Member Info for dickupham

Probably so, Einbert - but at least it's a break from the constant downtick over the last 3 months/years/decades or whatever.

Poor woman, although it's not unheard of for these chutneys to have devastating effects. I recall reading an article in the Tavistock Gazette a few years back, reporting that a Mrs Winnie Miggins of Peter Tavy (a small village in the general environs) had eaten a spoonful of a locally produced chutney ("Brentor Fire") with a piece of cheese before going to bed one evening, and had woken up in the morning over 200 yards away.

I wasn't sure at the time how much reliance to place on the label of a jar of the same "Brentor Fire" I bought locally (a pineapple and mango beaut, with a lot more than just a hint of Scotch Bonnet) that quoted two past consumers of the product: 1."Had I known of this before the Sydney Olympics, I'd easily have won gold" (A Boldon, Trinidad) and 2. "I use it as an engine lubricant - it works a treat" (D Coulthard, Scotland). I found it delicious, although I didn't see much of my dogs for a while after eating it.............

Ref my worries about Mrs DU finding out what I did to her SIPP, I might not need a divorce lawyer if JOG and SQZ start behaving themselves and get to about £5 each................

The bus has been serviced and had a full valet in readiness for use in the not too distant future.

GLAL

.............more JOG for me...........Greater Buchan Area (GBA) 2C resources presently valued at $1.2pb. These Include what (under previous ownership) was 50mmboe+ of 1P and 2P reserves (CPR certified) coming out at 5kbpd before the rig failure. Now revised upwards to 172mmboe total 2C across all GBA licences. CPR due around year end and FDP in H1 2024. NEO Energy signed up as 50% farminee with milestone cash payments along the way and bearing 62.5% of infrastructure cost to first oil anticipated 2026 (JOG 12.5% carried). Talks underway with potential secondary farminees (only one needed) to give JOG a 100% free carry, whilst retaining a 20-25% WI.

Just saying, not recommending

dyor

..............."If I'm wrong".................c'est la vie.

..........CHF. The 'judgment call' as to whether a particular trade is reported as a buy or a sell is dependent on whether the trade price is closer to the bid or the offer at the time it is executed. You'll also note a few 'unknowns', which are bang in the middle of the spread, giving no clue as to whether the trade is a buy or a sell.

So there's no conspiracy or fraud involved. A company's share price is always the result of supply vs demand. If more shares are offered for sale than are being bid for by buyers, the MMs drop the price to a level that generates buying interest. And vice versa.

It's anyone's guess what's most beenn affecting JOG's SP since the FO was announced. Ignorance, impatience, risk perception, political interference - take your pick. I decided to add a few to my holding today because I had some spare cash and didn't want it hanging around doing nothing. Most would accuse me of being reckless adding even more to my already horribly skewed share portfolio.

I don't give a flying f*** about risk. I have much more pressing things to concern me, like staying alive for long enough to enjoy the outcome of what wll be a 10 years+ investment for me. I'm not about to start panicking because others don't see the same one here as I do. If I'm wrong (don't see why I would be although nothing is impossible in investing - maybe politicians will put taxes on upstream oilcos up to 200% - who knows? They certainly ignorant enough to do something even more disingenuous and idiotic).

The directors must be in a close period, as I can't imagine they wouldn't be filling their boots at current bargain basement prices..............

Remember the words of the sage (of Omaha): "........"be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. He did ok and was good enough to share his wisdom with others - some apparently interested in JOG who know better.............

jmo

dyor

MPO - I was a bit embarrassed to say my elderly aunt in Paignton (she used to run the Post Office there - she's 104 now) also sent me a postal order which I used to buy more shares in JOG. These didn't appear on the exchange the LSE site reports trades on, but on the Aquis Exchange:

https://www.aquis.eu/companies/JOG.GB?securityidaqse=JOG.GB

27 Jul 23

14:58

4,650 157.00 7,300.50

No surprise to learn that Mrs MPO wants to keep a healthy distance between you and her purse. I imagine a few others have experienced the same kind of situation themselves. I'm saying nothing, but I'm not looking forward to Mrs DU's discovery of two oil shares in her SIPP at a lot less than the good value I saw them as being when I decided to help her. I blame her for leaving cash in the SIPP that was doing nothing...............

Know any good divorce lawyers by any chance?.................

Serica sent me a postal order MBO. I thought of investing it in SQZ and HBR but imv there's more upside in JOG.

