Member Info for Confounded

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/how-wetherby-based-avacta-group-striving-find-treatments-lung-breast-gastric-and-bowel-cancer-1888918

Around 6:20am Flu camp covered on BBC Breakfast, as others have said but here is the link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

Flu V rippling round the world. The more I watch the controlling of the share price the more I fear a stitch up on a deal already being done at pre Corona virus valuations for the group. It just makes no sense for us to be a 5p and Cathal telling share holders not to be greedy and just aim for 2-3x. In this market and the potential this group has you could add 0 to those multiples imho/DYOR.

hTTps://www.contagionlive.com/news/universal-flu-vaccine-candidate-shows-protection-in-new-trial

Good to see ORPH mentioned along side so many top pharmaceuticals..

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/covid-19-the-race-for-a-vaccine/

L2, what evidence do you have on the selling being done? I have been in shares where similar things have rumbled on, everyone getting despondent that news was not be priced in, then at some point selling stops and the relate happens. Will be great to get confirmation.

If you follow Myles a 1% holder on Twitter he meT with the CEO on Friday and is very confident for the coming weeks. I personally would be very surprised if one of our many partners have not applied our technology to the current crisis.

Hi York, I personally feel there is a possible link to Moderna and their rapid creation of the Corona virus but we have had no confirmation yet from the company and that article does not specifically mention the corona virus.

Chas, that is a good point. It would be my preference if this allows a serious partner, even one with a view to a full purchase, to buy in at this level and grow the relationship while letting the business fulfil its full valuation potential.

Spencer, ORPH MCAP only £32m atm so £100m is a little over 3 times, still seem a bargain to me. The quarantine unit cost £40m to build on its own. HVIVO was valued at £200m MCAP in 2015 pre Flu V success and while making a loss. Interesting times ahead.

Absolutely, many strings to ORPH’s bow. HVIVO was a phenomenal buy but the database and Venn is/will be worth multiples of the share price so far.

One left field thought I have been having, is I just can’t get a valuation anywhere near as low as Cathal’s 2-3x. He keeps telling us not to be greedy, has this pandemic caught out a prepackaged agreement for someone to acquire Open Orphen for that sort of level. Along comes the pandemic and shines a very big spotlight onto it exposing the huge potential in what Cathal has put together. £30m MCAP is astonishing and recent share price action very much indicate things going on behind the scenes, whether that is indiscriminate selling of Woodford legacy (seems strange professionals are prepared to sell for pence on the pound given the opportunity now presented here).

All just speculation by me, but interesting times ahead.

Sleeping giant, tickle tickle. New focus on virology makes current MCAP look ridiculous IMHO.

hTTPs://vimeo.com/128859854?ref=tw-v-share

Feels like a deal is being worked to clear up these shares to me. Let’s hope we can start closing the massive valuation gap soon.

While Virology was in a Cinderella phase (as Cathal puts so well) HVIVO was loss making and worth £200 MCAP in 2015 (happy for people to fact check but I worked out there was 65m shares at £3.20 in spring 2015), it then had over £100m pumped into it by Woodford as I understand it. I have never held a share with so much potential, I have held shares with overhangs before and it worries me little the share price is where it is.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/researchers-rush-to-start-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-without-usual-animal-testing/

Interesting over all but this bit was particularly interesting.

“The question is complicated by the newness of the science at play. The technology that has allowed Moderna to craft an experimental vaccine so fast has not yielded a single immunization that’s made it to market so far. It’s a trendy idea: Instead of injecting people with a weakened pathogen or proteins from the surface of a pathogen, so that our bodies will learn to fight off such infections in the future, scientists are betting on a kind of genetic hack, a lab-made concoction that gets the body to produce its own virus-like bits which it will then train itself to combat.

At the center of it all is a molecule called messenger RNA, or mRNA. Inside of us, its normal function is to transmit the instructions contained within our DNA to the cellular protein-making factories that carry them out. In Moderna’s recipe, the mRNA is synthetic, programmed with the goal of getting our inner machinery to produce certain coronavirus-like proteins — the very proteins that the pathogen uses to gain entry into our cells. Once those homemade dummy virus particles are there, the thinking goes, our bodies will learn to recognize and clobber the real thing.”

With NEX ignore the spread it is what they go through at that is important relative LSE’s current pricing. My broker sometimes puts my trades through NEX despite most the time going through LSE.

JSB1989, interesting MCAP prediction below. I have been looking into HVIVO historical MCAP and as recent as mid 2015 it had a MCAP of £200m and the was before Woodford cash injection and Flu V advancement. I just posted this on ADVFN.

Just looking at HVIVO historical price. In 2015 it had 61.75m share in issue and a share price of £3.20 a £197m MCAP! It was making a loss then also. As I understand it Woodford then put in over £100m, I believe into the quarantine/channel studies along with Flu V. Did we get all of HVIVO in the recent £11m purchase?....

Look what happens when the breaks are off. I would rather be in ORPH than TILS, the scope here is many many multiple of current price. Hopefully Cathal deals with the II selling soon.

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=TILS&share=Tiziana-Life-Sc

They are marking buys as sells atm.

Totally agree re FLU V, with Corona virus here until we get herd immunity, the best way to free up essential ICU beds globally is to reduce the number of cases of seasonal flu.

This project could move forward a lot quicker than the market is pricing in. It is oven ready, what a fantastic position to be in.

Si, I think if this was still listed just as HVVIO it would have done an NYCT by now. Because it is now part of a larger group the investment story takes more research. HVIVO is far far better off in Open Orphen but with the over hang and it taking a while for the market to work things out this is where it is. But for how long?

Exactly, this does not impact the end destination, and no point fighting each other over it. It was clear over a month ago when I started buying at 6.3p that the group Cathal has pulled together here is sensational, but there was an overhang to clear. Everyday since then the selling pressure has been apparent. However when that is gone It will be worth the wait and it has allow me to get quite a few share significantly lower then the recent fundraise.