Member Info for Cheapskater

Laura is a lot wider than that line. This is the news showing it making landfall last night
https://abc11.com/hurricane-laura-path-national-center-update/6389346/

The eye hasn't hit land yet but 100mph+ winds are currently over Champion area where Falcon-1 is due to be drilled. Here is the location map and Stanley, Challenger (no activity) an Champion are all in the path , as is Houston.

https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/usa-project-location-map

I expect to hear about some delays while damage is assessed, perhaps water logged roads, etc. Stanley's don't have pumpjacks so there's just the stroage tanks that might get damaged there and need an inspection. Tanker trucks might not be getting there for a few days either so expect a small shut in, choke of the well heads to reduce flow until normal activities can be resumed. I'm sure roads will be blocked by trees and power may be affected so emergency access will take priority over commercials but I don't think it's going to be bad for more than a few days. More news will come as it hits land and there should be some sort of RNS to say the impact, even if it was negligible to reassure the markets.

Fingers crossed people who couldn't move out are okay as that part or Louisiana is a very tranquil area and a lovely drive when things are calm. Can't say the same for Port Arthur on the Texas side of the TX-LA state boundary but they will also be feeling it so thoughts are with them all.

Lots of things happening but any idea what happened to this from the RNS on 20/7?
"In addition, noting costs continue to be closely monitored, the directors have agreed to accept shares in lieu of cash payment for Director and consultancy fees, subject to approval by shareholders at a General Meeting. The Notice of Meeting currently is lodged with the Australian Regulators for sign off and the meeting date for August 2020 will be confirmed in due course."

Maximising investment it like good comedy in that it's largely about timing, otherwise investing can just be comedy. I was waiting to come back in here after the above and willing to sell some stuff to get on board. It likely means a share issue, either to give shares to the BoD in lieu of cash or to pay them in cash if the votes goes the other way. Yes, I know it's tiddly fund raise but any share issue tends to spook the market in the short term and I was hoping to capitalise on that. I have a funny feeling it's not going to happen so there should be an announcement about the change of circumstances.

I think I will aim to come back in from sometime next week anyway because the next three months look to be very interesting one way or another and I'm starting to get a bit of FOMO.

Well it above my bail out price now. Glad to see the SP doing well on the anticpation of a couple of drills it looks more promising now hence the change in sentiment and people taking bigger positions. I may have missed the boat to come back as I don't have the free funds but after all the years I was here with abunch of people who still are here, it does start to look as though our feelings for the potential of the company to come good and become profitable might finally take shape. Well done to those who had the nerve to ride the distance and top up/average down if it keeps following this trajectory and Falcon 1 gives 200bopd+ then I see this on the path to a solid investment. Good luck and if I can find some funds I may rejoin the bandwagon.

2m mcap is pretty Good for MSMN it has been struggling to get away from 1m for years but 0.35 to 0.5p would be about 5m to 8m without any real news and that it surely fantasy. A nice fantasy I'll grant you.

I've been following MSM and often been in and averaging down since the Petroleum Creek days when the price was about 25p and I think there were about 120m shares in issue. It was failure after failure with that then STEP and then Pine Mills that saw it dwindle to 1m mcap. Even when they finally became a producer with Strawn it was a loser. It was Welch that made them turn the corner and even though Arkoma was probably not a confidence booster it is the relationship with Baja in the last few years that has seen things get close to the point where they might see profitability but still a 1m mcap as there was little market confidence. Then coronavirus struck which severely wounded poo and the JV talks with the Chinese for EP145 went into a tailspin. Still 1m mcap. Even so they have a farm out for EP155 and Stanley 4 about to drill and Falcon 1 a month later so things are still on the up and a modicum of confidence seems to have returned explained by the doubling of mcap.

I am a bit out of touch with the funding situation. MSMN have a disproportionate outlay on Falcon 1 drill compared to their 60% holding which is why they temporarily reduce their stake. That got them some funds from non-refundable deposits as did the Welch sale-fail but without they still have costs and without the farm out and the Welch sale the have less funds and full large drill costs for F1. So is there enough to drill F1 and operate without a quick sale of Welch?

I am nervous of MSMN investor conferences as they have often been followed by a share issue so I am staying out at the moment. The timing of this for me is suspicious, it's going into an as yet undated GM to agree Directors remuneration via shares. Whatever they outcome of that meeting there will be a share issue either to pay the directora shares or to raise funds to pay them cash. I wouldn't be surprised to see it used to generate money for the F1 drill too. Hence I am not putting money in here until about 2-3 weeks after that GM. I'm not saying I'm right but that's what my gut is telling me from my previous experiences here.

