RE: SP6 Jun 2023 10:59
Not really sure why JOG is taking such a battering. There just seems to be a complete lack of interest in the shares.
The price only reached a disappointing 250p or thereabouts on the recent FO announcement, when the terms of the FO and the quality of JOG's new intended partner were A1. Since then the shares have fallen more than 25%. If this was industry-wide it would be more understandable, but it isn't. It's justified, given the numerous milestones it's likely shareholders will be able to tick off in the next few months, as they're achieved. At around £60m, its market cap isn't much more than the petty cash NEO and a second farminee will be paying JOG as a sweetner on picking up 75% or thereabouts of the GBI action that should result in JOG retaining a fully carried 20-25% of licences that will provide it with pretax profit of £100m or more a year from about 2026/7 onwards.
It shouldn't be forgotten that buying undervalued shares is the key to successful investing, so it might be argued that now is a better time to be buying than selling. I didn't feel too clever (having supported the original placing of shares at 22p to provide working capital in August 2015) when the SP fell to 8p by Feb 2016, entirely as a result of the BC price falling off a cliff, which didn't do JOG any harm. So I bought more shares. My only regret is that I didn't have more cash available in my dealing account. I was also motivated by Warren Buffett's saying: "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". I worked out that JOG, at 8p, which AB & RL had bet their ranches on and employed 9 people, all focused on achieving success, had a market cap of less that the value of my house (it's comfortable but hardly a palace). Anyway, you get my drift. Follow the herd, or sit fearfully on the side if you want, but it won't make you big bucks. There's no guarantee JOG will make s/hs a fortune, but it seems to me there's more chance of the price going close to what 4 different analysts say they're worth, than there is of JOG going bust.
Upcoming milestones?
1. AGM in 2 weeks, with latest update on events generally (either before or after any of 2-4 below)
2. Confirmation of licence/s extension
3. Formal sign-up of NEO as 50% FO partner
4. News on development concept/s
5. Sign up 2nd FO partner - after 2-4 above
6. Continuing progress with FEED and progress towards FDP approval in H1 2024
Uncertainties?
1. Sunakhunt - although the general consensus seems to be that a floor will be set for EPL purposes. The EPL should be abandoned, unless a "windfall relief" is introduced when oil and gas prices fall for reasons beyond the control of the O&G industry.
2. Keir Stoma - although it would seem even Labour's paymasters realise how utterly inept (or dishonest - or both) he is and won't support his net zero nonsense
https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/JOG-Corporate-Presentation-23.05.23.pdf
dyor
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