Member Info for Cheapskater

Londoner7, your snippet "this has the feeling of a sales package being put together." is the feeling I get from the presentation too. All that shares in issue, options and warrants (which don't actually tally with RNS numbers) does make it look like they are trying to attract a buyer rather than new investors. I've sold shares before only to miss the buyout a few weeks later and it hurts but is it going to happen.....? I need to think of an exit price in case that happens and not worry about a potential buyout unless it comes in before I'm out. I have a feeling a good profit is coming in the next few months.

BB2, Welch is definitely on the backburner for the time being. This is because they costs the horizontal wells at $2m each. That's not the sort of funds that could be raised at the moment, we would see more than a doubling of shares in issue to raise that much at the current SP levels and that's just for one well, not all three. Payback might be more than 3 years depending on oil price and sustained bopd level. Might be never. That's not good business. It's generating good operating profits at the moment so it's worth maintaining but not worth investing in until the SP hits 2p+, which may be soonish if Stanley 1&2 give over 500bopd sustained between them and the consortium press ahead with 3&4.

Challenger I have mentioned that the royalties are high that it needs to be very low cost to drill and operate or very high output to be profitable as current oil price levels otherwise royality payments will stiffle investment. For example if it flows out without a pumpjack like Stanley but only produces 50bopd @$20/bbl lifting but they could raise it to 125bopd with a pumjack but with a lifting cost of $35/bbl then profits remain about the same at $60 WTI because of the 25% royalty and it can take years to pay back the investment but the royalty recipient earns 150% more. They shouldn't be paying to make someone else rich. With 20% royalties and the same levels you get 10% more profit at 50bopd natural and 25% more with 120bopd pumped. If the bopd numbers are a lot bigger then lifting costs get smaller so there's a bigger differential, either way I'd rather be the royalty payee than ther payer. Lets hope that if challenger hits when it's time comes that every well can produce 300+bopd and preferably without a pumpjack.

Champion has a defined strategy now so let's see where it goes good numbers with 35% of the take from two planned wells and this could move up to 3+p is there's no dilution. Shame it won't be before Santos drill results as multiples of 0.45p is not as good as multiples of 2-3p but it's a good backup plan if Santos is not all that it might be.

Looks like good business on the surface is the costs are below the cap. The cost of drilling and production are 33% to Xstrata, 40% to Baja leaving 27% to MSMN and they got at $50k buy in which takes it down further, All for dropping from 60% to 35%. Massive derisk of the cost and not such a massive drop in the reward. I'm happy if it means no dilution at current levels.

I've been trawling through the old RNSs of late and I still haven't seen a royalty percentage for Champion. Maybe it's owned land and no royalties, in which case, I'm glad they are getting it moving.

Yep meant 30th not 29th. This is it slotted in with the two trades either side:
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
30-Apr-19 09:33:37 0.5115 193,800 Sell* 0.51 0.55 991.29
30-Apr-19 09:29:58 0.50 5,000,000 Buy* 0.45 0.50 25.00k
30-Apr-19 09:29:24 0.522 50,000 Sell* 0.51 0.55 261.00
Bid/Ask would't move like that if is was really timed then so it looks like it's misreported in some way. The obvious thing that is wrong is the bid ask as 0.45/0.5 was what was happening at the time of the report at then end of yesterday. My conclusion is that it was a sell. It's below the bid for the time slot because it is so big. Still lookin like a good piece of business at todays prices but it may correspond to that other early morning 5m transaction reported on market close last week which I can't get back to now to see what the price was or the bid/ask of trades around that time. I think that one was a buy and now it's been unloaded because the rise as stalled for the time being.

I'm struggling to see how that 5m transaction could have been a buy. The date for it is 29th April and at that time the trades either side had a bid/ask of 0.51/0.55 which should have made any trade at 0.5 a sell and it's just come up blue because they used the bid/ask at the time it posted yesterday, not the time it was made the day before.

The algorithm LSE uses to denote a buy or a sell is pretty basic. The market records a trade at a certain price. It it is marked on here on anywhere as a sell or a buy is down to where it falls between the bid and ask. Abov ethe mid point it's said to be a buy and blue below the midpoint it's said to be a sell. I think we've all had buys marked as sells. It just means we got a good price through our dealing platform. MMs don't agree on bid and ask, anyone with Level 2 view can see that so the recorded bid/ask on here isn't necessarily the one your deal was made with. This is why trades are displayed incorrectly. i would be better if they were recorded as initiated as a sell or a buy and not just as a trader where there is a seller and a buyer. I wish trades were recorded the way they are made but the answer is they just aren't at the moment so the above/below mid point of what most MMs say is the bid/ask is all we have as an indicator.

