Member Info for dickupham

.............or Friday at the latest. JOG would surely have 'fessed up by now if no deal was impending.............

jmofwiw
dyor
see you on the other side (of £5?)

..........."JOG's farm out is about providing the means for profitable UKCS producers to avoid the payment of 75% tax on profits (40% 'normal' and 35% EPL)"

Plus of course there's the cash contribution of close to 15% on qualifying development spend (available to the company doing the spending.

You're definitely right about the stars lining up, Varnish (planets actually, but who's counting?):
https://www.nationalworld.com/news/science/5-planet-alignment-planets-aligned-sky-tonight-4081743

One small health warning.................. if you're watching without protective gear: Mercury in Uranus can be very uncomfortable.

I'm with you on tomorrow, Varnish. Energy Security proceedings in Aberdeen tomorrow are expected mostly to be about the establishment of a floor price for oil, below which the 35% EPL would not apply. I seem to recall reading something about carbon capture also being on the agenda, which sounds like the sort of subject that will result in a huge volume of hot air from people who haven't got a clue (causing more blobal warming than they'll stop).

JOG's farm out is about providing the means for profitable UKCS producers to avoid the payment of 75% (40% 'normal' and 35% EPL). I don't think anyone envisages Sunakhunt reducing the "super-investment allowance", as the seminar is about energy security, which I take to mean security of supply, or in other words: encouragement of oil & gas cos to invest in the UKCS. Any reduction in the present allowances would clearly have the opposite effect.

Not long now to wait for JohnnyB's apology for putting people off investing in a company he hasn't got the balls to invest in himself

dyor

...........might there be more than one farminee?
Could JOG also be announcing the acquisition of a producing interest to provide cash flow?
Am I being over-optimistic? :-))

Whoever is interested in farming in to the GBA fields will be after the "super-investment relief" as a means of avoiding tax at 75%. As I interpret Sunakhunt's climb down, it's about the introduction of an oil/gas price 'floor', below which the 35% EPL charge will not apply. If I'm interpreting the situation correctly, there are no proposals to meddle with the investment relief.
News could therefore drop on any day this week - can't really see why there would be a delay once the terms have been agreed.

We know news must be close because JohnnyB is getting increasingly desperate. JOG appears to be interfering with his weekends and is definitiely keeping him awake, looking at the times of his recent posts. I have no doubt he'll be the first to congratulate well-researched and patient investors for their good fortune when the loaded catapult is unleashed....

jmofwiw
dyor

As I have explained many times before, the £43 quoted is simply the price JOG's shares would need to reach in order to return to the original subscribers to Trap Oil's (TRAP) IPO, the money they invested at the outset. TRAP listed in 2011 at a price of 43p per share. There was a 1 for 100 consolidation in 2015, which is where the £43 came from. TRAP and JOG are one and the same. JOG's reversal into TRAP was presented as an acquistion by TRAP, in order to preserve TRAP's listing and its tax losses. TRAP was renamed JOG, which then changed its name to Jersey Oil & Gas E & P Ltd (it is shown as a subsidiary in JOG's annual accounts).

Hope this clarifies the situation.

If you're looking to place a value on JOG's shares you could choose a few ways of doing so. EinbertAlstein, who appears to have been brought up on a diet of Mathematics in Geology ( I majored on 'The Beano') comes up with some intriguing numbers, which I have no dispute with. I developed a basic understanding of accounting when I grew up, so could add one or two other ways one might arrive at something approximating to value of businesses generally, but it's a complex subject when applied to valuing assets (in this case JOG) that's fundamentally affected by intengibles like sector sentiment, unknowns like future oil prices and unexplainables like Sunak and the rhyming Hunt.

But I'll have a go anyway. I'll use net earnings as my benchmark, using numbers that have been talked of and discounting them somewhat. So, what might JOG's P&L look like in its first full year of production?
Is: 0.33 x 30,000 x 350 x [65-15] workable anyone?
Where 0.33 is the percentage of the GBA licences retained; 30,000 is the future barrels produced daily; 350 is the future number of days production (to allow for about 2 weeks maintenance and downtime); $65 in the average Brent Crude price applying throughout and $15 is JOG's (predominantly) OPEX cost of lifting the oil (the terms of the farmout are likely to include a significant carry for JOG's share of development spend - why else part with 67% of the action?).

