Member Info for dickupham

MPO818 - unless my memory is now failing me as well, I'm pretty sure we've been told somewhere recently that cash is not a pressing issue. Can anyone recall what's been said about it of late? Cash burn in H1 2022 was just over £4m in the 6 months, but there was a lot going on in that period, so It's doubtful that rate of spend would have continued since. Cash at 30/06/22 stood at £8.7m. So, unless there's something I'm not taking into account, JOG should be ok cashwise until the end of Q3 at least .

The situation generally has become very frustrating. Days and weeks come and go. Enthusiasm wanes as the 7am announcements reveal lots of interesting news of other companies' progress, but alas none involving JOG. Hints were given it might be all done before Christmas. Now here we are approaching the end of January and still nothing. Give me strength. Many of us LTHs have had (and are still having) our patience - and our faith - severely tested.

When I make the effort to think calmly and even-handedly about where things are likely to stand, however, it invariably strikes me how complex it must be trying to finalise agreements intended to last 30 years or more, when politicians cause the sand to shift under everyone's feet; Putin's insanity has thrown a bomb into industry metrics; the super-hypocritical tree huggers -seemingly now about half the population - continue to bang on about global warming when the root cause of the world's problems is overpopulation. And that's not all. Do poverty stricken billions in Africa and SE Asia - and the dictators who rule them - care that sea levels in 30 years time will be about 4 feet higher than they are now? What the UK says or does doesn't matter. The UK only accouts for c.1.5% of global emissions and has already cut carbon output by about 50% in the last 25 years. It's all manure.

Fact of the matter is JOG is in control of one of the biggest ("oil volume" wise) and most sought-after parts of the NS. So how likely is it that JOG's oil is going to remain untapped for long? Despite Sunak's and Starmer's idiotic views on how to further damage the UK economy and leave us dependent on other countries for the energy needed for the country to work, JOG is in a good place. (Sorry, did I say "work"?? I humbly beg your pardon. Just for clarification, I didn't mean to suggest that people in Britian should work - certainly not the majority anyway. Heaven forbid. The money Rishy and Stoma are stealing from UKCS producers is to allow Britain's work-shy millions to avoid the embarrassment of having to get a job. They've got bills to pay you know - and booze, bingo and Benidorm aren't getting any cheaper).

Anyway, back on topic, it's said the darkest hour is just before dawn. My take fwiw? Maybe we're closer than we think? Stranger things (than reading an early RNS on topic) have happened at sea.

Keep the faith

all imo only - always dyor

..................just coming, nurse..............

Who's saying "FO" to whom in your view, James?

In case it's of interest, here's a link to the other exchange where JOG shares are traded.
https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/member?securityidaqse=JOG.GB

Another morning fuitlessly combing the 7am RNSs for news. I'm fed up to the back teeth with wishing away what precious life remains.......

S*** or get off

He's also said that the so called: "loophole" relating to new investment in the NS (effectively reducing the cash cost of infrastructure etc on new projects to around 9p per £) ........

..........will immediately be withdrawn........

Apologies - I was all in a lather and didn't check what I'd written.

Why all of us as a class of people whose accumulated savings should be stolen so that fat oafs and other benefits claimants can enjoy the high life?

Hate to put a downer on it but you're being excessively optimistic, steven.

Starmer has said the tax rate is being increased to 78% when he gets in next year (aligning it with Norway for some strange reason - my understanding is that Norway has a more generous capital allowances regime, so he's being choosy on that score). He's also said that the so called: "loophole" relating to new investment in the NS (effectively reducing the cash cost of infrastructure etc on new projects to around 9p per £).

Oh - and btw Labour is banning all new investment as soon as they get in.

Let's hear it for Labour. Putting Britain first. Effing morons - they just haven't got a clue. The exodus of oil & gas companies from the NS will be beyond measure. Oil & gas prices will go through the roof, mainly because the cost of importing what the UK needs will scale new heights. And the carbon cost???????? Let's not go there

dyor

Infor - I expect they've given whatever cash has been banked since 23 September to Mercuria, along with the rest of the company we thought we owned a share of.

