Member Info for Cheapskater

Maybe but as usual it's all speculation. New shares will show up in the shares in issue next week and the mcap figure will go up to reflect the extra, that can go both ways. Maybe some more selling from some maybe some more buying from others depending on how it is viewed. Some will be waiting a bit longer so I am expecting a drift for a week or so until closer to flow test results, then some buying from speculators in the build up to that and others waiting for the actual results.

I felt better about MSMN after seeing that interview with AC on Proactive but he did say 2-3 weeks for flow testing. The drill rig needs to be moved off the pad and the service rig put in place to perforate and as it's expected to be oil and gas we should expect to get figures in boepd not bopd. They will also need to do separation and storage installation at the surface. That's usually pretty quick especially when local demand for those services is low so there should be competitive pricing and no delays. Be nice to know the oil/gas split once testing is done but it might have to wait until post optimisation. I'd also like to know if it's the good oil like the Stanley's with a premium price to WTI and if it needs to be pumped or flow naturally. The pipeline nearby and the commercial arrangement in place and gas seeing an upturn since the start of the year, compared to oils massive down turn, should mean steady income with low cost operation once it's hooked up to the pipe.

Are we really on the edge of profitability? Let's hope so as I have been in and out of here generally losing money since petroleum creek. Would be nice to see that money come back with interest.

The SPs have been pretty much linked since the bid announcement. Corporate action became possible to accept on HL at 15:49 yesterday. I accepted for my small holding. Once we get through early November there will be a bit or merging time and a bit of consolidation of corporate functions tasks which might take a few months just due to legal consultation periods but hopefully the work will push on during that period and we should see some positive movement on the SP over the next 6 months. Not expecting a sudden rise once the merger is accepted but perhaps a steadier increase.

Sorry HFB but MSMN is worth more than £2M. The SP now need to be multiplied by current issue plus the placing shares coming on stream next week which make 2.5bn shares., so 13.5p * 2.5bn = approx £3.4M mcap. It's was about that before the placing when the calculation was 0.185p * 1.8bn shares so approx £3.3M. Kind of means the placing was about the right price for where the sp was when it was announced. I just wish it hadn't been so large.

i really don't understand how they time their placings. Sentiment had changed here now money had come in and flow testing could have seen a decent rise to above the 0.23 warrants and now we are looking at heading to the new placing price. I feel I have been robbed again.

Can't think why you thing I would sell at a loss. It's just got back to my re-entry price. I've never seen warrant holders sit on a profit. If this spikes high they will be forward selling their warrants/short selling them and exercising back to return the borrowed shares, however it works....similar mechanisms, different names. I suspect 0.29-0.3 might be the trigger point but if this shoots past it will be a very sharp spike where they get exercised. The 0.15s recently got exercised at 0.19-021 range which dragged it back to 0.16ish. Why would this be any different. These are big investors who forward sold their placing shares and held the warrants in case they make free money and the will have their platforms pre-set to trigger them if they reach the defined threshold. They won't even be looking at MSMN on the day to day let alone the minute to minute. 0.3p would be a 30% gain. I feel pretty confident they won't have it set above that. No point burying heads in the sand and saying it's not happening. That will only be the case if it doesn't hit their threshold. I feel this time MSMN may get that push to new highs that will trigger. My hoping is that it retains enough of the value as new buyers see value here to take up those dumped warrants. I may be wrong but I'm not expecting the rest of this month to be a big payday. However, I do have my fingers crossed as I have 10m shares @0.205p average and £23k of losses from my last foray in here to try to get back with interest. As for corporate profitability, it rather depends on whether F1 flows naturally to the surface like the Stanleys, whether the grade is as good as the Stanleys to get a Brent price instead of a WTI one, or in other words is the margin between lifting and shifting enough to be profitable and then is the volume is high enough to to more than cover the other expenses. Then there's there is it enough to generate re-investment to expand the operation. I feel profitability is just out of reach until POO goes over $50, maybe $55, but surely that's just a matter of waiting for the recovery.

Having said that I'm not sure I'll hang here that long. I want to retire next year so if a decent profit point comes around before my income stocks rise back up then I'll sell or slice then and try not to get greedy for more. If you have the nerve to hold out longer than Afzal Valli then you have bigger/steelier balls than me but best of luck in being happy with whatever you decide.

I'm trying not to get carried away. Lets not forget the warrants at 0.23p. 200m of them were issues in February,. There will be a lot of selling when they get to be profitable which will peg the price back until there are about 2bn shares in issue. They will raise £460k for the company when it happens so i wouldn't expect a dilution other then the warrants becoming shares but once that happens if the price hold at 0.25 p then MSMN will have about £5m mcap which is a huger rise on the £1m it was for years and even a 50% rise on it's current position.

Once that has cleared there is the proposal for new director shares and warrants in lieu of money. If they are approved then post the AGM in November. About 105M shares will be issued between them and another 105M warrants at 0.15p & 0.23p based on the last two issues for general capital. I think at this stage I'd be urging shareholders to vote against that and let them take the cash from the £460k that's coming in because it's only AU$255k which is about £140k and preferable to 210m shares are heavily discounted prices. Need to see the SP at that point though if we're still holding at that point. Check the RNS on 15th Sep for details of the proposal.