0.33 x 30,000 x 350 x [65-15] = $173.25m. Thus, using the numbers I have, JOG's profit before tax (relating to the farmed out licences) would be $173m pa. Make whatever assumptions about tax you like - maybe halve that number (to $85m) and it still converts to £68m pa of profit after tax.

Discount it foward by whatever you like, or apply a P/E you think is appropriate and you'll never get to a value of less than £200m.

Try a reasonableness test. 33% of 160m barrels (to allow for shrinkage on due diligence) = 53m barrels. £200m divided by 53m = about £4 - say $5 a barrel.
Consider the discounts I've used.
I was not known (in the saloons frequented by bookkeepers I could be found in) as: "Mickey Merlin the t.wat", for nothing.

Really wouldnt want to be short of JOG - this weekend above all. Hope things work out as planned for all LTH, but there are no certainties in O&G.

dyo

As I see no point in prolonging communications that are of no worth to JOG holders, I have reluctantly applied the filter to your posts. It is rare for me to do this.

"aggressive doubt" eh?............a new one on me, but I quite like it, so maybe I have learned something from you after all.

.........you use a broker (?) and he said what you claim he did? Really? I don't think he was telling you anything particularly complicated. It was reasonable to assume the intended placing price was 210p - this was the exercise price of the options awarded to JOG personnel after the placing was completed. It had been acknowledged a week or so earlier there'd been a leak. But I very much doubt it was the result of JOG failing to get potential institutional investors to sign NDAs that led to it (or them). Others are always involved in an event like a placing. Plain dishonesty on the part of someone who'd been made an insider was most likely the cause of the leak, which undoubtedly cost shareholders dear as a result of unnecessary dilution.

Your unsubstatiated allegations of incompetence on the part of the CEO (against whom you appear to have a grudge) do you little credit and imv there is no place for such allegations on an open forum such as this. For all anyone knows, JOG's CEO might have been working unceasingly for months to deliver a result that everything pointed towards being capable of achievent within days or weeks of 29 November. Who knows what events transpired after the RNS was issued? Of more relevance, however, is the fact that we haven't reached the end of Q1 yet, so there's still time to deliver what was (as good as) promised. The implications for the CEO of there not being a positive announcement by next Friday don't need to be explained.

Just as you prefer to trust your leaky broker to anyone posting on a blog like this, so most people probably prefer the opinions of three reputable analysts from different brokers who cover JOG, plus the considered views of Simon Thompson of IC, who has a big following for well-documented reasons. All four confidently expect JOG to complete a Farm Out in the near term and have target prices set in the range £6 to £8 in the event it does.

Reference dumping shares in the market, have you considered the possibility the now departed COO has retained his holding because he believes it will produce impressive returns for him in the future?

Fwiw, I sold out ages ago and am now with the Woolwich...............
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=we%27re+with+the+woolwich+advert&rlz=1C2CHBF_en-GBGB985GB1009&newwindow=1&sxsrf=AJOqlzU0GIoV3rGNREIGSmIobe4A2jlFHQ%3A1679589279745&source=hp&ei=n38cZIqmK-HE8gKCzoCYDA&iflsig=AK50M_UAAAAAZByNr7roR8djHGZgyAI6YGI3z9I3giAl&oq=we%27re+with+the+woolwich&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYADIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIYDMgUIABCGAzoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6CwguEIAEELEDEIMBOhEILhCABBCxAxCDARDHARDRAzoLCC4QgAQQxwEQ0QM6DgguEIAEELEDEMcBENEDOgsILhDUAhCxAxCABDoLCC4QgAQQsQMQ1AI6CAguEIAEELEDOggILhCABBDUAjoICAAQgAQQsQM6DgguEIAEELEDEIMBENQCOggIABCxAxCDAToICC4QsQMQgAQ6BQguEIAEOgsILhCvARDHARCABDoLCC4QgAQQxwEQrwE6BwgAEIAEEAo6BggAEBYQHjoICAAQFhAeEApQAFiaOWDYVWgAcAB4AIABjQSIAfMdkgELOS44LjMuMS4xLjGYAQCgAQE&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:96ff2102,vid:NQAiZvDMWiU

dyor

BM - that's a pretty unpleasant post, not much of it supported by an evident understanding of how difficult and unpredictable it can be to run a junior oil co with very limited resources and a lot of outside factors to feed into the mix.

