Member Info for Cheapskater

Looks like someone has access to a flash trading platform to have all those trades on the same second. They don't seem to realise it's not just the number of trades that the MM algorithms use to determine changes in bid/ask. They need to put their platform across multiple sources and start playing with real sums of money so actually shift the numbers enough to do a large reverse trade. Of course that's somewhat illegal market manipulation but it's interesting to see MSMN targetted....if that's what is happening. It means it's on the radar.

From what I am seeing the number of trades per day has picked up in the last couple of weeks so it would appear that there is interest in the shares more than just any remaining placing shares being dropped as I think that would weigh more on the SP and the number of trades would be lower and the volume per trade higher. It feels to me more like it's being traded a bit as the swings have been in the 10-30% over a few days so people selling into a rise they bought a week and bit ago and others looking at the volume and reading in a bit and taking up the slack of a share that's heading in the right direction. Hence we are at a higher sp than at the start of the year. How many of those buys are going to be held onto is anyone's guess but if it keeps pushing us up I'm content.

What placing are you referirng to steakpie? The last one was in October. The issue in December was straight to directors in lieu of pay. I doubt they are trading them as it must be a closed period while they are in discussions about the next drill.

....penny tomorrow brigade are starting to arrive. I'm surprised as we haven't had a spike. Perhaps that's why we only have a couple of them so far. Trading volume on the up though and that can attract attention. Hopefully more will come and see what is going on here and we'll see it move up. We will need news flow for the price not to drift downwards and people lose interest. SP is edging ever closer to warrants but they will only be exercised at a profit so not expecting an inflow of cash for stock.

If Welch was worth US$420k to someone then I estimate Arkoma is probably worth US$200 +/- 50k for 27% of something that produces double (when it produces) but I would gladly see shot of it for much less as I think it's a distraction but any revenue from there is a welcome top up to the kitty. Would like to hear that they are in talks with a possible buyer and then that it is sold while we wait for news of next drill(s).

I'm really not expecting to hear anything about Aus for a while EP155 maybe but EP145 probably not until late in the year unless they are looking for potential partners already in Australia as the news this week is that there will be Covid border controls in place perhaps for the whole of 2021 however any positive news there would prick up a few more ears and we'll see this move. Nice week so far though.

Not strictly true. I do know why the last trade listing by time but normally within an hour of close they correct the close price to the midpoint of the bid ask. What i meant to convey was I am surprised that convention wasn't followed last night.

Yes. If we look back at the bid/ask at close yesterday it should have closed at 0.19, no idea why it was quoted at 0.209 outside the range. Technically with the bid moved up to 0.19 we are 0.005 up this at the moment not down 0.14. Made my portfolio look nice overnight though.

Absolutely steakpie :-) Although I'm sure that $90k is long gone it's still attributable to the asset as so it was US$510k over 4 months plus whatever the sales for the stuff that came out of the ground in that period. All good. The SP is moving towards the 0.23p warrants and although I expect some profit taking on a 20% rise by the people trading this share I think we will sawtooth right to that level at some point this month. Another bit of good news would be required to push it to the point where they and the other 0.25p warrants get exercised an then we should be able to say good bye to the placing proposers. Until then we'll need to put up with them but todays money plus last weeks US$160k for Norseman shares and whatever is left of the £900k placement from October the balance should be good enough to see perhaps 2 drills. Although the the percentage of Cinnabar is going to make that one quite expensive for MSMN but if it's a good one then the revenue share 85% before royalties. Cinnabar is part of Challenger and I think royalties are 27% which is high so it needs to be another low running cost operation to be economic.

Incidentally I've taken a look at East Texas Condensate pricing just to check and it's lower than WTI. It's about $44/bbl spot price on oilmonster.com but it's essentially a free by-product of the gas at F1 so it's pretty much all revenue on sale.

SP got to rise for warrants to be exercised though. He said that so they are looking for possible farm outs as alternatives to keep costs down and that they are not intending to do a placing, but he would say that. It slightly means cash is not available to fund the year so unless they generate more revenue from assets either through sale or production then they need to reduce the costs of some of the drills through farm outs or they'll have to go to the market for a slice if the SP doesn't rise above the warrant prices to make them profitable to exercise.

That's all speculative though the only thing i picked up on that we haven't heard was that there is scope to open the taps more at Falcon 1.

Argh the agony of listening to Andy droning on....losing the will to live......

Starting MSMN now. But footie has kicked off so I'll probably not going to pay much attention.

It's started. 4 companies on before MSMN. So MSMN presentation should start at around 19:40 as it's 15 minute presentation followed by 10 min Q&A for each company

It's highly unlikely there will will be any news tonight that isn't in the public domain already. There will be no big reveal and I'm sure whoever it there will be quite guarded about their answers to questions which had to be submitted in advance so they will probably have had a chance to prepare their answers and not answer questions that would require answers not in the public domain. We'll see. I'm hoping for some more personal insight into the plans for quarterly drills they have outlined in today's RNS, and perhaps a comment on finances. EP145 is going nowhere for another year. EP155 could potentially move this year as I think access permission from aboriginal groups was only an issue for EP145 and that one also has issues with the Aus/China relationship being rather sour.