All these extras are going to weigh on the SP but if Falcon 1 is a profitable well then I don't see that being an issue much beyond the beginning of next year and 2021 with a recover in oil prices could be an excellent year for those still here.

I'm on HL and it's sometime not been good for me in early morning trading at giving a price in the first 30 mins after opening but later in the day it's been fine. Also if I lower my quantity that sometimes gets a quote because I was going too big but early on it I've noticed it doesn't make a difference. Can be a real pain on the microspikes trying to sell into a rise when no quote comes back. With Halifax I found it was always easy to trade the opposite way of selling into a rise and buying into a fall but in general I switched to HL because they allowed me to go on more shares with my ISA than Halifax other than that I was very happy with Halifax. I still prefer the flexibility of HL though.

hfb, as far as I am aware this is Baja's first well as Stanley's are not operated by them. They do have a lot of experience between them in other oil companies though and it looks like it might be paying off here. I think it's their ability to interpret seismic that seems to be up with the best of them. Let's hope this a long and fruitful relationship for MSMN and their shareholders.

They should give you a yes/no question to respond to perhaps under a heading of something like corporate actions.

Casing is essentially sealing the drill shaft so what ever you get out comes to the surface only from that zone and doesn't leak out to some point on the way up. Completing means perforating the casing at a certain depth for where you intend to extract from. This is the lowest zone first and if that's not satisfactory for some reason (wrong mix of oil/gas or weak oil, etc) then there is a recompletion at the next one up etc until you have the flow rate you want or the whole well is determined uneconomical and gets capped off and left. The early Stanley's when drilled to full depth had too much gas so were recompleted at another level and produced much more satisfactorily. Falcon one went through several zone of typically oil bearing layers so this might follow a similar path and if the first completion is not so good then there will be other depths to recomplete. The wire line logs should indicate the precise depths for any completion and subsequent recompletion. If the first one is good to produce then the logs will give info on how far to drill subsequent wells so they can extract from multiple depths if possible. We are looking for news on the wire logs to that effect for what could be the next lift in SP from the F1 drill. Hopefully, next week some time.

We won't see a quarterly update. MSMN stopped doing those last year. They are six monthly now. It even said as much in the last RNS that they won't be reporting on S4 production again until the next 6 monthly. The last one was in July for Jan to June, so the next one will be reporting on h2 and will not appear until q1 2021. It was on Valentine's day this year so it will likely be close to that.

Aus news is not coming for a long time. No travel to Australia and no site visit until premission is restored so that's q2 2021 and quite possibly later. NT goverment can also be over-ruled by Canbera now as a new law passed and the mood between Australia and China has soured quite a lot in recent months so they may not want them syphoning off their resources.

Falcon 1 is the bit hope for the short term now. Slightly longer term we are looking for a vaccine and a recover in poo then a declaration of corporate profitability.

If none of that works then we need something out of the blue to really shift this. I hope Afzal Valli is still confident with his 130m shares.

I'm with HL for both ISA and SIPP and got a few in each. It's only been around for 3 weeks so perhaps III are not as quick to add new things. Trade volume is low and the price is not moving yet so there may be time especially if nobody else can get in via some platforms.

Nice not to be alone.... :¬)

Bought in to this new fund today as I have been looking to get into sustainable food for a while but many are not IPOed yet. BYND is pretty volatile so I don't know if this will be less so but I see this as a massive growth sector over the next few years. Hopefully this fund will be able to take chunks in companies that then IPO like Just Inc and Impossible Foods, etc. Not in heavy as it's an unknown quantity but I like the idea enough to invest. Fingers crossed it turns out to be a good decision.

@LochinvarLass, That is correct in principle but there are always other factors which impact the SP that it can be more difficult to see, such as the oil price or pending results and speculation. If you compare it to BP on the US markets where it is priced in dollars you should be able to see a more direct correllation of movement with respect the exchange rate. What it noticable is a weak pound = a bigger dividend payout in sterling for the same US currency declaration. You can see this more clearly in dividend history on things that show sterling amounts pre and post the brexit referendum as it was 10c before and after for quite a while but he payout in £ went from 8p a share on nothing else.

If markets think we are heading for a no trade deal with the EU by the end of the year then it's good to be in stocks that are either $ denominated or declaring divis in $ unless you think there will be an sp collapse too.

Well done. I don't think you are moaning like some do when that happens. Whoever, it happens to it just means you got a good price for your purchase as it was below the bid/ask midpoint. Surely that's a good thing.

It often happens when the ask moves up during you placing the trade and getting an offer. LSE have no way of knowing how the trade was initiated so they report blue for above mid, red for below and black when bang on the mid point. The bid and ask are not set the same for all MMs. If you get Level 2 you will be able to see the range of bids and asks where there are upper and lower spreads and the published spread is often the lowest of the bids to the highest of the asks. Not sure it's that useful.

