Member Info for dickupham

I'd hardly say the shares they've bought render them: "up to their necks in personal exposure", Greener. But good on them anyway - it's a positive sign and they're at least making a decent pretence about their and our positions being aligned. They are - apart from the money. Two of the current Board haven't bought a single share with their own money. And I doubt Forbes (senior management team) has either.

Must be difficult for Smith (CFO) doing the rounds in the City telling fund managers what great value JOG is, when they ask him how many shares he's holding and how many he's paid for. "I bid you good afternoon, gents" would be my response to Smith's answer, whether or not they'd served afternoon tea.

It's just what it is. Don't have too many expectations about things like honour and integrity in the City today. JOG is a lot better than most AIM companies so let's be thankful for what we've got - key people who are decent sorts with a lot of skin in the game.

Ignore me - won't do you any harm

dyor

..........hear hear, Varnish

I'm annoyed every morning fwiw

NK - don't think you'll find what's likely to be good for shareholders high on anyone's list of priorities here.

How long until the 18 month lock-in ends?

.......in case people haven't spotted it on JOG's website (which they've polished up a bit):

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/01/20240129-JOG-Corporate-Presentation-vF.pdf

175p looks silly to me, even with the political risks involved. It's difficult to think Labour would pull the plug, given the GBA's green credentials and all the support provided by the NSTA. Labour is stupid, but surely not THAT stupid

jmofwiw

dyor

NEO FO deal:

"Transaction Summary

In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 50% working interest and operatorship in the GBA licences to NEO, the Company will receive:

§ 12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio

§ Carry for JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval".

SQZ FO deal

"In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 30% working interest in the GBA licences, the Company is set to receive from Serica:

§ 7.5% carry of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval

§ 7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio"

Terms look identical to me (pro rata)

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/jersey_oil_and_gas/news/rns/story/rmkmzvw

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/jersey_oil_and_gas/news/rns/story/rgnnj0w

A share premium account is a reserve that can't be distributed.

JOG might apply to the Court for a balance sheet reconstruction, but for what purpose and why would approval be given, when creditors would be left in a worse position? No competent director in a company like JOG, which has a limited amount of cash that could conceivably be needed to see it through until income starts to flow in from production about 3 or 4 years hence, would use that valuable resource on buying back shares. What would be achieved by a share buyback programme anyway? I know the theory well enough, but I have also seen the usual outcome over many years of investing. It's popular with directors because a company's capital base is reduced and directors have no hesitation in claiming their skills have led to their company achieving an increased rate of return on capital employed. Bigger bonuses then follow. Very rarely does it result in an increased SP. Regardless, it isn't the responsibility of directors to take action designed principally to support a company's share price. Establishment of any company's share price is a function of the markets, warts and all. Fundamentals generally play out in the end, regardless of short term price movements caused by actions of shareholders that temporarily disturb the supply/demand balance. Holders and aspiring holders of JOG's shares might be better off considering the value offered by a SP that values what, post FDP approval, will become JOG's 2P reserves at less than $2pb, than being panicked into selling in case the SP moves into minus territory. As Einbert eloquently pointed out earlier, there are a myriad of reasons certain holders might be selling shares. Some sellers might simply see better opportunities elsewhere. Who knows - or indeed cares? The fundamentals haven't changed as far as I am aware. Labour hasn't threatened anything worse. Sunakhunt no longer matters.

Conclusion? Even if it was possible, it would make no sense for JOG to waste valuable cash resources on share buybacks (presumably in your view to buy undervalued shares in the market then cancel them, thereby increasing NAV per remaining share). Better in my view to retain cash and sell it £ for £ and add it to whatever is paid by whichever company in the industry buys JOG later this year (post FDP approval) for somewhere between $5 and $8pb. "Hope" in my view is a perfectly acceptable investment strategy. And it doesn't cost anything or make one ill

The subject (share buybacks) is closed afaic.

GLAL

dyor

Re: "Company should be buying in loose shares to stop a low ball bidder building a stake"............

.........JOG doesn't have distributable reserves so can't engage in share buybacks

Brent $80+

616p risked value p/share

Your reasons are all valid afaic, Greener. I just think the risk of Labour deciding 80% is a better rate of tax and that re-investment relief should be scrapped - or worse still that for some reason FDP approval is delayed - are real risks. There is no limit or logic to anything these dangerous clowns will do or say. Lying comes naturally to them . Votes are all that count.

Robsroom - you advocate patience, but the real issue to me is getting to the stage we know the development will go ahead - and approval for this, based on what Kweir Stoma has said to date, has to be gained before Labour gets voted in by the electoral turkeys. What a choice to have: the present lot of clowns, or the dangerous incompetents waiting in the wings. I won't be voting for either.

