Member Info for Cheapskater

I might be inclined to agree if that was fresh news but that was from 17th October so it hasn't had that effect in the 7½ weeks since it was posted. Feeling sorry for CTP though if Santos are buying other prospects then they can freeze them out for a while and the game changer they were anticipating becomes a drag on them, unless they have a get out clause they can exercise.

That's something MSMN need to be very wary of in JV negotiations. Would be excellent if they can do something on the lines of 18 months to get one drill to production for 40% of the asset then another 12 months to get the second to production for the next 20%. If they have to give up 70% like CTP then 45% for the first and additional 25% for the second on a similar time footing. They can beat the timings to get the larger % earlier or given brief extensions e.g. 4-8 weeks for reasonable delays (approval delays, unpredictable weather, etc) After that it can be co-funded 60/40 or 70/30 for any future work.

While I think we should be higher now too I can see the held low until big news. To me that would be JV agreed or cash flow positive at a corporate level. I can't see the second one happening until earliest middle to late next year in terms of results but I hope for an announcement April of May 2020 that it has been achieved with Falcon 1 and Stanley 4 producing. I still don't think it likely until summer though. JV apparently requires a site visit and it's about to be peask summer in central Aus so that will need to be either this month or maynot be until late Feb but certainly not expecting an announcement about a deal this side of Christmas.

So I can't see a Santa rally on MSMN hopefully not going to touch 0.2 but I can't see it hitting 0.3 either without some surprise news. Here's hoping for nice surprise.

Investment v Trading - my philosophy.

To me investment is when I buy a 30k or more in a stock which I to provide me with a return over time. Like doing my own fund. I look for either consistent dividends and a shareprice history that trades with a narrow range or a stock that has has provided steady growth and I'll keep that money in there for a year or more and not worry about fluctuations and just review performance from one quarterly results to the next.

Trading is any other kind of stock purchase, either short term, gambling on an upcoming event,or in this case, experimental to see if i think it might be worth an investment. Having money in it keeps me watching it more closely but it's only £2.4k so I don't consider it an investment as the potential payday is tiny. I took a punt here when it slid thinking it might be oversold but apparently it wasn't. Oh well I was down a grand, no biggie but I let it ride because it was smaller and I saw potential for it to go back to £10 with reasonable divis. The percentage movement and not following the details make me nervous about upgrading a punt to an investment as it's hard to predict.

So yes, due to volatility I don't consider this an investment stock - for me. It's not advice, just doesn't fit my profile for an investment. I quite like it as a punt though.

I did a similar experiment when they did their big slide down and bought 300 at 793 then then went down again below 500. now back to the buy in but with a modest divi payout. I don't think I'd put too much in here as it seems very volatile but it's an interesting ride so I'll let it play out for longer. The buy back is helping the sp and if it announces a reasonable full year divi then I might end the experiement but it's not an investment stock for me.

Better drum up some support then.

Roll up! Roll up! Black Friday deal on MSMN shares. Heavily discounted to asset value. Get them here.

;¬)

@waver. I have no more info than it in the RNS. Posted some thoughts yesterday comparing it to dating and Facebook relationship status updates. However, since then I have been thinking about it more in terms of potential shareholder value and what's best for holders isn't necessarily what will happen.

I was personally not in favour of a JV because of what has happened with CTP in their JV with Santos and being stalled and out of control of what was their asset and at the mercy of Santos.

A ruthless JV partner could try to do something similar to MSMN, doing enough to fulfill the terms of the permit but having a "reason" not bring it to production which could see MSMN with nothing in terms of income and also with less % and no control so having limited value to any buyer other than the JV partner who could almost dictate a worse outcome for shareholders than if someone were to buy MSMN outright for the asset now. I can't see MSMN selling the asset unless the permit goes with it (extended) and if they did that money would go to the company and not necessarily filter all the way to the shareholders. Sure there would be a premium on the share but it could quickly get frittered away.

So my preference is for the JV partner or someone else to be looking at EP145 data and rather than take a percentage for all the risk of developing it, instead made a bid for the company to take the asset 100% based on what they think they can get out of the ground. It's probably less complicated to buy the company than to buy the asset and strike up a new relationship with NT government over the permit as they could end of with nothing that way. I suspect that is a dream but it's not completely out of the question.

