Member Info for Confounded

Thanks Transformerman, you eloquently put down what I was musing when I saw the Hunts Post article. It can only help making Burwell an important green hub.

Was any of the timing of things linked to this?

www.huntspost.co.uk/news/local-council/council-buys-cambridgeshire-farm-7072540
Helpfull

New holding for me today, great interview this morning.

https://twitter.com/stockboxmedia/status/1353628299474448386?s=21

hTTps://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMDEzODU0LnJzcw&ep=14&episode=QnV6enNwcm91dC02MzA3ODYx

A podcast exploring the idea that the PCR test is now the pandemic. I suspect the government are starting to appreciate this. I am still convinced LFTs are the best way out of this. They will be effective at curbing real transmission and will not give the false positives the current PCR method generates. This is a win win for government that can prove they have got us out of the pandemic by rolling out modern fast testing that demonstrares a declining case rate.

No worries, just wanted to clarify/discuss that we don't need to share anything for the HVIVO data as it is ours. But it will bolster the database and give that project more moemtum. The sum of parts is staggering here.

Swapleber, that is for the main database, we have an agreement with patient groups to share profits to support their cause. That database on it's own could be worth more than the current MCAP.

I may be wrong but a lot of what Cathal has been recently talking about regarding data is what they are discovering in HVIVO which is just another gem being dug out. This also ties in with the wearable opportunity talked about last night, this is using HVIVO's extensive database on disease progression.

It really would not surprise me if Cathal found as safe in the HVIVO basement to then find the gold the Gordon Brown sold off, he certainly seems to be on form atm.

Are others still able to buy? I have been trying for the last few hours and get NT on just 10k shares... I want a lot more than that...

All buys, my broker can't even get me 10k worth... could be a fun afternoon...

My post is more in line with my thinking as a long time share hold rather than the company official line. I see there is a risk TGAL becomes a vanity project for Bruce and Jeremy playing at big boy oil and gas.... I think the sums required to generate the increased production we are told it will, is not that attractive, certainly within T&T's current fiscal regime. Also with the recent announcements for changes mainly for onshore oil it is pointing the company in a different direction. I had to move from TRIN to TXP and then some other opertunities this year before coming back in here again, but TXP added the TGAL numbers with one $3m well onshore! Now if TRIN has no similar acherage to Ortoire I would prefer them to gear up as the countries largest onshore oil producer, certainly if the fiscal regime will incentivise it. I understand that TGAL could get preferential tax treatment but it does not get away from the capex required.

Anyway either way things are looking pretty exciting here, at £30m MCAP and half that in cash there is a lot of scope for multiples from here. Good luck all.

Stockable, Bruce knows the oil Industy well, we have an oven ready TGAL project but under current oil price and probably even a reformed fiscal regime it is not a very attractive project due to the capex. Bruce will know the old addage the best place to drill for oil is the stock exchange. A very old saying but very applicable to times like this. I think it is much more likely we will acquire new leases from the government/petrotrin onshore than tackle the TGAL white horse. Having said that a surprise complete removal of SPT on offshore oil (currently 30+%) may change that view. Interesting times but I sense the trajectory of TRIN may surprise some in the coming weeks.

Sona in my opinion is barely putting up a fight.... Their test is more expensive, more complicated and uses old antibody style reagents that will hit the same production issues as all antibody derived reagents.

Having said all that they appear to the only true challenge to AVCT's fast, simple low cost test. Unless anyone else has found a better competitor? AVCT's test, if it works, will be hard to beat because if you were to design the perfect test for this current situation you would probably come up with AVCT test.

This is the SONA CEO talking about their test, 13:20mins in he describes how it works. You 'simply' swab your throat, put the swab in a test tube, shake it and then put a few drops on the lateral flow device..
https://youtu.be/HJbWsOJBt1A

What a fantastic and professional presentation, demonstrating the hard work over many years starting to bare fruit. I bought in on the IP and work done over the last 5 years, stonking value at £50m MCAP at the time, but I had a hunch that affimers could play a vital role in the fight against COVID 19.

Now I don’t want to diminish the other projects, however in the short term I still don’t think the markets gets how Affimers could literally unlock the world with a rapid antigen test.

The key selling point of Affimer reagents is they are highly specific and are easy to replicate within ecoli.

Alistair indicated earlier that antibody reagents generated in mince or rabbits are struggling with the specificity. Throw in the fact that they are hard to replicate in volume and require the use of animals to do so, is the Affimer tech the only game in town for quantities the world needs?

Incredibly we only have a handful of brave soles trying to deramp/short AVCT (far fewer than I expected today) but I am with Myles’s thinking, the MCAP has a long way to go.

Trek, it has been on my radar since Feb re Nasdaq listing. See my old post below. However, the recent rescheduling of AVCT results makes me wonder if a buyout is on the cards. It may be the hunch of some of the funds that are still buying AVCT. I have never seen funds buy after a 4 x rise, so we may not make it to the Nasdaq imho, DYOR.

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When I was investing back in February and watching the the CEO enthused about the success of JPM conference he had attended in January, I was thinking this is the perfect set up for a company like this.

There are a few clues I have been trying to piece together.

1. Very successful JPM conference with the CEO stating his peers could not believe our valuation (at the time £50m MCAP)
2. The CEO comparing our tech to companies that have been bought out in the $bs.
3. Accounting period changed.
4. Second nominated broker with them taking a family stake days before the COVID 19 test RNS, maybe that relationship had been building since Jan and before the COVID situation became so prominent.
5. This second nominated broker has experience of taking a biotech company to the Nasdaq.
6. Yorkshire post article stating the company may have to list in China or the US to achieve fairer value.
7. Huge volume relative to last year ( there was a noticeable step change this year even when I bought in, now it is off the scale)
8. II’ s still adding after a 4 fold increase.

These are just the things I have been weaving together and just speculation, DYOR.

Thanks Rudey

Not only was that before the Pandemic but it was before the acquisition o HVIVO, which history might prove to be one of the most fortuitous and well time acquisition in the history of AIM!

HVIVO was loss making, had not had success with Flu V they have now and was worth £200m in 2015 during a period where virology was very unloved, so I would suggest the Summer 2019 business plan may have changed a little!

Has anyone written to Cathal and had a reply, if so what email address did you use?

Bank holiday is next Friday this year.

As a potential traveller I would want to test before leaving the comfort of my own home. But I think there will be tests both ends just to make sure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/trump-says-he-may-order-virus-tests-for-international-travelers

Trump Says He May Order Virus Tests for International Travelers

Please please stop cross ramping, it is good news to have a hopefully more reliable antibody test but let’s just focus here on what will get the world out of lockdown and that is a fast reliable saliva based ANTIGEN test!

If there is another company ahead of Cytiva and AVCT on a quick, saliva based ANTIGEN test I am very happy to discuss that.