Get the FDP approved, then sell. It's the only course that makes any sense.

Thanks, alsoppc. Earlier than I was expecting.

I have a feeling they'll put on an up to date presentation as in "the state of the nation". Hope so anyway.

.............My guess is that if the daft voting masses thought for a minute about the 6,000 or so everyday products and services that are reliant on oil for their availability............they'd soon lose their enthusiasm for net zero

What approx NPV would you attribute to JOG, Greener?

I see the biggest detractor from JOG's NAV (as opposed to NPV) is the uncertainty of future income as a result of ill-thought out and illogical decisions made by politicians, which are not only harmful to North Sea upstream oil & gas companies (and their shareholders), but damaging to Britain's energy security.

There is no doubt in my mind that what is going on at a political level is virtue-signalling of the worst kind, designed to gain popularity and at the same time raise short term cash (which is all it will be because there's been an immediate exit by countless producers, which will result in permanently less tax raised in the future). My guess is that if the daft voting masses thought for a minute about the 6,000 or so everyday products and services that are reliant on oil for their availability (eg everything that includes plastic and derivatives, affordable airline travel to popular foreign destinations, any number of products used in the construction industry, inc paint, non-electric cars - which need oil in their manufacture and functioning capability, clothing and footwear - look around you). Choice will be denied us in many cases and in others the cost of production - if alternatives to oil have to be found - will make the goods much more expensive.

I dislike being told what I can and can't buy (I live in the country and currently have an oil boiler as there is no accessible gas supply - were it to permanently pack up it would be extremely expensive to heat my home) when choice should be up to me.

The stupid thing is that oil in commercially viable volumes will be finished in 50 years and oil in about 100 years. Is the (arrogantly presumed) increase in global temperatures going to result in the end of life as we know it on planet that's so far existed for 4.75bn years, in human and animal times in temperatures a good deal higher and a good deal lower that they'll be as a result of burning fossil fuels. Why not stop countries chopping down and burning areas of forests the size of some whole countries every year. Anyone remember photosynthesis from early school days?

Bloody politicians - anything to win cheap votes, no matter the eventual consequences and cost. It isn't just the net zero c.rap

dyor

dyor

Alsoppc - re Serica deal expected to complete Jan '24.................the guidance I've seen is for completion of the SQZ FO in Q1.

Can you quote your reference?

Generally (re JOG's future, the only realistic option I see is a sale of the Company when the FDP is approved. And preferably when the FID is taken.

Any thoughts anyone?

Apparently Cavendish (brokers/analysts) have put out a note today about the submission of the EIA (a few hundred pages of it). Having made a few enquiries about what happens following submission, a 28 day consultation period now begins, so JOG's silence on the subject is understandable. Not sure what happens thereafter - I guess it gets consolidated in the FDP, which is due in Q3.

dyor

Extract:

"A 6 inch gas export pipeline made of carbon steel that will either tie-in to the SAGE pipeline system at

the Ettrick manifold (c. 41.77 km pipeline) or tie-in to the FUKA pipeline system at the Tweedsmuir

manifold (c.19.31 km pipeline). Regardless of tie-in location the main length of the gas export flowline

will be trenched and buried. If selected the tie-in to the SAGE pipeline system would require installation

of a piled and fishing friendly Pipeline End Manifold (PLEM), a new PLEM would not be required for

tie-in to the FUKA pipeline system"

Good find, RQ and thanks for posting the link.

I note: "issued for use" 16 January 2024. Wasn't the submission (and approval) as part of the FDP flagged by AB as one of the "milestone events" that was going to lock in added shareholder value? It might have been an idea to tell people that this extremely detailed and complex assessment (the EIA) is now with the NSTA - and presumably it's now full speed ahead with the FDP. Or is that expecting too much?

There appears, however, to have been no inclination to put any sort of information in the public domain (eg: "both NEO and JOG personnel have been working flat out since November to finalise the EIA with a view to its submission to the NSTA on the earliest practical date. The JV partners are now exclusively focused on delivering the a compelling FDP to the NSTA at the earliest opportunity").

CHF -first oil from Buchan has been estimated as Q4 2026 for the last 2 years at least. Other factors (more sellers than buyers have been evident since the start of the year, with some sellers perhaps lacking assurance that plans to prepare and submit the EIA/FDP were on or ahead of schedule, given concerns about Labour taking office and either banning new developments, or taxing UKCS upstream companies to oblivion?).

dyor

.........." by which time he and the other cuckoos who infested the nest of the former Conservative Party when Truss and Kwarteng were mortally wounded by "the establishment", which had scored earlier with the hapless BJ"............. will have long gone".

I doubt any future administration will dare reduce UKCS tax rates - Labour will probably impose increases. They're that stupid. Wokery and virtue signalling win every time in modern times..................

