Member Info for dickupham

Taken from HBR's recent year end results announcement:

2023 Outlook
............ Total capex guidance reiterated at c.$1.1 billion, including c.$0.2 billion decommissioning, split 85 per cent UK / 15 per cent international

- UK capex targeting high return, near field and/or infrastructure-led opportunities

.......the missing link:

https://www.harbourenergy.com/about-us/our-history/chrysaor/

I'd steer clear of HBR is I were you - I own shares in the Company :-)

Greener - re "Harbour is a US company"...................not so. HBR is a UK company, deriving about 90% of its production from the NS. The link provides more information.

Linda Cook is one of the very few UK O&G CEO's who's had the balls to tell Sunakhunt where to go with its heist on an industry whose financial health is vital not only to the UK Treasury (via taxes on profits that will disappear faster than Sunakhunt can say "will you vote for us now all you lazy and feckless types who've got plenty to spend on booze, f.ags, bingo, football, holidays but who haven't got enough to pay your food and energy bills - have I missed anything - ok we'll take even more away from all those silly people who've got savings we can tap if you vote for us) but also for national security.

Don't get me going.

Come on Benitz - pull your finger out - if you're waiting for something helpful from the UK Goventment forget it. The best you'll get is empty words. They're all spineless cowards who don't think about anything other than votes.

dyor

I was only pulling your leg, everhopeful. Keep the posts coming in - your common sense must be disarming to some...........

I'm surprised there isn't more excitement ahead of what should be game changing news, assuming we're not let down at the last minute. The shares were trading at 350p in October. I can't think the 10% added to the scurrilous EPL makes that much difference. If anything it made JOG's investment case even more compelling to those companies exposed to the full 75%.

jmo
dyor

everhopeful - why is it I suspect you don't find my posts worth reading - eg Fri 18.04hrs?

Nothing more to say here until we know what's been going on behind the scenes.

Just for interest.........note the gravitas (missing) of the bearded freak who supposedly challenges the data presented:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg

JB - the market allowed Warren Buffett to make a fortune by doing the opposite:
"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

The whole point of investing (as far as I am concerned) is to spot opportunities others have missed, with the SP at the point of investing failing to reflect the fundamentals supporting the investment case. A company's share price is only a reflection of the difference in volume between those wanting to buy and those wanting to sell.

Your suggestion that a limited number of small short term traders, who are getting nervous because they see a cliff the SP is going to fall off if a farm out isn't announced by 31 March, are better qualified than any number of longer term investors who have taken the trouble to understand the fundamentals and assess the risks, to judge the present circumstances and act on them (by sitting tight - as I am doing) is, at best, unintelligent. It is certainly meddlesome - as it's clear your loud views aren't backed up by anything of substance.

The judgment call is whether AB was over-optimistic in saying he expected a positive outcome to FO discussions by the end of March. It's about judging an individual. JOG's oil - and its circumstances - won't change that much if the deadline is missed (I'm not expecting this to happen but that's just my take). What would probably happen if it was missed is that the SP would fall significantly - thereby causing a bigger gap to open up between fair value and SP. But it would not be the end of the story (except, perhaps,for AB - others are also no doubt involved in the ongoing highly complex discussions who are eminently qualified to bring matters to a positive conclusion).

Ooooooo............I'm so fwightened............

dyor

Greener - when do you see JOG making a profit that would be subject to any tax at all?

The attractions for a profitable UKCS - otherwise liable to pay EPL, as well as the standard 40% (ie 75% in total) on its UKCS profits - of farming into JOG and providing a carry of whatever amount to JOG on future development spend, are clear to see.

What is not clear - to me at least - is how any cash sum paid to JOG on the act of farm out would be either taxed in JOG's hands or treated for tax purposes in the hands of the farmer in. Tax wasn't my specialism when I was in practice, least of all in O&G companies in which my experience was zilch.

Make what you will of HMRC's guidance on the subject:
https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/oil-taxation-manual/ot30021

My general approach to the tricky subject of tax - particularly since Sunakhunt's damaging interventions - is that there's a lot of development spend to be done and any farm in deal will be structured with a view to minimising the incidence of the 75% super-heist by incompetents in government focused on winning votes from the lefties and the masses generally (by being seen to punish producers of dirty carbon energy who are even worse than people already think because they're paying dividends to disgusting shareholders (the fact that the vast majority of these dividends find their way into ordinary folks' pension funds is strangely never mentioned).

