Member Info for Cheapskater

Well now you know his number plate you can clone it and rack up some speeding tickets for him to show how much you care. ;¬)

Results atr next week and surely people aren't buying in for 2019 results. They are going to be terrible. Will have some waffle "forward looking statements" in the results about the exciting things that have happened since 2019 but none of this recent madness was part of the company in 2019. China didn't even acknowlege the coronavirus until late December .

I'm hoping they are buying in due to the so called mega labs going live this week for which NCYT are supplying the PCR antigen tests and anticpating a pick up in sales. Maybe expecting news on the straight to PCR test which could be due any day. But results.....seriously???

The SNG piece was exactly the same piece that was on 10pm news on Sunday. Wasn't expecting much more but a bit would have been nice. Still, roll on June and the results of the trial. I have derisked a bit this morning sold 40% this morning. Planning to sit on the rest and see what happens.

Then very well played to you. I think I would be top slicing a few to protect my investment rather than growing them futher but it's your money and I'm not trying to influence you as you seem to be doing just fine right now :-)

@InvestNI. You might be hanging on e a long time for £2. With 397m shares in issue that would be about £0.8b billion for a company that have never made a profit and likely to issue more shares before it does. I can see a possiblity of it hitting somewhere of 30-50p if the current crisis lingers on and HEMO have something of significant financial value to offer but they are looking distinctly like a bit part as much larger firms are gtting their momentum going now. I hope the work going on here and elsewhere is not over and there is going to be a contribution from some of the small mcaps but NCYT and the like don't come along that often and the euphoria that gave anyone with a COVID-19 RNS a raise it starting to wane with people targetting funds more specifically or spreading themselves hoping one or 2 will become winners. 500k shares in here will set you back £45k at today's price. You may be abl eto average much lower if you have already built a stake but there's a chance you might be throwing money away. Hopefully not as I've got a few quid in here but I'l not risking 10s of k on this. I've spread out over 4 plays in the COVID-19 market space and put fund in to the scale of my risk expectations. Don't wont them all to come good either but here's hoping. HEMO one is my smallest investment of the 4 plays as it's risky and volatile and strictly short term in my view. Best of luck though.

So you're not familiar with what an NDA is then? If they make it public to shareholders then they are in breach. NDAs are generally when deals are being negotiated. After the deal is done the NDAs expire as the outcome materially affects the shareprice so it must be disclosed or too many people inside both companies would be in a closed period. For this reason I think it highly unlikely someone is currently manufacturing and selling under an OEM licence with an NDA. There are almost certainly OEM negotiations going on with one of more companies over terms and quality assurance that are subject to NDA though.

I have often though buying in just to get the dividend is usually a good way to lose money. BP is a share to invest in for the dividend not to trade into. This is because their dividend is almost as certain as death and taxes. So the idea is to get in at the lowest price for many dividends to come not to get in at the last minute to get the current dividend. Prices geenral drop on ex-divi day as it's the first day that buyer are not getting the dividend. Some share often drop a little more than the value of the dividend though not generally BP. Consequently to get more money in dividends over the long term, I tend to invest from or after ex-divi day to get more shares for the same amount of money. More shares now = more dividend returns on future dividends.

Having said that the market is volatile with no consistent sentiment at the moment and it's just best to get the best entry if you are planning being here for the long term. For that scenario, 300p today should be 500p or more some time next year which is a lot more than 20 quarterly divis in capital growth (plus the dividend returns too) so I'm not sure it makes much difference at this time if you buy in before or after ex-divi day. Just get the best entry you can for the long term if that is your purpose.

Are you a commedian? 60k shares on an issue of 150m is not going to register.

The options weren't bought for 4p. It's the share type. The Shares in ODX are called "Omega Diagnostics Group Plc Ord 4P"
That's where the 4p comes from. A bit like BP common stock is called "Bp Plc $0.25"

@Deas999. £54-72m profit on £90m sales is a margin of 150 to 400%. Where do you get your figures from to get that sort of markup? If you are estimating the I suspect you are being somewhat optimistic but if you can back it up then I would be very interested to know.

They might also have been staff light due to isolation and not be as able to work from home as some companies just making things more difficult. I wouldn't read anything negative into it.

dipping <300 I wouldn't be surprised some time this week. Now the results are out the SP might drift more with PoO like usual. There's no bloodbath with the maintenance of the dividend but it was expected so the movement is small. The other thing that will offer support from dropping too early at the moment that ex-divi day is 7th May so expecting a bigger drop than usual on that day but until then maybe a mere droop for a few days and climb to record day before a more significant drop on 7th. Still looking for a good top up day for a long term recovery play but I messed the opportunity in March. I don't expect any new lows in that range now though. Maybe a drop to 270-280 range in May. We'll see, but the pension funds may unload a bit in anticipation on ex-divi or in the last few minutes of record day and that could see a more significant drop for a short while.

Divi maintained as anticipated. No price crash today.

Double blind just means neither the recipient or the administrator know who is getting what. The administrator will only know which preparation numbers relate to active and control but should not know which patient is getting which preparation. The medical team giving the treatment will tally a preparation number to a patient number.

However, it's not necessary to get to the end of the trial to partially unblind. When someone no longer needs treating (dies or perhaps goes onto a ventilator or recovers) then their outcome is reported back to the trial administrator who can report that patient X was taking preparation Y and their outcome was Z. Then they can start to get a fuller picture of efficacy. When it becomes clear you end the trial. If it's unclear you continue until the sampe size is done and unblind then but it's should materialise quite quickly as outcomes are mostly within a couple of weeks. You just need a big enough group to be statistically meaningful as some would recover on their own and some may still die or go onto a ventilator with it. It's not quite as simple as that but that's the general principle of double blinded trials.