SQZ has quickly become a tale of misaligned interests. There has to be something that's persuaded SQZ's directors to incinerate value (using Jeremy Raper's terminology) in such a blatant way. SQZ will be all tucked up nicely inside Mercuria, with all the cash sucked out of it, before we ever get to find out why Anthony Craven Walker, Mitch Flegg and Andy Bell behaved as they did.

Always follow the money. The problem here is that we have no idea what's been agreed in discussions that had clearly been going on for months before we got any wind of the circumstances leading up to the theft of our money.

I'm out of the Stock Market when my two remaining investments (that's turned out to be a laughable term) play out. It's all just too dishonest. I'm not now expecting much better - if anything's better at all - from JOG, although in JOG's case I don't blame the directors; I blame politicians for crashing the UK's oil & gas industry, so that professional benefits claimants that make up more than 50% of the population can have all their booze and holidays paid for by people who've been daft enough to work hard, behave with decency and put something away for a rainy day. Sadly for them, now that its raining, they've discovered the "something" has been stolen. And all in plain sight by people I have no doubt whatsoever will benefit personally from their acts of treachery.

Just as well I'm in a good mood today. Quick question: does anyone seriously believe all the "no" votes will be recorded if it looks as if the outcome might be a close call? I wonder how many "yes" proxies the chairman of the meeting will be said to be holding?

all imo
dyor

Thanks for your kind comments, Mommur. Yes, I'm still around and managing to keep the grim reaper at bay, albeit at a cost because the side effects of the monthly injections have been pretty debilitating at times and my mobility has been poor these past 9 months. The only way to approach the situation as far as I'm concerned is to stay positive and remain as active and focused as posssible.

Off topic and just as a matter of interest, were any holders here investors in Juridica Investments Limited, which was the first litigation funding outfit to list in the UK (on AIM in late 2007, about 2 years before Burford Capital). If so, I can apprise them of recent events they might find interesting. I've been working on it since 2015.

"I work in the City and am very trustworthy, thank you"...........

.....do you ever engage in stock lending NS?

Mommur - I've often wondered why Serica was chosen to be the recipient of such largesse courtesy of BP, which could have chosen anyone to take BKR off it on such favourable terms. A conspiracy theorist might speculate that BKR was only "lent" to SQZ to make money out of for a defined period. I can't find any reason to support a deal that to me and most others who have commented would "incinerate" value for SQZ's owners, at the same time leaving it open for Mercuria to take out all other shareholders at below fair value when the lock-in provisions expire 18 months after this act of sabotage (ie the deal terms being enacted). I have banged on before about SQZ's directors failing to protect us as shareholders from the risk of becoming victims of Mercuria's entirely possible intention to do just that that. I outlined to members of this forum a straightforward way in which it is usual to mitigate such risk - the introduction of a so-called "poison pill" clause to prevent a dominant shareholder becoming an all-consuming one on terms that deny other shareholders the value due to them.

I raised the issue with MF and ACW and received a reply last Sat from ACW, who urged me to follow the directors example and support the deal. He did not address the "poison pill" issue, simply saying : "I am also a very significant shareholder and would not be supporting this transaction if I felt that it was value-destructive or impacting the Company’s independence. I am not sure why you think the Board would put forward a proposal if it felt otherwise".
I say again, if Mercuria has no intention of taking SQZ private when the 18 month lock-in period ends, then what possible objection could it have to the inclusion of a "poison pill" clause? It isn't safe to trust anyone in the City in modern times. At best ACW is naive in not protecting just us, but himself as well.

The deal just doesn't stack up. I and no doubt others will be keeping a close eye on how events pan out if (as I expect it will) a "yes" vote prevails. I hesitate to say it but it could be one for the SFO to look into in the not too distant future if certain events occur that further damage shareholders interests.