The other issue you have with MMs is that they walk bid/ask it down quickly and walk them up slowly. I suspect that's done through an automated algorithm too as you can't expect people to be watching the market and moving thises things up and down. If they raise the bid too fast then automated short term trading platforms and day traders unload at small profit threshold so the bid is dropped back down on a fewer number of sells which stops them from unloading any more, it basically put the brakes on share price volativity and stops too many short term trading plaforrms from making 5 small buys to raise the price and then 1 big sell to reap the reward. That would really be market manipulation. It's volatile enough in here at the moment as it is, but if that were allowed to happen then it would be no fun at all for the manual trading invester.

So take a chill pill and just wait for news and if the SP hits your price point sell out. To me the fundamentals of what is going on with MSMN are good. I'm gambling on bigger numbers from Stanley 1 and a probably recompletion of Stanley 2 in a month or so as the gas saturation in the oile seems a bit high. I'm also hoping for the Santos drill announcing hitting commercial gas and helium from mid May. All that's going to speculatively shift the SP. I'm just patient.

What's next here? I don't want to contemplate Santos not being highly commercial or MSMN going ahead with Challenger (25% royalties is too high) and it's not currently funded. Don't know the royalties at Champion, if it's 20% then that's more normal but also currently unfunded. So I'd like to see an RNS that 0.4p warrants have been execiced in the next week which means funds in to do Champion or whatever is needed to maintain EP145 and something about the choke opened up on S1 and it delivering 600bopd or more. Word is from the Baja website that surface facilities are being upgraded so they are expecting a lot of oil and maybe plenty of gas to come up there so that's a very positive sign.

Spary, Since you are using the gross not net to MSMN figures in your example, when you write you can't see a rise like the Arkoma one from the Stanleys I hope you meant it should be way more impressive.

From the RNS for Stanley
18Q4 total - 4,629
19Q1 total - 3,295
Stanley 1 initial flow rate 330opd choked to 244bopd. By my guess there are 75ish days availble for production in 19Q2 since it started flowing, even if it stays at 244 that's 18,300boe. Doesn't even include Stanley 2 or what happens if more comes out when the choke opens up on S1. The only issue with not achieving big numbers is they have nowhere to store more and can't get it out of the storage tanks into tankers fast enough and have to close the valve while getting more storage and/or more tankers.

Even at the %MSMN have the Stanley's are a game changer for net production numbers to MSMN going forwards. A sixth of that S1 only number is 3,000boe which represents another 50% increase in production over 19Q1. I suspect the total may be closer to a 75% net production increase quarter on quarter and and another, smaller increase in 19Q3 as it gets a whole quarter of production, especially is S2 delivers without needing to re-complete.

We should only expect to get updates about flow rates from the Stanleys as they open the choke on Stanley 1 and allow it to settle and if the gas cap reduces on Stanley 2 and they can open the choke there but in general production updates are every 6 months as put at the end of the RNS you quoted. The reason this quarterly was published is because it gives a basis for comparison with the new flow rates from Stanley's as it's all before they were live in their current form. Stanley 1 was at another target zone for those production figures and was recompleted to the current depth in March but not opened up to production until the drill from Stanley 2 was completed.

I think Stanley 1 has exceeded expectation. Stanley 2 is a bit like Stanley 1 initial at the moment. Hopefully a gas cap that will go over the next few weeks and the flow can be adjusted. It not then it's deep enough to recomplete at other depths so they can get the rates up. Fortunately the gas won't be wasted as they surface facilties allow separation and storage to sale as that was done for Stanley 1 initially. There's no facility for large scale gas production though so if it doesn't deplete I feel another recompletion as per Stanley 1. It's cheap to do and look at the outcome for production, wow.

I strongly suspect some of all of the 70m 0.4p warrants were bring forward sold for a nice 15-30% profit. That may be what is holding the SP down. Not sure the directors would be doing that as it must be a closed period but they have more warrants at that price. If it is warrants then I would expect another RNS about them being exercised. It's up to £280k income to MSMN if they do but it takes the shares in issue to just over 700m. Not sure how much it will be to drill Challenger and or Champion or do the 100km of 2D seismic at EP145 but it's a fund raise of sorts and could reduce the need for a near term share issue. Hoping the warrants clear and we see better flow rates from Stanley 2 as the gas cap decreases as that could unleash the SP towards the penny plus range over the next couple of weeks especially with anticipation of good Santos news next month. Glad to be here.

