Member Info for dickupham

I was a partner in one of the big accounting firms - did a lot of business valuation work in all kinds of settings

Thank you, CHF. Your comments are appreciated. I only outline things as I see them, but I do have a lot of experience by virtue of my career background and the fact I've been interested in the sector for a long time. Doesn't mean I'm right in what I say - along with everyone else's, whatever I write is just my opinion.

I expect JOG's SP to firm up as various unresolved matters are put to bed in a series of positive announcements. We probably won't have to wait too long before the information flow starts. We shall see.

Sorry we got off on the wrong foot - I can now tell you're a decent sort who has a good appreciation of JOG's overall situation. Patience is still the order of the day - one day soon, hopefully, our wait will be over. Not sure about a £5 party, but a 450p one at the (former) Happy Eater, just off the A38 in Buckfasteigh, seems justified to me. They do a mean "full English with tea and toast" for half a crown...........................

GL

Https://hitecvision.com/about-us/

https://www.neweuropeanoffshore.com/

Good Wednesday lunchtime to you, Abatt. My brain (which is housed in a different part of the body to most people's - just above my legs at the back) doesn't allow me any sense of latitude when reading posts that don't make sense. What is JOG supposed to have done wrong that's led to the recent SP decline? Let me answer that question: nothing, really.

The selling has been in small volumes only, but it's given the MMs the chance to set excessive spreads, because sentiment in the sector stinks. It will do until politicians come to their senses. So there are very few buyers.

The market (to the extent such a thing exists and is relevant here) is probably waiting for information that JOG won't be able to give it until the FDP is ready for submission. Until then, we (and the market) are left guessing about the extent of GBA's potential reserves. Until the FO was announced we were working on 170mmboe. Yet the FO deal was struck at 100mmboe. I can understand why there's this discepancy - it's called 'negotiation'. Some further clarification would be helpful. We also don't know how much it's going to cost to get this project to first oil. Whilst this probably won't affect JOG too much because it's aiming to be fully carried on Capex through to first (second actually) oil, it's still important. Then there's a lack of clarity (to my mind at least) as to what the final agreed design concept will be. AB has recently referred to "going green" - hooking up to some big maritime wind turbine project that will keep the greens happy. Not certain what happened to elctricity from shore.

JOG will very probably get there. It's done remarkably well to have got this far and kept as much of the action as it has, given the limited cash at its disposal throughout and the small number of people involved. My take on a second JV partner is Q4. See below.

NEO is exactly the right partner to have in the circumstances that exist here. They're smart operators. Very smart. Owned by an $8bn PE fund (HitecVision) who describe themselves as "serial entrepreneurs". They're focused on one thing. Money - and the more of it and the sooner the better.

The two (presently 50/50) parties will already be working on plans to get to production in the most efficient, greenest and least costly way. When their plans are finalised, the door will be opened to a third partner. But the terms offered to that party won't be the same as those offered to NEO. They'll be a lot better (from JOG's perspective). Why give a new entrant the benefits of innovative work that reduces cost that was carried out before they arrived? This strengthens JOG's chances of only having to give away a further (say) 25% to secure a full carry on the entire capex cost to get to production.

I'll be lucky still to be around when it all comes to fruition, but I'll be giving it my best. It's the eventual outcome that's important to me now (subject to taking a few shares off the table for a bit of fun).

dyor

You seem to be very confused, desale. Raising funds (which there isn't any conceivable need for at any stage in JOG's future) is about how much cash a company has and how much it is likely to need in order to achieve its objectives. Not about its SP. Were JOG just to be concentrating on maintaining its existing status and not (as it is doing) investing time and a limited amount of money in delivering shareholders the value a number of respected analysts already believe it has, because they presently value JOG's shares at somewhere between £7 and £10, the £6.6m would be enough to sustain it for at least 2 years.

But the above is irrelevant, as you would know if you took the time and had the intellectual capacity to read and understand what was explained in a statement issued when JOG announced its annual results on 24 May. I quote:

"With the route to monetisation of the GBA resources established, the Company has the opportunity to deliver long term shareholder value through unlocking the multiple value catalysts that stem from execution of the GBA development programme...........

§ It is anticipated that the farm-out will be completed around the end of the second quarter of 2023..........

§ The Company is well positioned with a cash balance at the end of 2022 of approximately £6.6 million, which is set to be enhanced by the various milestone payments incorporated into the farm-out transaction terms agreed with NEO........."

The various milestone payments were descibed in a RNS on 6 April as follows:

"In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 50% working interest and operatorship in the GBA licences to NEO, the Company will receive:

§ 12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio

§ Carry for JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval

§ $2 million cash payment on completion of the transaction

§ $9.4 million cash payment upon finalisation of the GBA development solution

§ $12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the NSTA

§ $5 million cash payment on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries"

I'm not sure what there is to say about a claim that raising funds is in some way related to JOG's SP, other than that anyone who believes this would seem highly unlikely to be suited to investing.