According to a contact I trust, the chosen FPSO vessel is an open secret in Aberdeen. My inference is that it's an agreed deal that's just awaiting regulatory "rubber stamping". There'll likely be a big saving on the alternative - a bespoke vessel built to spec. This should allow JOG to strike a better deal with a 2nd farminee than it did with NEO. Retaining something close to a fully carried 25% seems realistic, given the reduced costs to first oil.

What struck me the other day, when I was contemplating why JOG's 50mmboe+ of 2C resources is valued by the market at a paltry $1.2 per barrel, is that although the rules require the oil in Buchan to be called: "contingent" - or "C", it's a lot better than that. The "2" I take to mean the probability of extraction when/if the contingent resources become reserves. Definitions aren't that clear, but one went as follows: "Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable".

Anyway, my point is that it occurred to me the market has JOG's situation completely wrong, not just in valuing assets JOG owns 50% of at a fraction of what a fully committed and exceptionally skilled oil UKCS operator (NEO Energy) valued the other 50% at only 3 months ago; but in also failing to understand that when the rig owned by the previous operator of Buchan failed on Health & Safety grounds in mid 2017 and Repsol Sinopecc handed back the licence to the NSTA (formerly OGA), a recent CPR had certified the presence of more than 50mmboe in Buchan, which must have been categorised as 1P and 2P RESERVES, because Buchan was still producing at around 5kboepd at the time - and would have continued to do so until the gradually reducing flow of oil fell to levels that made the field uneconomic, sometime in the future. The rig failure brought everything to a halt. Decommisision work on the old set-up is now complete Buchan is ready for the next chapter in its life, fully justifying its fame by still being called: "the field that just kept on producing".

JOG's experts have used 36 years of production data, latest "state of the art" seismology used to the full and geological expertise to prove to interested parties (one of which has so far committed $700m+ to take a 50% stake) the existence of $172mmboe in JOG's GBA fields (100mmboe appears to have been used as a base for the FO agreement with NEO).

With BC c.$85pb and heading up, NEO (PE owned) all signed up, a much discounted FPSO vessel about to be announced, then a 2nd FO deal leaving JOG fully carried on what could be a 25%WI, no CAPEX and poss 8-9Kpbd of production in 2026, yielding pre-tax profit of $100m pa - and all worth £50m?

People missing the bus?? Serves them right

dyor

The following are all reported as "sells", when they are "buys".

27-Jul-23 13:43:28 154.988 7,500 Sell* 153.00 158.00 11.62k O

27-Jul-23 13:38:42 154.988 1,350 Sell* 153.00 158.00 2,092 O

27-Jul-23 13:36:31 154.988 5,000 Sell* 153.00 158.00 7,749 O

Shapps can say whatever comes out of his pea-sized brain but it won't make a scrap of difference to anything unless he and his equally economically illiterate Tory colleagues stop taxing the profits of UKCS upstream oil & gas companies as if ALL their profits are windfall ones. No-one would have objected to a genuine windfall tax (unfair though it would have been because there's never any allowance when windfall losses occur; eg during the Covid years, or when prices - oil in particular - fell off a cliff in 2014-2017 as a result of the Saudis turning up the taps to close down US frackers that hadn't applied for permission to sell their product in a market controlled by the Arabs).

Brain dead? Dishonest? Economically illiterate? Disingenuous? Probably all - they all apply to a category of persons known as "politicians".

There won't be enough oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea for him to worry his pin-sized brain about "extracting 100% of". They'll all have left for richer pastures. And who can blame them. Only existing producers who are too committed to pull out will continue producing. It's already too late. HBR, Neptune, Ithaca, Total, CNOC, Enquest - they've all said "enough" and have future plans elsewhere. There'll be no forgiveness this time. They were getting close to forgiving politicians (in the form of Brown followed by Osborne) for their idiocy that led to "nil" tax revenue inflow for HMRS for nearly 3 years from 2014 to 2017. But the trust has now gone forever.

I hope that Mercuria aren't going to be too disappointed when they realise they aren't going to make quite as much out of the SQZ's directors' naivety, ignorance and greed (in no particular order) as they intended. I'm hanging on to the 15% of what I held at my peak to see how things pan out in about a year, when Mercuria is free to take SQZ private with scant compensation for us. At least the dividend seems to be ok and semi locked-in. I don't trust the rest of the numbers. Or indeed anything else about SQZ. What was a stunning investment has crumbled to dust. Amazing how 2 or 3 individual can cause so much damage, all whilst assuring us they're acting in our best interests.

May the fleas of a thousand camels infest their underpants. And the politicians' too.

all imo

dyor

............you'd be wise to stop talking sense, Donkey O - you're likely to get arrested...........

