Member Info for dickupham

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66669995

Anyone ever heard of her. Age 38. Of Indian descent. Former adviser to Sushi.

Classic characteristics of a weak leader - surround yourself with people who won't pose a threat. My guess is her beliefs and policies will swiftly align with those of Mr Bouncy Big Ears - if they don't already.

Hope I'm wrong and that she's from the sensible camp that understands what's going to happen (it's already happened in HBR's case) if politicians don't quickly come to their senses. She's only got 17 months max to make her mark. Grab it with both hands girl, or you'll just become another politician no-one remembers because they didn't do anything of note or long term consquence.

jmofwiw

dyor

I wasn't after praise - just a bit of spirited debate. There's solace in camaraderie and these are worrying times with politicians shooting from the hip at anything that's moving to raise money and win votes. Britain is a busted flush and I and others have too much invested in it, which becomes wearing on the soul - particularly when one's clock is ticking a lot faster than most.

PC01, you're spot on with your account of being taxed when you invest and taxed when you take your pension. You forgot to add that you're taxed throughout the time you money is invested because the Govt allows people like pension fund managersand internet brokers to lend your shares (without your authority) to investment banks, hedge funds and others for shorting purposes. The Govt cant tax your money when it's in a pensions wrapper, but it can and does tax the people who are involved in decimating your wealth with this dishonest practice.

There's a register of short positions (more than 0.5%) that's kept for transparency purposes (supposedly). Discloses the name of the party having sold short. I'd be a lot more interested in who has lent them the shares. Then we might be in possession of info that enables us to avoid placing our funds with these scumbags.

"The City" today is all about how much of the estimated £3trillion of people's savings that are placed with these hyenas. It long ceased to see its role as trading profitably with the rest of the world by being a centre of excellence in all things financial. The days of "my word is my bond" are gone forever. We live in dishonest times.

A lot of effort on my part to present information that might be pertinent to JOG's current situation in relation to the much needed second farm out. Information about a number of different valuation scenarios a well-respected broker has come up with that allows investors to judge whether or not JOG is fairly valued. Attempted humour to perhaps cheer a few people up in these times when incompetent and unprincipled politicians are stealing our money.................

................and all received with complete indifference - not a single response or even a recommendation except from DO, who most people don't seem to relate to, whereas I find his take on things both witty and intelligent.

Tells me only one thing. I'm wasting my time here.

Over and out

.......someone's optimistic:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2023/08/29/oil-is-going-to-300-a-barrel/?sh=24ab14402a2c

Don - re "Frankly I'm amazed neo see any point in remaining in the North sea"............you might be interested in the following, which is about NEO's owner's mission:

"As sector specialists, we invest across the spectrum of companies in this large industry, with a focus on companies that help drive the energy transition. In addition to stand-alone investments in renewable power generation, CCS, alternative fuels and other decarbonization activities, we use our long history and deep networks in the industry to partner with the traditional oil and gas companies to help accelerate their journey towards a low-carbon future.

HitecVision manages energy-focused private equity funds with a total committed capital base of EUR 8 billion. Our high-quality investor base consists of leading institutional investors from Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East – including public and private pension funds, foundations, sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and fund-of-funds.

HitecVision is a member of the Norwegian Venture Capital Association (NVCA) and is regulated as an Alternative Investment Fund Manager by Finanstilsynet – The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. HitecVision is a signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment and the The Net Zero Asset Managers initiative".

https://hitecvision.com/about-us/

Reference your comments to JS about HMRC, as is now mandatory in the public sector, HMRC was required to state its preferred pronouns on the top of all letterheads, emails, texts and the like. It (sorry, it, they, her, him, them, I'm buggered if I know, try sticking it up my nearest orifice and I'll ket you know etc etc) opted for a non-binary "H", with the second choice being I'm buggered if I know.

The point being it will answer to anything. It doesn't matter what you call it, they, her, him, them, I'm buggered if I know, try sticking it up my nearest orifice and I'll ket you know etc etc anyway, because they all work from home and don't bother to read anything to do with work.

Do I sense you work in the public sector? If so, can you give us an example of what "working from home" actually entails and perhaps give a steer as to how much fitter your dog has become since you started getting paid to walk it several times a day, all during the hours 9am to 5pm.