Now expecting to see people tell me I'm deramping in the hope of a lower entry point. blah blah. Anyway if I am wrong I may miss the boat, if I am right and get the timing okay then I'm going to buy more than the 6m I had before but I'm not going long on MSMN any more. Short tem success will still depend on F1 drill outcome. EP145 is going nowhere until Oz 2nd wave is over and it's only just starting. Looking to next spring for that one at the earliest. GLA

Mood from the market looking at the sp today would suggest otherwise. The numbers are not too weak but the market is bearish across most sectors as US infections are more or less out of control in some states. I can't really call it with any authrority but my feeling is the divi will be reduced but not cancelled. However, the divi was huge compared to the normal SP, compared to now it would be immense if it was maintained. Therfore a 50% to 75% reduction would not be a surprise and still a healthy return on investment for those that buy in the the recent levels. I'm planning to ride it out but I might scale down or up if there is a large movement in either direction. As you say, should find out soon. What's your thinking VanVan?

@bogyo. They are the same for both. The answer is this line in the 26/6 RNS
"GlobalCo is the same organisation with which the Company is collaborating to develop its CDX antibody product candidate"
Then on the 13/7 they announced that GlobalCo was Eli Lilly.

Held out against a sea of red on my portfolio today. Tinkering just above the 7p placing last month so hopefully we're close to the bottom. I have no feeling of timings on this one though so I really don't know what to expect and when. Hopefully that means there's no expectations of anything priced in. I trebled my holding this afternoon though so it will probably drop from here..... ;¬)

Well I am thinking about making a return soon. It would be nice to try and get some of my money back. Timing is everything. I'm currently shying away from dipping back in until a little after the general meeting in August. I'm not sure how much the directors are owed now but paying them in shares might damage the recent improvement in sentiment especially if they aren't at market value or given with cheeky options. The fact the sp is holding well above the placing price earlier this month is testimony that the market feels this it is likely go north soon although trading volume is low. If I miss out, it was never meant to be. I still have high hopes for EP145 but in the meantime, if Falcon-1 is anything like the Stanley's but with the bigger percentage ownership it could spell turn around. I also like that Welch has not been sold but raised $90k. Just need poo to continue its recovery and maybe they will hang onto it or get a good price.

Signs of some auto-selling around the 100p mark made me think the profit takers were going to take a slice and expect it to slide to 85p before pushing on so sold at 101 hoping to reload and missed the ride to 170. Still profit is profit and I'll have to settle for that. Anyone hold their nerve to call the top around 170 or even 160? I think I won't see my sell price again as this could push on again after the conference call this afternoon or tomorrow but it's been an interesting ride. I may be back but I would expect it to be with fewer shares from here. Well done to those that called it better than me and if you are still here then you may well do better still.

Surprising. Dummy trade of my holding is offered at full price but nobody has sold.

So the percentage movement looks interesting of late but unless you are in with >100k shares or a significant portion of your portfolio then the possibility of gaining a couple of £hundred is really not getting my pulserate above a near flatline. The news was positive of a potentially brighter future (which already had potential) and this current movement is just an indicator that the company is on people's radar and might bring in more watchers how might be potential investors. This is a good thing for people who are here for a potential big swing on the right news. I'm here because I like what it does and have hopes of it going towards a significant payday in a few months to a year but it's a punt that I am using a small % of recent profits on and not resting any major expectations on it. Right now it's being traded and small swings can bring short termers good returns but they are no interested in the company doing well that are interested in entry and exit prices. I fancy HEMO as a going concern for maybe the first half of 2021 so I'm going to stick it out unless there is a change in outlook which suggests otherwise. Currently back to where I bought in a couple of months ago. I expect it to drift down on new news and rise/fall fast on news, depending on what it is, as there is currently an interest level here that will see share transactions peak enough for big swings at interesting moments. For me, this is not one of those moments.

@dubs, BP very kindly have a financial calendar on their website which if you intend to frequent this share for trading or investing purposes it's useful to bookmark so you can set up your reminders. If the link posts the live one is:

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/financial-calendar.html

If not google BP financial calendar and it should give you this and the PDF download for the year's events

I have quite low opinions on all investor forecasts that give price targets without any reasoning and I never base investment decisions on them except perhaps to go the opposite direction of the recommendation if the price moves in the direction of the forecast. If a big enough herd takes their advice then it creates a movement which others then might react to that creates a bigger movement but without any actual company news to back it up is just a spike to be sold into, if you aleady own them, or possibly a dip to buy into for a recovery of something oversold. In that sense any forecaster with a big enough readership of traders is as good a source of where to trade as looking at RNSs from 7am because sharp movements nearly always have a large degree of opposite correction. If enough people follow them and trade on that principle then they become self-fulfilling prophecies and the target prices reach or approach quickly even if the "forecast" was a 12 month target price.