I won't speculate on the timing or significance of the move outlined below.
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - BP's (BP.L) longstanding head of mergers and acquisitions Robert Lawson has left the energy company to join Swiss-based commodity trading house Mercuria.

Lawson, who joined BP in 1990, left the company in November and was replaced by Sam Skerry, who had been leading BP's new ventures division that invests in start-up technology companies, a BP spokesperson said.

Mercuria confirmed Lawson joined as an executive vice president.

Lawson oversaw the sale and acquisition of over $100 billion worth of oil and gas assets, including huge divestments the company had to make to pay for the costs of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico".

all imo
dyor

..........all depends on whether Buchan, J2, Verbier et al count as "new developments" to Stoma. As usual, Labour's plans are far from clear. They're very good at blaming the Conservative Democratic Socialist party for eerything that's wrong, but they're not so good at saying what they would do that's different.

If JOG's fields count as "in progress", then I agree there's no better candidate on the UKCS for Companies paying the punative 75% tax on profits to farm into or (preferably) buy outright. My hope is that "multiple parties" interest remains strong and that the reason for the delay in getting a deal put to bed is the range of options open to pursue. I trust JOG's management to deliver - even exceed - what shareholders are expecting of them. Exactly when a deal will be signed is difficult to gauge, but logically it has to be before 31 March or someone's going to be under pressure.

I've given up guessing dates.

dyor
glal

No point in not recognising the predator at the door: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/davos-2023-starmer-says-no-140558591.html

Both the Conservaties and Labour seem hell-bent on preventing progress towards self-sufficiency for the UK in oil and gas, last achieved in 2004, before Labour's taxes got to work on reducing the overall flow of cash into the Treasury.

Will they never learn? Immediately withdraw licence permissions already granted? I thought he was supposed to be a lawyer.

Hope no-one JOG is in negotiations with has read Stoma's (sorry............Starmer's) latest utter c.rap.

Here's wishing him an early transition failure in his super-green car - preferably on a motorway at about 4.30am, when it's pi55ing with rain and there's a howling gale.

dyor and siuya Stoma if you're reading this

I see that Amati Global Investors has dropped out (4.18% @ 30 Sept 2022). Not sure "investment pros" have to notify the Company (which then notifies the market via RNS) when a holding falls below 5% but a residual holding of 3% should surely be disclosed? Anyone an expert in these matters? Could always try phoning JOG. I sold my phone (and my bike) to a nurse down the foodbank.
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/investors/shareholder-information/

Percentage of securities not in public hands:

2.87%

Number of shares in issue:

32,554,293 (with a nominal value of 1p each)

Last updated:

31 December 2022

SIGNIFICANT SHAREHOLDERS
Name Percent
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers 15.91%
Interactive Investor 7.29%
Mr J Baldwin 6.51%
Mr Nicholas Robinson 5.10%
A J Bell, stockbrokers 4.23%
Barclays Smart Investor 4.11%
HSDL, stockbrokers 3.99%
Janus Henderson 3.53%
Quilter Cheviot Inv Mgt 3.46%
Ronald Lansdell 3.28%
Any person with a holding of 3% or more in any class of AIM security (excluding treasury shares)

"Come on James, let us know who you are"..........................

..................https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78N2SP6JFaI

Pearls of wisdom, eh? You haven't had many of those from me of late as I've been afflicted by false optimism. Based on what we were told by AB on 29 November, I was half expecting a FO announcement before Christmas. When no such deal was forthcoming in 2022, my next thought was: "probably understandable given everything stops for about 3 weeks in December. It's logical to think we'll hear something a week or so after everyone gets back to work in January".

Alas, here we all are on 18 January still waiting. I feel like a right nincompoop for failing to spot the get out clause: "certainly by the end of Q1", which bought JOG's people another 4 months.