Thanks is advance

.......a recent broker's note valued JOG based on a number of different investment criteria:

1. Compared with producing North Sea peers currently trading on EV/EBITDA of around 1.5x,

and the wider UK sector on around 2.0x. Applying these sector multiples to various EBITDA

scenarios implies a JOG share price range of 366p to 1,033p

2. Compares with producing North Sea peers currently trading on P/FCF of around 3.0x, and the

wider UK sector on around 4.0x. Applying these sector multiples to various FCF scenarios

implies a JOG share price range of 185p to 1,024p

3. Compared to UK North Sea peers where established companies trade on an average of

around US$2/boe, and the wider sector on an average of around US$3.0/boe.

Putting JOG on these same sector multiples would imply a share price of 480p or 711p.

4. Looking at North Sea M&A deals since 2019, these have been done at an EV/2P+2C of around

US$7-8/boe. This is well ahead of where most UK North Sea stocks are trading, and also well

ahead of JOG’s current US$0.9/boe level.

5. Core NAV, which considers only JOG’s 12.5% of

Buchan that is fully carried under the NEO deal, plus corporate items, is 408p.

6. Total risked NAV (primary valuation measure), which then adds an additional 10% of Buchan post an

assumed second farm out, plus J2 and Verbier, is 702p.

It always seems to come back to somewhere around £7 per share.

Too cheap. I'm re-setting my sights above the Happy Eater level. Just as well, because the last one closed in the 1980s..........

dyor

The cash Hunt and Sushi think will arrive by 2018...........

........I meant 2028

Contd.........

The reality is that HBR is stuck with paying tax at 75% on the majority of its profits for the foreseeable future, UNLESS it were to acquire assets that qualified for offset against profits that are subject to the EPL. There is a short window available before Labour gets in for companies like HBR, which recently published HI 2023 results that showed it had paid down all debt and is significantly cash generative despite the EPL (it sets aside $200m pa for dividends and is currently spending another $200m this year on a share buyback programme. Looking at the profiles of some of the larger UKCS producers, SQZ is another company with significant profits (and healthy cash flows) that would benefit from the acquisition of assets qualifying for re-investment relief.

Looks positive to me from JOG’s perspective. Is there a better opportunity available for a cleverly structured farm out that provides bigger players with the opportunity to sidestep most of the 75% tax charge that they would otherwise suffer?

Just mulling over the possibilities. Wdik (except that I’m long and strong in JOG and a holder of SQZ & HBR)?

dyor

Surety – the imposition of the EPL hit HBR harder than most UKCS-focused companies in the sector. Over the last 3 to 5 years it has invested significantly in all kinds of capital assets with a view to the future, the benefits of which it would be enjoying from now on, were the vast majority of its profits not being stolen by a Government desperate for cash and openly seeking fashionable popularity with (particularly) the younger and less intelligent (an overwhelming majority) element of an electorate that spends a disturbing amount of its waking time with its face in a mobile device that does all its thinking for it, via the likes of X, TikTok, Instagram et al.

The cash Hunt and Sushi think will arrive by 2018 (£28bn of it) in the Treasury as a result of the heist won’t, because they fail to understand that NS oil & gas tax revenues will steadily dry up (never to return, because all trust in UK Govt will be lost) as UKCS exploration and development companies focus their efforts in other territories, where they’re allowed to keep a reasonable amount of the profits they make from what are very high risk activities. It’s called “risk vs return” and it’s beyond the ken of UK politicians to whom money to buy votes is all they’re interested in. There’s a word for them: “vermin”.

Anyway, HBR was particularly hard hit by the EPL because it came at the wrong time in its M&A and E&D cycle, with heavy capex completed in the years immediately leading up to the onset of the heinous 75% tax on UKCS profits. HBR and certain others (ENQ is one such) were unable to offset this capex against this so-called: “windfall tax”, which isn’t a windfall tax at all because ALL profits are subject to the theft, not just windfall ones. Don’t give me all this rubbish about the supposed “price floor” – in practice the rate of 75% (or worse) is here to stay.

Linda Cook made it abundantly clear from the outset what her and HBR’s opinion was of the UK Govt. HBR undoubtedly did cast aside any plans it might have had for any further development in British waters. HBR’s stark exposure to the UK tax thieves deserved the diatribe she gave to anyone who asked (and a few who didn’t). 2022 profits before tax of $2.5bn were entirely eaten up by tax, leaving shareholders to enjoy the $8m profit after tax. Not all the tax charge was ‘cash’ – from memory, something like $1.2m was payable in cash, the remainder of the charge caused by the need to increase the liability to deferred tax in the balance sheet by a factor of 35/40 (tax rate up from 40% to 75%).