I'll post a bit more information later that shows how daft JOG's SP decline has become. We all know that sentiment in the sector is shot to pieces thanks to both deceitful and incompetent Conservative and disingenuous and seriously deranged Labour politicians, but this is something else. It's madness.

And I'm not frightened btw, desale. You seem a tad naive - are you sure you're suited to this game?

dyor

Re:" We are nearly at fund raising levels (160 is memory serves), a shocking performance with a farm-in partner".........

...........any chance of you explaining what you mean by the above, desale?

Should I sell my holding? Your post is very frightening.

Thanks in advance

warmest regards

Dick

UBS won't have (or have had) a stake in JOG. I thought the consensus was that the beneficial owner is or was a UBS HNW client.

Reminder: HitecVision/NEO Energy appear to believe their 50% of the GBA Licences is worth around £150m. I believe they know and understand oil & gas and the risks involved. The market believes JOG's 50% of the GBA Licences is worth £60m.

dyor

Video of the narrative in the middle link in my last post.............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc8p7lsGy4Y

Three interesting links for those with the time and inclination to consider the views of some of those who understand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UEx_XqT3rE

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/its-not-dark-yet-but-its-getting-there/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-Iu1i317E

The lunatics have taken charge of the asylum............

Sorry - don't share others' enthusiasm about this morning's news. Why are UK oil & gas cos still being charged 75% on ALL their profits (not just the so-called 'Windfall' ones)?

Adjustment should have been made for inflation, $/£ exhange rates, BC falling off a cliff for a few years when SA and the other OPEC countries 'turned up the taps" to drop the oil price and squeeze US frackers out of the picture and Covid, which knocked the stuffing out of BC and WTI for 2 years or more. None of the above was considered.

The twiddling with numbers won't have any effect before Labour gets in. JOG is still well placed though as it isn't paying tax and must be one of the best targets for Farm in or outright acquisition. UKCS operators wanting to avoid the 75% and more on top would have to see JOG as attractive. If JOG gets fully carried, two JV partners will be picking up the cost of infrastructure at an effective 9p in the £ - if they get everything paid for before Labour gets in. That's unless Labour decides to tax companies retospectively. Almost unheard of except in banana republics..............hang on a minute...........

I've written to Hunt pointing out that upstream operators ony get to sell their production on the ICE exchange at BC prices determined by supply and demand. Their windfall gains only lasted about 4 months. Sunakhunt is flogging the wrong horse - the ones who scored bigtime out of carbon energy price increases (and continue to do so) are the downstream operators (some being oil majors with big petrol forecourt presences + supermarket chains - all taking much bigger margins on sales of petrol and diesel by charging excessive prices per litre) and carbon energy supply companies (gas and electric) which are charging retail customers (virtually everyone) astronomic prices for carbon energy. Where's the justification?

Sunakhunt is killing upstream operators by taxing them to oblivion, so that he/it/they can raise the money to give to end users of carbon energy (gas and electric compnaies' retail customers) so that they can pay excessive bills sent out by the likes of Centrica, EDF, SSE etc.

Sunak called Caroline Lucas (Green Party) "economically illiterate" in PMQs recently. Physician heal thyself. And Hunt too.

imo

dyor

Re: "The muted initial response – an 8 per cent fall, although the shares had almost doubled in the past week – is a repeat buying opportunity. Buy"............

...........isn't this the article ST wrote when the NEO FO was announced on 6 April?

DTP and others - re potential acquisitions, my view is that SQZ's future direction will be chosen by Mercuria (with its 28% effective control) not by Mitch Flegg or anyone else. He'll be lucky still to have a job in 12 months' time, or whenever the 18 months lock-out period ends and Mercuria decides whether or not to take SQZ private.

Maybe Mitch will be seen by Sunakhunt or Starmer as a natural shoe into mainstream politics? He's made as good a fist as either at destroying shareholder value in Serica...........

dyor

Sorry - forgot the 8 year olds.............

You remainers are a hoot

Missed a bit..........

"Problem is it would have involved courage and been howled down by all the lefties in the Commons, the House of Lords and media in all its forms".

I have the same opinion of Boris as you, FJ. He just has a habit of winning elections, whether it be for Mayor of London or PM. His weaknesses should have been addressed in advance, but weren't. He needed people behind him, putting in place all the reforms he talked of. Where Brexit was concerned, one part of the country (London and the home counties, which held the purse strings, so to speak) refused point blank to even consider cutting ties that needed to be cut if the benefits of what the country as a whole voted for were to be achieved. Civil Servants were materially responsible for making sure nothing got done. That Boris is devoid of principles is a given - he's a politician FFS.

