Member Info for Cheapskater

The newsflow is a bit light which sort of makes it easier to track. Most of the RNS since sanctions and suspension are around being unable to pay company issues bonds that have finished or are coming up to finish their terms. The reason for being unable to pay is not because EVR don't have the money though, it's because the banks won't process the payments due to sanctions. What happens to the SP on the back of that once suspension is over is anyone's guess at the moment. If the company credit rating takes a hit there my be a bunch of people dumping stock but since the underlying financials seem to be more than sound then I see the medium term price will be between 2 to 4 times the suspended level but it might not be rising until there is proof of that, e.g. full repayment of outstanding bonds. Following the resumption of dividend payments then we should start to see some stability.

How long the war lasts is a how long is a piece of string question. If energy prices look to remain high into the next winter 2023/24 then I would expect pressure on Ukraine for a deal being done but there are potentially many twists and turns to come before then. Inflation will come down once the prices we have reached are beaten in for 12 months and the wage demands tail off which takes off some of the political pressure but I suspect Biden will want to claim some kind of peace deal before the next US presidential election in Nov 2024 to boost his rating.

To state the obvious, we'll have to wait and see what happens, and in the meantime those in will be stuck in and those out will be watching to see if the time is right to hop aboard after resumption of trading. GLA

I hope not because it's not there yet with 433m more shares to come and almost 1bn in issue by next month. So much for Mint not taking more than 29.9%, that's about 44%. Companies with CLNs are not worth being invested in. Tradable yes, investable no.

I anticipate another RNS in the next 30 days that they will be going to the LSE to apply to change the nominal value to something lower. Any guesses what that will be? Some possible values 0.5p, 0.25p or 0.1p. The lower it is the more indicates that they see a lot more dilution to raise cash before having a monetisable product.....if nobody buys the company in the mean time.

On that note when it reaches close to the next bottom, once all those extra shares are let loose and being disposed of, perhaps one of the partners will see value in the IP of HEMO with respect to the mcap and there may be a bid. Maybe one of them is already chatting to Mint about taking the block of 433m and then making a bid for the rest, then they would already own 44% and would only need another 6ish% to gain control. When the sp is close to 1p how many would sell up if an offer of 3 to 5p came in for their shares to cut losses. So it might be worth a punt at just above 1p for anyone else watching from the side-lines. I think I'll pass.

Yep you asre rtight my bad just ready it again t he RNS is £0.01. Funny way to write it so Mint may lose money on this unless the SP rises but I doubt they will allow another |tranche

Who believes that the minimum conversion price is 1p? I've seen some statement on here that people think that is the case probably from the RNS on 29th Jan where they announced "publication of its Prospectus in relation to the admission of up to 6,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each (the "Ordinary Shares")"

However, the minimum conversion price is defined by this statement in the CLN agreement, "In no event shall the Conversion Price be less than the nominal value of an Ordinary Share."

The nominal value of an Ordinary Share is not 1p, it is 1% of 1p. This is what all the shares have been issued as because that it the nominal value of an Ordinary Share. It is not permitted for a companies shares to be traded below the nominal value, hence the condition in the agreement.

So is 1p the potential bottom? No it is not.

Please don't suggest people average down. Averaging down is a mugs game when you know there are another £8.6m left of the CLN to convert. The last chance to time to sell with a decent amount disappear about when or before the CLN was announced. If you believe in the future of the company and want to ride it up you need to watch from the outside until the CLN is cleared and they don't exercise another chunk. Mint cannot exercise for less than the nominal value of the shares so there is a bottom to this but that bottom is very low. and it will keep heading there without amazing news. I think HEMO do have some good stuff and may well succeed but anyone here today will not see a return on their investment unless the cut their losses and wait for the bottom or as near to is as possible. Averaging down is just throwing good money after bad. As a guide never invest in a company that has a convertible loan note for financing unless that company is already profitable. If you find yourself in one get out at whatever loss you are sitting on because it will only get worse. They just trade the event
timelines if you feel the urge but CLNs are the shareholders enemy. CLN announced SP was between 9p and 9.5p apart from the news of the no-licensing from GlobalCo this has been taken down by the CLN alone.