My guess is there's a lot of good work going on behind the scenes in JOG at present. I'm looking forward to learning the outcome over the comong months. Hopefully the market will soon recognise how undervalued the Company is.

More patience required for a while yet but my view is "we'll get there".

In the meantime, putting a few shillings on Brian Harman to win the Open at 110/1, 125/1 and 250/1 will keep me going for a week or two. Maybe my luck is changing................

I'll check out the status of the bus.

GLAL

dyor

"Not sure how much money BoA has made by being long only on HBR this year? Unless I am missing something..?"............

.........I think you might have misunderstood what you call:" BoA's long only holding

The trick the trading arms of some investment banks get up to these days is to establish a holding in a target company (in this case HBR) then continually sell it down with the aim of causing oversupply of shares in the market, with a consequent reduction in share price generally resulting. When the SP has fallen to a targeted level, the relevant investment bank re-enters the market to buy back however many shares it needs to to re-establish its holding. Than rinse and repeat continually.

In a nutshell, operating in this way avoids the need to borrow the shares to go short on, but the effect is the same. I have no idea why the "investment" instruments chosen are made up of so many "swaps" the terms of which are not disclosed, but I doubt very much it is intended to send the share price north.

Having these leeches attached to a company's share register is the kiss of death. Price manipulation? Nah........says the FCA, an agent of government that benefits to a huge extent (to smaller shareholders' considerable cost - in the short term at least) by taxing UK-based ops of the professional shorters (or equivalent); HMRC can't tax most of the private holders (many of whom entrust pension funds and the like to invest their retirement savings wisely). The latter rarely hesitate to lend shares they don't own to the hyenas for shorting purposes; they no longer care about investment returns because they're all at it. The skill these days in the City is who can skim the most from the 2-£3tn sitting in long term pension savings in tax wrappers.

Longer term holders are reliant on the fundamentals to produce longer term reward. They have to wait longer and longer - and suffer huge frustration along the way. It's a mug's game we like to think we can win. The LSE is shark-infested water...........swim in it at your peril. At least in HBR we have principled management with a lot of common sense and the share produce a more than decent return. Patience is the key - we'll get there in the end. Hope so anyway.

GLAL

dyor

"and we paid the price for acw and mf being scared ****less mf would show them up for what they have so far proved to be".....I meant AA of course. I was in full rant mode and failed to check my typing. I think most will get my drift..........

...........and we paid the price for acw and mf being scared ****less mf would show them up for what they have so far proved to be.............. one-licence wonders.....and they'd end up not being able to help themselves to shareholders' money in the shameless and greedy way they have. maybe even being shown the door for simply not being worth it. mf's abysmal performance at circle is probably says all anyone needs to know about strategy and execution. and in their panic at aa turning up looking for ways to build on his obvious ability at delivering shareholder value, they leap into the arms of a bunch of hyenas - either failing to tell shareholders about what subequently turn out to be unacceptable risks and place them in mortal danger of being taken out at not much more than sqz's sp when the inevitable bid to take it private comes along a year or so down the line. mercuria vs mf. i wonder what the outcome will be (particularly after a giant-sized parachute is on offer for recommending it all.

done up like kippers - par for the city in modern times. shark-infested waters doesn't comeclose to describing the situation. i wouldn't be surprised if 150p is the next stop here. and all because of enlightened self-interest in a world where honesty and integrity increasingly count for nothing.

all imo

dyor

Gotta take my hat off to you for a cracking rant, Donkey? Couldn't have done any better myself - and that's saying something.

100% accurate too............

Ref the Forties field, as I suggested a while back, you double the tax rate, you halve the economic life. Seems to have played out quite accurately in this case...............funny, that...........

Wake up Hunt, you dimwit

:-)

......courtesy of DTP on the SQZ BB earlier:

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/apache-wants-to-end-forties-production-11-years-early

Apologies, DTP - just seen you posted this earlier........put it down to age!!

..........it's working out very well, isn't it..........

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/apache-wants-to-end-forties-production-11-years-early

Clueless morons

I take it back - I was listening to the 23 April audio note (first I'd heard of it). I'm the clown, not Dan Slater.

It seems odd that JOG has only lost 40% of its value since announcing the farm out to NEO. Surely it should be more?

Slater starts off by saying JOG presently has a market cap of £90m. It's £55m.

He's now gone on holiday

NewK - do you trust Flegg to do a good deal? More of our money down the drain if he does one, I should think.

He'll of course be ok - more options, perhaps another £500kpa? You decide. I've had it with SQZ - and Flegg, ACW and the Mercuria sharks. We've been done up like kippers

dyor