If it comes to a JV then I very much hope that there are conditions and time limits on reaching them or reduced percentages or lapse of partnership if not fulfilled to try and prevent MSMN being in the situation that CTP are in. It's why I posted about the terms of the JV if it comes to fruition. I don't think MSMN have an amazingly strong hand though with the clock ticking on the permit. If not this JV partner then are there other suitors?

For those not familiar with the asset, MSMN website cites calculations were for 12.44trillion cubic feet of recoverable conventional gas. As a guide, 1 cubic foot of methane = 1,015BTU. Aus methane price = about AU$3.5 per million BTUs. 1trillion cf is therefore about AU$3.5bn, or very roughly £2bn plus there's likely helium. Of course it doesn't come out of the ground and into the pipeline for free and even if not all the 12.44tcf is recoverable it's still a very decent asset and should not be given up too cheaply. We holders want more than aour money back. We want our patience justified with a significant payday. Not expecting my top end dream but hoping for something that will put this baby in the pennies in the next 3 months but man I would like to see MSMN bought our for 20-40p while I still hold my

Wait for the JV to be confirmed and what the details are in terms of cost, percentages and conditions. It may come to nothing, it may be to stop some leak from getting out, it may be to encourage a counter bid to try and keep the terms more favourable.

It's not much more than we knew already, in that they were looking for a JV partner. They haven't got one yet but at least someone has come back with a reply. MSMN are still single but in first or second date territory so far and not ready to change MSMN Facebook status to "in a relationship," probably not even "it's complicated" state yet. Let's not jump the gun, too many different outcomes from here. Might bring some speculators on board but let's wait for the terms of any partnership, if any, before we expect there to be any significant rise in the SP.

If confident that this is going to happen then the price fall back might mean top-up time for some but I think I have enough in here for the time being. I don't expect anything to be finalised this month and possibly not next month given Christmas coming up but maybe we'll get a nice Christmas present.

The actual two wells referred to for corporate profitability in the proactive investors interview straight after the investors conference were Falcon1 and the recompletion of Stanley2.

However, S2 recompletion didn't deliver the same level of production as S1 when that was recompleted and Falcon1 is unknown what it might deliver so while it is hoped that they would deliver profitability it's by no means certain.

S4 and F1 if they both deliver a reasonable return might push MSMN over that line so long as there is no collapse in poo but I am not expecting F1 to do it unless MSMN maintains its current percentage and it flows over 100bopd. I think they are close but it's still some months away but not years anymore.

I'm looking forward to some interesting news from China wrt investing in EP145 or MSMN directly over a shorter time period which could have as big or even bigger impact on sp than news of a first profitable quarter

Waver, I'm only writing because someone else did and gave a paltry price for a buyout considering what is supposed to be in the ground. Of course, it's all speculation but whenever MSMN do investor conferences they seem to package the whole presentation like they are looking for someone to take the whole package rather than invest an a share issue. Any serious investor would look at the track history and stay away as it's only speculators like me and probably many on this board and short term traders that would be interested in buying into a company that is funded by issuing more shares. Anyone else will be either looking at it as a buyout opportunity based on NAV or be waiting until it turns a regular profit and be still growing.

Things feel slightly different this time, as the China conference is specifically about NT in Aus rather than the company in general. MSMN need either a partner or a buyer to develop the permit as they can't fund it all themselves in the timescale. It will cost millions to drill on their own. Using the CTP Santos deal as a comparison point, why would a JV partner want to take 70% of a multi-billion asset, when for a fraction of that other 30% they could get 100% of the asset. The pressure Santos have reported via CTP implies there's lots down there so it's not just a possible resource, it's almost certain n only needs to find the right access point(s) Therefore, it seems the time is good for someone to snap up MSMN and get on with Amadeus ahead of Santos and get the stuff out of the ground and into the pipeline that has been built at some expense to get this gas to market. Could all be pie in the sky of course and probably is but no harm hypothecising it. NT government invited MSMN to present. Why? It could be that they don't see Santos as eager to progress until they can squeeze CTP out of their remaining 30% at a knock down price, if that's what they are trying to do and they want to get the area producing into the pipeline, perhaps for competition, perhaps just to make Santos give in the waiting game and say, "Oh well, at least 70% of a lot is better than 100% of too late to market as the gas price has dropped because someone else is supplying the pipe and there's become a surplus to demand.