The thing I like the most about the recent ProactiveInvestors interview with JB is he points out in it something that has not appeared in the RNS feed. That is Stanley 2 might flow out of the ground without the need for a pump jack or water injection which will dramatically lower the extraction costs to basically just oil/gas separation and storage until sale. Much lower maintenance costs too. This could make the site quite profitable on a lower bopd threshold or a lower oil price. For example, producers are liable for all extraction costs but due to typical royalties of 20% on sales they only get 80% of the actual production. So every $1 saved on production costs gives $1.25 more profit on sales to the producers. So if it comes out of the ground on it's own at say $18/bbl instead of $30 then that's $15/bbl of extra profit whatever the taxes. Still need to know the numbers per well as MSMN have diffrent percentages but I'll model my calculations on the lower lifting cost for Stanley unless it is announced otherwise.

Gavino, EPIC Code "MSMN" on market AIM on London Stock Exchange. That's all there is to it. So long as you have an account that can deal in London securities then it should be there.

Waver, I sold nothing. This week's activity hardly consitutes a spike. I'm sitting on 5m at av 0.6p Could have made 20% on the last million I bought but that's only £600. My portfolio wobbles by that much daily so I'm not going to cream my jeans on a wobble. Wake me up with there's an extra zero on the percentage as I'm not in this to make pennies. We have a bunch of new faces on here but it's not the crowd of idiots who turn up say "5p next week" to try and get the unresearched to keep propping up the price while they are selling at their day profit.

I have to say I'm a little disappointed by the RNS when we were expecting better news than an expectation of 100bopd from the example they give. And the 53k bbl over 4 years is about 38bopd average with no rest/repair days. It's hardly the several100s of barrels a day per well and with MSMN percentage at 16.5/18.5% Stanley 1/2 and 20% royalties off that I'm really hoping this doesn't turn out to be another Arkoma. We were getting more than that from Stanley 1 before recompletion so the numbers had better be improved or the market will not have any reason to get faith back in the company. Haven't read the links to see what's being said about Stanley 3/4 and Challenger/Champion. If they do one of the Cha's then we have bigger costs and they are not funded from existing funds so prepared for an issue of equity. Not sure we'll see on until the taps are opened at the Stanley's. I also don't wan't concentrate of the others at the expense of Stanley 2/3 as if Nadsoil want to go ahead and we can;t then we get cut out and so far the Stanley's have been cheap to drill so returns can be lower per well if they can share surface some infrastructure, such as separation and storage facilities. The Cha's are a long way away from Stanley.

In essence I'm I a holding pattern until there is more clarity. also hoping for good news from Santos which might trickle down to MSMN in a way the market recognises but my short term hopes may have just become more aspirational than realisable.

According to the half year report Welch made $83,996 profit in 6 months when oil prices were higher so I suspect you'll need to revise your $90k a month a tad. Same goes for 75bopd at Stanley giving 200k a month. Revenue is not profit the stuff doesn't come out of the ground for free. It's heading in the right direction but let's not get carried away.

Revenue $521,326
Cost of sales $482,849
Gross profit $38,477

I'd like to know the breakdown of "Cost of Sales" I'm thinking it includes some portion of the ESP installs at Arkoma and extra repairs above normal maintenance operations at Strawn. I hope this is the case because Strawn made a loss and Arkoma was only just profitable. Welch was quite strong and not too far from my spreadsheet which gives me more confidence that we could get close to profitability with an extra 100bopd especially if the scale of production keeps the lifting costs lower than other assets. Strawn needs offloading and Arkoma looks to be too weak to be worth doing anything with it and should probably go too. So let's see the numbers in the 100s of bopd with Stanleys 1 to 4 and see this baby take off to bluer skies.

Hi Sweatysock,

I'm all for progressive announcments too. I'm not ruling out further dilution either and I thnk a lot of investors are put off by a company moving in the right direction but still not making a profit and declaring in the results that they are still using shareholders to fund the company. As you allude to SP is all about market sentiment. So until that shifts to positive in any great way I'm expecting a number of SP spikes and settle downs along the way as this stays a traders share and overtime we build up the number of real investors. For now I'll settle for spiking and settle higher than pre-spike instead of spiking and settling lower. I'm not sure I have the right stuff to try and sell on the spikes and try to reload lower down so I'm probably here for another 18 months if all goes as planned. I'm holding 5m shares now and am really hoping for this to push on to the mid single pennies but I've been stung on AIM a couple of times including here. I think I know the pattern now and if I spot it early then I might bail but I'd really like to retire and somewhere between 4p and 6p might do me fine. Bring on the positive vibes....

