Member Info for Cheapskater

So without news the rumour mill has gone into overdrive. Let's examine a few
Sudden Illness - would be quite easy to say, if it were true but might want to keep a lid on it until recovery in case it's serious.
Concerns over Covid19 considering where flights in Oz stop to refuel (far east) - would also be easy to say and should have been known in advance.
JV progress - If one or more of the directors presenting needed to be to something with this then they would have to cancel and wouldn't be able to say why due to NDA
Taskeover approach or merger talk - Could also be subject to NDA and could render anything conference related irrelevant
anything else?
Something urgent happening with regards Stanley or Champion which required a presense or a signature
Some other deal being brokered.
Someone been summoned by a legal entity for something which stops them being able to attend.
Other more outrageous speculations are available. The simple answer is we don't know and it's quite probably that it might be a case that we can't be told the real reason, at least not just yet because it is price sensitive.

What we do know is so far the Bid and Ask are the same as they were before the conference and haven't moved so without any solid news, one way or another, the market is neither spooked nor excited by the no show and we are just going to rumour on until we have some actual news or get bored. It's been a fun time reading though so keep the ideas coming, I'm enjoying it.

Most likely:
6 Month production update (looking for a nice uplift here)
Operations Update hopefully with positive news on S4 and F1

Either tomorrow or the day after:
Presentation slides fro tomorrow available on the MSMN website.

I have no expectation of anything else. If there is it will be out of the blue. If it's positive then let's see is some speculatore turn up. If the price shifts north and a bunch of unknowns turn up with unsubstantiated "3p by the end of the week" messages then that's my queue to leave.

This is looking quite promising. Hardly any selling from people that got in <0.22 maybe the hobby traders are not here today.

At a quick glance it looks like 20something million bought today and all but the first above the current bid price so they are stuck here until next week. That many doesn't look like Chinese buying in. It's well under the radar. 25mil is not far off 3% though.

Can't remember a situation like this. 4% spread is very rare and usually when the bid goes up a bit, 5% profit taking happens and it's back down. I'm still over 50% down but wandering wtf is going on without actual news. Speculators ahead of the conference next week perhaps?

@waver. I'm certainly not selling. For one thing I'd hardly get anything back to reinvest at the moment :(

JV is not likely to progress this month while Australia have suspended entry to Chinese citizens during the outbreak. An increase in production would be nice. News on an uplift at S2 where MSMN have a slightly larger % than other Stanleys and S4 spudded and hopefully news of multiple pay zones hit assuming they are not going for a single resevoir. We won't get settled figures on S4 this month.

So Fab Feb, is a stretch but Marching Forward in March would be a possibilitt.

@Wolfiewolf. The reason 81% did nothing is the same reason that is always the case. Fear of dilution. Until MSMN make a corporate profit they have one source of serious funding which is a share issue. Until then, money is not going to pile in here. They are not too far off profitable which is probably why there has been no issue since last May as the drain is much lower because the producing assets are profitable since Strawn was offloaded, but who knows how long the cash is going to last with upcoming commitments for Stanley 4, Falcon 1, EP-145 seismic, all on top of the usual running costs. Forget GEM as a funding source, it's 1.76m at CA$0.09 at the moment, that's about £90k if they could sell it at the current SP. That will keep the lights on for a few months but not going to pay for a project. I think the funds for S1 have been ring fenced but is 16.5% is not going to get too much extra profit unless it's a gusher.

We've not heard a dickie bired out of Baja about Falcon1 which is a possible blessing. It could make the company if it delivers quality oil at a decent flow ate but now xState are out of the running MSMN need to find a new partner or money to fund the full 60% share. Time is ticking and money being used up on running costs AU$10k/month for both JB and AC. No idea on the other director or other costs and travel expenses.

Incidentally, Baja are not the operator at Stanley. MSMN just bought into their share of it alonge with their other projects, hence the minority percentage, so Baja are unproven as far as running a successful drill is concerned. Not sure if that makes me nervous but I have a degree of confidence that Stanley 4 will come in with the existing operator there. I forget their name, but I'm sure someone can fill in the blank.

I'd like the extenuating circumstances in China to give another 6 month extension to EP-145 but I think thy still need to make progress to doing the seismic rather than sitting still hoping ofr a JV to come to the rescue. Maybe they are but withou news, who knows. Risk factor went up yet another notch for me with coronavirus. Definitely not putting any more in here at the moment but I'd also hate to unload at a loss and see some unexpected news. Of course we don't know who the JV talks are with. It's a fair assumption that they are Chinese because it was after the investor conference in China but it's not been disclosed and they may have office/subsidiaries outside China able to do the work because the clock on EP-145 ticks for them too.

I would be expecting a modest increase in production in the last 6 months. Mainly because Stanley 3 was not flowing much in that period and Stanley 1 got shut down for some surface works and brought back on stream around the end of last 6 months or the beginning of this one. If they have been mostly operational for the 6 months in this report I would hope it's gone up. Probably not by anything like the 81% it did last time as I think that would be exceptional, but perhaps somewhere in the 20-40%. Of course there may have been other operational concerns tha reduced production for a time but I'm hopeful for something positive to improve the market perception of MSMNS.

