Member Info for dickupham

"Dick you’re mentally invested in Jog and probably know which side of the bed Mr B gets up every morning"............

...............I don't actually, James. I only know as much about JOG (or any other company I'm interested in) as I am able to find out with a view to enabling me to make balanced and well-informed decisions about my investment/s. JOG is not my only investment.

It's pointless trying to have a sensible discussion with you about companies like PANR because you lack an understanding of the basics of investment. You are of course right in saying everyone is entitled to their opinion, but when that opinion is clearly unsupported by the facts (ie wrong), others are entitled to point this out, lest you should be taken seriously by some poor hapless soul who might think PANR is a safe bet to invest in, based on the nonsense you write.

There's a saying: "a fool and his money are soon parted". Maybe I'll be shown to be the fool, who can tell? But I'm doing ok so far, with a low buy-in cost and the end now in sight..............

.......one way or the other.

Keep piling into PANR and keep selling JOG to raise the funds to do so. You could be onto a real winner.

dyor

Morning James. Don't be sorry about selling down your JOG holding to buy more PANR, about which you stated recently: "PANR is a well run company with over a billion barrels of reserves . Our CEO needs to learn of Jay Cheatham who is an oil man through and through and regularly keeps investors updated . He cares about the company and its investors . Another compelling reason I have divested in Jog is that 50% of PANR shares are owned by Institutional investors".

The following is what PANR's chairmman said about it in his last chairman's report:

"The size and scale of Pantheon’s oil in place and potential resource are substantial, and we believe significant in

scale for any oil company. We are extremely fortunate to still have a 100% working interest in all of our projects,

allowing us plenty of flexibility to, on the right terms, consider farming out an interest in one or more of our

projects to fund future drilling. Our objective is to continue to prove these projects out to demonstrate to industry

that we have the data to support our assessments. If we achieve this in the recent years’ context of industry global

underinvestment in finding new significant oil resources, then we believe an industry hungry for new supply will

have great interest in Pantheon".

Note: "will have", James. Maybe in the future.

At best he's talking about "prospective resources". Yet you say PANR has "over a billion barrels of reserves". Utterly and completely wrong. No it doesn't.

You also fail to say (assuming you know) that all PANR's operations are focused on the Alaskan North Slope. In the event of PANR enjoying success with its exploratory drilling, have you considered the cost of getting the oil to the nearest refinery. It's not exactly awash with a London Underground style plethora of pipelines up there.

You forgot to mention the Can$55m of convertible bonds that provided less than half the money raised in FY2022 to cover the $50m+ PANR burned on drilling activities. Or doesn't this matter?

There's a chance the Company will enjoy success with the drill, but sentiment in the sector, particularly negative in the kind of area PANR is focused on, will be firmly against the Company. It's bad enough in places like the North Sea. O & G generally is on the ropes - and PANR hasn't really yet begun its journey, assuming there is one given the level of debt, the nature of that debt and the ongoing cash burn.

Re: "Our CEO needs to learn of Jay Cheatham", I've no doubt JOG's CEO knows of Jay Cheatham ( apt name - wonder if he knows Graham Swindells at DELT - Swindell & Cheatham plc - bound to be a winner). I assume you mean "learn FROM Cheatham". What, in your considered opinion, does he have to learn, James?

As for: "50% of PANR shares are owned by Institutional investors". Complete boll**ks. There wasn't a single one on the register as of 23 June.

Good effort apart fromm the above. Keep piling in

dyor

Yes Einbert - I believe it can be and indeed is.

Someone told me he's been on strike since January, looking for a 35% increase in remuneration because his package hasn't kept up with inflation since 2013. Apparently no-one has noticed.............

I'm only kidding. I quite like him, actually and believe he did a good job (in the end) steering TRAP into the hands of people who made a pretty good fist of at least giving TRAP holders a sniff of a chance of getting something out of the car crash TRAP had become by 2015. I think one would have to have a suspicious mind and understand things like "Board composition and the significance of a majority" to define his role now. Way above my pay grade - I'm just an 'umble book keeper.

Does anyone know if this chap is still around?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JOG/appointment-of-board-adviser-oooi8v5juljfryq.html

For those moaning about excessive directors' remuneration, check out p.23 and p.24 in the following:

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2018/03/2013-Annual-Report-and-Financial-Statements.pdf

Louis10 - reference "cash invested - £113m" quoted in the linked article you say is a "nice summary", JOG inherited virtually nothing in cash when it reversed into TRAP in August 2015. It had a complete change of management. which has launched 3 separate placings/offers/subscriptions between 2015 and now, raising about £40m in total. Management effectiveness therefore +60%.