I think a few people are getting confused by the AIM mantra of buy on rumour, sell on news and forgot to buy on rumour but still sold on news. Not really news anyway, it's more of a rumour starter.

I can see the impatient on here are posting numbers that won't likely be achieved in the first production announcement and possibly not the second. Flow tests can take take weeks to tweak up the output to find the optimal production. Then there can also be limitations with storage and sales flow once the stuff comes out of the ground to get it offsite to allow more to be pumped. So although the pumpjacks and below might be capable of producing several hundred barrels per day, I suspect the surface storage capacity may not allow that to happen at present except to test peak flow. There's no point updating the surface storage until they realise they can "turn it up to 11" in case it's a wasted investment. Fingers crossed it's good for what was coming out of Stanley 1 at the lower depth and chunk more, i.e. enough to do serious flow testing but then they may need 10s of thousands of barrel capacity up top not to be squeezed in sales as we need to shift it or stop production due to insufficient storage capacity. All this and past experience is probably holding back the spike for now. If we hear peak rates for each in the 100s bopd in the next 2-3 months then we could be onto a winner and roll on Stanley 3 & 4 in mid-summer.

In other news indications are the 3D seismic is done for Challenger (already was for Champion) so it's possible one of those may be brought onstream this year. Same caveat for surface equipment applies for those too and they might not be successful with the drilling or the flow rates. However, I am expecting the results this time next year to be showing an operating profit for at least the last six months of 2019. Should see the SP measured in pennies rather than fractions by then if all goes well.

500bopd in 9 months time feels rather optimistic. I'd rather count the chickens as they hatch. If Stanley 1 recompletion achieves a similar volume to the project for Stanley 2, which I believe was 300bopd, then Stanley will be contibuting av 17.5% of 600bopd = 103 bopd to MSMN along with about 70 bopd from other assests then thats a healthy 170-180 before 20ish% royalties. If that happens then we A quick operating cost/profit calc with my usual assumptions of lift costs and operating days with WTI staying around $60 brings MSMN a daily operations profit of about $3,400 a day or $1.16m a year. All this is subject o massive fluctuations with controlling lifting costs and WTI price so it's not must better than a wet finger in the air for accuracy but it does influence my investment decisions which is why I took on another 1m shares yesterday.

Add Stanley 3/4 which could be good to go this year with maybe another 100bopd to MSMN (80ish net) That's very healthy. Not sure they have the bandwidth to push for too much more in 2019 but with 3&4 producting that $1.16m could rise to $1.8m and that means the company can push to do multiple things. It should also mean the end of the threat of further dilution. Of course we need to get the income first but once the dilution cloud is lifted there won't be much to hold the SP down as sentiment will have changed and MSMN should have turned a corner if the Stanleys are as good as expected. I think this will be a very traded share in the next couple of months. It looks very cheap right now if these assets come good. I'm not even bothering to factor in Oz as that's rather intangible at the moment for me. Just sticking with the knowns.

Note that once the operations profits come in, Welch horizontal wells might be affordable which is a 100% MSMN owned asset and has the potential to unlock an extra few hundred bopd but that's probably pushed back to 2020 earliest now due to what is happening with Baja who MSMN have taken a large chunk of assets from.

Nice imagination there. I suspect there are plenty of scenarios. More likely one of the more minor investors chose not to proceed with involvement in Stanley 2/3 and 2% was MSMNs cut when it was divided up between the other investors who chose to proceed.....but I prefer your interpretation for the MSMN movie script.

Waver, you talking to me? There's not much confidence here at the moment. Needs to get oil early with Stanley 2 and more with 3 for the sentiment to change, I think. We've had 2 of the downward pressure things I listed in an earlier post that could hold it back. No news that the gas cap in Stanley 1 has gone down. In fact hardly any real news at all. So it's heading nowhere until news. Good results from Stanley 2/3 with 70+bopd to MSMN and we should go north of 1p. Not far but it could hold on to some good gains but not without good news. Over enthusiasm on any rise from people who haven't been following this could take it higher but any rise will be sold into. There's also warrants and options which could hold this back to 0.4p hoping for a spike.

But this isn't one of the lost promises as it's not theirs. MSMN are not the operator of Stanley not even co-operator, just an investor passing on information to shareholders about what they operator is telling them. They are a significant shareholder and have influence on the decision making at a strategic level but not on the day to day operations.