The only good info I got from L2 was the volume quoted so if you went above that you got a negotiated trade so if you want to unload in a hurry like when a dilution hits in a 7am RNS and you want out before 8:05 you learn that 100,0000 means you can for example usually get an offer for 99,999 shares but not for 100,001, 100,000 on the nose is usually okay on the buy not so much on the sell. This is useful while learning the market but longer term you can have a good guess at what those volumes are going to be so I don't pay for L2 any more. I'd just go straight trading a slightly lower number than I think it will be and sometimes you can do the "catch a falling knife" If you are buying small amounts of say, under £10k, then you don't need to worry about it.

Not sure why they would be drilling it for gas. Gas production in the US is relatively stable as shale gas is much cheaper to produce than shale oil. It's why the Stanley's were recompleted to more oil bearing levels when they were producing plenty of gas. Not much profit in gas. Andy Carrol definitely said in a Proactive Interview over a year ago that he thought that F1 and something that was already done were what were expected to see MSMN profitable at a corporate level so I can't imagine this as a gas play. EP145 in Australia is about gas so I hope you are confusing the two.

They have been known to report initial flow and initial choke size a few days after recomploting but that flow is usually higher than the steady state and get optimised over a few weeks to a steady flow. If it's a high rate then sometimes on-site storage needs to get upgraded to allow then not to turn it down while waiting for tankers to take it away. That can take time. Hopefully will be okay news but MSMN only has 16.5% of S1 so it's not massive. It will just be nice to see it producing again. S4 the same percentage.

F1 on the other hand is 50% to MSMN. That's the one we want to see 200+bopd though we might see oil+gas first with too much gas as a few of the Stanley's did if they are looking at multiple pay zones. If so it will need recompleting at a different depth as again the Stanley's were. Any good result out of F1 will prove the field for further wells.

Not sure there's that much funny business. I sold a few GLENs and doubled up here today 2m @ 14:10 after which it ticked up and the 2m @ 14:12. I have no idea what algorithms the MMs use to set the price but when I was on L2 years ago their opinions of bid/ask were often wildly different. Even so I've often doubted the conspiracy theories.

On AIM the MMs are the NOMADs and every company has to have a NOMAD to be on AIM so there's a conflict of interest. It might be interesting to see if MSMN's NOMAD (SP Angel??) does anything consistently different on the bid/ask from other MMs on MSMN but I doubt that information is available to even L2 viewers. If it was I suspect the conspiracy theorists would have a field day adding 1+1 to make anything other than 2 and bend things to fit their narrative.

I used to be disappointed when for example 10 buys doesn't tick it up but 2 or 3 sells sends it down. The shouts go out of “Oh how the MMs are quick to drop it but not raise it” and “their holding it back”, “more buys than sells but it's not moving”, blah, blah. It's just going to be the algorithms. If everyone knew 5 buys would send it up and 5 sells send it lower then we'd just build a trading platform that made 1 big buy followed by 4 little ones then sold up with 1 big sell followed by 4 little ones and then repeat the process to make 0.1 to 1% gains on each cycle. From what I have seen what tends to happen is lot of buys move up the ask but not the bid then when the bid starts to move up the automatic selling starts so it gets dropped faster to prevent it just going completely south then if there are still sells the ask gets dropped. Not always but not untypical. The algorthims used by MMs need to try and avoid volatility or nobody will invest as it can be easily manipulated. Also big spreads in a rising market are good as they prevent buying and selling in short windows unless there are lots of trades so you are more likely to see a slow steady rise, which means trading profits get taken over days and not minutes when the volume is low.

I'm in no way certain that any of the above is correct but it seems about right and unless there are 1000s of actual trades then shares like this move with little ripples. 54 trades today is not going to make the algorithms let it do anything else. Wait for news days or news of news to know when things are going to pick up on the trading volume. We've seen this really shift when that happens. The really good thing here is mcap is 3 times what it has been for the last 3 years when it was fairly steady on the £1m when everything settled after any good or bad news so we're on the up, which we knew if you've been here for years, and therefore probably on the watch lists of quite a few who are ready for some trading but right now dabbling in other stocks until they thing the moment is here. If that’s the case then the movement could be in bigger percentages that it has been in the recent past. I'm hoping so.

The no negative impact from Laura was a bit of a surprise. I was expecting a little drop but the RNS came and it didn't really lift either so this is the price. Not going tochange much this week I feel so I have sold a few shares to liberate funds and bought back in in the hope of a good strike in Falcon 1. Slightly smaller holding than I had before and I am still not thinking this is a certainty but it's looking a sight more promising than when I had a much more significant wedge in here that mostly disappeared. Maybe I'll get my losses back. Hopefully do a bit better than that. At least mcap is 3 times what it was when it was the dilute/slide/dilute slide circle so that means there's more positivity from the market. Let's make money!

I suspect I now waiting for the offer to appear in my corporate actions section on my account then choose to either take it or hope it rises. I'm thinking about accepting at the moment as I think there will be more movement after the take over in the right direction and I have so little % of my portfolio in here that I can sit and see where it goes over the next few months. I think the merger makes total sense. There's been nothing to call between the two companies lately as they have been so intertwined that they were practically working as one company except that all the paperwork was being done twice.