@Alin. Yep My bad. I was refering to the date of the RNS https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/launch-of-ce-ivd-marked-novel-coronavirus-test-rs24r94suc5il13.html

Don't get too excited in the expectation of the result because they will be pitiful. This is because they are for last year. The new test was announced as available on 17th Feb this year so will not factor in these results at all.

Before they arrive to put them in perspective, we already know from other RNS this year that sales of the test on 20th March RNS were £8.7M representing 18 months of normal sales. In the RNS 10 days later they were £17.8M which is about double so about 3 years worth of pre-2020 sales. In essence just ignore the results as they are not remotely relevant today. Novacyt has transformed from a small unknown diagnostics company to a very significant player in a global pandemic in the space of 3 months and that pandemic is not going to end this month or next.

Incidentally, that 30th March RNS was the last sales mention and 23 days have passed since. If sales grew £9.1M in 10 days and since then more countries and the WHO have approved the test we should be expecting some very big numbers by the time the next RNS mentioning sales drops on us. I know a lot of you are looking forward to that and what it could do to the sp at least in the short term. There's a lot of price sensitive information that the company are holding onto wrt sales orders. I can't see them keeping a lid of it for too long.

I'm not so sure that no divi is priced in. One of the reasons this has not dropped like a stone today. Poo what much higher than this on the recent drop. BP divi is usually a banker. If it doesn't happen then there will be absolute turmoil in pensions. The panic selling is over but a no-divi call will see a new all time low.

It's possible there will be a cut from last time's $0.105 with some nice blurb about them hanging on to cash sue to the uncertainty at the time with the hint as a possible bigger one off divi later to make up for it if they don't need to spend it. Realistically, they will be looking to build up their portfolio for the recovery as they will be eyeing up distressed assets with strong reserve all the time. I expect a series of acquisitions as this rises like a phoenix as the tide turns.

There is talk of consolidation of the majors too but I'm not sure European compeition rules would allow a BP-Shell merger.

To put everyone straight on the timings. BP publish their financial calendar way ahead and the 1st qtr results and divi will be a 7am RNS on 28th April so not long to wait. I'm on the fence to whether I top up. I'm playing a bit in the coronavirus test and treatment sector at the moment so have't got much spare to play with. If we do see new lows though I'm piling in.

Hoping this is near the bottom now. and didn't want to be out in case it rises but I've only taken 6,000 this time which is less than last time's profit so they are "free shares" but I'd still be annoyed to see it fall much further and not come back. Omens are still quite good over the next 2 or 3 weeks so I think on balance it's better to be in than out at these prices, might be wrong and I'm not going to sweat a few 10s of pennies down if we get another nice RNS later this week to head it back to a fiver. Not sure what can push it beyond except for a biggish OEM manufacturing agreement or two making the test under license in other countries and most of them seem to want their own but I don't think NCYT will be able to satisfy demand making their own.

Shareseeker. A high proportion of those who caught the virus in places where mass community testing has taken place were asymptomatic. If you got it and got over it without symptoms you would be better knowing that than knowing you were are still potentially at risk when you are allowed freedom again.

What if the poticians are not lying and they were following what they keep on saying was "the best medical and scientific advice" and when that advice changed they changed the process? It's the advisors that got it wrong not the politicians, as they know they are not experts in this field. Frankly, based on previous coronavirus spreads and there are a lot, many of them benign for a fatality point of view, it wasn't a given that this was going to be different from a developing herd immunity point of view so the advice was based on assumption as not a lot was known about it...and still isn't.

What if they ordered a lockdown before and outbreak and it didn't occur anywhere else? You would still be calling them a bunch of muppets. Not saying they are not numpties just pointing out they can't win when you judge them in hindsight.

At the time I was quite happy they put measures in place that stopped a lot of companies from just making all their staff redundant before lockdown as it took away a lot of uncertainty and will have saved many people from very serious hardship. By the way the NHS has not collapsed, unlike the services in Italy and Spain, they have so far achieved their main stated objective. There are a number of ways that a collapse might have happened and may still occur.

Too many cases at once for the capacity that people die without getting the care they need. Capacity is ICU beds, ventilators, oxygen and plenty of others.
Falling numbers of staff where it becomes impossible to treat the all sick even if there is physical capacity. That is caused by bad luck, poor PPE supply and not repurposing staff from not urgent areas and not asking people to come back. I'm involved in the last point with inviting people recently left the profession to return for one big push as I work for a healthcare regulator.

So I'm only going to criticise the government and their advisors without hindsight and that is for their inability to recognise the need to ramp up to reliable mass continuous testing at the onset in the UK as it was clear from other countries by that point that the only way you are going to defeat this outbreak is with good data and you don't get that with a damp finger in the air. That's not hindsight it was said at the start. They are still not doing it. Even the promised and expected 100,000 tests a day are still lab based. They need to create mobile labs so they can take testing to communities. Testing is only quick if you can put the swabs in the machines at the point of swabbing. If you need to send them to a lab and then distibute the results instead of <2 hours it's likely >>24 hours by which time if you've rolled back lockdown. The people that go on to develop symptoms are already spreading before you know. It's just not good enough to continue only with a lab based strategy. Get the testing machines into vans or trailers and get them to the communities starting with care homes.