Same thing goes for reading charts, if enough people believe the same thing then the herd will move the price in line with the belief. There's often nothing material behind it but as we know, it's market sentiment that determines a shareprice on the day to day, which is the traders operational window. Company performance moves the SP from qtr to qtr which is where the investors look. If you can read the sentiment but not get sentimental then you can be a successful trader. Got be be completely unemotional and work to targets.

He's okay as it hit 376 yesterday morning :-) It just didn't stick :-(

Thanks fo rhte response, CT. The RNS annoucements suggested the last 2 patients in the hospitalised trial enrolled about the same time as the whole 120 home use enrollees but I expect more screening for the home trial patients before they start inhaling. They will need to ensure randomisation etc but they still stated the hospital result were not expected until July and I have no reason to doubt that. If there's sufficient need and the results are clear then an emergency use approval alongside a double blinded phase III might be possible but emergency use is generally time limited so a phase III will still be required for the longer term. That longer term stuff doesn't matter to me though as a good phase II result can bring short term good sentiment and a nice spike on the SP could see me off as phase III trials usually take a long time and I was just hoping any money in here would return more than my recovery plays in the same timescale allowing me to top up with more of them than I could have if I had put the same money I put in here in there. I only put 30% of late Feb to early May profits across my three punts with SNG being one, so if 1/3 of them comes good I should be no worse off and possibly better off and if 2/3 then it was a great move. 3/3 would be a dream and I am not remotely expecting it. 0/3 would be disappointing but not damaging as I'm up over 100% on the other 70%. It's much harder to back potential multibag risers now than 2-3 months ago but it was certainly an interesting journey. Hope you and everyone else gets at least a sizable fraction of what they are wishing for.

The reason I put money in here has not changed. I'm waiting for the outcome of the SNG001 Covid phase II trial. Was a little disappointed they extended it to home users too but so long as thats to see if it prevents hospitalisation as well as the hospital cases to see if it prevents the need for ventillation then okay. I'd like to know why they were not run as two separate phase II trials so they could have unblinded the hospital trial. One possible interpretation is they didn't see overall better outccomes for patients in hospital and wanted to try getting them earlier and there has not been a statement that the home trial is funded to that end, only to start so there maybe some buying expecting a fund raise. I'll take my chances and stick. I was in here with a fraction of my Novacyt profits so if it comes to nothing, that's life but I still have hopes for a successful trial giving a significant rise.

I feel the main reason money may be leaving though is that covid stocks are not as sexy as they were between Feb and April and there are a bunch of "safe" recovery plays out there which can/have provided better short term returns as markets improve. Much of my profits went to BP, GLEN, EVR as they were trading around 50% of their normal levels. With SNG001 Covid trial results not expected until July so why should the sellers tie up their money here for the whole of June. At that point they can decide to come back if they feel there are enough Covid patients still out there to monetise SNG001, considering it will need a phase III before it can get widescale approval. If we start to see a second wave they may be back in droves. Even if there aren't that many cases and no imminent second wave, without a long term vaccine it's not going away so an effective treatment that can be easily delivered is going to be essential in case it comes back in the autumn. So the potential for monetising is still there. Might just be a much longer term investment than I was expecting to see the return i was hoping for.

MSMN sp has never tracked poo . Only profitable companies do that MSMN is not one of them. I think they would have been close to profit with someting like an $80 WTI average while they owned Welch but now that is gone, the bopd to MSMN is very low with the Stanley's being 14.85 to 18.5% share. The joy of hte Stanley's is until otherwise know the oild flow up without pumpjacks so it's very cheap to operate and it is also such good quality that it sells at a premium to WTI but the volumes to MSMN is so small that it can't operate at a profit. Until they make a profit at a susptainable poo level then there will also be fear of dilution to keep the company going so 1p+ is a pipe dream. Expect fear of dilution to be the main factor driving sentiment here until (if) profit happens regardless of the levels of cash in the bank as they need to invest to grow to a profitable level. Only then poo will be a big factor for moving the sp.

