Member Info for Confounded

Very interesting, certainly the fifth Pillar comment.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878121/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-strategy.pdf

The third pillar is antibody tests, which are designed to detect if people have had the virus and are now immune. These could potentially be done at home with a finger prick and deliver results in as little as twenty minutes. We are currently working with several companies who are offering these tests and are evaluating their effectiveness. Antibody tests offer the hope that people who think they have had the disease will know they are immune and get back to life as normal. But crucially, they have to be proven to work.

The fourth pillar is surveillance. We are conducting some of the biggest surveys in the world to find out what proportion of the population have already had the virus. This is done using a high accuracy antibody test operated by Public Health England at their Porton Down science campus. We will use these tests to help strengthen our scientific understanding and inform us all on the big choices we have to make about social distancing measures and how we exit from this crisis.

The fifth pillar is the most ambitious. We want to build in a short space of time, the large diagnostics industry that this country currently lacks. Just as our top end manufacturers have joined the national effort to build ventilators, so our life sciences companies will do the same for testing. UK pharmaceutical giants which don’t have a tradition of diagnostics, are now working with our world leading but smaller diagnostics companies, to build a British diagnostics industry at scale. This new national effort for testing will ensure we can get tests for everyone who needs them.

Good to see Cathal responding to a direct enquiries , however if you did not think he would be doing all those things you perhaps should not be invested here. The fact he has half his family wealth in ORPH and that he has pulled off one of the best acquisitions I have personally come across while investing in AIM is enough for me to wait out the resolution of post acquisition legacy issues.

With a webinar scheduled in less than 2 weeks things should get more lively here soon.

Try again...

Richob can you elaborate or provide a link?

Rickover, can you elaborate or provide a link?

After announcing a string of excellent news a few weeks back only for the legacy share holders to sell into every rally, Cathal’s current silence is good to see. He is clearly getting the landscape behind the scenes sorted before the next push. How this is still under £100MCAP is beyond me, I suspect Cathal knows his pathway to it.

The fact that the order books remains as opaque as it has indicates to me things are being worked in the background. The value is here, it is just a case of waiting for the post take over legacies to be sorted.

Hmm, a small raise to let in a couple of well known HNW individuals, seems a bit of a gift at 18p....

Also seems a bit of a strange size sum to raise at this point, given current cash balance and how market is atm. Seems a decent amount to work on a COVID test without draining funds for the trials later this year, although not a hint of that in the RNS.

However it increases the run way which was always going to be a little touch and go later this years so for the relatively small dilution at least it is out of the way. 6% dilutions should soon be forgotten and we can move forward for the reason the two investors obviously saw at one of the hardest times to raise funds you could imagine....

Deepjoy, On this point I totally agree, looking at today trades it’s a dogs dinner. Tiny volume and a complete mess. Maybe it is just the way we get to back test 6p but certainly one just to leave them to it.

John, I fear your investment style/personality is better suited to shorting stocks than owning them! Having looked at what I presume to be your other holders you are no more positive on them. It is bad for your mental health to fight your personality type.

We had a contract through a few weeks ago? It’s full and likely potential is 1/3 of current MCAP..... more news is imminent imho.

New contract for groups general work.
Update on the utilisation of the quarantine facility and restarted COVID 19 channel study.
Update on Flu V’s progress.
Update on the genomic Database they are pulling together.

Just a reminder ORPH has a current MCAP of £35m...

I personally think we have seen plenty already to move the stock, but the post placing indigestion is the main problem here. Given ORPH were communicating even when they made a round of tea the recent silence and last weeks cancelling of the webinar is indeed intriguing.

There is normally a higher number of posters here, if you have been investing for any amount of time you get to learn where there is more information/posting for each stock. Some have a greater following on ADVFN and others on LSE. I am a holder of physical shares, I expect a short term significant rerate in valuation and I will post things that I believe supports that view, it is quite a common posting style, my motives are clear.....

RSI and moment are of no interest to me other than the point I buy in. I totally believe in marrying technicals with fundamentals and ORPH has them in spades, your interest in them at this time leads me to believe you are like the numpty on ADVFN who was a realistic holder of shares but it turned out he was a spread betting chancer. A little digging and you can find out quite a bit about disruptive posters.

Interesting Gotabesirius, that post from deepjoy and his recent post just now seems to suggest he is a trader rather than a long term holder, I am so confused by these guys they are long term realistic holders and also traders......

Deepjoy we are so lucky to have your realistic input, you sound very much like one of the very odd chaps we had on ADVFN that was a 28 year veteran in virology but completely miss called the pandemic and then said it was because the government changed their plan. He seriously thought the government would let a virus with a WHO official death rate of 3% run unchecked through the entire population. So I have been sparing with experts in their fields that have been proven to be incorrect within weeks of trying to install their realism into my posts.... amazing the people you bump into on these boards.... but I would say the same things to you as I did him, with the success rate on AIM I personally do not think you should hold anything unless you have total conviction of a short term rerate in, a week is a long time in AIM.