Basically, a lot of profitable UKCS with limited future CAPEX in their 5 year plans should be queuing up to get a chunk of what JOG has to offer. How much they might be willing to pay is another matter. NPV10s will have halved as a result of the tax hike from 40 to 75%, because they're produced from DCF projections that set out the net cash projected to be generated over the life of whatever project is being valued. The following might help - if people don't mind putting on their thinking hats: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/npv.asp

How I hate what this country has become.

Good luck all - wouldn't like to be short of these shares at present (which I'm not - I added 15k more yeaterday - struck a bit early at 190 & 192.9p - who cares?. That's just a personal view, however. Been waiting 8 years (nearly) - hardly the right time to lose my nerve.................go for it, I say. Hope "ouch" isn't the end play!!

dyor etc etc

GLAL

From yesterday's annual results:
"Harbour's tax expense increased in 2022 to $ 2,454 million (2021: $213 million), primarily driven by the introduction of the EPL.
The tax expense is split between a current tax expense of $706 million (2021: $192 million), which includes an EPL current tax charge of $326 million, and a deferred tax expense of $1,748 million (2021: $21 million). Of the deferred tax expense, $1,469 million relates to a one-off non-cash deferred tax charge due to the introduction of the EPL of which $148 million reversed in the period. This arises because the deferred UK tax position on our balance sheet has been revalued from 40 per cent to 75 per cent where relevant to reflect the increase in our future tax rate in the period to March 2028. The total tax charge therefore includes a total of $1,647 million in relation to the EPL.

The effective tax rate is 100 per cent (2021: 68 per cent) materially higher than the blended standard UK tax rate for the period of 55 per cent. This increase is driven by the one off deferred tax charge associated with the introduction of the EPL partially offset by the profits from our international assets being subject to a lower tax rate."

They're not making it up!!

I have two dogs actually. One is cleverer than the other. Neither is called Andrew, but the less clever of the two is called James.

JB - I'm thrilled (as a retired CA) to be called "dangerous". I've decided not to tell the wife in case it gets her all excited - I'm quite busy today and haven't got the time.

In my defence, I've been invested (based on the fundamentals and the people) since the outset (July 2015) and I was invested in TRAP for 2 or 3 years before that. Trap was a disappointment for reasons for reasons too complex to explain here and it would serve no useful purpose to do so. You wouldn't understand anyway. Virtually all my posts have carried the health warning: "imo" or "dyor" and I have pointed out on multiple occasions that O&G stocks, particularly junior explorers, are not for widows and orphans, because risk can never be eliminated. People on these boards are adults and should make their own decisions. I don't particularly gain from reading posts written by others, although the more astute posters provide food for thought and promote balanced consideration of the matters they raise. The general idea is to gain a better overall understanding of one's investments, with a view to increasing one's wealth in the loner term.

I have not found a single post of yours helpful in this latter regard. My guess is that: (i) you're not very clever and (possibly as a result) (ii) you're one of life's losers.

What bad luck.

I continue to hope there will be positive news in the timescale AB indicated - there are 3 weeks left for this to happen. Even if FO discussions spill over to April, or even beyond, it's not the end of the story, because I remain of the view that JOG offers one of, if not 'the', best opportunities for a profitable producing UKCS O&G company to mitigate the effects of the 75% tax rate imposed on the industry last year by the clowns in government.

As ever, the above is jmo.

Dyor

PS: My gut feeling is that the strong winds will ease off a bit later on today.

Do you find this helpful?

..........as if anyone with sense gives a fig about what you and JB think, JS. My dog understands a lot more than you do about everything you've amply demonstrated you fail to master.........

No offence intended - guess you just weren't born very smart.............

dyor

.....well said, FJ

yes - as I read it, C61

Mommur - I watched with interest for a while before deciding to reduce my holding further and switch into HBR (based on management with backbone, longer perm prospects of SP recovery and trust in a generous dividend policy ).

My feeling, right or wrong, is that the prospect of being taken private for not much above the then SP, when the 18 month "prevention clause" will overhang the SP until it happens. The lower the SP, the better for Mercuria and the people who are streets ahead of SQZ's sleepy and naive team - if that's how they can be described.