However, if the JV for EP145 happens in time and the terms are not too unfavourable you might see that 1p. When? Well that is the £11.27million question (at the current shares in issue) I've always said they need to have time limits on the JV for delivery and percentages earned to incentivise any partner into production. If they get a Central Petroloeum/Santos type arrangement then you can probably kiss any investment here goodbye. I'm still optimistic but I'm balancing that with expectations and the experience of MSMN since Petroleum Creek where there have been some nearly moments, such as STEP and the JV talks for EP145 and the tied in with Baja where 1 more drill was expected to see MSMN profitable. It all looks as far away as ever at the moment but things could change at any time. I'm more cautious than optimistic now.

More on what double blinding means. Nobody knows who is taking what until the results are unblinded. Not even SNG. Someone will be preparing nebuliser cartidges and the SNG001 and the placebo/control will look the same to the clinician. These will typically be numbered in a way that the number does not hint at the contents. So for 100 patients that are split 50/50 between active and control there will be 14 days of one preparation labelled as one thing and 50 loads and 14 days * 50 preparations of Control002 labelled as an intermingling number range. The people that prepare the doses will know which is which and will know which clinician location they went to but will not know which patients are receiving which. The clinician administering the trail to patients will annonymise the patients and know which patient is receiving which dose number. This way neither the clinician nor the patient are aware and the placebo effect is reduced but not neutralised because patients will know they have signed up for the trial and may think they are getting something they are not.

You will also have another control group of people who are not in the trial and know they are not it to truly neutralise placebo effect. There may be many more of these patients and you might consider another 100 so long as their starting position is known to be the same.

So you have:
1 - not getting it and know they aren't
2 - not getting it but know they might be
3 - getting it and know they might be
For completeness it would be nice but unethical, due to consent requirements, to have another group which is getting it but not knowing they might be.

Unblinding is done when the pre-trial unblinding conditions have been met. Sometimes that is all patients have received their course of treatment. In this case that is 14 days per patient and so long as they were all started within a week or so the trial should only run at an administering stage for a month. Outcomes are recorded and checked for all patients and put against their anonymised code whcih is already matched to the preparation number they were getting. Then these details are sent back to the organisation running the trial where the preparations were mapped to the active and control numbers and the data is effectively unblinded. If the active preparation had a more postive outcome for patients than the 2 control groups for whatever it is you are looking for, in this case I think that is whether they needed to go onto a ventilator, then it is a success and may proceed to a large scale phase III trial. If the results are very clear and the requirement is urgent then there may be pressure to introduce it as a treatment for some as well as do a phase III study or the phase II may be weighted more to people receiving the treatment as you can work out more about stage of illness when starting to get it, what underlying health conditions most benefit if more people receive it. You still need a sufficient number of control

# trades is a long way down from the heady days of March to April. I think people have seen the trading opportunities fade and gone elsewhere. Tempted to pack it in myself for a second time but not quite ready yet. I don't have a strong feeling for it any more and I don't know where the long term SP should be. the market seems to think £4 is about right for now. Who am I to argue? Well if I'l not arguing that then why am I still here? Perhaps others are wondering the same. I have to keep reminding myself I'm waiting for the reagentless direct to PCR test to be announced which I had my expectation set for some time this month with this in the RNS on 15th April:

"Research and development update

Novacyt has been working to address the current reported shortfall in extraction reagents required to perform PCR testing through the development of a new "direct-to-PCR" extraction method prior to running the Company's COVID-19 test. This removes the need for some scarce reagents and significantly reduces the number of extraction steps, allowing faster cycle times, higher throughputs and cost savings. The Directors believe this innovation should facilitate an increase in testing capacity for COVID-19, removing a current bottleneck in sample processing for laboratories. Novacyt expects to have this new extraction technology available to launch in May 2020."

Sounded like a game changer given:
- The absense of any evidence that antobodies give anything other than short term resistance and no proof of immunity
- The fact that other antigen tests that are faster seem to have unfavourable accuracy
- The growing evidence that countries trying to come out of lockdown are seen rises in infection rates
- No chance of a proven vaccine to give long term immunity wiping out the virus in the wild in the next few months.

I think I'll be keeping my holding here until that new variant test is announced as done. I'm certainly not looking forward to the results for a period before all the fun started. I anticipate there will be a statement giving the sales figures for the first 4 months of this year to compare with the last 3 years but will they be able to announce the direct to PCR test this week too.

Given the years of experience here I can't see these prices holding so I have exited for a less substantial loss than I was expecting. EP145 is the paydirt and if (when) it goes back down I may speculatively dip my toe back in as I have written off what I put in here. Anyone of you still holding, i wish you the very best of luck but that me gone for now at only 69% loss over many years since I started here in the Petroleum (water) Creek days. No more good money after bad.