Member Info for Cheapskater

Not sure MSMN will get much of that action. It's not affecting East Texas and Louisianna where Falcon is and sends its gas. Not sure there's much gas at Arkoma. Maybe there'll be some secondary knock-on from Louisianna supplies getting diverted.

That said I very much hope I'm wrong.

I don't. I'll even make a prediction that there will be no JV announcement with a Chinese company in 2021. A few reasons. First Australia has announced they expect their border controls to exist for the rest of the year. Secondly Australia China relations are at an all time low. Thirdly aboriginal groups need to allow access. Not all if those may even change in 2022 so EP145 will be a very slow burner and might need to be JVed with a company already operating in Australia. I'm not factoring it into an expectations.

Don't forget they are counting F1 as part of that 7x so it's double now and could perhaps be 3x when the choke is opened so that doesn't leave much more than a bit over doubling again, which could be just Cinnabar and Galaxie. If they are as big in terms of revenue as F1 then with bigger shares of ownership comes bigger share of revenue (and cost of getting into production) I think they are both expected to be a bit bigger in total production terms than F1 as well though that's probably not necessary to achieve 7x on last year. I will be stunned, in a REALLY NICE way, if we see a 7x increase in mcap though, even if all the warrants are exercised as that would represent a 5-6x increase in sp. I will say with 2x from F1 we did not really see a rise in mcap yet. Fingers crossed it's up a lot by the summer.

Won't be seeing back there for a while unless they restore that level of dividend. Since it was called a reset when it was halved I don't think they intend to restore it back to 10.5c a qtr like it was in Jan 2020. I would like it to rise on expectation of a divi increase later in the year but they will probably wait until losses a fully reversed and the new business model shows some self-sustaining signs. Don't hold your breath. Will be happy to see close to the 375p it reached before the divi cut now.

Indeed and HH gas bouncing between $2.9 and $3 would like to hear about the injection completed and a new flow rate at twice what it was before. Had some warrants exercised giving another £56k in the bank. The other 0.15 warrants should but used up before they expire bringing in another £410k, not including the directors ones. With all that there is no reason why this shouldn't push on from here as only warrants will create dilution now and that's a known event in terms of volume and pricing. All that is without news of another drill bringing stuff out of the ground. :)
I'm running out of patience though. :(

I recommend using the oil price live app on your phone for prices as they swing a lot during the day. It has WTI and HH gas on it. prices updated every 3 seconds and no subscription required.

Actually DanRey your maths is better than Digittt's. They can convert all at once at those levels because if they do then they won't own more than 29.9%. Digittt's maths is based on current issue of 434m shares but these are new shares. 30% of the company if new shares were issued means the 434m would be 70% so 30% is 434/7*3 which is 186m If that's more than $12m worth then it won't be that many but cap is definitely not based on current issue but on the combined. Also they have issued about 7.7m for the fee so it's not even based on 434 but 442 so 30% is about 190m. That all assumes the mcap doesn't stay the same. It doesn't matter anyway as Mint probably get to choose when to convert after a minimum period so they can wait on the sp to be favourable. If it goes high based on good news in the near future they are converting based on 8.4375p and can forward sell or short it knowing they will cover at that price. Basically think if it as a warrant for an amount of money denominated in shares with a maximum price of 8.4375p and if the price goes down they still make 10% and get more stock. It's a win either way for Mint and it's a win for HEMO as they have access to funding. It's only a win for shareholders if they price is sustained at a level where dilution is minimised and the funding enables HEMO to deliver on some of their projects in a way that massively increases mcap. The more dilution the bigger the mcap raise needs to be to get the multibags that people are dreaming of.

Yes, the arrangement fee apparently being pro rated to the tranche being taken changes the dynamics of the CLN quite a bit in a positive way for HEMO. 3m up front could have been quite damaging. It's not quite as bad as I feared. Still happy with my exit and still watching as I still think HEMO is going places but timing will be everything....as always.

Well done pumpky, 10 would have been good for me I got out at a bit over 9.1 when I saw the CLN announcement. Only a 15% profit but it's still profit. I don't think we'll be seeing those prices again. Any guesses on how many shares are going to be issued tomorrow?

