Member Info for Cheapskater

Not sure about MERS but SARS was not as infections as it apparently didn't infect the eyes mouth or throat so you needed to inhale it to the lungs to catch. Once there it was relatively quick to take hold. COVD19 is incredibly infectious and though it is mild in many people, because of the way it speads it is going to kill many, many more just due to the volume of it's impact. eg 10% of 20,000 people is 2,000 but 1% of 10,000,000 people is 100,000 Those are not the actual stats they are just illustrative but you get the idea. This is less deadly by case but but more infectious so it is more deadly by population.

There's some doubt over whether those "re-infected" were just not clear and they were tested with something that was not provide a reliable anitgen test. Much uncertainty all around. It could generally be expected that anyone who fought off the virus once would be more resistant to reinfection as the body should know how to tackle it again but perhaps only in hte current outbreak. There is a grey line between immune and resistant that some don't understand or is not stated. Resistant means you get it but it's less serious. immune means you don't get it. This is one of the reasons conquistadors were able to take over the americas in the age of discovery. That was mostly smallpox but the priniciple is the same. I think I remember reading that Hawaiians died from the common cold. Once a society has been exposed there is usually resistance in theose that remain. Antibody tests could still be useful to to signify a likely general resistance to a second wave.

Too many questions over this one though about whether it can be fatal a second time and whether they can pass it a on if infected. It's likely to be no and yes because of resistance but we just don't know. Until there's a long lasting vaccine I think antigen tests are still going to be vital but once outbreaks are controlled the volumes will be much lower. Now is the time to be here.

Also was targeting my reply to Denn92 not having the best day on the baords...I'll shut up :-/

I meant stop losses when it hit £4

Woodlaldo - Limit orders will have a lot to do with it. People are triggering sells when it goes above and £5 is a nice round number. Though I was expecting stop loss sells to trigger when it hit £5 today taking it back to previoud support levels of 355-365 but it didn't so I'm not sure that it all there is to it.

Spurs7777 wrote "on AIM you have to have balls of steel if you don't hold you will always loose"
My general experience on AIM couldn't be further from this. AIM is littered with lifestyle companies and if you do hold you will almost certainly lose because they don't make profits and issue shares until they do. They have rises and spikes but the mcap doesn't rise and if you hold to get diluted to nothing. NCYT over the last 3 months is in a position of being an exception tothe general rule and you see people here buying on news. and selling on profits and limit orders. It's a refreshing change.

This could go quite high over the next few weeks but there are risks in the form of being unable to satisfy demand and a reliable antibody test being developed which we are gambling on but in antigen terms they are unbeatable in quality terms. Theres nothing more accurrate and anything faster is less accurate...so far. NCYT also making their test more simple and faster, it's never going to be a 5 minuter but with more portable equipment (in a van rather then a case) and the reagentless version it might get down to 30 mins from swab to result. Right now it's about 90 mins if the swab is taken near the lab. It if needs transportation to a lab it could be a day or so. New agreements and some wider OEM deals and this is still the test share with most realistic short term potential.

@mornington-oz "NCYT money moving here"
Some of mine certainly has. As usual, wishing I did it yesterday but that's life :-)

This is really struggling to hold above a fiver and couldn't get a quote while bid was @520 this morning so I was especting a drop below. This might be the upper limit for a bit so I've consolidated. Av was about 140 so happy. If this flies to the moon now then never mind but it's clipped over 500 a few times and come back so I'm taking a punt that it may happen again and I may be able to reload. If not, I'm 250% in profit so I'll have to settle for that. Hoping to get back in before sales figures show massive growth. Been an interesting month. GLA

Alas I was looking at ODX as they don;t actually have a tesat yet and thought it might be worth a punt but if everyobne else is and they don't get a more reliable anitbody test then it'll be down the drain

That's exactly the sort of news I was looking for. Perhaps a shame it wasn't 7am tomorrow for maximum effect but perhaps it was about to leak from one of the other partner and they had to get it out during the trading day. Hopefully not enough time to get back up today and we'll see an early surge tomorrow AM to new highs

Expectation is there will be news on the opening of the 30k tests a day in Cambridge at the end of the month or first week of May. Although this is a known or expected event it should raise the profile of NCYT again and bring in another wave of investors/traders. In the meantime I would like to see some good sales figures and some news on more scaling up of production or agreements on the farming out of production to major players around the world so the test can be scaled up to several millions per day globally as they are needed and pretty much globally approved. That would see the SP kick on to a new level.

£7.50 for a take over is hardly a ramp. It'll get past that on its own with the right news. Quite possibly a lot further. Any take over to get any traction would be well north of a tenner. I can't see it myself if someone wants to share the success just get in on the sales by licensing the test and mass producing it. Once this is over there's not much more to NCYT unless they can come up with seomthing else. No point taking over the whole company for one significant success which is time limited. Licensing is an alreound win for anyone producting, Novacyt in license receipts and shareholders in rises on income RNSs

Probably stating the obvious but I'm guessing various limit orders are kicking off around the fiver mark holding this back when it hits. Well done if that's your top slice to lock in some profit and be sitting on free shares. You can try and relax now. If the limit orders are mostly settled now then on the next push it would be nice to smash through to the next level. Wouild help if there was some positive sales news as we've not heard anything about sales since the India order on 30th March.