My colours are truly nailed to the mast, I had conviction at 4.9p last Monday in ORPH when that nice feller was being realistic on ORPH and I still maintained it at the 7p we closed at on Friday, the current Enterprise value of ORPH is almost as laughable and your generous offerings on this board.

Hahahahahah, We had a similar bunch of caring realist holders on ADVFN last week but fortunately their depressing realism has deserted those boards for now as the share price rose from sub 5p to 7p.... They also felt their benevolent realism trying to keep us optimistic holders feet on the ground would be appreciated when posted, meanwhile those same poster were pumping some other flaky stock with a fraction of ORPHs fundamentals. It was really odd how someone so keen to keep ORPHs share holders feet on the ground were off pumping a total rainbow stock, made you wonder if they were not being benevolent but in fact had a different motive.....

Hahahahahahahah,

I can’t get out and do any real fishing atm and a bit of indoor bait casting and the numpties swallow the whole lot the greedy so and so’s.......

What are the naysayers adding to the argument. Loss making, we know that and Cathal said in February the aim to announce a profit in the coming weeks. With the £10m contract announced and being flat out at HVIVO moving from a 30% utilisation rate to 100% utilisation rate for the foreseeable future, looks pretty good to me. The whole ORPH group is worth £35m MCAP with and enterprise value below £30m!!!!! HVIVO was worth £200m MCAP in 2015, was loss making and then had £110m pumped into it by Woodford.

HVIVO is a World leader in Virology at a time $ Trillions of economic destruction is being done and their help is needed more now than any time in History. Random numpties coming on and on saying back down to 5.5p when we are clearly breaking out under a surge of new interest in the sector just shows what a bunch of numpties the naysayers are and why people absolutely should not base any I decision based on their chip chip chip of deramping.

Cathal Has never seen an investment opportunity in his life, I have never seen a better one in my life and the little boys in the boxer shorts playing at investing with money they would normally spend in the sweets shop all adds to the spice of life.

Sell your shares to these numpties or take it as a good sign there are motivated to try and talk this down. Anyone wondering why the very driven and promotional Cathal pulled out of last weeks webinar and there has been silence since? I certainly am, throw in the sudden interest by the naysayers and things are looking pretty interesting here. Look at Friday, talked down all day and finished up at 7p.

I just posted this on ADVFN

Look none of us know for sure, and even if we are not the provider of the current antigen test being rolled out we know how to make some of the best available using Affimers. If you listen to the Bill Gates interview testing is going to be our way out of this situation.

hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52072568

“At a Downing Street news conference on Friday, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said hundreds of antigen tests - which check whether people currently have the disease - would be given to frontline staff this weekend.“

“ The antigen or "have I got coronavirus now?" test will tell you if someone is currently infected and risks spreading it to others. That's the one that is being used to check very ill patients in hospitals and will now be rolled out to NHS staff too.

The antibody or "have I recently had coronavirus" test is not available to the public yet but Public Health England is ordering it in the millions. That will help tell us how many people got coronavirus with no or only mild symptoms.

Both are vital to get a better handle on how to stop the spread of this deadly disease.”

hTTps://avacta.com/diagnostics/affimer-applications/affimer-immunoassay-reagents/

Affimer® reagents have been successfully used to detect and quantify antigens across a broad range of immunoassay platforms. Highly specific Affimer® binders can be generated to a wide variety of novel targets and routinely show minimal matrix effects within the assay environment. The application of these binders as capture reagents within an immunoassay can increase the potential specificity and dynamic range of the assay, delivering improved accuracy and the opportunity to multiplex sample analysis.

The negativity is either subtle deramping or people who don’t know what they bought into. The cancellation of tonight’s webinar shows things are moving fast here as it was only booked up recently. Cathal is hugely aligned with share holders and HVIVO has immense opportunities in this market. Sit tight and enjoy the ride.

Who cares about technicals here, despite the breakout this week being very positive and as a follower myself. The simple fact is at £35m MCAP and the currency as weak as it is, ORPH looks very cheap based on asset valuation alone(£50-60m for HVIVO’s quarantine facility and channel study models according to Cathal) let alone the IP and revenue opportunities, Venn Life sciences and the genomic database..... The pulling out of tonight’s webinar has me worried Cathal will sell this out cheap at his pre guided 2-3x. Telling investor not to be greedy when the only reason we invest in anything is to achieve the maximum gain possible. In AIM we certainly take enough hits on poorer choices....

As another reminder HVIVO alone was worth £200m MCAP in 2015 when it was loss making and before Woodford pumped in a huge amount of cash. I just can’t see how this is worth 2-3x in this climate. All of coarse IMHO DYO.