Best not to say any more.

dyor

Just for interest............

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/01/the-2023-bucket-list/

Thanks NS. My comments were somewhat tongue-in-cheek , although the concept of paying a vendor the full value (including future potential) of an asset, or group of assets is one that's alien to me. Where's the benefit to the buyer?

I did a lot of M&A related work during my career but hung my boots up at 50 to amuse myself in other ways thereafter.

Glad to learn you place investors welfare ahead of personal gain. Must put you in the minority.

I respect your views and opinions - each to his own I say. Good luck to you and yours. Hope you make the right decision when the time comes to vote (assuming you haven't already done so). There are aspects of the proposed deal that are attractive because at present SQZ is something of a "one trick pony" - Rhum dwarfs everything else. That said, it's a highly profitable field, even if shareholders are exposed to more risk than it would be usual to find in a company with SQZ's m/c.

If Mercuria's intentions are honourable, then why no "poison pill" type of protection for shareholders? We seem to be expected just to take MF's word that M won't "do the dirty" and make a derisory offer for the 71% it won't own, with the muscle to block an approach from "white knights" prepared to offer more. If I hadn't been caught in the past (twice) it would be less of an issue to me. What posible objection could M have to a poison pill clause and why has MF not insisted on making one a part of the deal.

Answers on a postcard.........

dyor

That's a new one on me. A buyer pays the vendor for the future profits that will flow as a result of the future efforts of the buyer. Nice work for the vendor, who gets the benefit of these efforts in advance, with the buyer playing catch-up to recover his investment cost. Same principle applies to tax losses, which also rely on future activities to create value.

Ref the investment funds you say you run..................don't call me :-)

Can I ask what are your professional qualifications? No offence intended - just curious.

I wonder how many successful (or otherwise) deals Mitch Flegg has pulled off in his career. He seems to me to be missing some basic principles. On the face of it he's been well and truly out-smarted by some slick operators. If they get to occupy the roles earmarked for them, I suspect it's going to be a case of "mind yer fingers".

A pitiful article by Hamish Penman in Energy Voice (12 January). Very few so-called "investment professionals" seems to understand anything these days. I set out below the text of an email I sent to EV's editor earlier today. Hopefully EV will revise their thinking. I know what MF said about TW's cash earnings reducing the debt outstanding by the time the deal is signed, but how much is he talking of and where's the evidence?
" Dear Mr Thomas
In his article headed: "Serica minor backer voices 'unmitigated disgust' over Tailwind" yesterday, your Hamish Penman referred to the cost of the deal to Serica as being £367m. This figure is materially incorrect in that, as part of the deal, Serica has agreed to take on debt of Tailwind which, at 30 November 2022, stood at £277m, thereby making the full cost of the acquisition £644m.

Tailwind boasts 2C reserves of 44m boe at 1 January 2022, which are not claimed to have been added to significantly since that date. There is much talk of future potential in Tailwind's assets, but since when did acquirers pay for potential? Ditto Tailwind's claimed tax losses b/fwd - a considerable percentage of which are ring-fenced.

The deal as presented values Tailwind's 2P (producing) reserves at approximately $18 pboe. As of today, the market assesses the value of Serica's existing 2P (also producing) reserves at approximately $6 pboe. Need one say more?

I hope you see fit to issue an amendment to your Mr Penman's article of 12 January, so as to record the facts correctly.

Put simply, this deal makes no sense for Serica's shareholders. I and most other private investors will be voting against the proposal to issue new shares that will hand effective control of our company to Mercuria, a Swiss PE outfit run by (imo) corporate jackals. The proposals announced to SQZ's mostly loyal band of shareholders before Christmas comprehensively fail "the smell test" - always assuming it is not rats one is sniffing for.

I speak for c.250k shares. I would be grateful if you would acknowledge receipt of this email"

jmofwiw/dyor

Greener: re "(Forbes) knows a lot more about running a operational oiler where AB hasn't one iota of experience"...........