Recently, Linda Cook has appeared to row back somewhat, most recently suggesting (according to what I have read – can’t find it now) that HBR might be willing to consider re-investment of profits in the UK if the UK Govt rethought its strategy to greater or lesser extent. ............

tbc

Bonker99 - apologies for my grumpy comment at 09.30hrs yesterday. I was having a bad morning and shouldn't have taken it out on you. Everyone's entitled to say whatever they want and I should have respected this. Again - my apologies.

Stop teasing us will you please, Surety? It's behind that pesky pay-wall again. Can you at least briefly summarise what it says?

Thanks in advance...............

"You're up early/late, Mr Upham!"..........

.........yes, DO. I couldn't sleep after a somewhat disturbing incident involving a nutter somehow gaining access to the premises on Tuesday. It took until last night to finally see the back of him - had to set the dogs on him in the end. The Police were useless.

A brief inventory check hasn't revealed anything major missing so far, although I nearly lost an expensive Orvis casual jacket and we do seem to be missing a bottle of Jura (Islands) malt whisky - maybe it will turn up somewhere; we having done an exhaustive check. I don't drink alcohol personally, although my wife occasionally enjoys a drop of the amber nectar if someone with taste is visiting.

You were up late yourself. I understand there are some new sausage and ice cream flavoured sleeping tablets available via the internet. Might it be worth giving them a try??

" hope you are keeping the old pecker up !! ;-)".............

................after 3 years of unpleasant injections in the stomach to rid my body of testosterone, following weeks of radiotherapy to kill the 4+5 (Gleason Scale) Prostate Ca I was diagnosed with in Sept 2020, "the old pecker" is anything but "up" these days, NewK.

Looking on the bright side, only the good die young, so longer term I should be OK.

:-)

Thar what blows?

Cretin

Re the MF article, the writer (Alan Oscroft) appears to be something in the nature of a simpleton. MF is exceeded in its (imo) uselessness and stupidity only by Simply Wall Street, where the laughably named (investment experts) are even more childish.

jmofwiw

NewK - you fundamentally underestimate the 3 "Ds" (deviousness, deceit and dishonesty) of politicians.

No way will the rhyming Hunt or Sushi abandon anything that gets them either money or votes. They know they won't get in next year so are shamelessly trying to curry favour with the 16-25 year olds (who'll never vote for the former Conservatives anyway because they're the 3 "Ts" (Timid, Transparent, T*wats).

*unt seems to think his and Sushi's 75% tax heist will raise £28bn from the UKCS upstream industry by 2028. This confirms his status under 3T above. The Treasury won't collect anywhere near this. And furthermore, by 2029 (whether it's the former Conservatives or Stoma's lot of socialist dead-heads who seem intent on destroying our country) tax revenues will have dried up completely, because the NS will be like a graveyard. It's not as if they don't have any clues as to what will happen - Gordon the **** Brown raised the tax on UKCS O&G companies to 60% in about 2008. Projects were cancelled and all exploration stopped almost immediately, so that by 2014/15 tax revenues had completely dried up.

We all know there's no justification for punitive taxes to be charged on upstream oil & gas cos' profits. It's tantamount to theft. I'd sooner the oilcos I'm invested in upped sticks and moved to Cameroon where Paul Biya (consistently featured in the list of the world's worst 10 dictators - nothing gets approved for exploration, development or production until he's taken his cut) reigns supreme. His (and his country's) cut is nowhere near 75% and at least he's consistent and relatively clever.

I hope *unt's and Sushi's wives give them a nasty infection somewhere in the vicinity of where their brains and what they talk out of are situate.

Good morning Einbert. Thank you for your sage (or should I say "Saga"?) views.

You certainly come across as someone who can tell the difference between Castrol and Shell. All those years on the forecourts I guess?

I think the price will probably go up or down from here. Or maybe stay the same.

I'm not expecting any major news until the summer (what summer - it's man-made global warming, see?) is well behind us. October would be my guess - and that might only be to say the chaps are back at their desks after a couple of months-worth of relaxation in the classy joints of Lloret de Mar..........

Best to sell if anyone's nervous. Don't want to be taking any risks, eh?

"Qualifying expenditure is broadly the type of expenditure on oil related activities that qualifies for investment allowances within the SC regime (see The Investment Allowance and Cluster Area Allowance (Investment Expenditure) Regulations 2017), but unlike the SC investment allowances, the expenditure does not have to relate to a defined oil field or Cluster Area. There is also no requirement for it to be “activated” with production income before it can be set against Levy profits.