I am stunned it has gone this low. Compared to the start of the CLN I predictedi it would only go to between 4p and 5p based on the £12m tranche but with the sentiment now it's going to go much lower than here because not event a third of that £12m has been converted. HEMO is a great company but a bad investment. Sorry but the market is rarely this wrong. You might see a multiple rise on news of a successful trial but the trials need funding before they can start/run/finish. Until then the best you can hope for is that one of the partners in one of the candidates sees the mcap at the point that they make a bid for the company as a multiple of that thinking the shareholders are spooked enough to sell. If you know it's heading to 1p or less would you take 5p right now for your shares? I think Eli or other GlobalCo might t be interested in the portfolio at the right price but they are possibly waiting for the right time to make their move and it imight be lower than today's sp.

I moved it to Energy Transfer which should have a lot of upside in the next 10 months but may not stay that long. Half hoping but not expecting they might raise their divi in the next couple of weeksbut even if they don't with US recovery about topics off they will carry more oil and gas through their pipes which means revenue on the up.

No waiting that long. They may need to return to double the divi or paying the same but quarterly for a £10 price. Who knows. Have finished my 11 month run here and now onto new prospect in other recovery area. Was a great run while it lasted. Farewell and good luck to the rest of you.

I have a strong recollection of the situation between the housing price collapse in 89 and the UK joining and then leaving the ERM in 92. I we still had interest rates over 5% until well into the noughties. Anyone who bought property before the 00s and made it through that period should be doing well today in terms of equity in their homes. I was lucky to buy in 96 when my mortgage was 3x my salary. Three years later it was double the price and since then I have never been able to afford my house based on any kind of sensible salary multiple. It's now valued about 13x my salary so I feel for people today who think they will never get on the housing ladder. They are probably right without shared ownership as salaries have clearly not kept pace with house prices over that period. Thanks to the pandemic there is good news for people that work mainly on computer now in that they can buy in Newcastle, or somewhere as cheap, and work remotely for a company in London like someone in my company.

I hope so but what do you base that on and over what timeframe? You wrote it as fact rather than opinion. I anticipate the possibility for a rise as profits return but I can't see that they will just double it in the way they halved it as it gives more wiggle room in an uncertain world.

I'm with HL and they generally put it on your account at the end of the day it was paid. Unless it's a divi from an overseas stock then add 2 days to that.

There is a saying that, "A long term investment is a short term investment that didn't work out." However, it's good to try and work out what the short, medium and long term things are. No point dwelling too long on the unknowns as curve balls get thrown at investors regularly, then it's important to assess the impact quickly and adapt your strategy if needed.

I suspect people looking to be long term from here are looking for HEMO to succeed in at least one area they are currently in. There are quite a few pies with fingers in and any might be commercially successful but trials, without immense government backing, as win the Covid vaccines, take years. Pre-clinical, then Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, submission to FDA/MHRA/EMA/other, etc. things can fail at any point but success at each point gives a boost to the shareprice. Staying to the end is a trial of faith that holdings will not be diluted until the first commercial success to the point that they are not worth as much as when bought, even with the mcap is 10x the point of investment. The company may succeed in more than one area and that is a great thing for mankind but is it a good thing for shareholders here now or looking to buy now for that possible future?

My feeling for medium term people may not be looking for commmercialisation of one or more development streams but the success of one of those milestones and maybe then unload and reload at some point for the next one. They may not stay in medium term but have a medium term view to a potential series or short term positions.

Short termers watch and stay out and try to time the milestone events to avoid being in when dilution strikes and aim to tie up funds for no more than a week or two.