I've got used to putting up with the unsubstantiated nonsense peddled by JB, whenever there's a spark of life in the SP, but I'd have expected a bit more from you, given you're long in the shares and claim to have been around since the outset. This begs the question: why didn't you sell when the shares were near enough twice today's SP - which they have been on two or three occasions over the years?

Your comment about AB "failing to get signed disclosuresahead of the last fundraise" reveals a naivety that's generates a degree of sympathy for you finding yourself in water that's a bit too deep for your comfort. Are you sure you're cut out for this game (ie investing in oil juniors on AIM)? Do you not think you'd be wise putting your money into a Post Office savings account? I understand they're paying more than 2.5% in interest, which isn't to be sniffed at in these straitened times and there's no risk involved.

dyor

Is close to 200MMboe of API 33° 2C - plus however many MMboe of prospects going to stay under the NS when so much work has been done that remains to be validated. Does it have no value at all.

Less than 2 weeks from a ground-breaking announcement (one way or the other), the market is apparently telling us that JOG's oil is worth less than 50 cents a barrel.

My money's on it being worth a great deal more. And we'll know soon enough. Please don't let us down again, JAB.

dyor

As Einbert might say: " 'old yer roses", JS. I think the term "stellar investor" is best applied (very sparingly) to people like Warren Buffett, not me. I've had some good wins over the years, but it took me a long time to work out that long term investing is simply about fundamentals and people. I failed for a long time (too busy and didn't really care enough) to place enough emphasis on the quality of the fundamentals and the business model - both of these being a long way behind successfully assessing the capability and integrity of those running the target investment co. Ultimately it's people who count. Put two sets of managers into identical businesses and you'll likely get two entirely different outcomes. Talented people rarely fail.

My introduction to JOG came via my holding in Trapoil (TRAP). The less said about that the better. I got caught, along with many others, as a result of an individual holder (to the tune of 27%) deciding he wanted to run the company - which he was allowed to do (by those on the board he hadn't yet had removed). The unfortunate thing was that he evidently didn't know what he was doing, because TRAP all but went bust. It was only through the actions of one shareholder, who stood up at the May 2015 AGM and gave the directors both barrels over the course of half an hour spent on his feet, that the remaining directors seriously got on with the task of advertising TRAP as a clean. listed vehicle, with £25m (?) of tax losses and one or two interesting licences. Step up the plate, JOG.

I was impressed from the outset by the positive attitude of the NKOTB. I joined in with the placing to raise £800k for working capital (TRAP was a busted flush) and subsequently increased my exposure many times over, as I gained confidence in the abilities of management and their obvious integrity. The fact that their own future financial success was inexorably linked to JOG's gave me added confidence.

Much water has passed under the bridge since those early days, but I have never reduced my holding. I have occasionally top-sliced a few shares, but have always bought back in to previous or higher levels. The resources JOG has at its disposal now, given its declared near term objectives should give all holders confidence. JOG has advanced to where it is despite conditions having gone against it - and the O&G sector in general. In no particular order of importance, they've had to undure and overcome: the initial drill at Verbier (that took a sidetrack well to prove sucessful); the subsequent failure with an appraisal drill (Equinor chose the location); COP 26 in Glasgow; interference from GT, the Swedish fanatic and other protest groups; and most recently the utter electioneering (is there such a word? If not there should be) evident from Sunakhunt in imposing a hugely destructive tax rate of 75% on the industry, when there's no justification for doing so - it's plain theft.
tbc

The fantasy world I inhabit doesn't look too shabby from where I'm sitting, JB. How I got to inhabit it would take too long to recount, but somewhere along the line it involved making the right business decisions, which term includes investing for capital gain. Clearly I must have got more decisions right than wrong, as I definitely didn't start off where I have ended up! I am presently hopeful that JOG, SQZ and HBR will add significantly to my fantasies in the medium term. Whilst there is soime short term SP bashing going on, HBR is presently yielding more <8% and SQZ <10%

Many of those who post on this blog are longer term investors who have put a lot of time and effort into understanding JOG's business model and analysing and assessing the applicable characteristics. There are no certainties in the oil & gas sector. Every serious investor knows this. Understanding the risks and weighing them against the potential future gains is key to eventual investment success. As is being able to trust directors, charged by investors with the task of realising ultimate shareholder value, by discharging their duties with skill and integrity.

