bad idea though. What is there to lose?

The Company's most recent guidance was, I believe, that there's enough cash to see it through to the end of this year.

Ref who it's best to filter, Cyril, I'd suggest you put me on the list. I've been consistently wrong on the timing of the much talked-of farm out for the last 2 years at least, so have inadvertently misled anyone who's been daft enough to take any notice of my views and opinions.

History is often a guide to what's likely to happen in the future. I was confident that Xcite Energy's oil 266mmboe of mostly 1P in the NS, albeit on the heavy side, would attract a farm in partner back in 2015/16. I made the naive assumption that directors (CEOs in particular) tell the truth and that outright trickery and ultimate dishonesty involving some quite big City names was unlikely to feature in a company I'd put a great deal of research into. Cost me a packet to learn what I thought then was a valuable lesson. But despite all the work I've put into understanding everything I can about an investment that's significant to me, yet again I find it all comes down to whether a CEO has been telling it as it is and - if he has - will it produce the right value?

I'm not saying it won't all work out well in the end. Just that what appeared to be a strong likelihood of success has ended up becoming 'binary', fitting in perfectly with the investment strategy I seem to have been most closely aligned with since whenever (s.hit or bust).

The difficultiesthat have will have arisen here couldn't realistically have been predicted. Who would ever have thought a Conservative Govt would introduce punitive taxes on an industry the nation needs to be at its strongest in these troubled times? Insincere vote-seeking combined with utter stupidity in equal measure. And as for the opposition, which intends to increase the pain by upping the tax rate 3% and withdrawing the reinvestment relief, which sane CEO of any credible oil & gas co would ever look to invest in the NS again?

Did anyone see Kinnock jnr (shadow immigration?) on QT last night? He dismissed the audience question: "won't windfall taxes on energy companies frighten off future investment" he gave the brainless answer: "not at all, because these companies know they have only made profits that have arisen because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine".

That's ok then - silly me. I was looking at what happened last time when Brown put the rate up to 60% back in the day. Steadily decreasing tax revenue immediately followed, culminating in 'nil' taxation returns in two full tax years (2014/15?) and virtually 'nil' in the next. It took Osborne's reduction to 40% to trigger a period of slow of recovery.

Ref your 'filter' recommendations, Cyril. My blog adviser (who's in the know on this sort of thing) tells me the real names of two of the three you mention are 'Stan' and 'Oliver'. The other's called 'Warren". That's the comparison imv.

Back to the medicinal recliner now.........have a good day a

Good new, JS. You only need to buy 38,629 more and you'll have 3%. If I were you I'd round your puchase up to 40,000 to keep things neat.

JS won't be able to meet me, Abatt. I don't exist in the material world - only in the ether.

No news again today. Mind you, it is half term. I reckon they're saving it for my birthday next week.

In regard to significant holdings, a listed company's only obligation is to advise the market of any notifications it receives from the relevant holders crossing the relevant thresholds.

Ref your comment: "How do we know Mr RL hasn’t bottled it and sold out ?"....................
...........how do we know you're not Walter Mitty and have never owned any shares at all.

And reference an earlier comment: "dick was in on the ground floor with trap"......................
...............no I wasn't. I was in at basement level for reasons I don't feel like sharing.

No point in turning girlie at this stage JS. Be mindful instead of the words of the Sage of Omaha, Mr WB:
"be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

Go on............you know you want to. You might already be too late..........who knows?

Something will drop on our doormat soon. We just have to hope it's the news we're waiting for and not further disappointment. I'm pretty sure a first rate deal would have been done by now were it not for the Sunakhunt intervention.