TRAP first listed on AIM in 2011, planning to issue about 182m shares @ 43p, raising about £80m (today's equivalent of the 43p is £43, adjusting for the 1:100 consolidation when JOG arrived in 2015 - hence the fun about £43 getting TRAP holders their IPO money back). In the event, only about £60m was raised in the IPO. This didn't prevent TRAP's then directors going down the value destruction route and they quickly blew £30m by buying Reach Oil & Gas Limited for £30m (£20m in cash and £10m in new TRAP shares @ 43p). Loads of dry holes ensued. Athena and BC falling off a cliff in 2014 meant the end.

Back to where the £113m number came from in the research-free linked data you provide. The records show TRAP raised another £3m-£4m at various times, leading to there being something like 227m shares by the time JOG came along. If you add £60m, £10m and £3m to the £40m raised by JOG, you get to £113m.

I what's presented still a "nice summary" now you know the facts, Louis?

I held 2m TRAP shares that were worth £4.4k when TRAP somehow managed to avoid going into liquidation by handing the reins to AB & RL in 2015. I and some others owe the latter a big debt of gratitude. I won't say how many multiples of the 20k JOG shares my 2m TRAP shares got me in JOG that I now own, but it's a lot (to me at least). The key to investing as much as I did in the NKOTB was not only the obvious knowledge, experience and commitment (including that of family and friends) the new team exhibited in spades but, more importantly, the fact their own future financial prosperity was intrinsically linked to JOG's success. I don't believe this just included AB, or that much has changed as far as the key people are concerned.

We're getting close to the end game. The next two announcements are critical (assuming they're about the FPSO and another FO partner). Someone's apparently losing their nerve, judging by the small round number sells of 2k, 3k, 5k and 10k shares. Seems odd to me, but who's to say they're wrong? History shows there's no such thing as a safe investment - least of all in a sector like oil & gas, with a Government in a rainbow-coloured tank seemingly intent on blasting UK oil & gas out of the water, and the opposition (Labour) cheered on by the US, Saudi Arabia and other fossil-energy-producing nations, as it hoots at the tank to get out of the way, so it can finish off the Industry with nukes.

I'm backing JOG to get to FDP, then sell to a bigger outfit to fight the net zero war. A few cold winters are needed to make the "we're doomed" climate lemmings stf u

...........better ask Walter Mitty what he thinks, MPO...............

............a different sage - but imv well worth listening to. The video is about 43 mins long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_B10L9bV18

The points DD makes about university research grants are more than a bit concerning. Who is responsible for the brainwashing that's resulted in the vast majority of the population (not just of the UK) and particularly the younger age group thinking and acting as it does, is a moot point. I've heard it said that the seeds were planted in the mid 1990s by a number of US W Coast liberals, who stood to benefit from a "green revolution". Thereafter, the biased data that was presented in support of their ideas was spread far and wide. The rest, as they say, is (very recent) history. If what David Dilley and many other unbiased scientists and climatologists suggest is really the cause of recent global warming (using settled science as their backdrop, not biased opinions and unsupported projections) then more CO2 is going to be needed to sustain the earth's plant life, not less.

Following the herd is a natural tendency to many people. Lemmings come to mind.

dyor

...........daft post from a(im) loser on the other board: "Dont want to be a dampener on the proceedings but this is all stuff heard several cycles before. This share price simply refuses to defy gravity no matter how good the news is"...........

He clearly does want to be a dampener on proceedings but, regardless, his post demonstrates why he is very probably the loser he decribes himelf as. His post says a lot about the approach made by many to making money in the markets (I won't call it investing, because it isn't) a lot of whom, if you asked them, probably wouldn't be able to explain the significance is of a company's market capitalisation, or much else about anything that's relevant to the value of the company they're betting on (it's no better than that if price is all you look at)..

The Sage of Omaha (Warren Buffett) coined two expressions that are relevant here:

1. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get..........and

2. The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient

Like Malcy, Simon Thompson, Dan Slater, Brendan Long and others, whose assessment of JOG's position has been unchanged, as JOG has steadily moved towards the achievement of its ambitious goals, I believe (this will not be news to most on here) that we are on very close to having a good portion of the added shareholder value we have patiently waiting for, in some cases for years, delivered to us in the next few weeks.

The analysts above have had access to and have worked through all the data they deem necessary in setting fair value of between about £7-£10 per share.

What beats me is why they're always so negative..........

dyor

...........tax losses alone (£60m @ 40%) are worth £24m of the £59m JOG is valued at by the market.