On the other hand for ongoing activity, I'm less expecting any news on the JV in Oz coming to fruition any time soon. If there's been no site visit before Chinese New Year then there won't be one for another couple of months while current travel restrictions are on so I'm pushing my expection of any signing back towards May/June now and MSMN will be running out of time to get the seismic done by August with a partner, let alone done and analysed, so that permit is at risk to me unless they can manage it themselves. They did a fundraise for seismic last May, but is that cash still available? Have they got the indigenous people to agree access? They can't let the permit lapse so I hope one or more of the potential partners is not stuck in China and a deal can be done as soon as possible.

I think MSMN have about 1.7 million GEM shares.

Soulac, MSMN are not the operator at Stanley, they are a bit part player. S4 will not be held back by the operator MSMN would simply be diluted out if they didn't want to proceed at go time. It's a cheap drill with good profit potential and the had the funds put by to do it and it should be ring fenced e.g. in escrow by now for Feb drill schedule.

MSMN not the operator at Falcon either but by holding 60% they will have some sway there with regard to timing but I suspect Baja (the operator) are also ken to be patier patient as they are invested in S4 too. Baja are not the operator at Stanley either.

Agreed, new people and rare posters turning up generally a sign of the share starting to appear on other people's radars. Still not expecting the major news just yet but it's good to be on more watchlists for when it comes. Might see some speculators edging the price up but last trades are 8 consecutive buys and not so much as a tick though. Frustrating....

There has been plenty of news and none of it negative. I think there are people getting impatient in here. There are specifically two pending things that should move the price in a big way.
EP145 JV signed - with details that it's not a giveaway.
Corporate profitability - if higher oil prices are sustained that might only be one more drill but more likely waiting for if Falcon1 delivers.
Something out of the blue could also appear which will shift this, eg a JV on Welch horzontal well(s)*, or perhaps buy out offer which is unlikely once EP145 JV is signed, sale of Arkoma interest for a tidy sum to fund something specific like F1, new Baja acquisition, Welch H1, etc. Could be anything that's good and unexpected.

Until one of those happens then other anticipated news is expected (S4, F1) so not likely to shift the price unless it is unexpectedly good. But the threat of dilution needs to disappear for this to really shift.

* - I'd prefer not to do Welch horzontal well in a JV but at an estimated US$2m per drill MSMN can't currently fund one let alone the projected three but a successful drill will deliver maybe 150-200bopd and might pay back the $2m in 18-24 months. Bank loan would be better but needs profitability first. An alternative that I'd support is if a sizable lift happens on the EP145 JV (>10 bagger) it could allow a decent fund raise to be done to fund Welch H1. 2020 would be a proper turning point then and 2021 could be a highly profitable year for investors as the path to big profitaility would be established - Welch H2/H3 and EP145 turning into a production permit and MSMN profitability in the several millions per year in whatever currency you like.

We'll have to wait and see how sustainable it is. US$5/bbl is worth an extra US$3.5k per week per 100 barrels sold in additional income. That's nice but not going to make a difference unless this is the new normal. Usually these blips are speculative and actual figures usually mean they settle as some countries up their production to take account of the extra revenue and so the price drops back down. I expect a blip unless an actuall middle eastern shooting war breaks out between Iran and anyone that significantly affects supply from the whole region through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf War I saw prices push very high speculatively but by the time the real shooting started prices were already well below the price prior to Saddam invading Kuwait due to raised production elsewhere.

Hopefully MSMN will at least see some improved income for a month or two but we'll see how the situation develops. Iran might attack Saudi oil terminals and production more effectively than the drone flood attack a few months ago as an ally of the US. That could send oil over 100$ and it'll be time to fill up your petrol tanks and any fuel cans you have before it filters through to the forecourts. A sustained rise in poo with more prodcution increases with S4 would be healthy on the balance sheet and we might even see it in the half year report.

Londoner7,
True but it's not a virgin EP. A lot has been done in the past and in the surrounding areas and the geology is known, the quanities might be off but the stuff is there as it's coming out nearby and the same geology is present across the basin. The remainder of the exploration is also there for not about if it is there but how best to get down to it and get it out. JV partner will cetainly be assessing that investors should do likewise or we're just traders going with our gut instinct. If you know you have a prize there it can keep you in for the longer term in the belief that it will payback big time as some point. If you think it's not significant then you look at the rest and if that's not enough then you walk away or just keep it on a watchlist in case things change

That's one of the numbers needed for the calculation but that won't give net value just gross sales value. This stuff does not come out of the ground for free. Unconventional gas, aka tight gas, is much more expensive to produce than conventional which comes up mostly under it's own pressure. Deep lying stuff even more so. as pumping water and sand down a mile is not cheap.

The net value gives an idea for profitability. Many an asset has been walked away from or sold due to being unprofitable despite the still being recoverable quantities there. Remember STEP? That was producing something like 600bopd but it was not really profitable below about $35/bbl oil price. Saudis were pumping oil to drive out competitors and oil hit $20/bbl at one point but was below $30 for a while. That's why it was for sale. If poo had been $60-70 like now there's no way that would have been on the market. Expensive to recover assets require a higher market price. It's important to have an idea of the breakeven point to know whether something has value in the market today, tomorrow and the day after.