Crikey - it's only a fortnight since I last posted and I'm pushing up daisies. God help me if I should ever decide to head for warmer climes for a month or two. By way of general update (for those who might be interested) the medical can continues to be kicked along the road but I'm not counting any chickens. Nor do I feel like doing anything most of the time for various reasons I won't bore you with. This includes pointlessly posting on blog sites..

There isn't much to say about JOG except that, were it not for Sunak (and later, Hunt), its share price would probably be 2 or 3 times higher than it is and Andrew Benitz would be a hero. I hope Sushi's wife gives him a STD. Ditto the rhyming Hunt.

Labour's position on windfall taxes at the start of 2022 was that they would impose a windfall tax of 10% on UKCS producers, for as long as these companies continued to benefit from increased oil & gas prices. There's quite a lot written about it on the internet. What Sunakhunt has imposed IS NOT A WINDFALL TAX (I wish people would stop referring to it as such). It is a heist on UKCS upstream companies' profits because the tax is charged on ALL these companies' profits, not just the windfall element. And if the EPL is a windfall tax, how is it possible to predict when the windfall profits will end? The rhyming Hunt's crystal ball allows him to say "March 2028", by which time he and the other cuckoos who infested the nest of the former Conservative Party when Truss and Kwarteng were mortally wounded by "the establishment", which had scored earlier with the hapless BJ. They all probably deserved punishment for aspects of their behaviour, but would have been 100% better for the UK than the spineless, popularity-seeking clowns who replaced them. I have news for Hunt - oil and gas prices returned to something close to normal within a few months of him introducing the EPL.

Just sayin' ........

I don't own 2.9% of JOG btw, although I do have a holding that's material to me. I benefitted by buying a lot of my shares in the first 6 months or so after AB and RL took the reins in 2015. I also added significantly when the Welsh investor (Griffiths) was unloading without notification, causing a share overhang that lasted months. I am hopeful of a good outcome for JOG, but not as confident as I was at one time. The sole reason for my loss of confidence is political interference. The actions of the Conservatives (and proposals in the case of Labour) defy logic and have already caused untold damage to Britain's O&G industry. They will not be forgiven this time around - that courtesy was afforded Brown and Osborne, but once bitten.

And all to pay the bills of Britain's feckless and lazy in a pointless quest for popularity and votes they won't get.

I'd make one observation. JOG should smarten up its PR and put out some projected numbers to make the investment case. Wake up plse.

GLAL

dyo

......just testing, but do you mean the G*Ayo well spud......?

Re Western Isles:

"Agreements have been executed to acquire the 76.9188% interest in the vessel not currently owned by NEO. The main terms of the acquisition commit the Buchan field partners to acquire the vessel upon the approval of the Buchan FDP. Prior to this milestone being achieved, the Buchan partners are responsible for the costs of storing the vessel from the date of handover, which is anticipated to be in the second half of 2024. The FPSO acquisition and associated costs forms part of the previously announced farm-out carry arrangements agreed between NEO and JOG".........

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JOG/fpso-acquisition-6o2r28fvm4wj4hm.html

*******************************************************************************************

The terms of the SQZ FO are in the RNS:

"In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 30% working interest in the GBA licences, the Company is set to receive from Serica:

§ 7.5% carry of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval

§ 7.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs, up to the budget included in the approved FDP; equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio

§ $6.8 million cash payment on completion, which includes a $5.6 million payment associated with the finalisation of the GBA development solution and associated acquisition of the "Western Isles" FPSO

§ $7.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the NSTA

§ $3 million cash payments on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries.

The primary condition precedent to completing the Serica Farm-out is receipt of approval from the NSTA for the transaction".

JOG has a carried interest of 20% in the GBA licences. This interest is funded 12.5% by NEO and 7.5% by SQZ. Assuming the costs of getting to production end up being £900m, in simple terms NEO has committed to pay (£900m x 0.125) = £112.5m that would otherwise have fallen to JOG to pay to get to production and SQZ has committed to pay (£900 x 0.075) = £67.5m. JOG's two new partners evidently considered it worthwhile to incur £900m of expenditure to gain 80% ownership of the GBA licences, leaving JOG carried on the other 20%. In addition JOG's new partners agreed to pay JOG in excess of £30m on reaching certain pre-defined milestones.

The bottom line? If you think it's more likely that two of the UKCS's top ten producers, committing close to £1bn of real money, are closer to fair value for JOG's 20% of the GBA licences than a group of retail investors and small-time traders, then JOG is worth £210m (roughly £6 a share) not the £68m (208p a share) it's currently trading at.

**********************************************************************************************************

Ref the 70mboe in Buchan, it's a conservative estimate. J2 and Verbier hold another 45mboe of discovered oil

dyor