SQZ's directors should consider writing a book (OK - a pamphlet) entitled: "how to stop a rare success story for shareholders in its tracks in a single move - picking up significantly higher remuneration in the process"

I would ordinarily write "dyor" at this stage, but no research on this is necessary - all seems pretty clear to me

Some relevant facts for a change:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-Iu1i317E

You might be right Einbert, but I'd heard he was busy researching investment fundamentals based on the theory that any investment held for gain can only have one value: the present value of all the cash that investment will generate during its period of ownership. The initial acquisition cost is treated as an outgoing and the disposal value as income (if this isn't too obvious) . When I last asked the person I know (who knows RL's butler and one of his other domestic servants) how he was getting on, he told me he had progressed to page 59, by which time the book is exploring the relationship between a company's share price and the cash it is ultimately likely to generate cash. This is the difficult bit where a company isn't yet generating income, because things like hope and prayer are quite difficult to accurately ascribe a value to. I make it £43 but this is a bit "finger in the air" and it might be closer to a fiver. Or something in between. Higher than it's been recently, that's for sure.

I've been researching buses.............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCfO1Iz7Tg4

dyor

.........Dick, we will be expecting a D-RNS......

......you've lost me, Squizz. I'm a simple-minded type - what's a D-RNS??

Surety - politicians are not to be trusted. Everything they do is in the cause of winning (or not losing) votes, futile though the task is for Sunakhunt. Guess they must just be socialists of the worst type - rich themselves but spouting socialist principles like they're going out of fashion. They're liars on top, because the picture they present to the cerebally-challenged masses is designed to make them hate the companies - a whole sector of such companies in this case - they're stealing from. What they have imposed is not a windfall tax at all - it is a straightforward heist - 75% of ALL their profits (not just the windfall ones - not that there are many because both oil and gas prices are well below levels that applied on 24 Feb last year). F*** the reinvestment relief - every last penny of profits resulting from reinvestment in the NS will be taxed at puntitive rates ad infinitum. Once imposed, taxes are very seldom withdrawn, so don't raise your hopes there.. It doesn't work like that, otherwise all the damaging laws, policies, taxes - call them what you will - imposed in the termianlly destructive criminal Blair's era of deceit and dishonesty would have been thrown out when Cameron's wets got in - he wanted the PM's job so badly he wouldn't risk going back to the country with a bolder manifesto, instead going into coalition with the neo-socialist LibDems. But those laws, policies, entitlements in their thousands, weren't thrown out because every Conservative PM since 2010 has been pitifully weak and more interested in pleasing the masses than changing the direction of Britain's travel towards third world status.

Anyway, back to the point, why would anyone trust either Mr Bouncy Big Ears or Mr Slime for the sake of waiting a few days.

My view, fwiw, is there'll be an announcement towards the end of Budget week or (wait for it) "if not by the Friday of that week, then certainly in the following week".

I added 15250 shares yesterday in 2 lots @164p and 165p. The term "glutton for punishment" comes to mind.........

GL

I only posted the AIM rules in response to the nonsense spouted by Robsroom in the previous post. Of course there are rules to follow. In this connection I have commented many times on the professionalism of JOG's directors when it comes to running the company two of them (one since 'retired') founded in 2014.

I have an issue with communications - imv causing shareholders to expect a result much earlier than it's actually been delivered (assuming one is). Then again, we don't know how many obstacles have been thrown into their path since the RNS of 29 November and how difficult they have been to circumvent or move out of the way. If he had the chance to redraft the 29 November RNS, perhaps JAB would have expressed confidence only in securing a positive outcome by the end of Q1. his would very probably had a different effect on the SP, which loses ground daily as less confident holders bail out for fear of the price tanking in the event of the 31 March deadline being missed.

Everyone in JOG will have been doing their darndest for a long time to get a farm out agreed on terms that are the best possible for all shareholders. The directors and other personnel have a vested interest in the outcome themselves as most, if not all, have shares and/or options the value of which is directly linked to their efforts.

There'll be news before too long. Why not tomorrow? Probably because if it was tomorrow something would have leaked and the price wouldn't still be moving in the direction it is.

It doesn't strike me as being a good time to be losing one's nerve but wdik?

GL