Member Info for dickupham

Stupidity surrounds us. It is everywhere one looks.

JOG's 20% will give it a profit before tax of £110m - every year until production starts to decline. The whole company is valued at 8 months earnings, when the earnings will go for on for years (more than 25). And that's without any new discoveries.

Another way of looking at it? Fully funded oil waiting to be lifted. What shall we say with Brent at $80? How about an ultra-conservative (sorry to use a swearword) $15pb using an estimate of 100mmboe in Buchan, J2 and Verbier?

JOG's share 20mmboe x $15 = $300m.........or £240m. Divided by 35m shares (fully diluted) = 685p a share.

Try another......how much have NEO and SQZ paid to get to the oil in the GBA licences? About £850-900m, plus about $70m in cash to JOG. Lets say £950m for 80% of the action. JOG gets to keep 20% of the action for doing nothing.......

I make that £190m - or c.550p. But they got a great deal because they held the purse strings. Ask them what they would sell at.

The stupid shall inherit the earth. They already have done. But I doubt they'll infest JOG for much longer. JOG needs some committed and knowledgeable new holders. The share register got a whole lot better today ("sell on the news everyone - listen to me - I got GCSEs in woodwork and being stupid).

Glad you're confident in JOG's future, Jim. Good luck with JOG and your other holdings. My only other significant holding is in Serica, which I've seen as a potential partner for some time. I picked up just under half a million shares in about 2016/17 at an average of 22p before the BKR deal . It's mall in your terms I know, but not in mine. I've sold quite a few at favourable prices latterly, to help with medical costs and improve our home, but still have a decent holding. I didn't like the Tailwind Energy (Mercuria deal - 27% of us voted against it), but Mitch Flegg appears to have come to his senses and this was a geat deal for SQZ - not that the dopes in the market understand why.

I see JOG and SQZ (which yields close to 10% on the dividends) as great medium term calls. The big unknown is why politicians are intent on destroying the NS when there's no commercial sense in it and it results in way higher carbon emissions.

Over and out for the time being. I'm fed up with repeating the blindingly obvious.

Spoke to AB earlier - he was chipper. Well done to him and the team. There's work to be done, but they're up for it - trust me on that one

dyor

"I think whether one is a trader or an investor depends on your personality. I just don't have the patience to hold on for years and years. I need a little action, to get the juices flowing. Someone like Dickupham has plenty of patience and so his style of investing is appropiate for him".............

...........is patience really one of my virtues, mc? You don't appear to know much much more me than you do about investing, in the real sense of the word. Why not read some of what Warren Buffett has opined on it? It won't hurt and you might end up a better investor. One of my favourites is: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" (even though I'm not that patient).

Your strategy appears to involve predicting the electrical and other activity going on in empty voids within the heads of people who aren't very clever. The scope for consistently making money based on this appears to me to be limited. Another way to describe the process might be "gambling". If you want to get the juices flowing and you lack patience, horse racing sounds perfect for you - check what the tipsters say, place your bet/s and it's all over in minutes (or hours if you have the patience to do a "Lucky 15" or a "Canadian").

I can't summarise in a few sentences (you probably don't think it matters anyway) how the fair value of shares might be established. It took me a long time to learn what I do know - and I'm still learning. There are many different ways to value shares in private companies (see below re listed cos). Different values can be applied to the same shares, depending on the % of equity held, dividend history etc. NPV using DCF projections is probably the best way to go about establishing fair value, but nothing can be set in stone because assumptions (involving predicting the future) invariably have to be made. When I gave evidence on the value of shares in private companies - I never said I was right; I just argued my case, based on the facts and the merits of the assumptions made. Experts weren't needed where shares in listed companies were involved - the price was the price. And it is here that the opportunity to make money presents itself. Invest in shares that are fundamentally undervalued and wait for the market to catch up. But only ever invest in companies where you trust management.

So-called: "swing traders" are unlikely to walk away with the big money in a company like JOG. JOG is news-driven and news always gets announced before the markets open. MMs read the news before traders do. Prices invariably open much higher after positive news at 7am

Ultimately, I believe the Industry will determine what JOG is worth. When funding is in place and the FDP is approved, if JOG's market cap is still a farce, a bigger fish will in probably look to buy it.