JOG has some compelling fundamentals you seem intent on ignoring. Name a better opportunity for a profitable NS producer to avoid payment of tax at 75% and secure a modest contribution towards the development cost of GBA licences on 190mmboe of 2C resources that are more certain than the average 2C (by virtue of the 50MMboe certified to remain in Buchan when the rig failed in Aug 2017.

Tell us - using something other than just "gut feel" - why JOG represents such poor value and we can start a proper debate. My gut feel is you can't.

My take is there'll be a few people kicking themselves this week or next. Time will tell.

dyor

...........you come across as a sad individual, JB. Have you really got nothing better to do than trash other people's investments (not just JOG) on a blog site like LSE? And it's been going on for a long time.

Sad.....yes, that's the word.

..........."Dick, living up to your name"..........

...........haven't got time to respond .......... I'm desperate to get to the John............

JB - according to the DUED, "gullable" means "capable of achievement by seagulls".

What day next week are you expecting news of a FO, or do you think it's impossable?

In case it was too difficult for readers to understand (or they couldn't be bothered to look), the link to Companies House re Repsol Sinopec's directors shows the following:
THOMAS, Leslie James
Correspondence address
163 Holburn Steet, Aberdeen, Scotland, Scotland, AB10 6BZ
Role ACTIVE
Director
Date of birth
March 1957
Appointed on
11 December 2020

In case people have forgotten, Repsol Sinopec UK was operator of Buchan until the licence/s were surrendered following a rig failure in 2017. The licences (principally Buchan & J2 (?)) were subsequently awarded to JOG following a bidding process. The link is to the RS website - more specifically: "operations". Seems odd they would still list an interest in Buchan when (as far as I can recall) decommissioning was commpleted 2 or 3 years ago.

Perhaps they just couldn't bear to let go.................
https://www.repsolsinopecuk.com/operations#Buchan

If anyone can throw more light on the subject it would be interesting.

dyor

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/00825828/officers

Re: "DU's 23 March has a 1 in 11 chance of success"................it's difficult to fault your logic, MPO, but you've forgotten to factor in my crystal ball, which allows me an occasional glimpse into the future. It sometimes predicts things that seem entirely unrealistic, but nonetheless go on to become true. As an example, it predicted recently that Everton would win a Premiership match before the end of March. Lo and behold, the very next week they only went on to beat the mighty Brentford 1-0 at Goodison Park. How weird is that?

Mt crystal ball is predicting a good result from Andrew (Rafa) Benitz within the same sort of time-frame.

dyor - I'm sticking with 23 March

I'm surprised FOMO hasn't kicked in here.

There'll either be (i) riotous laughter from those who have jumped ship recently, or have failed to take seriously what JOG's CEO said in the 29 Nov 2022.............. and therefore haven't bought into the JOG story - or (ii) much weeping and gnashing of teeth if the SP surges on news of a done deal that will finally deliver the value much talked of, but not so far seen by shareholders, who have largely put up the capital to get JOG to today's MC of £59m (valuing Buchan, J2 and Verbier at less than 50 cents a barrel and everything else at nothing). Why are oilcos doing any exploration - might as well pack up and go home.

I'm forecasting next Thursday - 23 March.

There are alternative scenarios. Don't take any notice of what I've got to say - form your own views.

JMOfwiw
DYOR

As I understand things, when the 100% capital allowances claimed on projects to date start to reverse from an accounting standpoint (timing differences, inter alia, are provided for in "deferred tax") they will do so at the rate of tax applicable in the year of the reversal. The most recent indication of what that rate will be is 75%, so the 'non'cash' tax charge in HBR's latest P&L accounts represents the increase in the deferred tax liability in HBR's balance sheet from {$N x 40%} to {$N x 75%}.

Isn't accounting thrilling, eh?

Why are accountants sometimes referred to as Rhinos? Because they're thick-skinned, short-sighted and charge a lot.
Recently put a toe in the water here at 299p and 284p. Shrewd as ever with my timing but I invest for the longer term in undervalued stocks and imv there aren't many better value propositions than HBR at present. I admire Linda Cook's stance againt the popularity-seeking Sunakhunt. Wish other CEO's were similarly robust

dyor

Einbert - in your view, how long should I expect to be holding my roses ? I'm a bit worried they might wilt if it's the very end of the month.............