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Not that it really matters because it has gone but in the 6 month production figures to June 2019 the net to MSMN figure for Strawn is published as 402boe yet in the quarter to 31st March 2019 which is the first half of the same period the net to MSMN was reported as 405boe. By my calculation in the second quarter their net was -3boe. Maybe they pumped it back in the ground to make it more attractive to sell :-)

Sale was reported on 1st July so good luck to Eagle who took it on and good business offloading it to eh MSMN BoD.

0.03 above the ask. Should that not be the close price?

The lack of breakdown is a bit annoying and there are comments on here at the time it was published. I doubt their lifting and shifting costs are that high so I assumed they were combining writedown of capx costs for things like purchasing, drilling and non-maintenance workers with opx. It makes poor reading but I have some rough calculations that ignore caps and estimate opx to give a profitability guide per well/asset depending on breakdown. We've never been given real lifting costs so it's all estimates based on historical news about certain assets. I pretty much concur that they are close to profitability on a day to day basis so I'm happy to be here. Might even acquire some more if I feel in have the spare funds but I'm probably loaded up here enough.

Yeah, I'm hoping for a JV to get things moving. Could result in little to no dilution for a loss of share in the project but there is only a short time to do the drill. If no deal can be arranged in time MSMN need to be ready to go it alone. A JV might not cover 100% of the drill either. I believe Santos are covering all of the cost of the Dukas drill for a percentage of the asset from Central. If successful someone might consider that for us but MSMN have not done that in the past and their template is the Falcon-1 drill JV. Upfront money from the other party and co-costing the drill. Either will do if the upfront money covers most of MSMN's costs and the percentage they give up is not too high. Can be up to 50% of the output of that drill or 25-30% of the whole asset, co-funding further drills, whatever can be agreed.

Yep. I'm lokoing forward to Falcon-1 happening. If it can get 100bopd then the MSMN% there could see a significant uplift in output to the company. Stanley-3 is only 16.5% and Stanley-2 18.5% so even if they give 200bopd between them when fully operational they would give no more to MSMN than Falcon-1 at 100bopd. Champion field is pretty close to Stanley too so hopefully that can do the good things about the Stanleys, i.e. flow without pumpjacks too and sell at a premium to WTI. At that point we should be quids in as far as corporate runing costs are concerned so long as there's no big drop in poo.

I would add that postive coporate cashflow doesn't mean no more fund raisers. It only means no more for operational expenses. They could still happen to raise funds for investment. For example, if no JV happens for Welch Horizontal wells or EP145 post seismic if we get the extension and have the opportunity to drill, then both of those will be expensive and they can't wait for profits to build up to do EP145 drill. I also don't feel corporate cash positive is enough for a big line of credit. They may need to be making a million a year of profit before that happens at a reasonable interest rate so I expect more fund raises in future but they should be only to grow the company rather than to also pay for it to exist. I would be less uphappy about diution to grow the company.

There is a big difference between a renewal and an extension. MSMN are not asking to renew the permit at this point so all that stuff about 5 years, 3-6 months notice in the Ts&Cs that have been posted and the title of this thread doesn't apply here. They are seeking an extension to one of the conditions of the existing permit to allow them more time to obtain the necessary access from indiginous groups. Nothing more than that at this time.

I suspect if the numbers don't sufficiently improve from Stan2 then Corporate prfitability might require a significant strike at Falcon1 or we may need some reasonable numbers off Stan3 too. It still looks pretty good but the extra 11-12 bopd to MSMN from S2 is not going to make much more than a blip of difference. I'm hoping AC isn't gogin to look foolish for saying that but if they post a profiatble 1st half in 2020 then who cares. I didn't expect profitability to appear in any results until then whatever but a little statement saying it was achieved on a day to day basis would be nice before then, say around Christmas time.

Ooh they did push the ask up. Result.

Feeling positive today and it might be my last chance to get shares at 0.3. Was interested to see if it pushed the ask up. Not yet. Better be good news next few weeks as I'm sitting on 6m shares now and I'd like to finally make some money here.

Hi Murmurs, yes things finally do seem like they are on the up. There was an interview with one of the directors posted last month where he was asked the question of how long does he think it wourl be before MSMN were profitable at the corporate level. He replied he was expecting it to be after the steady state flow od Stanley 2 post recompletion and after the 1st Champion area drill, known as Falcon 1 are producig. If that's the case it's possible it could be as early as October/November. There's also Stanley 3 being drilled in there which should also help to achieve that so for those of us that have been here a while the light at the end of the tunnel might just turn out to not be a train coming the other way any more. Feels like the right time, we're just waiting for reality to catch up with expectation. Try not to set you expectations too high based on someof the peolpe that think news is any day now as it's disheartening to start believing the hype. It's more likely to be any week now but that is still good.