Okay done my reasearch. The moratorium on fracking from the Norther Territories Government is still in place so fracking is not something which can currently be done legally. However, it is going to be dropped.

There are a couple of NT goverment websites with all the details. URLs often don't publish here so for people with insomnia I can recommend some reading material.
The enquiry:
https frackinginquiry dot nt dot gov dot au
The response:
https hydraulicfracturing dot nt dot gov dot au

In summary scientific inquiry recommended in 2018 that it could be done safely and the NT government accepted the output of the inquiry and are in the process of implementing the recommendations which means quite a few things including setting up a regulatory framework need to be completed before it is to be permitted.

Progress markers are in the sub-page of the response in /action-items. It's not a very interesting read but it's not an IF, it's a WHEN as much has already been completed.

So that should free up the unconvonventional gas as by the time they are ready to get it out, as the framework to lift the moratorium should be completed by then. That gives it some value but I've no idea how much value. From what I have been reading about very deep gas it's probably in a hot zone which might make it expensive to recover. Fortunately there is so much of it that lower margins can be made up for with higher volumes especially if gas prices increase or it get shipped to China where gas prices seem to be 50% or more higher than in Australia.

I'll try and do some reasearch on deep fracking costs but these things tend to be well guarded by the companies doing them so I might not have anything useful to publish here but I think it could be good exercise to try an monetise the asset in terms of actual profit to calculate a real value to reasses what I think MSMN might be worth. Won't be today and happy for others to have a look.

Trying to rationalise GEM with all the MSMN can recover their investment chatter and using it as part of my decision making to see if a top up is in order.

According to RNSs, on 24/5/2016 MSMN announced they had "invested" CA$400k in GEM @5c each = 8M shares confirmed on 30/8/2016

In the operations update on 7/11/2017 they stated MSMN had 9.6M shares in GEM due to them partating in the CA$3M placing GEM did. I think that was @5c too so that would be an CA$80k cost to MSMN.

On 23/9/2019 GEM shares were consolidated at 10:1 taking that 9.6M down to 960k.

MSMN had given GEM a loan of CA$100k @ 7% interest. CA$50k has come back the rest was in shares so the net amount put in totals CA$530k (400 + 80 + 100 - 50)

I today's announcment, with the extra CA$50k + interest from the loan converted to shares the holding now is reported as 1.76M GEM shares. The current SP of GEM is 6c so that number of shares if they could sell it at that price is is worth CA$105.6k So MSMN are down about CA$424k (-80%)

So without some amazing news GEM is still largely written off and is just a small bankable figure that could keep MSMN ticking over for a few months if they could offload it at something around the current price but not enough to revinvest in assets.

No idea of the current cash position but it does go down while MSMN is not profitable so I am not going to try to add to my holding prior to the EP145 JV annoucement unless there is an issue before then and I'll maybe look to top up lower down. There are a number of outcomes which could avoid a dilutuion, such as selling their stake in some asset of getting another JV for Falcon-1 to replace xState, so I am sitting still with my shares but I feel the risk increasing for a dilution in the coming months. The terms of any JV are critical to me continuing my holding decision. I still feel the main chance of a big win here in the short term would be the company becoming profitable which I am still expecting to be sometime in 2020 as I don't feel a buy out coming but they are largely out of the blue anyway. I can see why the market is uncertain, profitablilty should lead to market confidence which we all know is the main driver for any company's sp.

Nice one, nice1. A fair review of the year. I'd like to add that with the offloading of Strawn in the calendar year the producing assets that MSMN has a finger in I think are all operationally quite profitable. Particularly the Stanleys with it sold to a premium on WTI. Not enough to run corporate expenditure too but not far off. Poo is a a coupld of dollars higher when AC was was asked when for that and his answer was it was expected to be post S2 recompletion and Falcon1 into production. S2 was lower than expected but S3 more thn made up for that shortfall even with a smaller percentage. We're still waiting for F1 but if it is what we hope it to be then 2020 is the year that MSMN could post their 1st profitable qtr. Won't be profitable in h1 because of the expense required to do F1 and they don't tend to produce quarterly results but if that threshold is crossed it should be announced because it is something that seriously affects the SP and it should go to market once it is known.

JV signed with the right terms should give the SP a nice lift too so with those two hoped/expected I feel 2020 is going to be our year. The question for me is now I have enough divi payouts for other share available for an extra 2mil do I jinx it all by buying more.......??? I'm slowly talking myself into it but I have done that before and lost a packet so I'm not over that line just yet. If the JV falls through we could be seeing new all time lows but like I posted earlier, I 'm hoping to regret not topping up.

Here's to a cracking 2020 for the MSMN holders. In the meantime everyone enjoy yourselves over the next couple of weeks because it's not going likely to do much in here for that period.

I'm not filling my boots on that sort of chartist religion post. Only two trades too so I don't feel anyone else is either. You didn't fancy putting your money where your post is then, soulac? :-)

...but I really hope I come to regret not topping up another million or so at these prices.