Who knows what the truth is? There's not much real information coming out of anywhere and so we speculate but silence can sometimes really be golden. I've been in a stock and sold on a small rise and there was silence then a month or two later it was snapped up for lot more. This has a similar feeling and I want to hope it's on but other things have felt similar and were not the case so it's not my expectation, just an outside possibility that I want to be ready for, just in case it happens. I've considered many things here that might happen, including more dilution and seeing my holding shrivel. I keep considering if I am comfortable with my decision to be here. For now I am.

We can speculate a bit on buyout prices but if the EP145 contains what is expected it's a several billion dollar recoverable resource and a 3p a share offer would be valuing the company at £30M when you take the need to buy out the options and warrants as well. That's less than 1% of one asset. The board would not recommend holders sell at that price and I can't see a hostile take over succeeding at that price either. Sure there would be plenty of speculators who would jump at the chance to make a 10 bag but I'm not convinced the PIs own >50% of the company to give someone a controlling interest let alone the % required to force a buy out. Surely the company is worth at least 5% of that one asset's resource and more realistially around 10%. If a low ball offer comes in I'd be tempted to sit on my response until the last possible moment to allow a sensible counter offer. I do hope that the company is up for sale though in the coming months. With the radio silence from the BoD it's one of those hopes and dreams I have been quietly sitting on for the last month as there should be very little coming out if negotiations are ongoing. However, there are plenty of reasons why things can go quiet so it's only a hope. After learning CTP's lessons about putting Santos in charge of everything on their permit and having no real say in the Dukas progress, it would make more sense for MSMN to find a buyer rather than a JV partner to realise shareholder value.

WTF - I see the 3m trade when logged in but not when logged out. I'm a cheap premium user, not L2 but live prices, so it looks like it's to do with the subscription.

In the absense of anything to talk about I feel it's time to try out some haikus. For those that don't know what they are they, simply put they are 17 syllables in lines of 5-7-5 which express something. Considered a Japanese poetic artform in the West they are just a bit of fun. Let me kick off with:

Hello Mosman BoD
We are waiting for some news
Can you deliver?

BoD has been in USA and not a peep. Surely it wasn't a social call. Because there as been no news, there could be something happening behind the scenes. I'm thinking it is potentially significant but not complete and perhaps subject to NDA until finalised. I could speculate endlessly about what it could be eg JV for Welch horizontal, financing to avoid further dilution, another field being negotiated with Baja, sale of Arkoma stake and so on, but I can't think it was just be looking at the ongoing operations. Maybe it will turn out to be nothing because a deal couldn't be done on the right terms but must be something. Anybody else thinking on those lines?

Hi Swetysock,

I've not bothered to attempt any fiscal calculation of boepd to bopd. You need to know the breakdown of oil to gas to have a chance at that but I thought it was all bopd these days S2 is 63.5 bopd since recompletion from the RNS of 31/7 and S3 is 192 bopd. Both are only oil which makes life a little easier

It may not be quite that simple. When is it ever???

Falcon1 was was funded when Xstate were on board. MSMN only needed to pay about 27% of that drill. Now Xstate are gone, they have the money they put in to buy in and to get out US$83k ish but now need to fund 60% of the drill. However, the drill is expected to be cheaper now that Baja have identified using an existing drill site. We do not know how much cheaper. If it's half the price then I would expect MSMN share to still be funded. If it's less cheap then perhaps it isn't. Might be surface equipment there but probably not and that cost has significantly increased to MSMN ast Xstate were going to fnud 33% of that. However, for a few weeks MSMN will be getting a lot of extra cash from poo being up due to Saudi drone strike so I would hope that operationally they should be covered for the near term. I suspect it's touch and go on whether a placing is needed in the next month or two.

They might be close to arraging a loan facility based on the amount of bopd attributable to MSMN as of now. We know they are close to corporate profitability from AC's previous statement that Falcon1 and recompletion of Stan2 was expected to make them so. Stan3 was not included in his statement which is a bonus but at 15% it takes them closer but probably not over the line but it should offset operation expenses. If they need to be profitable to arrange the loan then one last small placing is not unlikely in the next couple of months. However, if they succeed in arranging a loan then I'm not sure there will be the need for any placings in the future if Falcon1 goes to plan with MSMN still having 60% of production.