I suspect the 200m warrants expiring this month will not be exercised and they price may be being held back by the seller deliberately to prevent them from diluting the sp. If that's the case then we might see it push up in March, perhaps when we get the announcement of the outcome "completion of the current round of detailed technical work" in terms of what is being drilled next. Nerves getting a bit wobbly now.

I absolutely agree. They did say they were planning to increase above 1000mBTU/day once the methanol injection was done. I don't remember if they said that was in progress but it would be good to take advantage of the gas price peak period. I would hope they announce something about having raised output very soon. The slide on Falcon contribution to production in the recent proactive conference only shows an increased contribution from Q3 this year though so I wonder if our timescale expectations are shorter than reality.

@soulac. Two ways to calculate the gas output value from F1, the flow test and the recent statement about it capped to 1000mBTU/day to prevent freezing. There is more detailed info in the flow test result so I'll use that for the calculation but just by quick example. If it is 1000mBTU/d then its 375mBTU/d to MSMN (50% stake and 25% royalties)

The flow test RNS had a volume of 2.78mcf/day and said that was 463boepd. To convert mcf to mBTU (because Henry HUb gas prices where the pipeline goes) you multiply by the number of BTUs in a cubic foot of gas which a quick Google gives at 1037 then divide by 1m so 2.78mcf is 2883mBTU to scale it back to 68boepd simply multiply by 68 and divide by 463. that gives 423mBTU/d at the quoted production rate.

Henry Hub gas prices are quite volatile. In the last month then went from $2.70s to $2.40s and back up to $2.70 They have dropped back to $2.60 today alone at time of writing. Anyway using 423mBTU/day and using the midpoint of HH prices over the last month ($2.55) you get US1080/day for the gas. The gas is being turned up once the methanol injection is done so daily income should be higher if gas prices hold. They are likely to rise in the medium term with Biden refusing permits and new drills on Federal land.

Don't forget the condensate either. You can find prices for that too. It's about 15% less valuable than WTI but there should be about $400-500 a day of value there so with current flow rates and prices it's not far off £1,500/day for F1. A lot lower than your $50*68 calc but very significant nonetheless.

I think I agree there is an error but I didn't agree that you picked up on it correctly. The error appears to be saying the 360m were at 0.15p when they are actually at 0.25p. The rest of your calculations regarding the 0.15p and 0.23p warrants is correct. The total available from warrants in your calculation is therefore missing the £900k that the 360m @0.25p could bring in. They will probably not get exercised until the sp is north of 0.3p though or if it looks like going higher, then they may delay until nearer the expiry date to try and forward sell or short sell them knowing they can get their shares at that price. So long as we see a rise in the price over the next few months there is no need for a placing. Dilution sure but only from warrants so long as they are profitable to the holders. Depending on how many are exercised we will see the number of shares in issue rise from here to up to about 3.5bn. That needs taking into account with valuations of mcap and sp. If SP Angels 0.42p estimates might be based on current issued shared but is the 3x evaluation is reached for Amadeus then I would only take that as mcap as any unexpired warrants will be exercised for sure and we will see the sp up by proportionately less....that's still an sp of a little over 1p and an lot of "what ifs" in between but the point is really that other than known dilution from warrants then placings might become a thing of the past and if people are prepared to stick here for 2, perhaps 3, years then the returns could be 5 fold from here.

Sorry meant £466k by the first week of July, not Feb. The warrants that expire in Feb are above the current sp so probably won't be exercised at these levels.

The issue in October also had 360m warrants at 0.25p. I am surprised only 189m of the 500m 0.15 warrants from the July placing have been exercised. Those will lapse next month and whoever holds them are sitting on free money at the current sp. I feel they will certainly be exercised so long as the SP remains above the warrant price and won't be allowed to lapse. That's about £466k coming in before the end of next month which could fund another drill and free the sp to move up above the 0.23/0.25p warrants. Will have to wait and see.

Bit more background to that. They are therefore the ones that MSMN do all the placings on AIM through so if they say they are "well funded for upcoming drilling commitments" then they are and SP Angel would not be able to say that if there were any current placement plans. Perhaps that will keep the "placing due" brigade in check for a while.

They should have a better idea than most, as SP Angel are MSMN's NOMAD on AIM

That's a good thing for MSMN as it stands. They have enough leases right now for the next few years and it could mean more drill rigs available so more price competition so cheaper to drill and any longer term reduction in supply will ultimately help to support oil price.

Very delayed. It's yesterday morning