Go figure.

Thanks for your response, Mommur. Can't say I disagree with your views, but both SQZ and HBR could do with some qualifying capex to reduce the EPL tax theft that's hit them so badly. It has already killed any meaningful future investment in the NS stone dead. Only those companies committed to the basin because of their existing producing interests are likely to invest in it in the near term, with the risk/reward metrics so badly skewed. There'll be no investment at all if Starmer and Reeves do what they say and withdraw investment allowances as well as charging a higher rate than even 75%.

We can only hope that JOG announces a second FO asap and then looks to sell on FID (or conceivably before). I don't favour the "Labour will back down" theory. It all depends on what seems most likely to please the masses

dyor

Link courtesy of 'surprised' on the SQZ board.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/we-ve-never-consumed-more-oil-in-history-than-we-have-today-eric-nuttall~2764707

Message to Greta and Just Stop oil: you owe it to us to organise protests in the town square in Riyadh (in front of the Crown Prince's City pad). He clearly doesn't get it...................

Meanwhile, Sushi, Stoma, Jim (Reeves) and the ginger Amazonian continue to progress their plans to finally bankrupt the nation.

I'm hoping for a positive update by the end of the month on the FPSO and also the crucial 2nd farm out, which should leave JOG with a fully carried 20-25% of the GBA licences. Re the latter, both SQZ and HBR look to me to be farm in candidates, as both have good FCF, funds available for investment, but very little capex planned in the near term to defend themselves with against EPL, which has decimated their recent results. A big chunk of qualifying investment on the UKCS could be made at an effective cost of 9p in the £.

jmofwiw

dyor

Not sure what you mean by your comments, Cyril. My post was prompted by MPO drawing our attention to the continuing failure of Sunak and whoever is advising him to grasp the economic basics in relation to what is so important to the UK's ability to function effectively - reliable energy at an affordable price. How will he learn a lesson if he isn't taught one?

What we're seeing is a stubborn refusal by Sushi and others to acknowledge the utter stupidity and disingeous nature of what he introduced in May 2022. He had previously given the very clear impression that a WFT on UKCS companies would be a case of "over my dead body". He then U-turned in favour of a short term cash boost to the Treasury (to its disastrous longer term cost) and (imv) to gain popularity among 16-30 year-olds - and also please a majority of daft Tory MPs who soak up all this "we're gonna die if we use ANY fossil fuels after next year" crap. Those alive next year are far more likely to die of things associated with energy (lack of it because it will be so expensive) than they ever would have if sense had prevailed and people had worked out this is just another means of making the masses more reliant on Government, because energy bills will increasingly be picked up by the State (in return for votes - as in "vote for us and we'll give you more"). They'll never be able to beat Labour.

Sushi called what he introduced a windfall tax, when it was anything but. The tax was to be charged on total profits, not just those arising as a result of higher oil & gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Hunt then added screws to the nailed-down UKCS coffin's lid by upping the rate 10% and extending the heist by 3 or 4 years, having consulted his oil & gas prices crystal ball.

I hope whatever these disingenuous, popularity-seeking clowns now propose ends in failure. Maybe after a while they'll cotton on - as will a general public that talks a big game about the utterly ridiculous notions put forward by the likes of most Conservative MPs, Greta Thunberg, Ed (the complete tw*t) Milliband and the BBC, before continuing to behave exactly as before in regard to: "wot, you mean we won't be able to get cheap flights to Costa del Vomit and we're supposed to use buses or cycle - f*** that for a game of soldiers". Can't really see why Sushi is courting the younger voters anyway. They ain't gonna vote for him as long as he has ears that make an elephant's tiny by comparison. He'll be hoofed out in the next election quicker than you can say "Hunt's a rhyming word".

Some sense at least from Jacob Rees-Mogg (courtesy of flexmw on the SQZ board). Sadly no-one listens to JRM in the (former) Conservative Party. He, the ERG group and about 100 other Tory MPs should join up with Reform UK. Might make things a bit more interesting come the next election late 2024/early 2025?

https://x.com/gbnews/status/1699504277226402290?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg

jmofwtw

dyor

Courtesy of a DT commentator:

"Wind currently providing 1.2%, yes, 1.2% of the UK electricity requirement - what a joke!

Coal powered electricity generation is in action this morning, providing 2.9% of the electricity needs.

We are discontinuing coal power in favour of wind power - what a smart move!