In other words, "What the hell do I know?" It's just not cut and dried one way or the other. I'm not putting more in at theis stage but if there is a placing I will wait for the SP to
settle then average down.

There would be signs if MSMN were being "swept up" as you put it. I don't see the competition people allowing Santos to take the permit either by forceing MSMN out or by buying MSMN so it would need to be someone else playing the share. If they are sitting and waiting for a permit lapse or Santos/CTP to reveal the goodies before making a play then I suspect there may be multiple takers which should lead to a good price. Today's SP is not anything like the NAV or EP145 with a proven resource either side and the same structure underneath it. We could be entertaining bid well north of 10p for our holdings. Swallowing up small quantities to build up a platform of shares without declaring an interest for more than a few days once 3% exceeded would result in the FCA slamming the brakes on any takeover and/or them being required to compensate shareholders who sold out at these silly levels by which time the world will have woken up and some other player(s) could make a proper offer. If someone is interfering with the permit issuer in NT to stop us getting an extension to the siesmic clause or is paying indigenous groups to not give MSMN permission and it leaked out they could be looking at a multi-billion $ lawsuit for such dodgy activity. MSMN just need to publish a fee for whistle blower with solid evidence for a percentage of the lawsuit and someone would find it irresistable.

Therefore I don't believe that MSMN are being played by big oil and gas companies whatever the conspiracy theorists would have you thinking. Trading platforms are probably aware of the situation and can press thir own trading buttons in milliseconds of solid news. Until then, as much as we might like to think we are big enough to move the SP through the power of our keyboards, we're really quite impotent. We just sit and hope that the market is going to come along and move the share in a favourable direction so we can cash all the while believing/hoping we have made the right choice. I am empathising with everyone's impatience as it feels like we can smell it but the perfume is so strong that it's wafting way ahead of the big news that's wearing it that it has still not turned the corner into view. Hopefully it's perfume anyway.

From the half year report:
"The permit anniversary date on EP 145 is 21 August 2019, which is the due date for completion of 100km of 2D seismic surveys, seismic processing and interpretation and well planning. If the Company has not fulfilled the above obligations, a negotiation with the Northern Territory Department of Primary Industry and Resources may be commenced to extend the period for completion, or the permit relinquished. There can be no certainty that an extension may be granted. Mosman continues to pursue farm-in discussions on EP 145 with potential joint venture partners."

With is already being close of the business day in Northern Territories and there having been no announcement I would expect an update from the businessvery soon. (should have been today) that discussions are ongoing, permit conditions renegoatiated to allow more time for permission to be obtained or the permit relinquished. This is very big news which is SP affecting so the market should be informed or the state of play. Especially with this line in the release 4 weeks ago:
"Whilst there can be no certainty that an extension will be granted, Mosman is optimistic it will be granted, and further announcements will be made as appropriate."

How much cheaper? Xstate were in for up to $200k of the drill cost and up to $150k of the production facilities. MSMN may need to return the $50k up front payment too. So although it's expected to cheaper, is it still funded? 50% cheaper and the costs of the drill are less to MSMN but the surface facilities are probably the same.

As Falcon1 was the well AC specifically mentioned as likely to make MSMN profitable at the corporate level, they are still losing money until then and the unspecified nature of the possible delay means a a fund raise may be needed unless Stanley 3 and 4 are both done and generating the funds to make MSMN profitable, unlikely at the 15%ish level of interest.

Se we have to ask ourselves is a fundraiser likely, if so when and at what price. Hopefully we will see EP145 restructured and Dukas announcement give us a lift so any dilution, if necessary is done from an higher SP. Hopefully, it won't be necessary but if it sees MSMN get to operation profitability then it might be only a short term dip.

Maybe they'll get another farm in partner and avoid the need for funds. I'm fairly neutral overall on the RNS as I see upside (more %income) v downside (more %cost prior to income)

They will need to capture the He so it need to be separated. That will require more stuff at the surface. If it's coming up as mixed gas though, its fairly early to separate as He is a lot lighter than Methane It should be more towards the top of the pocket too so where they complete the drill will help to determine the ratio of what comes to the surface. Intertesting times. Only been a relatively modest rise in CTP SP so far though.

The term "inert gases" would tend mean they have Helium embedded in the fluid too. I doubt it means the other inert gases Neon, Argon, etc.