So there is some optimistic posting of imminent timeframes but the buying in seems quite light or the anticipation of the market is not that great. Why? Wht is the realistic timeframe for news. There are a couple of bits of known news we want. Dukas drill and Stanley 2 flow rates.

Given that Stanley 1 initial flow rates were very high after recompletion 330bopd then choked to 244bopd but have settled back to 155+ since then. I'm not sure they will want to report on a gusher to 300+bopd which has settled back to half that again. 155 is a fine number for a well that has no pumpjack. It took over 2 months between the announcements of initial to settles on S1, why is anyone expecting a few days after recompletion for steady state for S2. Possibly expect an RNS stating good oil saturation from S2 meaning a successfully commercial recompletion but any more than that in the next month I would be surprised. Might be August before w know the picture. but we might get another quarterly production update across all sites towards the end of this month as the last one was 24th April.

Dukas - Yes we are expecting them to have hit the primary target by about now as this was posted in 21/6, "The estimated timeframe to reach the primary target, the Heavitree formation, is one to two weeks from now assuming no further downtime." So we are 12 days in which is betwen 1 and 2 weeks. However, this is the primary and they also stated their intent to drill on to the secondary target, "The basement below the Heavitree formation is a secondary target and is planned to be evaluated as well." Maybe a pause ans sample for methane and helium and keep going to secondary and sample there. I doubt we'll get much news other than what the samples are at the target areas. We won't see flow rates from Central for a while as I doubt they are putting much infrastructure on the surface until they know what they have got and given the remoteness of Alice Springs it could be weeks to months before we get any concrete numbers on commercial extraction/flow.

Of course I might be wrong but so long as the news is along the direction of success for those any there's nothing negative anywheree else I can envisage a steady movement in the SP. Other bits of news which might therefore drop before settle flow news from either could be spudding of S3 and/or Falcon1. We know that results from those if successful should see the company profitable so lots to look forward to but patience. There may still be time to top up if there is a sell off on or between news. I suspect will look to hold for the next 4 to 6 months but will reassess as news comes and SP moves. Might start making some updated retirement plans.....need to be ready just in case. ;¬)

Thanks for posting that link. So that is the 2 wells for corporate profitability from the horses mouth. He specified it as Stanley 2 recompletion and Falcon in Challenger zone. That's even better than the next 2 wells as Stanley 2 is already drilled. So we've gone from a poor RNS to a conference with some excellent news and, all being well with oil bearing wells, we could be expecting MSMN to post a profitable quarter probably in Q1 next year. Even if Dukas is poor, I'm not selling if profitability is around the corner.

Does sound like good news unless it's a pre-crafted politician style statement i.e. "After the next two wells" is not the same as "As soon as the next two wells are producing then MSMN will be profitable." It's the same as "Not before the next two wells" and can imply that MSMN might be profitable from two more wells but it might also mean "A long time after the next two wells and the four after that"

I would like to think that it is expected that it's as soon as the next two wells are producing but I'm not loading up with more on the basis that MSMN should be funded for 4 wells (S3/4 and Chal1/2) and will be self sustaining before then. It's a positive statement nonetheless and if it's online anywhere directly from Andy or John then it could well lead to some buy ins. Are we seeing the light at the end of the dilution tunnel? Let's hope so.

Happy to be here.....maybe for 4 more wells. ;¬)

Says very little. Nothing about Stanley flow rates, issues with permission for the seismic in EP145 and some drilling expected occur in the next 90 days at Stanley and Champion. EP145 is concerning. It it allows for an extension for the seismic to be done then great if not then the permit could lapse in August. So long as MSMN are seen to be making the right effort to get the permission then I expect an extention should be granted.

If the gas cap goes they probably won't need to recomplete. The gas cap not deleting with S1 was the reason they recompleted that well. They are not geared up on the surface for much gas storage and it's not worth anywhere near as much as oil in the US. In Aus however, gas has a decent value. What we long to hear from the Stanley's is the settled output from the rcompleted S1 and if it still flows without a pumpjack and something approaching 90% oil production or recompletion from S2. I don't believe S3&4 will be spudded until that situation is known and profitable. WTI was around $65 from when it all started flowing. There will be less appetite to get more out of the ground while it has an approx 20% lower value. Not to worry though because Trump will probably bomb Iran in a few weeks and oil will go sky high.