What are the knowns here for development? A deal is supposed to be done in the next couple of weeks with E-L that is an event. Some things should be going into trials but outcomes are not known.

What knowns for dilution? There is £11.35m outstanding of a convertible loan for which the maximum conversion price is 8.4375p that equates to very nearly 135m shares for a company with 455m that's some dilution and any good news on sp could be held back by this factor. It's near certain that other tranches will need to be taken as HEMO are not profitable and until they can self-fund then the CLN and the market will be the source of income size of tranche and the value of conversion is unknown at this point.

What does this mean for the SP in the medium term? There could be another £48m of convertible loan notes executed before the CLN agreement is exhausted. The SP can rise significantly and stay risen only between tranches of the CLN being fully paid off and before the next tranches is taken. The point at which a tranche is taken determines the maximum price of conversion for that tranche and the SP will act as an anchor to a piece of hard to break elastic for any rise above that until paid off.

Does this mean they think they will have aboriginal groups access permission by September? They don't need it for the aerial survey but they will for the seismic. I don't seriously believe they will drill it themselves but doing more prep work might make it a better percentage JV deal for MSMN and almost ready to drill for a quick return for any JV partner. If they can do all that work and it means they can keep the permit another year. I think it will cost many $M to drill there if they expect the same sort of pressures as Santos as it's quite specialised drilling equipment. Interesting though.

What's more interesting in the short term is 0.15p for a £1.5m placing is not as low as I would have expected for a company that had a sub-£5m mcap prior to the placing. If that's been filled then there is some sort of confidence here but 500m 0.25p warrants for 2 years mean until there is very big news it will be a drag on the SP and if they get filled along with other existing warrants with a long life then potentially well over 4 billion shares in issue and there are not funds in this to drill Amadeus. I think I will stay out now because I believe this is not going to multi-bag unless there is massive news on EP155 and a new JV on EP145 as Texas operations may not be big enough to generate a profitable revenue to do more than fund the company until big news breaks and spread across 3.6b shares already that's a lot of lift of mcap to get a decent return.

Good luck everyone but I am removing MSMN from my watch list It was so nearly great so many times but that's it for me. I'll come back for a day or so in case people want to respond but 5 or so years here has been a stress test. Good times on the board though, I'll miss quite a few of you. Ciao.

@dhub in response to "Which idiots are selling at these prices???? Would they still sell if it went to 3p. Unbelievable!!!"

Perhaps they are selling now because they think it might go to 3p and are cutting losses. I believed it would get to where it is now so offloaded at 9.1p when the CLN was announced for that very reason.

The company still has a great portfolio of products in the pipeline but phase 1,2.3 trials generally take years for them all to complete before you can apply for a license any monetise them. Each successful stage completion for each product will give an upward surge in the sp with the successful completion of the first phase 3 usually being the biggest mover. So there is a possibility that HEMO can turn it around with some good news on those lines and I think the long term success of the company is promising as the CLN can provide the funding but while a CLN is in play, dilution is an ever present threat.

In addition remind yourself that the highest price Mint need to convert at for the first tranche is 8.4375p (RNS 3/2) I imagine they want it to go up beyond that to make some good money but that conversion price will be a drag on the SP even without some amazing news until all the or most of that £12m is converted.

If more tranches are taken the the prospects for a big win for shareholders staying the course dwindle. You can do well trading this as this will swing a lot between news propelling the pipeline and news on conversions but holding on long term in the hope of making big money is a strategy many will have given up on. Good luck to everyone that is doing it, I did that elsewhere and lost a most of my investment.

This is not a "lifestyle company" so I am continuing to watch because the products look good and in the CAR-T case without a clinical rival but I remain out until I see an opportunity to dip in when I have some cash available to free up and I will only be trading HEMO from here and not investing for a long haul.

Incidentally only one of my sells showed up, the 3m one. There will be 3 much bigger ones from me showing up at some point as delayed trades for the other 18m I offloaded (5,6,7m) I suspect someone will comment on them but they are not some warrant dumper or other person working in the background. In a way I'm happy that they didn't show before my last trade as it may have held the price up a bit. Never happened to one of my trades before though.