..........this is untrue. The link is to the Energy Council website dating back to 2020
https://energycouncil.com/event-speakers/andrew-benitz/
"Prior to co-founding Jersey Oil and Gas, Andrew was Chief Executive Officer and Director at Longreach Oil and Gas Ltd, a TSX-V listed company. He joined Longreach in 2009 as Chief Operating Officer when it was a small private company and helped oversee the company’s growth, building a significant portfolio of oil and gas assets in Morocco".

Just for the record, I have never suggested AB has not acted with total integrity in causing people to believe what they did in relation to timing of progress in JOG. He might perhaps be criticised for being over-optimistic as to outcome but, in his defence, JOG hasn't enjoyed much luck when it has come down to outcomes of various events that could easily have gone in JOG's favour but sod's law detemined did not. He can certainly (that word again) NOT be criticised for his work ethic, or for what he has striven to achieve for the greater good, even if I can't say I have always been that impressed with the way he has gone about achieving what he thought was best for the majority.

The strong balance of probability is that a farm out agreement (at minimum) will be signed sooner rather than later. In the meantime we have to wait, frustrating though this process has become - and is getting more frustrating by the day. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if JOG had stacks of cash on hand to see it through any delays without exposing itself to being pushed into a corner because the other side knows it's running short of working capital and can't realistically go back to the market for more. The counter to this is to have a queue of suitors keen to sign on the dotted line. Let's hope there still multi-party interest in farming into an opportunity that;s too good to resist.

News next week anyone???

dyor

I'm well aware of what AB wrote towards the end of November, MPO818. I could also quote you verbatim the words used when we were told 2021 was going to be the year of JOG then - when nothing much happened - 2022. Now it's 2023.

I was simply expressing my frustration with the seemingly endless waiting.

What my "gut feel" might be doesn't amount to much. Like "hope", it is not a valid investment strategy.

Let's hope there some real substance to what AB has effectively promised us this time around. And that it happens soon.

HNY to you too, PC01.

Quick question. Why would extraction cost (to JOG) be $40pb? The number most recently quoted (as far as I recall anyway) was $32pb, made up of $22 capex and $10pb opex. The idea of a FO is to give JOG as much of a free carry on capex as is consistent with the % of the action they manage to retain (in your experience 10-30%). So there should be precious little capex in JOG's overall extraction cost pb. Makes the wait to first oil more justifiable you might argue.

Ref today's two big trades, according to one broker one had a line drawn through it (not sure what this means). Punters could sell parcels of 1000 shares and buy multiples of 25k up to 100k shares. Suggests the seller/s is/are still around. Might take an announcement to clear them out.

Just a personal view, but the likelihood of someone paying 400% of the current SP to buy the Company is remote. I'm more in Abatt's territory.

As I have observed before, it's high time AB & Co got off the pot. They've had ample time to cross all the Ts and dot all the Is. My gut feel is that if it doesn't happen this month it's not going to. And it's mostly thanks to the t.wats Sunak and Hunt - I won't say what else as I'll be accused of being negative. People make deals and JOG is likely to be up against some pretty experienced and hard-nosed types.

Did anyone else hear Sunak telling everyone yesterday how proud he is of Britain's NS industry? And Hunt a few days ago saying he's instructed someone or other (probably a civil servant working from home) to check if the market is operating efficiently because the price of oil is a lot lower now than when Russia invaded Ukraine, yet the price at the pumps is so much higher. Welcome to the world of greed and cheating Rishihunt. It's par for the course, not that you'd know it. You're interested in different form of cheating and lying, which enables us to tell the difference between politicians and decent human beings. Strangely no admission from *unt that in the circumstances the EPL is grossly unfair and will immediately be withdrawn and only reintroduced if BC remains above $90 for however long. That would lose the votes of the 'politics of envy' brigade so don't hold your breath.

Shooting would be too good for these people

dyofr