Okay so that seems to have disappointed a few people. I'll admit that i am one of them but I was not expecting the headline figures from the initial flow tests. They would always have been unsustainable but I was hope for a bit more than a third. Anyway it is what it is and it still reflects a big uplift in revenue. What else did the RNS reveal or fail to reveal? It revealed the high level of royalties at champion 24-25%. It did not reveal how much oil at F1, is it proportionate to the amount of gas, i.e. about 1/3 of 80bopd? If so after royalties and MSMN percentage it is net 10bopd not big but still a revenue of US$500/day on top of the gas which I estimate now to be about US$900/day based on current Henry Hub prices. I suspect some other costs to come out of that but the figures are now looking between US$300k-400k per annum. Not the earth shattering news we wanted but a big leap in the right direction.

I wonder if the question that was asked of Andy Carroll in a 2019 Proactive interview will be repeated or reminded? That question was how many drills to corporate profitability and rather than dodging the question he relied the recompletion of one of the Stanley wells an Falcon 1. I suspect he might want to revise his answer to not there yet but if this is meeting his expectation and oil/gas prices are not that far different from when he was asked previously perhaps the real answer is close.

The last bit that seems to be confusing people was what "other funding alternatives" means. In the past this would have meant a share issue. It still might still but they are clearly hoping the price will rise to a point where warrants are exercised rather than having to do a share issue and still have the warrant's hanging over them. The warrants being exercised would raise about £1.5m or more (US$2m) It's still a dilution but it's a known event.

If it finishes in time for me to do so before Arsenal v Crystal Palace kicks off at 8pm. However, I expect it will be available on Proactiveinverstors website shortly after in the MSMN section and anything newsworthy will either be in an RNS tomorrow or it will be in one before markets open on Friday morning.

Yep, I'm registered.

Than my last post. That's Welch sale US$420k closing on Friday and Norseman AU$208k (US$160k) in the bank. Galaxie 1 drill was already funded and hopefully news on a highly profitable gas revenue from Falcon 1. I don't think even the most pessimistic of people would be expecting there to be any placement for operating capital soon, so it must be time for lift-off and those warrants to get exercised over the next few weeks. Signs are good but my nerves are starting to shred.....

I'm pretty sure it's not a profit.

They bought shares for a fair chunk of change (CAD$400k) in May 2017 then felt forced to take another slice of a share issue (CAD$80k) in Feb 2017 and then saw the old BoD, in what was then GEM, fail to register accounts and saw the shares suspended on TSX. JB got together with other holders to force out the BoD and get the accounts done and have the suspension lifted. Gave them a loan of CAD$100k. Then got the company position to rise and did a couple of renamings but the investment or CAD$480k (or a bit over AU$500k at the time) was not recovered by this sale and the previous sale nor was half of the loan which was put into additional shares.

I'm not dissing the recovery from a virtually written off asset. That has been quite remarkable but the investment was the wrong decision made back the time when whatever MSMN tried turned to out be a failure (Petroleum Creek, STEP, Pine Mills) The investment was made from the placing that was done to finance STEP. As was Hemisphere Energy which was also not a great investment but easier to get out of for a tiny profit. I think they needed to look like they were doing something with the millions raised.

It wasn't until after Strawn which got them started as a producer that the successes started to happen with Welch and Arkoma having degrees of success. The tie in with Baja was what really got them moving towards profitability. Now they have a long track record of success but it's been a long and painful road for some of us. GEM/Norseman being a legacy of that pain and I' glad that is now behind us. Many of us are still here and still optimistic of a good return.

Yep that's pretty much the calculation. There's just over a thousand BTUs in a cubic foot of natural gas. The gas is being piped into the pipeline system that goes to Henry Hub in Louisiana which is the main quoted price for gas in the US so easy to get the current rate. It wobbled about over last year between 1.7 and 3$/mBTU with short spikes. Average was about 2.3$ although last year could not be considered a normal year. The 5 year average is closer to 2.7$.mBTU. We don't know all the overheads or what the % cut on the price for the pipeline carrier, etc so I am basing it on a round figure to MSMN of about US$3k/day based on the flow test rates. We don't know the steady flow rates either. Gas flow is generally lower maintenance than oil so it should operated more than the 250 days a year I use for estimating oil revenue so that's why I put this at about US$1m/yr to MSMN based on about $3k a day * over 300 days a year and I don't take the 40% extra for the oil into account to allow for extra downtime or other costs / reduction in flow rates over the early operating period....and my OCD likes the US$1m/year more than anything else :-)

@Torreaguas. F1 is mostly gas not oil so probably closer to $1m/yr after royalties and other overheads. The oil from F1 was 80bopd (40 to MSMN) before royalties and overheads. Not insignificant but no where near as big. Maybe $500k a year post overheads probably closer to $400k. I wouldn't add them together though. The oil offsets the times the gas won't produce due to maintenance or the price slacks off or the pressure decreases.... Still over 100% more revenue that the rest of production together though so we are waiting for the market to wake up.

I'm not sure where the new that there will be a Proactive interview next week but if that's the case then it will be because there is news planned for Monday or Tuesday so I am hoping Monday morning we will see the settled flow rate and revenue for 4 weeks of squirting gas into the pipeline and the interview talking about how transformational it is for MSMN. Looking forward to next week and that may be why the buys are here today in anticipation.