Chill, JS - what will be will be. Whenever you get all het up, sit back, relax and listen to this. You should soon calm down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIQ2D6AIys8

..........followed by this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UVjjcOUJLE

There's more to life than money, although I do concede it's important to have enough. A contact/friend (based in Oregon) who's done extremely well in business and has a few noughts after his name was challenged on one of the blogs he posts on to define "enough". His answer?? More.

dyor
wbln

I've held shares in JOG since the outset in August 2015, PJT12. History is sometimes relevant. I'm not saying that what I write below is right and that you're wrong in your assessment of why there is a continuing delay in telling us a farm out (or outright sale - some hope) has been agreed. I don't see why all the legal and other niceties need be completed before announcing a binding deal, subject only to regulatory and other approvals

Back in 2016, JOG managed to farm out a stake in Licence P2170 to Statoil (now called Equinor). I think it was the first NS farm out for about 3 years, following a steady withdrawal by the Industry from the UK as a result of the excessively high tax rate (60%) imposed on it by the Marxist GKB (Gordon Knows Best - his modern equivalents are RKB and JKB - Rishi Knows Best and Jeremy Know Best. Short term gain, long term pain - do politicians never learn from history?

JOG's farm out was evidence of the tide atarting to turn about 2 years after Osborne finally cottoned on and reduced the tax rate to 40%. But by then tens of thousands of skilled workers had forever left the Industry and exploration was dead.
The OGA (motto: MER - maximise economic recovery) had been formed to restore a flow of tax revenue to the Treasury after drying up completely for nearly 3 years. That's what happens when punitive tax rates are imposed on an industry that relies on the good years to offset the bad ones, the risks are huge and the amounts at stake are such that the rewards have to be there to make the former worthwhile . Where were Sunak's and Hunt's equivalents in 2019, insisting on windfall tax credits when for reasons outside anyone's control (Covid19) Brent Crude dropped into the $20 - 30 pb range. As it also did in early 2016 after a steady drift down for 3 years from $100+pb? Somehow that doesn't count.

Anyway, my point in responding to your last post is to record the fact that JOG's farm out to Statoil (Equinor) in 2016 was announced in two stages. Strangely, the first RNS (advising a deal had been done and was legally binding, but was contingent on regulatory and other approvals) hardly moved JOG's SP from the c.35p it was trading at when the RNS was issued. When the second RNS was issued about 6 weeks later (stating that regulatory and other approvals had now been received) the price more than doubled on the day.

Why would things be any different today?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/farm-out-of-uk-seaward-licence-p.2170-to-statoil/201608230700068382H/

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/completion-of-farm-out-to-statoil/201610061507329215L/

dyor

Zeus announced the acquistion of Arden Partners on 16 January. Who cares? Crass timing of the announcement.

100 lines: "I will try harder".

Of what gifts do you speak, EA - Greek-borne or other?

...........don't forget there's a budget coming on 15 March. Hunt & Sunak are not to be trusted - as they have shown in spades and have form at moving the goalposts to gain added popularity.

Given the size of this deal and the time it's expected to span, if I was the party lined up to provide the lion's share of the funding needed to make it all happen, for the sakes of a few weeks more I'd wait to see what Hunt's latest skewed thinking was on the best way to destroy the NS and leave Britain horribly exposed for its energy needs. The fact the tax relief is crucial to it being worthwhile is the driver. There's little doubt in my mind a deal would have been done by now were it not for disingenuous politicians who know the square root of Jack s.hite about how the industry works - how anything works in fact - and understand even less. It's all about popularity and votes for these lowlifes.

dyor

PS - re JOG. A farm out would have been done and dusted by now had it not been for Sunakhunt.

What I didn't see in the Tailwind acquisition is where the relief at 75% plus the additional concessions for new investment is going to come from and when, when the two come together as one. JOG's farmout is about securing enough working captal to last until first oil 3 or 4 years down the line, but overwhelmingly getting a carry on the significant infrastructure spend before it starts flowing (at a projected 35kboepd). It would have to move efficiently to FDP, then FID, but this should be achievable before Labour gets in and spoils everything. Payment in advance for infrastucture would allow that spend to be made at an effective cost of about 9p in the £.