More news before too long, I hope. Wouldn't be surprised if it's more than a straightforwad FO, but that would do for now...........

dyor

CHF - I've enrolled you as a (provisional) member. Contact me off-board for further details - I've recruited 70 people this week alone. Full membership is awarded on presentation of a night's worth of individual pelting (10 or more scruffy beards with or without green and black headscarf attached).

Members are welcome to light camp fires outside, but I've opened up the East Wing to members. It offers comfortable accommodation and a roaring coal fire lit 24/7 (I'm a fan of carbon). Buckies and CrippleDick on tap.

Any other requests?

Don't hold your breath re the Autumn Statement. Increasing the minimum wage by more than a pound an hour will cost owners of small entrepreneurial businesses an extra £2k pa for workers at the lower end of the scale, where less value is delivered. A great deal of risk (financial, family and other) is taken by those with the courage and initiative to set the businesses up in the first place. Where's the growth in that move?

*unt should also increase the VAT threshold to a minimum of £200k pa. That would encourage small businesses to expand. Will we see it? Nah......

Oh - and how about zero-rating domestic energy and (at least temporarily) zero rate petrol and diesel to reduce (particularly) the cost of food? Nah............

.............now there's got to be something in it for the 7 or 8m people who have decided that work isn't for them............lets's see........how about paying for them to have a well-deserved holiday in Costa del Vomit?

It would only be fair.........

Britain is finished.......the pot is empty, there's no merit left in the ponzi called "gilts and government bonds".....but still they keep borrowing (or stealing from) ordinary decent people.

Ebola would be too good for them

I've heard rumours that Sushi and the rhyming Hunt think a tax rate of 4,200% of NS Oil companies' profits should be applied with immediate effect, just to ensure everyone in the land has a life that's a lot more difficult and uncomfortable as a result of having no effective means of heating their homes, travelling from place to place, going on holiday (unless they don't mind walking) etc etc. UK residents (I exclude the millions of illegal and other low value immigrants from this description) will come to regard the NHS as it is presently structured as a picture of efficiency when it is unable to use anything containing plastics in its everyday operations.

None of the above will of course apply to the millions of abject failures who are as fat as houses whilst screaming they can't afford to eat (they never stop) and the other countless millions who suck off the system because they're too lazy to work and have no skills to offer anyway will continue to have everything paid for because it's only fair.

The cowardly Hunt isn't even going to defend his seat in the next election, because he's scared of taking on the modern mantra of the "Portillo moment" when, as a Cons Cabinet member the latter got voted out of Bath (I think) in the 1997 election. He now wears silly trousers for a living. The rhyming Hunt has already been promised a seat in the House of Lords.

Where's Guy Fawkes when you need him, eh? Join my vigilante group. Training in the nearby woods. Live target practice (depending on recent weather conditions in the English Channel and capture numbers) on a Friday.

75p soon.

"although I HAVEN'T taken any cash payable to JOG into account)"

Contd:

That's if JOG finds someone else to agree to pay the other 37.5% ($375m) of the infrastructure spend (plus a lump of cash to JOG) in return for - say - 30% of the equity in the licences.

In the above scenario, JOG would be left with a working interest (WI) of - say - 20%, with no liability for CAPEX (this stands for "capital expenditure" btw) to commencement (this means: "start") of production,

.....err, let me think............NEO reckons their 50% is worth spending $625m on, plus $45m payable to JOG, to get to the oil in Buchan. JOG will hopefully end up owning 20% of the GBA licences on which it will have to spend nothing before oil revenues start flowing at the rate of about 45kbpd, of which JOG's share will be 9kbpd.

In a worst case scenario, if JOG doesn't find a second FO partner, JOG will be left with 12.5% of the licences, which will entitle it to 5.5-6kbpd. NEO will put up the remaining 37% for some more cash and an additional 37.5% of the licences.

NEO reckons its 50% is worth $670m.

The herd (ie the market) reckons JOG's worst case scenario of 12.5% (a quarter of NEO's equity in the licences) for nil CAPEX spend (calculated on exactly the same basis, although I have taken any cash payable to JOG into account) is

worth just over 10% of NEO's 50%.

It's worth a min of 25% and a likely 40%.