No idea of the limit here or when. Until there is a reliable antibody test or a reliable on the spot antigen tests I don't see there are any current threats to more sales other than not being able to make enough to keep up with demand. Especially as we are not hearing about people being re-infected. Likely they weren't clear and it came back from the saem infection as they are using poor tests to determine if the virus is still present. I would also like to see one or more global licensing agreements for pharmas around the world to make the NCYT antigen test under license as they appear to be taking on too much at the moment to be able to satisfy what should be massive demand.

Lower end of expectations, which I thinik were 10-15 milion a day. It's 10m.

Global consumption runmoured to be down but up to 35m a day so the tanks are gonna overflow.

Expecting a poo drop over the next few weeks. Not much time to build more strorage to hold billions of barrels so the chokes on the taps are going to have to be turned down regardless. China moving again is not going to make enough difference if India, US and Europe are not and there's next to no aviation. I might be wrong and soemthing might happen so I'm not selling but sort of hoping it goes lower so I can top up in style.

It may never get to market. The are yet to develop the test. If they do it will leap. If it proves to be accurate then there is no upward limit that I would even think of hazarding a guess at.

Because these things can take days to months to get from one stage to the next and someone else might get there first, so right now ODX is a punt. A cheap one to be sure but risky if you are thinking it is going to rescue a portfolio from the last 2 months losses. I will not be putting a lot of funds into. It's on my watchlist for sure and I might even slip a few quid in to keep my interest up but it's very wait and see territory. Fingers crossed it delivers because it's got the potential to be huge. GLA

Just syaing "Hi"

The other LSE chat I was on has gone very cold lately and I picked up some of these two weeks ago between 117 and 125 then topped up yesterday at 179. Trying to generally keep up with what people are saying but home working fulltime in healthcare reguation sector so rather busy. Not got used to who the regulars are yet but glad to be in this one.

It's looks like it's got a couple of weeks to a couple of months to keep sawtoothing generally upwards. Hopefully NCYT will help to plug the hole in the things I'm down on. Interesting times with buying opportunities all over the place for those with spare cash.

Suspect permission was withdrawn in the current climate not a slammed door, just a closed until further notice type of thing. Outback social distancing, nobody within 20 miles of one another. Not something that needs pursuing until the government lifts travel restrictions anyway. Kind of lost my interest here now. Seems to be the same with a lot of others since this is the first post today when we used to be quite chatty. Hope everyone is hanging in there. The recent upswing on the market feels very temporary and I'm only doing some trading at the moment on short term stuff. I have a feeling the bottom will be in the next 2-4 weeks then I'm hoping to pile into things that will still be around in 2 years. Things like BP have shown that when people think that it's going to come back up it moves very fast. Not sure this one will though. I'll just take a peek every now and again. I have so little at play in here since the drops that it doesn't matter if I never sell.

....WTI goes back above $50. Since yesterday it became almost worthless to anyone. Arkoma is worthless now

Iraq say upping production from next month and Russia not above retaliating by opening the taps. This may not even be the bottom. All just as the outbreak in China is on the wane and the market there may open up again in April. Poo should be back up to a sensible level by June or July and a few supply contracts will have changed hands. Sell the assets then. Sell GEM stake to cover expenses in the meantime. It's worth about £60k

Still I made a small killing on BP overnight so not all bad. ??

No timeframe given for profitability. Not even a rough estimate just an empty statement which is the fundamental objective of every loss making company. If that wasn't their focus before then no wonder it is where it is.

AC once said in a Proactive Investors interview it was expected to occur with the recompletion of Stanley 2 and the drilling of Falcon 1. S2 was disappointing that MSMN dropped their interest in S3 by 10% from 16.5 to 14.85% which turned out to be a mistake. However, S3 has probably delivered the shortfall of S2's expectation in that statement. Falcon 1 has disappeared into the distance of H2 this year when expectations were it would be last year. Now oil has collapased due to coronavirus shutting down consumption and the whole thing going to continue for an unknown period of time then I have my doubts it will be achieved thios year. S4 percentage probably 16.5 so I dooubt that can deliver profitability either. With the disposal of assets maybe but they need to deliver good sale prices to ensure no need for further fundraising until they achieve more money in than out.

From what was supposed to be the big year for MSMN profitability has probably been booted down the road to 2021. It is imperative that EP145 is not lost but I can't see the JV being done until travel restrictions are lifted in Aus so there is a real danger there id August is again a milestone for seismic.

I have to say my confidence is very low. No point selling now though it's so nearly worthless that I might as well see it to the end one way or another. Looking at using spare cash in the buying opportunities created by the dip in the market now.

If that was unforeseen by the BoD then they really are driving this without knowing where they are going. I don't believe that and that tweet was misleading. Not happy. Hoping the JV come through now but I can't see that happening in time for May so they need to progress with the seismic. Agree with the sale of Arkoma but not so sure about Welch. I thought it was quite profitable. Glad I didn't stop up at 0.21 now. Sorry for those that got carried away with happy thoughts. I called the risk of a placing as there hadn't been one for 9 months and the company is not profitable. Now existing operations will be all out of their hands. Given the planning that may be no bad thing but they are not going to have a choice about when to spend. With the percentage and Stanleys being so small they are pinning a lot on Champion so it need to deliver and it's H2 now so it's really JV or nothing and if they don't get the seismic done in EP145 then it's nothing. I will pump nothing extra in here ever but not worth selling up at these prices as I can write off what it's now worth. Might stay off the board for a while as there's nothing to speculate on here for a month or more. Good luck to those who stay invested.