Check it out.

https://grid.iamkate.com/"

Good - serves him right

Re: "We can post Zeus and ST articles and rationale on why it's grossly undervalued until the cows come home but they never seem to make a bit of difference to the only thing that really matters, the SP".....................

....................if you'd put that the other way around it might have made sense, apcc.

Share price is about supply and demand. Period. Money is made in investing by investing (buying) when the fundamentals show the SP is too low. SP is a reflection of the value of a company, as perceived by "the market". The market appears to have usually had its finger on the "sell" button where JOG is concerned. I think this is largely because JOG has a crap share register, full of small holders looking to make a quick buck and pi55ing themselves if they see others selling (which then further drives down the SP). How do you think hedge funds and investment banks make the money they do out of shorting? They crash a company's share price by dumping shares they've borrowed (for a fee) from pension funds and internet brokers (which the beneficial owners haven't given their consent to) before then buying them back and returning the damaged goods to the lenders. They rely on the lack of understanding of small-time share traders, together with the nervousness of (so-called) widows and orphans to sell the shares they need to close their short positions.

Understanding how shares should be valued (ie what "fundamentals" means) is a prerequisite for any serious longer term investor. I can remember being depressed about my holding in JOG when, having subscribed to the original placing in August 2015 at 22p per share, the SP quickly started falling and hit a low of 8p in Feb 2016. Because JOG's fundamentals hadn't changed I'd bought more all the way down instead of following the herd. More purchases then followed and I've added at various times over the years when the fundamentals (as I see them) have been out of line and I've had the cash available to take advantage. Those were the days (having spare cash I mean).

Mine's only a tale of one investor in one stock. I took a big bath on Xcite Energy and learned a lot from that (mostly about my own lack of knowledge of the industry and some of the people in it and my failure to look at the situation objectively). There are no guarantees in this industry. Everything always takes longer than most expect,mainly because the technicals are more than just complex and the infrastructures vast. Costs are in billions - as, happily, returns can be. But one has to be patient. People seem to expect returns in days, weeks and months, when the industry currency is years and decades.

Keep the faith. Fundamentals will out. Private equity funds tend not to invest in duds. Politicians are our greatest danger.

dyor

The linked video and analyst's report dates back to 12 July, but nothing much has changed as far as I can tell. Maybe people don't get the fact that JOG has only 32.5m shares in issue and a market cap of £65m? This values JOG's 2C resources in Buchan, J2 and Verbier at less than $1pb, which is too low if one is confident a second farm out is on its way.

https://zeuscapital.co.uk/exclusives/4552020051/

The "don't knows" shall inherit the earth (where they should get on well with the meek).

Guess we'll just have to remain patient for a while longer.

It should be borne in mind that, except where it comes to farming out a slice of JOG's remaining 50% of the GBA licences, JOG no longer calls the tune. Operatorship was handed over to NEO when the latter farmed in a while back. I dare say JOG and NEO are singing from the same hymn sheet, as I can't see NEO not wanting to proceed to first oil asap, but that doesn't change the facts. NEO doesn't seem to crave publicity, so my guess is we'll only get news when it's necessary. The next two big events as I see things are i) formal confirmation of agreement to acquire a FPSO (WI) and ii) announcement of second farm out. Both are due well before year end, or the announced timetable will slip

jmo

dyor

"Happily that property and four others keep bread on my table at rents considerably higher than in AB's days"...........

..........gosh, you must have been clever to build up such an impressive property portfolio in the holiday isle............and a boat to boot.

Herron Premium Member

Posted in: JOG

Posts: 165

Price: 123.00

No Opinion

Buying signal ?????????????25 Aug 2021 14:40

Those two 5k "Unknowns" are my exit from this casino.

.......apologies - thought you got out at 150p but I now see it was 123p. My memory evidently isn't what it used to be.

No, I haven't been to Aberdeen recently (ever, in fact) but I know a man who has..........

Generated any wealth on your own this century?

..extract from CEO's report:

"Reported profit before tax was $112.9 million (2022: $182.6 million). Reported loss after tax was $21.2 million (2022: profit of $203.5 million) driven by the impact of the UK Energy Profits Levy"..........

..........when are the clowns in Govt going to realise they're killing the UKCS with their greed, stupidity and desperation for popularity with people who don't understand anything ?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/enquest--enq/half-year-results/7735283

dyor

You're delusional if you think Scotland is ever going to vote Conservative. Because Claire Nobody: "what would you like me to thinks and say Mr Sunak" identified as a Brexiteer?? A big majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU in the Referendum, regardless of the Party they voted for.

Last time I can recall reading anything you wrote, you were crowing about having sold out at 150p.

What happened?