Qualifying operating expenditure will be that which is incurred in relation to a facility or oil well and which enhances production rates, reserves, life of field, working life of a facility, or tariff income which can be earned by upstream infrastructure, but is not something representing routine repair and maintenance expenditure. The uplift is confined to facilities used in offshore oil and gas production. These rules should by now be reasonably familiar to upstream industry taxpayers given the experience with applying them within the SC regime.

Qualifying leasing expenditure also follows the definition used for the SC investment allowance. The past CT treatment of existing leases will impact the relief which is now available for Levy purposes and could give taxpayers with similar pre-tax profits very different Levy results.

Given the push by many upstream companies, both large and small, to invest in “alternative energy” projects, which is being actively encouraged, it is disappointing that investment allowance is not available in respect of such non-ring fence projects.

As noted above, certain expenditure is also specifically disqualified from the 80% uplift. Uplift is not available for expenditure on ‘second-hand’ assets (Cl 6 to the Bill). The rules here are very broadly drafted and deny the allowance on the acquisition of any asset where it would have been possible for an uplift to have been claimed by a previous owner of the asset, on the assumption that Levy was in place at the time that the owner incurred the relevant costs. The legislation includes as an example expenditure on the acquisition of a field interest, but would appear to apply to the acquisition of substantially all second-hand assets if previously held by a ring fence company, including exploration licences. As an example, expenditure on the acquisition of a vessel that had previously been used in connection with a UK field, even if many years previously, would not qualify for uplift whereas expenditure on the same type of vessel that had only previously been used in, say, the Norwegian sector would qualify"..........

........any thoughts on the above, Einbert (or anyone else)? Particularly the "2nd hand" exclusions?

It's not me that's lacking courage, CHF. It's all the wimps who emerge from nowhere selling miniscule numbers of shares for peanuts because they're nervous that are the problem. It happens all the time - people who haven't got a clue why they bought them in the first place - a number content to rely on the opinions of people who, for all they know, stand to benefit from their recommendations they make (or perhaps "targets" they set - how on earth can the ramblings of deluded punters' minds be converted into price targets?).

JOG has a truly dreadful share register, with no significant institutional investors to stabilise the SP and certainly no friendly "corporate" investors to mop up small parcels of shares sold by the nervy types I refer to. This allows the cheating MMs to do what they do, which is anything that makes them a buck no matter that their job is supposed to be to make a fair market in the shares they deal in.

I'll look in again when the price has fallen back to 175p and might even buy a few more if and when it gets into the 150s. Don't forget to sell on any news (whatever it is and whenever it comes). You know it makes sense.

dyor - then tyoac

Morning Einbert...........you ask: "Dick, me old cobber , are we on our way ( finally?) to £43 , via £34 ? Or is it ( a miserable (?) )£3.43?".

Why would anyone regard £3.43 as "miserable", Einbert, particularly if it was on the way to (say) £3.67 or even higher? Just for your information, I happened to be passing "The Happy Eater" in Buckfastleigh last week (it's just off the A38 and is called something different these days). I decided to call in to check out prices in the event of a £3.35 party being called for before my life pass expires. I explained to the manageress, a cheerful sort wearing a red patterned pinafore, that I'd originally been planning a £5 party (this was about 5 years ago) but, along with any number of other shareholders, had suffered a number of severe disappointments that had resulted in not only any prospect of a £5 party going right out of the window, but had also led quite a few, including myself, to the edge of the nearest available cliff. The manageress, a comely woman with a red patterned pinafore, instantly showed pity by offering their famous "all- day full English" .....with two extra hash browns and 4 slices of black pudding..... all for the sensational price of £6.99 pp - as long as there were 8 people or more people in our party. Just for good measure, she then added that, in view of the sad circumstances we had had to face over such a long period, she would throw in two slices of buttered toast and unlimited tea or coffee for an additional £1 per head.

I thanked her for her generous offer and said I'd get back to her if I'm still alive in about 2027.

Not all of the above is true but you get my gist...........I'm afraid to hope because I'm so fed up with disappointments. There's absolutely no reason why after the FPSO announcement, then the recruitment of a second poartner, then FDP approval, the SP shouldn't fly (to £7.50 and beyond). It's just that there always seems to be something that prevents it doing so...........

dyor