That market's hellishly clever. Brilliant opportunity to sell - the shares are only 140p less than they were before the farmout was announced. Mind you, we have now had the awful news about the FPSO. Can someone tell me what FPSO means please? Ditto FEED, FDP and FID. Also FDs

Don't forget to sell on the news (whatever it is)

My last post for a while - I can't stand any more stupidity

..........or should I say "doesn't think", because it is incapable of intelligent thought

The last time I saw a reference to the subject of money to enable the licences to become producing ones, was in a News Release made by JOG. I think the funds needed to provide the infrastructure needed to get to production in Buchan were estimated at about US$1bn. Clearly, at the time JOG didn't have even a fraction of that amount at its disposal so, as was already clear to those with half a brain, it was announced that JOG would be looking to "farm out" (or give away) a percentage of the equity in the GBA licences it had been awarded by the NSTA in July 2019, in return for the party "farming in" bearing an agreed percentage of the infrastructure costs to get to first oil, scheduled for late 2026. Milestone cash payments were also sought, to help JOG cover its outgoings until production began.

After an extended period of search for the right FO partner, it was announced last April that JOG had signed a FO agreement with NEO Energy, a 'top 5' North Sea producer owned by HitecVision, which manages energy-focused private equity funds with a total committed capital base of EUR 8 billion. HtV's investor base consists of leading institutional investors from Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East – including public and private pension funds, foundations, sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and fund-of-funds. HitecVision is a signatory of the "Principles for Responsible Investment" and the "The Net Zero Asset Managers initiative".

A better FO partner would have been impossible to find. And the terms of the FO agreement (sorry if I've lost you all - it's a bit long n'est pas? And trading time is at a premium. I can only apologise - it's all so irrelevant too)??

I'll tell you the terms regardless. I'm working on $1bn as the estimated cost of getting to production when the FO was signed off. NEO agreed to meet 62.5% of the infrastructure cost to get to production, in return for a 50% equity interest (sorry if I've lost you - more irrelevant verbiage) in the GBA licences. Plus, NEO agreed to give JOG $45m in milestone payments as various project targets were met.

JOG (I believe) will shortly announce the name of another FO partner to meet the remaining 37.5% of the infrastructure cost to get to production, probably in return for 25-30% of the equity in the GBA licences - plus further cash to help keep JOG's wheels turning. But JOG's worst-case scenario is that it can't find a second FO partner, in which case NEO will take on JOG's 37.5% liability for infrastructure spend, in return for handing NEO another 37.5% of the equity in the licences. Plus NEO will hand over more cash to JOG. JOG would then retain a 12.5% interest, fully carried. Too complicated I know

The question I ask is why would someone like NEO pay (as already agreed) $625m plus $45m to own 50% of the GBA licences when production starts?.

tbc

...and apologise too.......

FO 2 announced this week?

You're way out of line, Einbert. What you've posted requires reading and - dare I say it - some knowledge and understanding. You seem to be trying to stop nervy and uninformed types from selling, which could put their fish and chips next Friday at risk if the price drops by a penny.

Stop it please

Marineclark........has it never occurred to you to consider each investment you make based on its merits? Or doesn't that feature in your thinking?

There are quite a few AIM-listed companies that haven't gone bust. ASOS is a name that springs to mind, as does Serica Energy, among hundred, if not thousands of others.

It's long been my belief that , when investing in a company's shares, it helps to have a bit of understanding and intelligence . Old-fashioned I know, but then again I'm quite old. Can I therefore rely on you telling me when it's best to sell - presumably when the shares next go up a bit? Will 230p be a good price if it gets that high?

3 posts this morning, all devoted to the outpourings of a clueless moron, who doesn't understand the first thing about anything he opens his mouth about.

FFS use the filter

JOG has a truly dreadful share register. There are far too many people scrambling around in the gutter looking to make a few quid here and there every time, the shares move up or down a few pence. They're not interested in investment value that's staring them in the face (as if they would, judging by their spelling and grammar and the conclusions they reach in the void in which most would expect to have a brain) . They have absolutely no idea of what it takes to build a company, let alone one involved in one of the most complex sectors it's possible to imagine. Despite this, those who haven't had the good sense to apply the filter to spare themselves the worthless drivel, choose to expose themselves to the world of Walter Mitty and "how to build a successful oil company in the land of Noddy and Big Ears".