All just conjecture...........

dyor

Always good to read your posts, Mommur. Whilst my holding in SQZ has never been as large as yours, I did own 450k shares at one time at an average of about 22p. I decided somwhere along the road up (following the BKR deal) however that, for once in my life I should exercise caution so, despite always believing I was selling a share that was fundamentally undervalued I reduced by 2/3rds from about 250p to 440p, putting some of the money into bricks and mortar and what remained into JOG, which is a risky proposition but I understand well. I wasn't expecting to be scuppered by a (so-called) Conservative Govt looking for cheap votes - which is what I will be if a farmout isn't announced by the end of Q1. I have an unwisely large holding but faint heart never won fair lady (so to speak - fair lady would definitely not be interested me following my PC diagnosis as nothing about me, least of all below the waist, works any more. My brain (such as it is) appears unaffected at present thankfully, but I'm not counting any chickens!

I sold a further 50k shares in SQZ recently, when I received a reply from ACW to an email I'd sent him which didn't go anywhere assuaging my concerns about ceding control - with the distinct possiblility of being taken over for a pittance 18 months down the road - to Mercuria, when it would have been a simple matter to include a well-used protective clause in the SPA.

The point of my post is that I've never ruled out SQZ as a potential farminee to JOG's GBA licences. JOG has 170mmboe of 2C resources that are a bit better than the usual 2C. There were 50mmboe of 2P in a CPR when Repsol Sinopec owned the Buchan licences. The rig then failed on H&S grounds, when Buchan was still producing 5kboepd. For whatever reason the two (Repsol & Sinopec) couldn't agree on the best way forward, so the licences were surrendered. The OGA awarded them to JOG. The rest is probably well known to those who follow what's happening in the NS.

Fast (?) forward 4 years and a lot of work later (32,000 hours spent studying the data and modelling the concepts by in-house people and external consultants, using 36 years of production history as a backdrop and then applying modern methodology) with technical due diligence having been completed by all potential farminees by the end of October, we're presently awaiting news of a (hopefully) successful farmout at any time.

Holders here are awaiting a post year-end "state of the nation" at any time.

Probably just a coincidence.

all imo/dyor

"Wait until that locked box bursts open."................

............what are you suggesting is going to burst out, NS? Detail would help us ordinary mortals understand.

"Can any further action be taken to scupper the proposed deal?"..............

...............threaten to make them spend an hour shut in a room with Greta Thunberg?
...............followed by 2 hours answering questions from NKOTB, Banburyboy & infor???

And after that?
The pièce de résistance:
...............back to Room 1, but this time Greta's got her kit off...............

Should work.

............you've been taking to your cousin who works on the forecourts, haven't you Einbert...........sounds like a clever chap to me. Can't say I can find anything to disagree with in your post................

dyor

Good effort re the reason for the increase, RR.

The weaker pound against the US dollar accounts for some of the increase. The price of diesel at the pumps a year ago was about 157p per litre. It had steadily increased to that level from May 2020, when it was 112ppl. It peaked at 199ppl in Aug 2022 and is presently about 170ppl where I am (Ulan Bator).

Not sure about the rest. You say the "asset owners" have done the best out of the high fuel prices over the past year. What assets are you talking about - I'm a bit puzzled?

Your thinking is one-dimensional. You fit well with the masses who can't think things through.

The Treasury has done the best out of increased fuel prices. HMRC charges 52.95p per litre of fuel duty and 20% VAT on the aggregate of the cost of the actual fuel, plus the fuel duty. So, at a pump price of 170ppl, "oil" only accounts for 88p of the cost and tax accounts for the rest (82p - or 48%).

Remarkably generous of Sunakhunt when you compare it with the 75% tax it charges upstream.

Someone else will probably be in office when the last barrel is lifted out of the NS in a few years time. He'll be the one begging the EU to let us have some of what it's been allocated by the Arabs, with the LNG being sourced from what the US decides to put up for auction.

Happy days.

Don't forget to let me know who the asset owners are and what assets you're talking about

Hey Robsroom - any chance of you letting us have your thoughts on why the price of petrol & diesel on the forecourts is still so much higher today than it was last Feb 24th. Heating oil too.

Also, if you've got time, who's done well out of the increases

Thanks in advance