...another week closer to Dukas news. Seen lots of speculating about dates. My 2p is it's late next week at the earliest. More likely the week after. I'm just going to keep my eye out for it every day from Thursday. May not be an RNS on here as it's not MSMN's drill so they are under no obligation to tell the market so it might be informal. Info should drop on central petroleum site first and maybe simulataneous with Santos. Fingers cross it gives us what we are looking for in temrs of an SP boost. Have a nice weekend everyone.

Waver, I was referring to the musings of another poster somewhere down and has been for some time. I would know nothing of anything official but that might be going on as it's all quiet on the MSMN front for a few weeks now. If Dukas looks big in a few weeks, and it's next door, and I think next door on the other side of EP145 is already producing, then it stands to reason that EP145 is sitting on access to a lot of gas and someone with the finances to exploit it might be interested in buying MSMN just to get the permit and crack on with it.

Spary the permit has already been renegotiated and I doubt they would be allowed to extend it withough carrying out the specified work. The terms for keeping it are pretty clear - 100km of new 2d seismic analysed by some date in August this year and the permit is extended for another year beyond that. In the next year a drill needs to have been completed for it to extend again. Of course if that drill hits a commercial supply then the permit gets switched from exploration to production and the other conditions for extension are meaningless. There willl be plenty of takers with cash to throw at it sniffing around if the permit lapses. If it does then it has no asset value to MSMN and someone else can bid for it. This is part of the reason for the fundraise. It was specifically mentioned in the RNS that part of the £750k was for "Costs associated with preparing for the seismic work required at the Amadeus Basin project in NT, Australia." They need to pull their finger out and get it done or there's a risk that nobody invested in MSMN is going to see a positive return on their investment this year and perhaps not the next. If they complete the Seismic in time and Dukas is good then we might see someone making an offer for either EP145 or MSMN itself. Either could see the sp go very high relative to it's current position (with the usual it depends factors)

There's some talk of a possible buy out in the event of a successful Dukas drill. I'm sure many of us would welcome it at the right price, which probably varies for each of us depending on our holdings and averages. I'm probably overthinking it again but I am having mixed feelings of MSMN being taken out by a big player now.

Part of me thinks someone should have taken a largish position already ahead of Dukas1 results as the sp is so low that they could hedge a potential buy offsetting having to pay so big later. However, there's been no holding RNS to suggest this has happened. There's a possibility of them sitting just under 3% with a number of different holders a bit naughy but probably on the right side of legal.

Another possibility is someone could try to disrupt MSMNs chance of getting the seizmic done by August and try to jump on the lapsed EP145 permit rather than spend millions acquiring a company with the high probability of a very profitable asset. It's therefore all the more important that the seizmic gets started and finished in time to prevent that. I suspect that if Dukas is successful then the time a buy out takes could push it beyond August so there's the risk of the permit lapsing and the company becomes next to worthless to them.

So are we expecting a rise in SP if Dukas is a goodun? I certainly hope so. Am I expecting a takeover bid straight away? Probably not. Is it a chance to sell and perhaps reload on a spike? I really have no idea. Am I going to be watching this every day from Monday 16th onwards for the rest of June? You can count on it.

PR02, Stanley 3 and 4 won't be June. Expeting some time in Q3 but Stanley is a consortium of companies. When #2 was to be drilled the operator (not MSMN or Baja) had to get everyone to come up with the funds and those that didn't want to take up their full share got their share paid for by the others hence MSMN having an extra 2% for S2 over S1. MSMN have committed funds to S3&4 therefore they will get a minimum of 16.5% of those wells. After the succes of S1 recompletion I do not forsee any of the other parties not chipping in for S3&4 but if they haven't the funds and scale back some of their percentage then MSMN can maybe pick up another couple of points. Shouldn't cost much and they just earned $50k from Xstate and maybe another $300k in warrants, plus there will be cash from S1&2 sales that it may start funding itself. Good time to be here if it stays this positive. Sooner or later the market will be looking here or perhaps a buyer or more may get interested. Not expecting the market sentiment to shift strongly until MSMN publish a profit though. Surely it's not that far away. Finger crossed.

Oh and to answer your question, I think all the sizes use pump jacks and or electirc sumersible pumps like Arkoma, other than the Stanley which flow under their own pressure as mentioned again in the presentation. Since the Stanleys are cheap to drill and they are cheap producers, I'm keen to see 3 & 4 moving on as quickly as possible. May only get 16.5% of those though as the success of the recompletion of S1 will convince the investor who pulled out of S2 to get back on board for S3/4