Boris gets (or got) a lot more attention than anyone else and was a natural target in loads of ways to discredit, thus undermining the Conservatives. The media was out to get him and succeeded in lots of petty ways that made me ashamed to be British. When he'd gone they moved on to their next target, who I think was Truss - or was it Suella - then Raab. The left wing Civil Service saw to it that Raab became history - the greater part of the 535,000 of the bone idle, commie-leaning, hypocritcal toadies, all acting in unison from their offices overlooking their back gardens in Buchinghamshire. They were unbeatable. They want Labour in and they'll get their wish. It's only a matter of time before we go cap in hand to the unelected fraudsters in Brussels and beg to be let back in. I'll be dead by the time it happens, but I fear for my kids and grandkids as they'll be paying for it all, unless they do the sensible thing and move to a country that's not run in quite such devious and dishonest ways.

We're witnessing the death of democracy and no-one is doing anything serious about it (except, perhaps Reform, Talk TV (Sky ch522) and GBNews (Sky Ch 512). It's been happening ever since Boris vowed to "get Brexit done". He might have got it done, but at what cost? He should never have agreed a deal that left us tied to Brussels in so many ways. I'd have supported a "no deal" exit. Tell the EU to go do one and refuse to entertain tariffs from this side of the channel. Problem is it would have involved courage and been howled down by The EU had as much to lose as the UK - possibly more, given so many smaller EU coutries' reliance on the UK as a trading partner. As for the NI deal, none was ever going to be possible witout overturning the GF agreement - which naturally the EU has mercilessly used as a stick to beat us with and continues to prevent the people of NI from achieving any form of consensus government.

Back on topic, I see today's small rise in JOG's SP on what imo was important news was fully sold into before it had had a chance to get off the ground. Plus ca change. JOG has a c.rap share register - full of two bit holders biting their fingernails in case they lose a hundred quid

jmofwiw

dyor

............chance not change. I've sacked the typist

PS I've recently joined this: https://www.reformparty.uk/

If they could get some fire in the belly, sign up about 150 current conservative MPs/candidates (proper ones) who'll probably lose their seats or otherwise not get elected next year - including the whole of the ERG - then reach agreement on who's going to be leader and commit to giving him/her their full support atnding on a centre (or slightly right thereof) platform, I reckon there'd be an outside change of "doing a Zelenski". Ukrainians in 2019 were so fed up with crooked politicians that they voted in Zelensky's "Party of the People", run by Zelenski, who had no previous history in politics. Zelensky's new Party won 73% of the votes cast.

Go for it, Trice/Farrage/Boris/Jacob - whoever - just make a decision and stick with it. No-one could be worse than Sunak or Stoma............

dyor

The expression "you couldn't make it up" comes to mind, FJ. Politicians have progressively wrecked this country, particularly since Blair got in in 1997. Scotland has suffered along with the other home nations. "Values" are what have been abandoned - sacrificed in favour of popularity with the masses.

You could do worse than emigrate to rural Devon, where it's possible to switch everything off from time to time and pretend none of it is happening. The long sea views and no near neighbours make the task a bit easier. Sounds from your recent posts as if there's no way for you to avoid the mayhem.

What would you call 650 politicians loaded onto a boat, towed 6 miles out to sea and then scuttled?

..........a good start

imo

dyor

Frazerjohn - as Lord Frost stated recently in an address to a lot of sensible people: "you can wake up a man who's asleep; but you can't wake up a man who's pretending to be asleep".

The big point that all the interviewers keep missing when they're arguing with the Labour cretins is that, by their very nature, all existing producing fields are declining daily as the oil and gas is extracted. The way Labour is presenting its plans, these fields will "be allowed" to keep producing until 2050, or whenever there's enough new green energy to replace them.

The reality is that, with Labour planning a tax hike to 78% and restrictions on what they call "loopholes" (ie capital allowances), all existing NS fields would become uneconomic much earlier than they would otherwise be if taxed fairly. This of course would lead to the loss of '000s of high-skill jobs (either direct or indirect). Furthermore, given the hostile stance it is clear Labour would take (it is unashamedly taking it already) skilled NS oil workers would be insane not to move to other countries, which better appreciate and reward their skills, to earn a living.

The Conservatives are missing a giant opportunity to put clear daylight between themselves and Labour, by clearly articulating to the country how they are going to put the British public's interests before those of a lot of climate-change alarmists who are talking out of their ar5e. But they won't do it because there's no longer any difference between the parties who compete with each other only in regard to which of them will give the most out of the Treasury to Britain's (supposedly) poorest people. Perhaps it's time for a new logo to appear in giant sized letters in arrival halls at every British airport; and at all port entry points: "2023 BRITAIN - CHAMPIONING FAILURE".

Two items ticked off the list today. Formal FO sign-off before the month's end.

Some food for thought. NEO Energy, which is owned by the ultra-smart Hitecvision which puts returns to its investors above all else, seems to think it's worth paying JOG (assuming a development cost of £1bn - it will possibly end up less) £125m (via a 12.5% carry) plus about £25m in various milestone payments along the way to acquire 50% of the Buchan and Verbier licences. So, on the face of it, NEO/Hitec values its 50% at £150m.

JOG owns the other 50%, which the market says is worth £60m.

As someone once said: "go figure"

dyor

........"It's UNjustified"............