Was hoping for news of higher production from F1 not lower. As a concern about the short term, I have dumped my entire holding on this news for close to what I bought it for. Slightly up from the ISA and slightly more down from the SIPP as of today. Hope to be back when I anticipate some good news if I don't divert those funds somewhere else. Good luck, I usually stop posting on shares I'm not invested in but I will keep an eye out here as I still think the potential is around just perhaps not for a couple of months.

Alas the 200m warrants were at 0.23p. I think the 0.15p ones don't expire until July so we could be looking at a few month months of this before we are allowed to move up if that's the only reason we are bouncing around between 0.16-0.2p. Then the 0.25p ones for December and all that's left apart are a "few" (104m) director warrants which will do very little to dilute the sp further. What we really need is a surge and a trace back as warrants are exercised en masse to get them out of the way and bring the income but unless some major players come along or the reddit pack then I fear we will struggle to break clear until they are expired or exercised. In the mean time which they go largely unexercised there will be fears that anothe r placing will be required also making investors nervous of piling in.

We need to break the current cycle. There is substantial income since the £900k placing in October and I don't think the coffers were dry at that point.:
Welch has been sold US$420k which is now about £300k
Norseman shares sold for AU$208k about £120k
2 notifications of warrants exercised totalling 47.5m shares @0.15p = £71.25k
Falcon 1 has been producing for over 70 days of the last 78 days and 20 days at the end of December was 1096boepd (gas + oil from condensate) Net to MSMN
So a whisker under £500k in cash and some reasonable production revenue should. It's long was to go to look forward to the 6 month financial report, but I think I do look forward to it this time. With another decent drill from the higher percentage leases and this will be our year if we're all still holding. I really thought I was going to see this played with spikes and pull backs but I still have confidence that we're not likely to see more shares issued other than warrant exercises. I think I have enough in here now but if I had cash to flutter I might be tempted to top up in these dips.

They didn't really buy them it's just showing that. They actually awarded themselves the shares in lieu of half the payments under the contracts they awarded themselves and with associated warrants so it was more favourable than the payments they skipped. However, paying them at the time might have seen a bigger placing as the shareprice was about a quarter of what it has been recently so it's possibly for the best. It still shows confidence that they don't appear to have sold them though.

The operator at Arkoma is Inland Oil and Gas. When I hunted them down on the Internet their company website doesn't mention anything about Oklahoma let alone Arkoma. Don't like posting links - inlandoil.net was the site I found, unless there is another company with the same name then maybe there is a new operator. Haven't seen anything on Arkoma for quite a while but I would have expected to have been notified of a change of operator but it looks so unprofessional over there then anything could have happened. If it's Blackstone who MSMN when in with then that relationship ended in a legal wrangle over payments. They raised more cash in a fundraise to say it was to work on stuff with their strategic partner MSMN when MSMN had already done the first few deals with Baja and everything was being refocussed there. I am now estimated Arkoma to be next to worthless as it will take more to get something going than it might produce. It's little more than just a millstone at this point. Anyone who doesn't want MSMN to pay them to take it off their hands should be welcome to it and good riddance. I think even a dead asset must be costing some sort of cash drain no matter how small. Perhaps post pandemic we will see something better there and MSMN can turn it into a sale for a non-negligible sum. Not holding my breath though

Updated the 6 monthly figures. 20 days production at Falcon was more then 10% of all production net to MSMN for the 6 months!

Probably because there was a little mess uo here. When you posted I could see 4 in the count but only one post when logged in. Neither you nor the other posters were in my filter list but I could see all when logged out. Now I can see all when logged in. So now they've sorted that yours appeared with 2 timestamps...assuming you didn't post twice when it didn't appear the first time. Just a little glitch. At least it's here now.