Surety, in response to your request that I spend an hour of so outlining why I regard JOG as a sound investment, I have made a number of posts in the recent past on this subject. Why not scroll back and read some of them? Whilst I might not have applied total consistency to the earnings multiples that might apply (due to market and personal sentiment at the time) the bottom line is that in the worst case situation JOG might find itself in when the FDP is submitted for approval (JOG keeps 12.5% of the GBI licences, plus a lump of cash, fully carried to first oil). According to my numbers, JOG with a 12.5%WI in the GBA licences is presently valued by the supremely unintelligent "market" at less than one year's net profit before tax. The whole theory of investing for longer term profit is in buying shares in companies the "market" values at less than they are fundamentally worth. The shares I bought at 8.79P in Feb 2016 (for instance) aren't doing me too badly. I am presently holding as many shares in JOG as I ever have done, which might say something about how I see JOG as an investment proposition at the current price.

I am positive about the imminent announcement of another FO partner (maybe two).

For about the 100th time, I have never forecast a SP for JOG of £43. I have pointed out on a number of occasions that JOG would have to reach £43 ps to get subscribers to Trap Oil's (TRAP's) IPO in 2011 @43p their money back. TRAP changed its name to to JOG when Andrew Benitz's and Ron Lentil's Jersey operation reversed into TRAP in 2015. There was a 1 for 100 share consolidation shortly after TRAP acquired the Jersey company (it was structured this way to preserve TRAP's tax losses and its listing).

The above reminds me that JOG has more than £50m of tax losses available for offset against profits (@40%) when production starts in late 2026. The market doesn't attribute any value to these either.

dyor

Level - not lever

..........you talked me into that one, Greener .............just bought a further 5k shs @ 219.6p.

Can't see this sticking at the present ridiculous lever. Never look a gift horse in the mouth.

I know................and I've been wrong plenty of times before. But I stand by my convictions and am always prepared for whatever might follow

GLAL

CHF - you missed the last bit of what I said in an earlier post:

"Benitz as good as told us this morning how the FO discussions are going when he said: "preparation of the Environmental Statement for the Buchan redevelopment is on-going and it is expected that this will be submitted to the regulator prior to the end of the year, along with the draft FDP."

How can the above be done if the parties haven't got funding in place?"

It's a "QED" situation, not an opinion

Hope it's all clear now..........

People selling today are gonna regret it...................

:-)

"PS well timed on your 10k DU"...........

20k (shs) Greener - @188p and 189p

Might add another 5k if there's no further immediate progress. Grist to the mill.

:-)

JFYI, this is what Malcy said in Sept in his blog, when JOG announced its interims:

"It has indeed been a ‘pivotal period’ in the history of JOG, right now these figures being wholly irrelevant as the farm-out of 50% of the GBA to NEO is the most important part of the current process. With the FPSO concept being selected the key is now closing on the acquisition of the vessel.

With the licence extension secured there are a number of key items in discussion ahead of FDP approval next year. These include further farm-downs of say 25-30% which is ongoing and the two existing partners are, as I understand it, working well together in all operational matters.

CEO Andrew Benitz is understandably in very good form, the NEO deal is proving to be very good with an excellent carry and the project is making good progress with what is turning out to be a great partner. I think it should be remembered that JOG is now in a very strong position indeed, as I have said right from the start and reinforced when the farm-out was completed the upside for JOG is by a multiple, not just a %age gain, the value here is huge".

dyor

Https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=race+for+people+with+no+sense+of+direction+monty+python&mid=DC15B2ED88399E463BCEDC15B2ED88399E463BCE&FORM=VIRE

CHF - the NSTA won't consider approving a FDP if the funds are not in place not only to get to production, but to meet all future licence commitments and - when production ends - leave the field in the same state it was in before any activity began.

Anything else?

"

"I note there was no date given as to the second part of the farm out"...............

...........give me strength..........

Https://www.dana-petroleum.com/what-we-do/united-kingdom/western-isles-fpso/

What a beast! Cost $2bn and only 7 years old. Magnificent.

If anyone ever doubted the 100% commitment of JOG to see Buchan through to production - or NEO's intention to get to first oil as soon as possible - today's news puts that straight to bed.

And JOG still valued at £70m? Utterly nonsensical.

dyor